Post by mhbruin on Jan 6, 2024 17:46:40 GMT -8
Looking back (as much as I would like to forget the last game) all the computers predicted the Trojans would score 64 points and lose. They scored 62 and won.
I wrote that the key to the game was our shooting at least 30% on three-point shots. We shot 21%.
Moving on, next we play 9th-place Washington, and we should get to say goodbye to Mike Hopkins. Rumor is that he will be replaced by Kyle Smith after the season. That is, if a bigger program doesn't hire Kyle Smith. Then again, I thought UW would fire Mike Hopkins after last season.
For several years under Hopkins, the Huskies had very good defenses and bad offenses. Then the defenses got worse, and the offense was still terrible.
This year the Huskies are pretty balanced with a Top 50 offense and a Top 100 defense. They are still in 9th place in the Pac-12.
METRICS
None of the computers believe we will win this game. I have watched quite a but of Husky basketball this season, and I think our chances are quite a bit better than 19% to 28%. The Huskies aren't that good.
I watched the Huskies lead Arizona State by 25 in the second half and blow the entire lead. They let a crappy ASU offense score 51 in the second half. Although the Huskies won the game in OT, it was still a pretty bad collapse. No lead is safe for them.
Yet somehow, the computers think they are a good team. Or maybe the computers just think we are a bad team.
Oddly, this is a Quad 1 opportunity for us.
RECORDS
Washington has one quality win -- over Gonazaga at home. Gonzaga is barely in the NCAA tournament according to most "experts". Washington's next best wins are over Utah and Xavier.
Their worst losses are to Cal, Stanford, and UCLA.
So they basically have no really good wins and no really bad losses.
When we played them in Pauley about 6 weeks ago, we won by 12.
Washington is 4-6 in their last 10. All of their wins are aginst the bottom half of fthe Pac-12.
The Bruins are 7-3 in the last 10. We have wins over a couple of teams in the top half of the league, but two of our losses are to teams in the bottom half.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Our offense took a BIG step back against USC. All the numbers were the worst we have done in the last 11 games.
This game will depend on whether we can turn that back around.
Unlike previous years, Washington plays mostly man defense, although in their more recent games they have been playing more zone.
Washington is ranked as a top 100 defense. I have no idea why. They are not Top 100 in any offensive category except the silly stat of free-throw percent defense.
We are so damned inconsistent on offense, that I have a hard time knowing what to expect.
We have flashes of good offense, but we have played a lot more bad offense. Adem Bona keeps finding new ways to get into foul trouble.
Washtingtons defense is mediocre, but as Pogo said in the old comic strip, "We have seen the enemy, and he is us." I don't know if Washington can stop us, but we are quite capable of beating ourselves. OTOH, the Huskies gave up 51 points in a half to ASU. ASU has a worse offense than we do.
So I'm saying we have a chance.
Advantage: Washington
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC 'S OFFENSE
Washington averages 81 points per game. We held them to 61 in our first meeting.
Washington has a highly-rated offense because they do one thing well: Shoot inside the arc.
Other than that they don't do anything very well.
We have had a lot of games where we needed to defend the three-point arc. For this game, we need to defend the paint.
We didn't do a good job of this in Pauley. They shot 55% on two-point shots, mostly because we couldn't stop Sahvir Wheeler from driving to the hoop. He went off for 27 points.
I thought they should just give the ball to Wheeler and let him keep driving until we showed we could stop him. Fortunately, they didn't. 48% of their shots were three-pointers, and they only made 24% of them.
I would be very happy if they try to beat us from the arc. I would also be very happy if we can find a way to defend Sahvir Wheeler. His 27 points was a season high, and he hasn't scored more than 16 since he played us. Maybe teams have figured out that he is left-handed.
Meanwhile we held Keion Brooks to 12 points, his second lowest total of the season. We should repeat whatever we did to defend Keion.
I have a lot of confidence that Cronin can come up with a good game plan to defend the Huskies. Whether the players can carry it out and whether Adem can stay out of foul trouble is another matter.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
We are a better rebounding team and we handle the ball better.
However, the big factor will be tempo. Washington likes to play fast. We don't.
We do much better in low-scoring games.
Slow teams have more control over tempo. We need to be patient and get back on defense.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
The Huskies are an experienced team. In their rotation they play 6 seniors, including 5 fifth-year seniors. There are a junior and two sophomores in their 9-man rotation.
3 of their 9 rotation players were on the team last year, Keion Brooks, Koren Johnson, and Braxton Meah.
They could be nicknamed the "Team of Transfers". Koren Johnson is the only player who started hsi college career in Seattle. They have two transfers from Kentucky (Brooks and Wheeler), two from Fresno (Meah and Holland), and guys from Rutgers, Nebraska, Lamar, and Portland. Moses Wood is on his 4th school, and Wheeler is on his 3rd school. They could replace the fight song with the Beach Boys' "I Get Around".
