Post by mhbruin on Dec 31, 2023 12:16:53 GMT -8
Gone are the days when no one transferred out of Stanford. Apparently there was an express train from Palo Alto to the ACC. Harrion Ingram left for North Carolina, Neal Begovich left for Duke, Michael O'Connellwent to NC State. I guess they heard that Stanford was going to the ACC, and got confused about what that meant
Isa Silva must have missed the ACC train, because he ended up at Long Beach State. The Beach is definitely not joining the ACC.
Stanford also brought in a transfer from Providence. Maybe he realized that a Cardinal outranks a Friar.
Jarod Haase's teams have usually been very good at defense, and poor at offense. Not this year. They are very good at offense, but their defense isn't very good.
Prior to their win over Arizona, I would have expected us to win this game handily. Now I am far less confident.
METRICS
The computers generally see the Bruins as a small favorite, but there is less consensus than usual.
The computers think that Stanford is a better team than we are.
RECORDS
UCLA and Stanford are two bad teams, but one of them has a quality win. It's not us.
This will be a Quad 3 game for both teams. A matchup of mediocrity.
Stanford's best win is, of course, over Arizona. Their next best is over Eastern Washington.
Their bad losses are to Arizona State, Santa Clara, and Northern Iowa by 22.
They beat CSUN by 9, although to be fair, CSUN had to travel more than 30 minutes to Stanford.
Stanford has yet to win away from Maples.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
Stanford's defense is consistenly mediocre. Our offense is consitently bad.
About the only thing they do well is not give up offensive rebounds, and getting offensive rebounds is one if the few things we do well. If we can get some extra shots, it will help a lot.
Stanford doesn't generate a lot of turnovers, which is good, because we haven't been great at protecting the ball.
Stanford is average at defending both the 2 and the 3. We are pretty bad at shooting from either distance.
They don't block a lot of shots, and we don't get many shots blocked. If we don't shoot better, they won't need to try to block our shots,
Advantage: Stanford
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD''S OFFENSE
Stanford is a very good shooting team, both inside and outside the arc. We are pretty good at defending the two-point shot, but not that great at defending the three.
Outside of shooting, they have a couple of weaknesses. They aren't a very offensive rebounding team and the turn the ball over quite a bit.
Advantage:Stanford
OTHER FACTORS
Stanford's biggest weakenss seems to be on the boards. This is a little surprising, since they have plenty of height. We are not an elite rebounding team, but we are much better than they are.
They are better at ball handling than we are.
They play at a moderate speed. We are still SLOW.
The Cardinal start three 5th-year seniors, a 4th-year senior, and a junior. Four of them were with the team last season. That is maturity and continuity.
They use their bench more than we do
PLAYERS
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
We have 1 player who shoots better than 33% on three-point shots. Stanford has seven of them.
Maxim Reynaud has gone from being a journeyman center to a pretty good one. He leads a balanced attack in scoring and rebounding. While it is no his strength, he can shoot the three well enough that defenses need to defend him outside.
Brandon Angel doesn't play like an angel, but he is very good. He does everything well.
Michael Jones leads the team in assists, but he also shoots well. He didn't score against Arizona, but he has scored 20 points in a game this season.
Spencer Jones is a very dangerous scorer when he gets hot. He has scored as many as 27 this season and as few as 3. He has a quick release on his threes, and can hit from well beyond the arc.
Jared Bymum is a solid point guard. He leads in the team in assists with 84. He hasn't shot the ball as well as others on the team.
Super frosh Andrej Stojakovic loves the fade-away jump shot. In fact he loves just about any shot. He has taken 103 shots this season and has 10 assists. Clearly when he gets the ball, you can expect it to go up.
The less-heraled Kanaan Carlyle may turn out to be the better of the freshmen. He has only played 4 games, but he is shooting a higher percentage than Stojakovic, scoring more, rebounding better, and blocking more shotss. Like his classmate, he loves to shoot. 32 shots with only 4 assists.
CONCLUSION
This is a game of strength on strength and mediocre against bad.
Their offense is very, very good. Our defense is good.
