Post by mhbruin on Jan 28, 2024 17:55:13 GMT -8
When we last met the Beavers, the Bruins were picking up their first road win of the season 69-62, Since then we have picked up two more of them. The Beavers responded by beating the Trojans. Who doesn't these days? Then they lost 5 straight before beating the two Arizona schools.
In the earlier preview, I called Oregon State the worst team in the Pac-12. I may have been wrong. They are in 11th place in the league, but they still are the worst team in the league according to KenPom and Torvick.
However, as Arizona found out, bad teams can be dangerous. Especially when they shoot 60% from the arc.
METRICS
The computers predict a UCLA win by 5 to 9 points.
Oregon State has a better record than we do against a comparable schedule. But the computers all think we are the better team. Why? Because the Beavers aren't good at anything. We are good at defense.
They also tend to lose badly against good teams, while we are often competitive.
RECORDS
Oregon State hasn't won a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game ... EXCEPT for a win at the buzzer over Arizona.
In most of their Quad 1 losses, they have lost badly. They lost by 33, 27, 21, 16, and 14.
Has Oregon State played a super difficult non-conference schedule? No. But you have to give the Beavers credit that they’re undefeated in Quad 4 games. Last season they lost two of them.
However, they didn't exactly run through their Quad 4 schdule. Oregon State needed double overtime to beat both #254 Troy and #301 Cal Poly at home. App State (who are actually pretty good) also took them to OT. They beat #279 UTSA by 1 point. While "the cardiac Beavers" doesn't have a good ring to it, they have had a lot of close wins.
This will be a Quad 2 game for the Beavers if they lose, but a Quad 3 game if they win. If they win our NET ranking gets worse, and if they lose our NET ranking gets better. Talk about a lose-lose.
The Beavers aren't exactly road warriors. They have yet to win a game outside of Beasley. Of course, Cal hadn't won a game away from home until they came to Pauley, and they haven't won one since. And we haven't exactly been great at defending Wooden Court. Remember CSUN? Yuk!
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON STATE'S DEFENSE
The Beavers will mix defense with several zones and man. They will press occasionally, and they have several different presses.
OSU isn't excellent at anything on defense. They are pretty good at defending the three. They are pretty bad at protecting their defensive board.
Meanwhile we are pretty bad at everything. Mostly we are bad at shooting, and we turn the ball over quite a bit. We had a streak of three pretty good shooting games lately, but we were back to our bad shooting ways again vs USC.
Or was the SC game such a bad shooting night? SC blocked 10 of our shots. They are a good shot blocking team, but that's more than double their season average. We don't generally get a lot of shots blocked. If we didn't get an abnormal number of shots blocked our shooting would have looked better.
However, it's still hard to give our offense the edge against any team.
Advantage: Oregon State
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON STATE 'S OFFENSE
Oregon State doesn't do anything well on offense with one exception. They are poor at shooting, mediocre at offensive rebounding, and they turn the ball over quite a bit.
And we aren't a great matchup for them. The don't shoot a ton of threes, and we defend the two better than we defend the three. They turn the ball over quite a bit, and we generate quite a few turnovers.
OSU does one thing well on offense. They get to the free throw line. They are #29 in the country. In their win over Arizona State, they shot an astounding 49 free throws. (10 of them were in the last two minutes, when ASU fouled intentionally, but that is 39 free throws in the rest of the game.) The Bearvers only had 46 field goal attempts. In that game ASU only shot 25 free throws. How did Bobby Hurley get through the game without a coronary?
They get to the line a lot, but they still have to make them. They aren't exceptional at making free throws.
In our previous meeting we only sent them to the line 11 times.
Advantage:UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
Neither team stands out in any of these categories. We are a liitle better on the boards. In our first meeting we outrebounded them 34-33.
We both play a very slow tempo.
They are young. We are younger.
They have a lot of continuity from last season. We don't.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
The Beavers start 5 sophomores and a senior. All of them were on the team last season. They were a bad team last season, but as freshmen turn into sophomores, they are better. Not good. Better. They return their top six scorers and 10 of their top 11 scorers. They also return their top six in minutes played and 9 of their top 10. Other than Rodrigue Andela, they return the same team that went 11-21 last season.
They don't have a 4-star or 5-star player on the roster. Wayne Tinkle does a nice job of scouting out players that aren't in big demand, but it's hard for too many of them to turn into major college talent. He has found two diamonds in the rough who are good players, Jordan Pope and Tyler Bilodeau. After
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Jordan Pope is the clear star of the team. He shoots the ball well from the outside, and he is a good ball-handler. He has had five 25-point games this season and a season high of 31. He has scored in double figures in 19 of 20 games. He was 2nd team All-Pac-12 preseason.
