Post by mhbruin on Jan 20, 2024 20:36:14 GMT -8
When we last gathered for one of these previews, I wrote, "If we can't beat Cal at home, there are few wins left on our schedule." We didn't beat Cal, but since then we are 2-2. As Yogi Berra said. "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
He stole it from Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
Tom Lehrer explained this phenomenon:
Plagiarize! Plagiarize!
Let no one else's work evade your eyes
Remember why the good Lord made your eyes
So don't shade your eyes
But plagiarize, plagiarize, plagiarize
Only be sure always to call it please "research"
SC has had a bad run of injuries. Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier, their two leading scorers assists leaders have missed the last 3 games. Only Oziyah Sellers (whose parents don't know how to spell "Isiah") has played in all 19 games, and he never started before the injuries to the starting guards.
HOWEVER, the Trojans weren't very good when they had all their players. They were 8-8 when they lost Ellis and Collier. They lost to Oregon State and Long Beach State with both Boogie and Isaiah (whose parents DO know how to spell "Isaiah") in the lineup. They haven't had a decent win since Thanksgiving.
I picked them to win the Pac-12, and I was wrong. That's what I get for picking JustSC. I suspect they won't be in the top half of the league. I think we have a chance to be.
The status of Boogie Ellis is a "game-time decision". I assume he will play in this game. Collier is definitely out. Without Boogie, Sellers has made up for some of the scoring, However, without Ellis and Collier, they had a serious lack of depth at the wing position. They basically had four players to cover all the minutes at three positions.
Here is what they have been missing and the replacements.
METRICS
I don't think the computers take into account injuries. I think our chances are better than this.
USC has the same record as we do, but against a tougher schedule. Howver, out schedule isn't chopped liver.
RECORDS
That's a combined 0-13 in Quad 1 games. Yikes!
USC has played some good teams, but haven't beaten any of them. They did manage a two-point loss to Oklahoma.
Their best wins are over Seton Hall and Kansas State, two bubble teams. As mentioned, their good wins were before Thanksgiving.
Their worst losses are to Long Beach State and Oregon State.
The Trojans have lost 4 straight games, the last three without Collier and Ellis.
Is a trip to Galen a true road game?
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE
This is USC's worst defense since 2019. Otherwise, this is a typical Andy Enfield defense. Pack it in and challenge you to beat them from the outside. Unfortunately, we remain a poor three-point shooting team.
They don't pressure the ball much, so they don't create ton of turnovers. Another sign that they dont' pressure the ball is that they allow teams to pass the ball pretty freely and assist on a lot of baskets.
This has been accentuated without Ellis and Collier. With a lack of depth, the Trojans have been playing a lot of zone.
We are still a bad offensive team, because we don't shoot the ball well. Our passing has improved, and we are assisting on more of our baskets.
The Trojans are better on defense than we are on offense. Who isn't? Nobody left on our schedule.
Advantage: USC
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC 'S OFFENSE
UCLA is better on defense than USC is on offense, but SC is still pretty good.
We have two big advantages:
1) UCLA blocks a lot of shots and SC gets a lot of shots blocked.
2) UCLA generates a lot of turnovers, and SC turns the ball over a lot. In their last two games against the Arizona schools, SC had 19 turnovers in each game.
Advantage:UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
Looking at these stats, neither team looks all that great.
Neither team rebounds that well or has a very good turnover margin or A/TO ratio. About the only thing they are good at is being tall.
We are turning into one of the very slowest teams in basketball. A few teams that play slower are South Carolina, Houston, Saint Mary's, and Virginia.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
The Trojans have a mixture of experience and youth. They will start three 5th-year seniors, but a freshman and a couple of sophomores will play a lot.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Bronny James and Vincent Iwuchukwu are the cardiac kids. Not because of how they play. They have had heart attacks before their freshman seasons. They both seem to be doing fine. Good.
The Trojans have two centers who split the minutes. Neither is a big scorer. They are both excellent rebounders. Iwuchkwu is better on the boards, and Morgan is a terrific rim protector. Neither of them has attempted a three-pointer. The Trojans don't run a lot of plays for the centers., although they will pass them the ball if they are open. Iwuchukwu has a good post-up game.