Keion Brooks is the leading scorer in the Pac-12. He can score from all three levels, but he does most of his damage inside the arc, where he has a very good midrange game. He always seems under control.
He has scored in double figures in 27 out of 28 games. The only game he scored in single digiits was 9 points when they were blowing out Montana State, and he didn't need to score.
Sahvir Wheeler is left handed, and at this point everyone tries to force him to go to his right. When he goes left, he is usually trying to score. When he goes right, he is usually trying to pass.
He loves the underhanded scoop shot, and he is very skilled at scoring around the basket against taller players (which is everyone he plays against. He is 5'9".)
Wheelier has scored in double figures in 22 of 25 games. He is not a great outside shooter. Dylan Andrews need to focus on staying in front of him and forcing him left. We should be OK with him shooting threes.
Moses Wood is mostly a three-point shooter, and hs is good at it when he is set. We don't want to leave him in the corners.
Koren Johnson doesn't start, but will play a lot. He is capable of going off. He scored 30 against Stanford and made 6 threes in that game, but he is also a threat to drive to the hoop.
He can also have terrible shooting games, but he has been in double figures in their last 4 games. He can make NBA three-pointers. In short, he is a dangerous scorer. I don't know why he doesn't start.
Paul Mulcahy has never been a big-time scorer, even in three years as a starter at Rutgers. He still isn't. He is a pass-first PG. He is the best ball handler on the team.
If Kurt Rambis and Grizzly Adams had a son, it would be Wilhelm Briendenbach. He is a good rebounder, and he has some offensive skills. He will shoot 1 or 2 threes every game, and he is capable of hitting them.
Braxton Meah is the starting center, but he doesn't play starter minutes. He's not a big time scorer, but he is by far their best rebounder and shot blocker. He's not too physical. He might not be able to push Aday Mara around.
Nate Calmese plays sometimes. I haven't figured out why.
Anthony Holland is a three-point specialist. He has attempted 3 two-point shots all season. They must be all layups, because he hasn't missed a two-point shot. Holland will shoot a couple of threes every game, and he makes around 1/3rd of them.
CONCLUSION
I thought USC was a talented team with a poor record. I think Washington is a far-less talented team with not quite as poor of a record.
In our first meeting we held them to 40% shooting, and they had 19 turnovers. The main reason they only lost by 12 is we couldn't contain Sahvir Wheeler.
Brooks is a great player. Wheeler is dangerous. The rest of their roster don't impress me much.
Here's a case where I don't trust the computers. I think we are a better team.
I think we win this game.
Go Bruins!
I wrote that the key to the game was our shooting at least 30% on three-point shots. We shot 21%.
Moving on, next we play 9th-place Washington, and we should get to say goodbye to Mike Hopkins. Rumor is that he will be replaced by Kyle Smith after the season. That is, if a bigger program doesn't hire Kyle Smith. Then again, I thought UW would fire Mike Hopkins after last season.
For several years under Hopkins, the Huskies had very good defenses and bad offenses. Then the defenses got worse, and the offense was still terrible.
This year the Huskies are pretty balanced with a Top 50 offense and a Top 100 defense. They are still in 9th place in the Pac-12.
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 28% | 66-73 (-7) |
Torvick | 28% | 67-72 (-5) |
Warren Nolan | 69-71 (-2) | |
ESPN | 19% |
None of the computers believe we will win this game. I have watched quite a but of Husky basketball this season, and I think our chances are quite a bit better than 19% to 28%. The Huskies aren't that good.
I watched the Huskies lead Arizona State by 25 in the second half and blow the entire lead. They let a crappy ASU offense score 51 in the second half. Although the Huskies won the game in OT, it was still a pretty bad collapse. No lead is safe for them.
Yet somehow, the computers think they are a good team. Or maybe the computers just think we are a bad team.
Oddly, this is a Quad 1 opportunity for us.
Washington | UCLA | |
NET | 69 | 112 |
KenPom Rank | 59 | 94 |
Torvick Rank | 62 | 89 |
SOS | 31 | 65 |
Record | 15-13 | 14-13 |
RECORDS
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 0-6 | 7-3 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
Washington | 1-6 | 5-6 | 5-1 | 4-0 |
Washington has one quality win -- over Gonazaga at home. Gonzaga is barely in the NCAA tournament according to most "experts". Washington's next best wins are over Utah and Xavier.
Their worst losses are to Cal, Stanford, and UCLA.
So they basically have no really good wins and no really bad losses.