Pope is a three-level scorer who can create his own shot. He has taken 99 more shots than anyone else on the team. He's not a selfish player. He is one of the few good shooters on the team. He also leads the team in assists.
Tyler Bilodeau had a decent freshman season last year and most of his numbers are up, although his 3-point shooting has dropped off. He is a solid player and good rebounder, but on most Pac-12 teams he would be a rotation player. He has had a couple of 20-point games. He's definitely more dangerous near the basket than from the three-point line.
Dexter Akanno has never been much of a shooter. For his career he is a 36% / 26% shooter. He has been a better from the arc this year. He will shoot a lot and get into double figure scoring in most games. We should be happy to see him shoot a lot.
Then again, Akanno went off for 22 points against us earlier this season, with a season high 4 three pointers. We can't ignore him too much.
Michael Rataj shot 37% from the arc last season. This season he is shooting 21%. I suspect that sooner or later he will find the hoop. Here's hoping it won't be on Thursday. He is an excellent rebounder.
Ibekwe can score near the basket and block shots.
Walk-on freshman Josiah Lake looks like a star in the making. He is the best shooter on the team, he leads the team in assists per 40 minutes and his 3.0 A/TO ratio is outstanding. He must be a good defender. He leads the team in steals, despite only playing 17 minutes per game. He is taking less than 2 shots per game. Why? Beats me! Ask Wayne Tinkle.
Chol Mariel is the best rebounder and shot blocker on the team. At 7-2, he is 3 of 6 from the arc. In the last 5 games he has played between 1 and 7 minutes. Why? Ask Wayne Tinkle.
CONCLUSION
The Beavers have a one-game resume, the win over Arizona. They shot 60% from the arc. Arizona isn't a particularly good three-point defense team. We are quite a bit better.
This is not a particularly talented team, particularly on offense. They haven't scored more than 72 on the road all season. We held them to 62 points in Corvallis, and we are a better defensive team than we were a month ago.
OSU is 3-9 in games where they shot 21 free throws or fewer. They are 7-0 when they shot more than 21. (Yes, teams who are ahead get fouled a lot at the end of close games, but OSU is still one of the leaders in the country in getting to the line.)
As mentioned earlier, the Bruins only sent the Beavers to the line 11 times in Corvallis. The Bruins have sent opponents to the line 21 or more times in 8 games this season. We are 1-7 in those games, with our lone win being over Long Island.
When we give up fewer than 15 free throws, we are 5-1.
Here's my advice to the team:
If they do this I think we can win.
In their four road games this year, OSU shot 36% from the field and 30% on threes. They are -9.5 in rebound margin.
Until Oregon State proves they can win on the road, I won't believe they can. I don't expect they will at Pauley. Maybe they will break through against the last-place team. when they visit the Galen Center.
I am confident of a win. I was confident against Cal. I was confident against CSUN (who are currently 6th in the Big West standings). I am still confident. Some fools never learn.
Go Bruins!
In the earlier preview, I called Oregon State the worst team in the Pac-12. I may have been wrong. They are in 11th place in the league, but they still are the worst team in the league according to KenPom and Torvick.
However, as Arizona found out, bad teams can be dangerous. Especially when they shoot 60% from the arc.
METRICS
| UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
| KenPom | 74% | 67-60 |
| Torvick | 73% | 64-59 |
| Warren Nolan | 72-61 | |
| ESPN | 84% |
The computers predict a UCLA win by 5 to 9 points.
| OREGON ST | UCLA | |
| NET | 158 | 136 |
| KenPom Rank | 149 | 99 |
| Torvick Rank | 148 | 118 |
| SOS | 45 | 36 |
| Record | 11-9 | 9-11 |
Oregon State has a better record than we do against a comparable schedule. But the computers all think we are the better team. Why? Because the Beavers aren't good at anything. We are good at defense.
They also tend to lose badly against good teams, while we are often competitive.
RECORDS
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 0-6 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Oregon St | 1-5 | 0-2 | 4-2 | 5-0 |
Oregon State hasn't won a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game ... EXCEPT for a win at the buzzer over Arizona.
In most of their Quad 1 losses, they have lost badly. They lost by 33, 27, 21, 16, and 14.
Has Oregon State played a super difficult non-conference schedule? No. But you have to give the Beavers credit that they’re undefeated in Quad 4 games. Last season they lost two of them.
However, they didn't exactly run through their Quad 4 schdule. Oregon State needed double overtime to beat both #254 Troy and #301 Cal Poly at home. App State (who are actually pretty good) also took them to OT. They beat #279 UTSA by 1 point. While "the cardiac Beavers" doesn't have a good ring to it, they have had a lot of close wins.
