Oregon Preview

Next is a battle between the two teams tied for first place in the Pac-12, both with 1-0 records.  

If you have any doubt about Dana Altman's ability to coach, not only are you ignorant about basketball, but this season should demonstrate to you that he can make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

Of the five players who started the first game, only one has been healthy enough to play all 11 games.  Dante played 1 game, Bittle played 3, Zarazula played 5, and Barthelemy played 10.

Current starter Jackson Shelstad has missed 4 games.  

Freshman Mookie Cook, who had offers from Kentucky and Kansas hasn't played a game.  

Only two of Oregon's rotation players were on the Oregon roster last season.  

Somehow Altman has pulled together a team with one returning starter, two 5-star freshmen, and a bunch of transfers that were not highly sought after. 
Do you believe in miracles?  Fans in Eugene shouuld.  They are 9-3 against a decent schedule.


The computers predict a UCLA loss by 6-8 points.

Oregon is a 6-point favorite.

RECORDS


We got two bits of good news about our profile.  Not only did we get a Quad 3 win, but CSUN has move up enough in the NET to make our loss a Quad 3 loss instead of a Quad 4 loss.

Oregon is a good team but not a great team.  Their best win is a 3-point home win over Michigan, which I am sure Phil call tell us all about.  Michigan is 6-6.  

Their worst loss is to Santa Clara who also has wins over Stanford and Washington State.  (The Broncos also lost to Cal, sot that makes them 3-1 in the Pac-12.)

The Ducks have played a little bit tougher schedule than we have.


The Ducks are unbeaten at home.   This will be a Quad 1 opportunity for us.  

TEAM STATS


They are a much better offensive team than we are.  (Who isn't? ... Other than Oregon State?)   The defenses are pretty even.  (Our defense is not as highly-ranked as it was earlier in the season.)

We are a better rebounding team.  Oregon State was a poor defenive rebounding team. Oregon is not. We should not expect as many second-chance points.

They are better at ball-handling.

We play slow.  They play faster, but not too fast.  They will definitely run if given the chance.

Because they depend so heavily on freshmen and transfers, they have as little continuity as we do.  The difference is that two of their freshmen are 5-star recruits.  They have four 5-star recruits on the roster, but Dante and Bittle are out with injuries.

We have a significant height advantege.

On paper this is a farily even game, although you would have to give Oregon a modest advantage because of the difference in offensive efficiency. Throw in the fact that the game is in Eugene, and the Ducks are soldi favorites.

NOTE:  The numbers below in parentheses are national ranks.


Analyzing offense is very simple.  They shoot the ball well. We don't   They are good by not great at both two-pointers and threes.  We are terrible at both.  

While they shoot 21 threes per game, they shoot almost twice as many two-pointers. 

Neither team turns the ball over a ton, but they take better care of the ball than we do.  

On the defensive end, the teams are pretty close.  We defend the three a little better than they dp.  

Players

The Ducks are led by their two 5-star freshmen Shelstad and Evans, and a returning 5th-year senior,, Cousinard.  Together, they lead the team in every statisicla catefory.


Look at the A/TO column.  They don't have a single PG with an astronomical ratio, but everyone except Diawara is a solid ball-handler.  This is a verstile team where anyone can shoot or pass. They assist on over half their baskets.

When it comes to three-point shooting, everyone, excpet Diawara is capable of hitting it, but no one is a deadly outside shooter.  Five of them are between 35% and 38%.  

Basically, everyone on the roster, except Diawara who provides size and rebounding , is good at everything, but not outstanding.  

Cousinard has been the only player who started game 1, who has played in every game this season.   He does everything pretty well.

Shelstad is having a very strong freshman campaign, leading the team in scoring.  He has scored in double-figures in his last 7 games and had 21 against USC.

 Kwame Evans is their other star freshman. It is not too often that the team leader in rebounds and blocks also leads the team in steals.  Evans leads in all three.  He is not as consistent a scorer as Shlstad, but he went for 22 against the Trojans.  

With all the injuries, Altman has had to go deep into his bench and those players have all played well for him.  

Another star recruit, Mookie Cook has missed the entire season with an injry, but he is practicing, and he could return any time.

Outlook

Any way you look at it, Oregon has been a better team than us.  They have better computer numbers and a better record.  They are much better on offense, and we aren't particualry better at anything, except we are a bit better on the boards.

We may have looked better in the second half in Corvallis, but that was against Oregon State, probably the worst team in the Pac-12.  

OTOH, Oregon is a good team, if not a great one.  They are more talented and more mature. 

I still suspect at some point things will come together for this team.  I will be surprised if it happend in Eugene, but not totally shocked.