UCLA Road | 5-4 |
Washington Home | 10-5 |
When we played them in Pauley about 6 weeks ago, we won by 12.
Washington is 4-6 in their last 10. All of their wins are aginst the bottom half of fthe Pac-12.
The Bruins are 7-3 in the last 10. We have wins over a couple of teams in the top half of the league, but two of our losses are to teams in the bottom half.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Our offense took a BIG step back against USC. All the numbers were the worst we have done in the last 11 games.
Eff FG% | 3-Point Percent | Turnover Rate | |
Washington | 56% | 43% | 21% |
@ Arizona State | 55% | 37% | 19% |
@ Arizona | 53% | 35% | 20% |
@ USC | 42% | 44% | 17% |
Oregon State | 48% | 37% | 13% |
Oregon | 50% | 50% | 11% |
@ Stanford | 56% | 44% | 14% |
@ California | 41% | 29% | 11% |
Colorado | 48% | 33% | 9% |
Utah | 44% | 24% | 8% |
USC | 37% | 21% | 23% |
This game will depend on whether we can turn that back around.
Unlike previous years, Washington plays mostly man defense, although in their more recent games they have been playing more zone.
Washington Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 78 | 190 |
Torvick Rank | 93 | 182 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 77 | 64 |
FG Percent | 44% (190) | 41% (319) |
Effective FG Percent | (143) | (334) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (182) | 32% (285) |
3-Pt Rate | 35% (88) | 29% (339) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (131) | 45% (341) |
FT Percent | 73% (124) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 29% (183) | 31% (105) |
Assist Percent | 51% (193) | 47% (252) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 16% (238) | 17% (153) |
Block Percent | 10% (156) | 7% (15) |
Washington is ranked as a top 100 defense. I have no idea why. They are not Top 100 in any offensive category except the silly stat of free-throw percent defense.
We are so damned inconsistent on offense, that I have a hard time knowing what to expect.
We have flashes of good offense, but we have played a lot more bad offense. Adem Bona keeps finding new ways to get into foul trouble.
Washtingtons defense is mediocre, but as Pogo said in the old comic strip, "We have seen the enemy, and he is us." I don't know if Washington can stop us, but we are quite capable of beating ourselves. OTOH, the Huskies gave up 51 points in a half to ASU. ASU has a worse offense than we do.
So I'm saying we have a chance.
Advantage: Washington
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC 'S OFFENSE
Washington averages 81 points per game. We held them to 61 in our first meeting.
UCLA Defense | Washington Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 28 | 47 |
Torvick Rank | 27 | 81 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 75 |
FG Percent | 42% (62) | 47% (61) |
Effective FG Percent | 49% (118) | 50% (142) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (111) | 34% (186) |
3-Pt Rate | 43% (338) | 36% (212) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (134) | 54% (40) |
FT Percent | 72% (199) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (104) | 28% (225) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (84) | 16% (107) |
Block Percent | 11% (74) | 9% (128) |
Washington has a highly-rated offense because they do one thing well: Shoot inside the arc.
Other than that they don't do anything very well.
We have had a lot of games where we needed to defend the three-point arc. For this game, we need to defend the paint.
We didn't do a good job of this in Pauley. They shot 55% on two-point shots, mostly because we couldn't stop Sahvir Wheeler from driving to the hoop. He went off for 27 points.
I thought they should just give the ball to Wheeler and let him keep driving until we showed we could stop him. Fortunately, they didn't. 48% of their shots were three-pointers, and they only made 24% of them.
I would be very happy if they try to beat us from the arc. I would also be very happy if we can find a way to defend Sahvir Wheeler. His 27 points was a season high, and he hasn't scored more than 16 since he played us. Maybe teams have figured out that he is left-handed.
Meanwhile we held Keion Brooks to 12 points, his second lowest total of the season. We should repeat whatever we did to defend Keion.
I have a lot of confidence that Cronin can come up with a good game plan to defend the Huskies. Whether the players can carry it out and whether Adem can stay out of foul trouble is another matter.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
Washington | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 0.4 | 3.4 |
Turnover Margin | -0.6 | 1.2 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.2 (183) | 1.1 (111) |
Tempo | 27 | 347 out of 362 |
D-1 Experience | 2 | 319 |
Continuity | 206 | 293 |
Average Height | 134 | 42 |
Bench Minutes | 254 | 257 |
We are a better rebounding team and we handle the ball better.
However, the big factor will be tempo. Washington likes to play fast. We don't.
We do much better in low-scoring games.
Our Record | |
Opponent Scores 64 or more | 3-11 |
Opponent Scores 63 or less | 11-2 |
Slow teams have more control over tempo. We need to be patient and get back on defense.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
The Huskies are an experienced team. In their rotation they play 6 seniors, including 5 fifth-year seniors. There are a junior and two sophomores in their 9-man rotation.