This will be a Quad 2 game for the Beavers if they lose, but a Quad 3 game if they win. If they win our NET ranking gets worse, and if they lose our NET ranking gets better. Talk about a lose-lose.
| Oregon St Road | 0-4 |
| Oregon St Neutral | 0-3 |
| UCLA Home | 5-4 |
The Beavers aren't exactly road warriors. They have yet to win a game outside of Beasley. Of course, Cal hadn't won a game away from home until they came to Pauley, and they haven't won one since. And we haven't exactly been great at defending Wooden Court. Remember CSUN? Yuk!
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON STATE'S DEFENSE
Oregon St Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 155 | 201 |
| Torvick Rank | 152 | 228 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 72 | 64 |
| FG Percent | 43% (162) | 42% (310) |
| Effective FG Percent | (152) | (328) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 32% (78) | 31% (291) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 38% (191) | 28% (343) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 51% (211) | 45% (334) |
| FT Percent | 72% (163) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 30% (229) | 31% (129) |
| Assist Percent | 54% (279) | 51% (161) Improved |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 17% (195) | 18% (230) |
| Block Percent | 11% (104) | 7% (33) |
The Beavers will mix defense with several zones and man. They will press occasionally, and they have several different presses.
OSU isn't excellent at anything on defense. They are pretty good at defending the three. They are pretty bad at protecting their defensive board.
Meanwhile we are pretty bad at everything. Mostly we are bad at shooting, and we turn the ball over quite a bit. We had a streak of three pretty good shooting games lately, but we were back to our bad shooting ways again vs USC.
Or was the SC game such a bad shooting night? SC blocked 10 of our shots. They are a good shot blocking team, but that's more than double their season average. We don't generally get a lot of shots blocked. If we didn't get an abnormal number of shots blocked our shooting would have looked better.
However, it's still hard to give our offense the edge against any team.
Advantage: Oregon State
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON STATE 'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Oregon State Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 33 | 167 |
| Torvick Rank | 42 | 169 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 71 |
| FG Percent | 40% (29) | 44% (210) |
| Effective FG Percent | 48% (76) | 50% (201) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 33% (144) | 34% (185) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 44% (345) | 34% (269) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 47% (62) | 50% (206) |
| FT Percent | 73% (134) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 29% (155) | 31% (112) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (94) | 19% (279) |
| Block Percent | 12% (57) | 9% (150) |
Oregon State doesn't do anything well on offense with one exception. They are poor at shooting, mediocre at offensive rebounding, and they turn the ball over quite a bit.
And we aren't a great matchup for them. The don't shoot a ton of threes, and we defend the two better than we defend the three. They turn the ball over quite a bit, and we generate quite a few turnovers.
OSU does one thing well on offense. They get to the free throw line. They are #29 in the country. In their win over Arizona State, they shot an astounding 49 free throws. (10 of them were in the last two minutes, when ASU fouled intentionally, but that is 39 free throws in the rest of the game.) The Bearvers only had 46 field goal attempts. In that game ASU only shot 25 free throws. How did Bobby Hurley get through the game without a coronary?
They get to the line a lot, but they still have to make them. They aren't exceptional at making free throws.
In our previous meeting we only sent them to the line 11 times.
Advantage:UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
| Oregon State | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 0.8 | 3.0 |
| Turnover Margin | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.9 (317) | 1.0 (261) |
| Tempo | 290 | 355 out of 362 |
| D-1 Experience | 282 | 320 |
| Continuity | 44 | 290 |
| Average Height | 46 | 40 |
| Bench Minutes | 155 | 263 |
Neither team stands out in any of these categories. We are a liitle better on the boards. In our first meeting we outrebounded them 34-33.
We both play a very slow tempo.
They are young. We are younger.
They have a lot of continuity from last season. We don't.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
The Beavers start 5 sophomores and a senior. All of them were on the team last season. They were a bad team last season, but as freshmen turn into sophomores, they are better. Not good. Better. They return their top six scorers and 10 of their top 11 scorers. They also return their top six in minutes played and 9 of their top 10. Other than Rodrigue Andela, they return the same team that went 11-21 last season.