Their defense is mediocre. Our offense is bad.
Stanford is better at both ends of the floor than we are. They are older and more experienced.
We are favored by 3.5, but frankly, I think they should be favored.
There are only two things that favor us. First this game is at Pauley. The Cardinal have been bad on the road. Second, we are better on the boards.
Until we show we can close out a game against a decent team, I find it hard to predict a Bruin win.
Go Bruins!
Isa Silva must have missed the ACC train, because he ended up at Long Beach State. The Beach is definitely not joining the ACC.
Stanford also brought in a transfer from Providence. Maybe he realized that a Cardinal outranks a Friar.
Jarod Haase's teams have usually been very good at defense, and poor at offense. Not this year. They are very good at offense, but their defense isn't very good.
Prior to their win over Arizona, I would have expected us to win this game handily. Now I am far less confident.
METRICS
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 62% | 71-67 |
Torvick | 55% | 69-68 |
Warren Nolan | 73-64 | |
ESPN | 54% |
The computers generally see the Bruins as a small favorite, but there is less consensus than usual.
Stanford | UCLA | |
NET | 118 | 144 |
KenPom Rank | 84 | 85 |
Torvick Rank | 74 | 110 |
SOS | 107 | 78 |
Record | 6-6 | 6-7 |
The computers think that Stanford is a better team than we are.
RECORDS
UCLA and Stanford are two bad teams, but one of them has a quality win. It's not us.
This will be a Quad 3 game for both teams. A matchup of mediocrity.
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
Stanford | 1-1 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3-0 |
Stanford's best win is, of course, over Arizona. Their next best is over Eastern Washington.
Their bad losses are to Arizona State, Santa Clara, and Northern Iowa by 22.
They beat CSUN by 9, although to be fair, CSUN had to travel more than 30 minutes to Stanford.
UCLA Home | 4-2 |
Stanford Road / Neutral | 0-4 |
Stanford has yet to win away from Maples.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
Stanford Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 112 | 143 |
Torvick Rank | 113 | 175 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 75 | 67 |
FG Percent | 43% (205) | 42% (278) |
Effective FG Percent | 49% (158) | 46% (309) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (170) | 30% (292) |
3-Pt Rate | 37% (177) | 27% (351) |
2-Pt Percent | 49% (152) | 46% (299) |
FT Percent | 72% (141) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (81) | 33% (87) |
Assist Percent | 43% (25) | 49% (209) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 15% (318) | 17% (159) |
Block Percent | 8% (246) | 6% (10) |
Stanford's defense is consistenly mediocre. Our offense is consitently bad.
About the only thing they do well is not give up offensive rebounds, and getting offensive rebounds is one if the few things we do well. If we can get some extra shots, it will help a lot.
Stanford doesn't generate a lot of turnovers, which is good, because we haven't been great at protecting the ball.
Stanford is average at defending both the 2 and the 3. We are pretty bad at shooting from either distance.
They don't block a lot of shots, and we don't get many shots blocked. If we don't shoot better, they won't need to try to block our shots,
Advantage: Stanford
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD''S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Stanford Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 40 | 66 |
Torvick Rank | 85 | 64 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 62 | 80 |
FG Percent | 39% (35) | 49% (38) |
Effective FG Percent | 48% (95) | 56% (23) |
3-Pt Percent | 32% (137) | 37% (21) |
3-Pt Rate | 45% (348) | 41% (93) |
2-Pt Percent | 47% (86) | 56% (27) |
FT Percent | 72% (151) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27% (93) | 23% (331) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 19% (89) | 18% (167) |
Block Percent | 11% (90) | 6% (10) |
Stanford is a very good shooting team, both inside and outside the arc. We are pretty good at defending the two-point shot, but not that great at defending the three.
Outside of shooting, they have a couple of weaknesses. They aren't a very offensive rebounding team and the turn the ball over quite a bit.
