Oregon State preview

Look what Santa left us Bruin fans!  A game against the worst team in the Pac-12.  They are also one of the worst Power 6 teams in offensive effciency.

However, some of you must have been naughty.  (I am always nice.)  We have to play this team on the road, and the game is followed by a much tougher road test.

But who are we to question Santa, even if he didn't leave millions of NIL money in the UCLA basketall stocking?

As coach always says, "I spell ho-ho-ho 'W-I-N'."

So finish your returns, bundle up and get ready.  The Road to the FInal Four begins here.  The Final Four of the NIT, of course.


The computers predict a UCLA win by 3 or 4 points.  

RECORDS


Niether team has much to brag about, but we tended to keep things close in out Quad 1 losses.  In their three losses, they lost by 21, 16, and 14.

Has Oregon State played a super difficult non-conference schedule? No. But you have to give the Beavers credit that they’re undefeated in Quad 4 games so far that they’ve dropped in recent years. That’s not without trying though. Oregon State needed double overtime to beat both #254 Troy and #301 Cal Poly at home. Yet they won both games.



The 3 losses all came in the same week on a neutral court against power conference teams by 15+ points: Nebraska, Baylor, and Pittsburgh. Based on the advanced stats it doesn’t look like Oregon State is likely to win very many games in conference play, but they aren’t an absolute anchor to everyone’s resume like they were last year.

Their best win is over Appalachian State who is #95 at KenPom. Our best win is over #244 UC Riverside by 1 point.

While "the cardiac Beavers" doesn't have a good ring to it, they have had a lot of close wins. Three of their wins were in OT, and they have wins by 1 point and 3 points.  They haven't lost a close game.


The Beavers are unbeaten at home. 

TEAM STATS


The Beavers are worse than we are at offense, defense, ball handling and rebounding. 

They are more than 100 places worse in the rankings for both offensive and defensive efficiency.   

You think we are bad at offense? Wait until you get a load of the Beavers. We are #162 at offense, which is terrible for a major conference team. They are #266. The only major conference team worse at offense is Notre Dame at #310. (DePaul is #265.)

They shoot the ball a little better than we do, but they turn the ball over more.

We are #46 at defense. They are #150.

All of this is against a weaker schedule than ours.  

Is there anything Oregon State does well?  They shoot a lot of free throws and make them at a high rate.  They also block a lot of shots.  Both their centers, Ibekwe and Chol, are excellent rim protectors.

Both teams play slow basketball.  Two bad offenses.  Slow tempo.  Expect a low-scoring game.

NOTE:  The numbers below in parentheses are national ranks.


They turn the ball over more than we do, and they generate fewer turnovers than we do. They have a negative turnover margin.  Ours is better, but still not great. 

About the only thing they do better than us is they assist on a higher percentage of baskets.

Players

They are a relatively young ream, but they are near the the top in continuity. They return their top six scorers and 10 of their top 11 scorers. They also return their top six in minutes played and 9 of their last 10.

Other than Rodrigue Andela, they return the same team that went 11-21 last season.

They are preforming an experiment that may be of interest to Bruin fans wondering what next season will look like. If you have a bad team of mostly freshmen and sophomores, and virtually everyone returns, do they become a good team?


Jordan Pope is the clear star of the team.  He shoots the ball well from the outside, and he is a good ball-handler.  He has had three 25-point games this season.  He was 2nd team All-Pac-12 preseason.  

Dexter Akanno has never been much of a shooter.  For his career he is a 36% / 26% shooter.  His numbers this season are about the same.  At least he is consistent.  He will shoot a lot and get into double figure scoring in most games.  We should be happy to see him shoot a lot.

Tyler Bilodeau had a decent freshman season last year and most of his numbers are up, although his 3-point shooting has dropped off.  He is a solid player and good rebounder, but on most Pac-12 teams he would be a rotation player.

Ibekwe can score near the basket and block shots.

Michael Rataj shot 37% from the arc last season.  This season he is shooting 8%.  That's 1 for 12.  I suspect that sooner or later he will find the hoop.  Here's hoping it won't be on Thursday.  He is an excellent rebounder.  

Josiah Lake looks like a star in the making.  He is the best shooter on the team, he leads the team in assists per 40 minutes and his 6.0 A/TO ratio is outstanding.  He must be a good defender.   He leads the team in steals, despite only playing 17 minutes per game.  I honestly have no idea why he isn't playing more minutes.

Outlook

Oregon State doesn't do much well, but they have won 7 games over weak teams.  The App State win isn't bad.

We, on the other hand, are a schizophrenic mess.  Which UCLA team will show up?  The one that almost beat Marquette or the one that lost to CSUN and Maryland?

When two mediocre teams come together, it gets hard to predict.  On paper we do almost everything better than they do.  We do most things a lot better than they do.

I don't have a lot of confidence in the Bruins right now, but I have even less confidence in the Beavers.  Give me the Bruins and fade the points.  (Not that I suggest you bet on the game.)