They don't have a 4-star or 5-star player on the roster. Wayne Tinkle does a nice job of scouting out players that aren't in big demand, but it's hard for too many of them to turn into major college talent. He has found two diamonds in the rough who are good players, Jordan Pope and Tyler Bilodeau. After
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Reb / 40 Min. | Assists | Blks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
| Jordan Pope G | So | 6-2 | 3-star 249 | 20 | 36 | 18 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 46% | 39% | 42% | 1.9 | Leads in scoring and assisrs | |
| Tyler Bilodeau F | So | 6-9 | 3-star 206 | 20 | 28 | 14 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 52% | 30% | 26% | 0.8 | ||
| Dexter Akanno G | Sr | 6-5 | 3-star 400 | 18 | 26 | 11 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 38% | 34% | 43% | 0.6 | ||
| Michael Rataj F | So | 6-9 | Unranked | 17 | 28 | 7 | 8.8 | 1.6 | 39% | 21% | 24% | 0.9 | ||
| KC Ibekwe C | So | 6-10 | Unranked | 20 | 19 | 6 | 9.3 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 60% | 0.3 | |||
| Christian Wright G | Jr | 6-3 | 3-star 229 | 20 | 22 | 5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 38% | 29% | 55% | 1.1 | ||
| Josiah Lake II G | Fr | 6-2 | Unranked | 19 | 17 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 57% | 42% | 32% | 3.0 | ||
| Chol Marial C | Sr | 7-2 | 3-star 188 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 10.4 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 43% | 50% | 15% | Transfer from Maryland. Hasn't been playing lately | |
| Thomas Ndong F | Fr | 6-10 | Unranked | 18 | 10 | 2 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 56% | 1.3 | Canadian | |||
| . | ||||||||||||||
| . |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Jordan Pope is the clear star of the team. He shoots the ball well from the outside, and he is a good ball-handler. He has had five 25-point games this season and a season high of 31. He has scored in double figures in 19 of 20 games. He was 2nd team All-Pac-12 preseason.
Pope is a three-level scorer who can create his own shot. He has taken 99 more shots than anyone else on the team. He's not a selfish player. He is one of the few good shooters on the team. He also leads the team in assists.
Tyler Bilodeau had a decent freshman season last year and most of his numbers are up, although his 3-point shooting has dropped off. He is a solid player and good rebounder, but on most Pac-12 teams he would be a rotation player. He has had a couple of 20-point games. He's definitely more dangerous near the basket than from the three-point line.
Dexter Akanno has never been much of a shooter. For his career he is a 36% / 26% shooter. He has been a better from the arc this year. He will shoot a lot and get into double figure scoring in most games. We should be happy to see him shoot a lot.
Then again, Akanno went off for 22 points against us earlier this season, with a season high 4 three pointers. We can't ignore him too much.
Michael Rataj shot 37% from the arc last season. This season he is shooting 21%. I suspect that sooner or later he will find the hoop. Here's hoping it won't be on Thursday. He is an excellent rebounder.
Ibekwe can score near the basket and block shots.
Walk-on freshman Josiah Lake looks like a star in the making. He is the best shooter on the team, he leads the team in assists per 40 minutes and his 3.0 A/TO ratio is outstanding. He must be a good defender. He leads the team in steals, despite only playing 17 minutes per game. He is taking less than 2 shots per game. Why? Beats me! Ask Wayne Tinkle.
Chol Mariel is the best rebounder and shot blocker on the team. At 7-2, he is 3 of 6 from the arc. In the last 5 games he has played between 1 and 7 minutes. Why? Ask Wayne Tinkle.
CONCLUSION
The Beavers have a one-game resume, the win over Arizona. They shot 60% from the arc. Arizona isn't a particularly good three-point defense team. We are quite a bit better.
This is not a particularly talented team, particularly on offense. They haven't scored more than 72 on the road all season. We held them to 62 points in Corvallis, and we are a better defensive team than we were a month ago.
OSU is 3-9 in games where they shot 21 free throws or fewer. They are 7-0 when they shot more than 21. (Yes, teams who are ahead get fouled a lot at the end of close games, but OSU is still one of the leaders in the country in getting to the line.)
As mentioned earlier, the Bruins only sent the Beavers to the line 11 times in Corvallis. The Bruins have sent opponents to the line 21 or more times in 8 games this season. We are 1-7 in those games, with our lone win being over Long Island.
When we give up fewer than 15 free throws, we are 5-1.
Here's my advice to the team:
| DEFEND WITHOUT FOULING!! |
If they do this I think we can win.
In their four road games this year, OSU shot 36% from the field and 30% on threes. They are -9.5 in rebound margin.
Until Oregon State proves they can win on the road, I won't believe they can. I don't expect they will at Pauley. Maybe they will break through against the last-place team. when they visit the Galen Center.
I am confident of a win. I was confident against Cal. I was confident against CSUN (who are currently 6th in the Big West standings). I am still confident. Some fools never learn.
Go Bruins!