Other than the two centers, everyone LOVES to shoot 3-pointers. Ellis, Rodman and James alltake over half their shots and Harrison Hornery shoots 71% of his shots from outside, hitting only 29%. Boogie Ellis is a very good dangerous point shooter at 46% and Rodman is decent at 38%. Rodman makes up for it by not shooting well inside the arc.
In fact, this is the gang that turns the ball over a lot and doesn't shoot straight. Only Boogie Ellis and Oziyah Sellers are good shooters.
Boogie Ellis is the star of the team and an all-conference player. He is dangerous from anywhere on the floor. He not only leads them in scoring, but he is a good rebounder for his size and a good passer.
Kobe Johnson is a very good defensive player. He is a strong rebounder and handles the ball well. However, he has never been a great shooter, and he is having a bad-shooting season. In spite of this, he is second on the team in shots taken.
You might expect Dennis Dodman's son to be an excellent rebounder. He is. You might also remember him scoring 19 points against us in Pauley last season. That was an abberation. It is his third-highest scoring total for his 5-year career. He is averaging 7 points this season, and he isn't shooting well.
Bronny James is a victim of the hype machine. He gets relentlessly booed at every road game. If he were Brandon Jones, he would have been a 4-star, top 100 recruit, not a McDonald's All American. You would say he was having a solid freshman season. He isn't shooting all that well, but he plays solid defense, handles the ball well, and rebounds.
Speaking of over-rated, I have never understood how Kijani Wright made the McDonald's All American team. He can get rebounds. His offensive game is pretty much putbacks and fast break baskets. Maybe he will work hard and evolve into a decent Pac-12 level player. Maybe.
Oziyah Sellers has been playing more since Ellis and Collier were out, and he has played well. He is one of the better shooters on a team that doesn't have a lot of consistent shooters. I don't know why he hasn't played more. Maybe Enfield isn't happy with his defense. He's not much a of passer. He has had more than one assist in a game only once in the last 15 games, and he only had two in that game.
Harrison Hornery is a 6-10 guy who loves to shoot three-pointers. Sometimes he makes one or two. 71% of his shots are threes, and he misses 71% of them.
CONCLUSION
With or worthout the injured players, this is still a very talented team. They have a bunch of 5-star and 4-star players and plenty or experience. They have seriously underperformed the talent on their roster.
The early line is that the Trojans are favored by 3.5 points. If Boogie plays, that seems about right. If he doesn't, I think we should be favored.
We currently lead the Trojans by 1 game in the Pac-12 standings. Here's hoping that by Sunday it will be a two-game lead.
Go Bruins!
He stole it from Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
Tom Lehrer explained this phenomenon:
Plagiarize! Plagiarize!
Let no one else's work evade your eyes
Remember why the good Lord made your eyes
So don't shade your eyes
But plagiarize, plagiarize, plagiarize
Only be sure always to call it please "research"
SC has had a bad run of injuries. Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier, their two leading scorers assists leaders have missed the last 3 games. Only Oziyah Sellers (whose parents don't know how to spell "Isiah") has played in all 19 games, and he never started before the injuries to the starting guards.
HOWEVER, the Trojans weren't very good when they had all their players. They were 8-8 when they lost Ellis and Collier. They lost to Oregon State and Long Beach State with both Boogie and Isaiah (whose parents DO know how to spell "Isaiah") in the lineup. They haven't had a decent win since Thanksgiving.
I picked them to win the Pac-12, and I was wrong. That's what I get for picking JustSC. I suspect they won't be in the top half of the league. I think we have a chance to be.
The status of Boogie Ellis is a "game-time decision". I assume he will play in this game. Collier is definitely out. Without Boogie, Sellers has made up for some of the scoring, However, without Ellis and Collier, they had a serious lack of depth at the wing position. They basically had four players to cover all the minutes at three positions.
Here is what they have been missing and the replacements.
Player | FG% | 3-Pt % | FT % | Points / 40 Min | Assists / 40 Min | A/TO |
Boogie Ellis | 46% | 46% | 74% | 22 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
Isaiah Collier | 51% | 31% | 66% | 21 | 5.8 | 1.1 |
Oziyah Sellers | 45% | 41% | 81% | 15 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
Bronny James | 38% | 25% | 64% | 12 | 4.5 | 1.6 |
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 30% | 65-71 |
Torvick | 22% | 64-72 |
Warren Nolan | 68-70 | |
ESPN | 21% |
I don't think the computers take into account injuries. I think our chances are better than this.