Advantage:Stanford
OTHER FACTORS
Stanford | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | -1.0 | 5.5 |
Turnover Margin | 2.0 | 1.8 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.4 (55) | 1.0 (231) |
Tempo | 128 | 332 |
D-1 Experience | 29 | 320 |
Continuity | 53 | 290 |
Average Height | 60 | 40 |
Bench Minutes | 157 | 292 |
Stanford's biggest weakenss seems to be on the boards. This is a little surprising, since they have plenty of height. We are not an elite rebounding team, but we are much better than they are.
They are better at ball handling than we are.
They play at a moderate speed. We are still SLOW.
The Cardinal start three 5th-year seniors, a 4th-year senior, and a junior. Four of them were with the team last season. That is maturity and continuity.
They use their bench more than we do
PLAYERS
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | Notes | |
Maxime Raynaud F | Jr | 7-1 | Unranked | 12 | 28 | 14 | 13 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 57% | 24% | 13% | 0.7 | Leads team in points & rebounds |
Brandon Angel F | Sr | 6-8 | 3-star #216 | 10 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 1.7 | 60% | 44% | 28% | 1.1 | ||
Michael Jones G | Sr 5 | 6-5 | Unranked | 12 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 1.8 | 52% | 36% | 53% | 2.1 | Leads in steals | |
Spencer Jones F | Sr 5 | 6-7 | 3-star #180 | 8 | 28 | 13 | 7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 46% | 46% | 53% | 1.5 | |
Jared Bynum | Sr 5 | 5-10 | 3-star #366 | 12 | 29 | 9 | 4 | 7.0 | 36% | 33% | 39% | 2.8 | Transfer from Providence, | |
Andrej Stojakovic G | Fr | 6-7 | 5-star #18 | 12 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 0.8 | 44% | 38% | 42% | 0.6 | ||
Kanaan Carlyle G | Fr | 6-3 | 4-star #46 | 4 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 50% | 48% | 66% | 0.5 | 32 shots 4 assists |
Benny Gealer G | So | 6-1 | Unranked | 12 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 2.3 | 38% | 39% | 67% | 3.4 | ||
James Keefe F | Sr 5 | 6-9 | 3-star #339 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 76% | 1.2 | |||
Max Murrell F | Sr | 6-9 | 4-star #120 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 35% | 35% | 59% | 2.3 | Leads in blocks. |
Ryan Agarwal G | So | 6-6 | 3-star 129 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0.2 | 33% | 9% |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
We have 1 player who shoots better than 33% on three-point shots. Stanford has seven of them.
Maxim Reynaud has gone from being a journeyman center to a pretty good one. He leads a balanced attack in scoring and rebounding. While it is no his strength, he can shoot the three well enough that defenses need to defend him outside.
Brandon Angel doesn't play like an angel, but he is very good. He does everything well.
Michael Jones leads the team in assists, but he also shoots well. He didn't score against Arizona, but he has scored 20 points in a game this season.
Spencer Jones is a very dangerous scorer when he gets hot. He has scored as many as 27 this season and as few as 3. He has a quick release on his threes, and can hit from well beyond the arc.
Jared Bymum is a solid point guard. He leads in the team in assists with 84. He hasn't shot the ball as well as others on the team.
Super frosh Andrej Stojakovic loves the fade-away jump shot. In fact he loves just about any shot. He has taken 103 shots this season and has 10 assists. Clearly when he gets the ball, you can expect it to go up.
The less-heraled Kanaan Carlyle may turn out to be the better of the freshmen. He has only played 4 games, but he is shooting a higher percentage than Stojakovic, scoring more, rebounding better, and blocking more shotss. Like his classmate, he loves to shoot. 32 shots with only 4 assists.
CONCLUSION
This is a game of strength on strength and mediocre against bad.
Their offense is very, very good. Our defense is good.
Their defense is mediocre. Our offense is bad.
Stanford is better at both ends of the floor than we are. They are older and more experienced.
We are favored by 3.5, but frankly, I think they should be favored.
There are only two things that favor us. First this game is at Pauley. The Cardinal have been bad on the road. Second, we are better on the boards.
Until we show we can close out a game against a decent team, I find it hard to predict a Bruin win.
Go Bruins!