3 of their 9 rotation players were on the team last year, Keion Brooks, Koren Johnson, and Braxton Meah.
They could be nicknamed the "Team of Transfers". Koren Johnson is the only player who started hsi college career in Seattle. They have two transfers from Kentucky (Brooks and Wheeler), two from Fresno (Meah and Holland), and guys from Rutgers, Nebraska, Lamar, and Portland. Moses Wood is on his 4th school, and Wheeler is on his 3rd school. They could replace the fight song with the Beach Boys' "I Get Around".
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Keion Brooks Jr. F* | Sr5 | 6-7 | 5-star 24 | 28 | 35 | 21 | 8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 50% | 37% | 28% | 0.8 | Leading scorer |
Sahvir Wheeler G | Sr5 | 5-9 | 4-star 100 | 27 | 34 | 15 | 5.9 | 44% | 24% | 22% | 1.7 | Leads in assists and turnovers GA Kent. | ||
Moses Wood F | Sr5 | 6-8 | 3-star 258 | 28 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 40% | 37% | 68% | 0.8 | 4th School Portland |
Koren Johnson G* | So | 6-2 | 3-star 121 | 27 | 23 | 10 | 2.5 | 43% | 34% | 39% | 1.9 | Only player on the team who came to UW as freshman | ||
Paul Mulcahy G | Sr5 | 6-6 | 3-star 190 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 3.4 | 47% | 30% | 35% | 2.0 | Rutgers | |
Wilhelm Breidenbach F | Jr | 6-10 | 4-star 105 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 0.3 | 55% | 33% | 32% | 0.4 | Nebraska | |
Braxton Meah C* | Sr | 7-1 | 3-star 224 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 75% | 0.3 | Fresno | ||
Nate Calmese G | So | 6-2 | Unranked | 16 | 11 | 4 | 0.8 | 41% | 27% | 54% | 1.9 | Lamar | ||
Anthony Holland G | Sr5 | 6-5 | 3-star | 27 | 12 | 3 | 0.2 | 39% | 39% | 95% | 1.5 | Fresno | ||
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Keion Brooks is the leading scorer in the Pac-12. He can score from all three levels, but he does most of his damage inside the arc, where he has a very good midrange game. He always seems under control.
He has scored in double figures in 27 out of 28 games. The only game he scored in single digiits was 9 points when they were blowing out Montana State, and he didn't need to score.
Sahvir Wheeler is left handed, and at this point everyone tries to force him to go to his right. When he goes left, he is usually trying to score. When he goes right, he is usually trying to pass.
He loves the underhanded scoop shot, and he is very skilled at scoring around the basket against taller players (which is everyone he plays against. He is 5'9".)
Wheelier has scored in double figures in 22 of 25 games. He is not a great outside shooter. Dylan Andrews need to focus on staying in front of him and forcing him left. We should be OK with him shooting threes.
Moses Wood is mostly a three-point shooter, and hs is good at it when he is set. We don't want to leave him in the corners.
Koren Johnson doesn't start, but will play a lot. He is capable of going off. He scored 30 against Stanford and made 6 threes in that game, but he is also a threat to drive to the hoop.
He can also have terrible shooting games, but he has been in double figures in their last 4 games. He can make NBA three-pointers. In short, he is a dangerous scorer. I don't know why he doesn't start.
Paul Mulcahy has never been a big-time scorer, even in three years as a starter at Rutgers. He still isn't. He is a pass-first PG. He is the best ball handler on the team.
If Kurt Rambis and Grizzly Adams had a son, it would be Wilhelm Briendenbach. He is a good rebounder, and he has some offensive skills. He will shoot 1 or 2 threes every game, and he is capable of hitting them.
Braxton Meah is the starting center, but he doesn't play starter minutes. He's not a big time scorer, but he is by far their best rebounder and shot blocker. He's not too physical. He might not be able to push Aday Mara around.
Nate Calmese plays sometimes. I haven't figured out why.
Anthony Holland is a three-point specialist. He has attempted 3 two-point shots all season. They must be all layups, because he hasn't missed a two-point shot. Holland will shoot a couple of threes every game, and he makes around 1/3rd of them.
CONCLUSION
I thought USC was a talented team with a poor record. I think Washington is a far-less talented team with not quite as poor of a record.
In our first meeting we held them to 40% shooting, and they had 19 turnovers. The main reason they only lost by 12 is we couldn't contain Sahvir Wheeler.
Brooks is a great player. Wheeler is dangerous. The rest of their roster don't impress me much.
Here's a case where I don't trust the computers. I think we are a better team.
I think we win this game.
Go Bruins!