USC | UCLA | |
NET | 90 | 149 |
KenPom Rank | 81 | 106 |
Torvick Rank | 82 | 128 |
SOS | 9 | 40 |
Record | 8-11 | 8-11 |
USC has the same record as we do, but against a tougher schedule. Howver, out schedule isn't chopped liver.
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 0-7 | 2-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
USC | 0-6 | 2-3 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
That's a combined 0-13 in Quad 1 games. Yikes!
USC has played some good teams, but haven't beaten any of them. They did manage a two-point loss to Oklahoma.
Their best wins are over Seton Hall and Kansas State, two bubble teams. As mentioned, their good wins were before Thanksgiving.
Their worst losses are to Long Beach State and Oregon State.
The Trojans have lost 4 straight games, the last three without Collier and Ellis.
USC Home | 5-3 |
UCLA Road | 2-4 |
Is a trip to Galen a true road game?
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE
USC Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 85 | 205 |
Torvick Rank | 96 | 223 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 75 | 65 |
FG Percent | 43% (180) | 42% (300) |
Effective FG Percent | (171) | (324) |
3-Pt Percent | 36% (290) | 30% (320) |
3-Pt Rate | 38% (223) | 28% (341) |
2-Pt Percent | 48% (98) | 44% (314) |
FT Percent | 72% (168) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 21% (238) | 30% (149) |
Assist Percent | 59% (392) | 50% (182) Improved |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 18% (117) | 18% (230) |
Block Percent | 12% (55) | 6% (7) |
This is USC's worst defense since 2019. Otherwise, this is a typical Andy Enfield defense. Pack it in and challenge you to beat them from the outside. Unfortunately, we remain a poor three-point shooting team.
They don't pressure the ball much, so they don't create ton of turnovers. Another sign that they dont' pressure the ball is that they allow teams to pass the ball pretty freely and assist on a lot of baskets.
This has been accentuated without Ellis and Collier. With a lack of depth, the Trojans have been playing a lot of zone.
We are still a bad offensive team, because we don't shoot the ball well. Our passing has improved, and we are assisting on more of our baskets.
The Trojans are better on defense than we are on offense. Who isn't? Nobody left on our schedule.
Advantage: USC
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC 'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | USC Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 40 | 81 |
Torvick Rank | 51 | 79 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 76 |
FG Percent | 40% (43) | 45% (173) |
Effective FG Percent | 48% (49) | 52% (125) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (130) | 36% (86) |
3-Pt Rate | 45% (348) | 39% (146) |
2-Pt Percent | 48% (91) | 51% (155) |
FT Percent | 71% (217) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 29% (166) | 31% (112) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (86) | 19% (292) |
Block Percent | 12% (59) | 10% (213) |
UCLA is better on defense than USC is on offense, but SC is still pretty good.
We have two big advantages:
1) UCLA blocks a lot of shots and SC gets a lot of shots blocked.
2) UCLA generates a lot of turnovers, and SC turns the ball over a lot. In their last two games against the Arizona schools, SC had 19 turnovers in each game.
Advantage:UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
USC | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 0.0 | 2.3 |
Turnover Margin | 0.7 | -0.1 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.1 (177) | 1.0 (277) |
Tempo | 80 | 355 out of 362 |
D-1 Experience | 160 | 320 |
Continuity | 112 | 290 |
Average Height | 6 | 40 |
Bench Minutes | 29 | 260 |
Looking at these stats, neither team looks all that great.
Neither team rebounds that well or has a very good turnover margin or A/TO ratio. About the only thing they are good at is being tall.
We are turning into one of the very slowest teams in basketball. A few teams that play slower are South Carolina, Houston, Saint Mary's, and Virginia.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
The Trojans have a mixture of experience and youth. They will start three 5th-year seniors, but a freshman and a couple of sophomores will play a lot.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Boogie Ellis G | Sr 5 | 6-3 | 4-star 38 | 15 | 34 | 19 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 46% | 46% | 54% | 2.0 | Leading scorer | |
Leads in assists and turnovers | ||||||||||||||
Kobe Johnson G | Jr | 6-6 | 3-star 247 | 17 | 31 | 12 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 38% | 28% | 44% | 1.5 | Leads in steals |
DJ Rodman F | Sr 5 | 6-6 | 2-star 572 | 18 | 25 | 7 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 38% | 38% | 52% | 0.7 | Transfer from Washington St. Shoots better on threes than twos. | |
Oziyah Sellers G | So | 6-5 | 3-star 138 | 19 | 16 | 6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 45% | 41% | 41% | 1.1 | ||
Joshua Morgan F | Sr 5 | 6-11 | 3-star 174 | 17 | 21 | 6 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 69% | 1.2 | Leads in blocks. #29 in nation. Adem Bona is #35. | ||
Bronny James G | Fr | 6-4 | 5-star 21 | 11 | 20 | 6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 38% | 25% | 51% | 1.6 | ||
Vincent Iwuchukwu F | So | 7-1 | 5-star 23 | 17 | 16 | 6 | 12.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 53% | 0.6 | Leading rebounder | ||
Harrison Hornery F | Jr | 6-10 | 4-star 102 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 8.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 28% | 29% | 71% | 1.1 | |
Kijani Wright F | So | 6-9 | 4-star 44 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 63% | 0.7 | ||||
Arrinten Page F | Fr | 6-11 | 4-star 46 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 8.7 | 0.4 | 43% | 36% | 30% | 0.4 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Bronny James and Vincent Iwuchukwu are the cardiac kids. Not because of how they play. They have had heart attacks before their freshman seasons. They both seem to be doing fine. Good.
The Trojans have two centers who split the minutes. Neither is a big scorer. They are both excellent rebounders. Iwuchkwu is better on the boards, and Morgan is a terrific rim protector. Neither of them has attempted a three-pointer. The Trojans don't run a lot of plays for the centers., although they will pass them the ball if they are open. Iwuchukwu has a good post-up game.
Other than the two centers, everyone LOVES to shoot 3-pointers. Ellis, Rodman and James alltake over half their shots and Harrison Hornery shoots 71% of his shots from outside, hitting only 29%. Boogie Ellis is a very good dangerous point shooter at 46% and Rodman is decent at 38%. Rodman makes up for it by not shooting well inside the arc.
In fact, this is the gang that turns the ball over a lot and doesn't shoot straight. Only Boogie Ellis and Oziyah Sellers are good shooters.
Boogie Ellis is the star of the team and an all-conference player. He is dangerous from anywhere on the floor. He not only leads them in scoring, but he is a good rebounder for his size and a good passer.
Kobe Johnson is a very good defensive player. He is a strong rebounder and handles the ball well. However, he has never been a great shooter, and he is having a bad-shooting season. In spite of this, he is second on the team in shots taken.
You might expect Dennis Dodman's son to be an excellent rebounder. He is. You might also remember him scoring 19 points against us in Pauley last season. That was an abberation. It is his third-highest scoring total for his 5-year career. He is averaging 7 points this season, and he isn't shooting well.
Bronny James is a victim of the hype machine. He gets relentlessly booed at every road game. If he were Brandon Jones, he would have been a 4-star, top 100 recruit, not a McDonald's All American. You would say he was having a solid freshman season. He isn't shooting all that well, but he plays solid defense, handles the ball well, and rebounds.
Speaking of over-rated, I have never understood how Kijani Wright made the McDonald's All American team. He can get rebounds. His offensive game is pretty much putbacks and fast break baskets. Maybe he will work hard and evolve into a decent Pac-12 level player. Maybe.
Oziyah Sellers has been playing more since Ellis and Collier were out, and he has played well. He is one of the better shooters on a team that doesn't have a lot of consistent shooters. I don't know why he hasn't played more. Maybe Enfield isn't happy with his defense. He's not much a of passer. He has had more than one assist in a game only once in the last 15 games, and he only had two in that game.
Harrison Hornery is a 6-10 guy who loves to shoot three-pointers. Sometimes he makes one or two. 71% of his shots are threes, and he misses 71% of them.
CONCLUSION
With or worthout the injured players, this is still a very talented team. They have a bunch of 5-star and 4-star players and plenty or experience. They have seriously underperformed the talent on their roster.
The early line is that the Trojans are favored by 3.5 points. If Boogie plays, that seems about right. If he doesn't, I think we should be favored.
We currently lead the Trojans by 1 game in the Pac-12 standings. Here's hoping that by Sunday it will be a two-game lead.
Go Bruins!