Post by mhbruin on Dec 15, 2023 10:30:45 GMT -8
It's time for our last cupcake of the season (although home games against Cal and Oregon State should make for some tasty snacks), the CSUN Matadors. They play Matador defense, and their offense is even worse.
As far as cupcakes go, Northridge is better than our first three, but not quite as good as Riverside.
The computers predict a UCLA win by 19 to 24 points.
RECORDS
According the KenPom Northridge has played the weakest schedule in D1 basketball. The VERY WEAKEST.
Their best wins are over Utah Tech and Idaho. Theri worst loss is at home to LeMoyne. The 2-7 LeMoyne Dolphins' only other D1 win is over Dartmouth. This is the first year LeMoyne is in Division 1.
I strongly believe UCLA is a better team than LeMoyne from De Witt, NY.
TEAM STATS
Keep in mind that CSUN's stats are aginst the worst schedule in D1.
CSUN is bad at defense and even worse on offense. We are not very good on offense, but quite a bit better than they are, and we are MUCH, MUCH better on defense.
Their turnover margin is quite a bit worse than ours.
They are good at one thing: Rebounding. We are quite a bit taller than they are, but we haven't been a great rebouding team this season. They get an offensive rebound on over 1/3rd of their misses. If there is anything we need to worry about, it is boxing out.
They like to play VERY, VERY fast. We play VERY slowly. We should be able to slow them down, which could lead to them taking hurried and bad shots.
NOTE: The numbers below in parentheses are national ranks.
CSUN shoots pretty well inside the arc, and we defend two-point shots well. OTOH, they are not a good outside shooting team. They only get 17% of their points on three-point shooting, which is #359 out of 362 D1 teams. (We are #357, so don't expect a three-point shooting contest.) They are VERY unlikely to beat us by raining threes.
Their two leading scorers are capable three-point shooters, but some of the other players are terrible. Overall, our defense should have a big advantage over their offense, if we can keep them off the offensive boards. Also, expect them to try to run a lot, so getting back on defense will be important.
At the other end of the floor, our so-called offense should find some success against their so-called defense. A big reason their defensive efficiency is so bad is that they foul a lot. We had a bad game against Ohio State, but we are a good FT shooting team at 74%.
Also, their oppents make a VERY high percentage of baskets off of an assist. Apparently, passing the ball works very well against them. We haven't been that great at getting baskets off assists. Maybe we should try that.
Their team A/TO ratio is terrible, They have two guys who are good at handling the ball. In fact Jordan Brinson's A/TO ratio is #39 in the nation. The problem is a lot of guys are turnover machines. Five guys turn it over more than 3 times a game. They are 314th in the nation in getting the ball stolen. (That is, they get the ball stolen a lot.)
Players
The Matador are old. Of their nine rotation playrers, five are seniors and three are juniors. Two are fifth-year seniors. However, that doesn't put them near the top of D1 experience, since quite a few of these guys played two years of JUCO ball. They are #212 in continuity (whether guys who are playing a lot also played a lot last season for the Matadors).
De'Sean Allen-Eikens is their leading scorer,. He is a good outside shooter, but does more of his damage inside the arc.
Dionte Bostick shoots it a bit more often than Allen-Eikens, and he is the primary outside threat. Bostick takes 35% of their three-point shots, and he is their best outside shooter.
Keonte Jones is a very skinny 6-6, but apparently he can jump. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks. Surprisingly for a forward, he also leads the team in steals, which suggests he is also very quick. He is also a good passer.
Tucker is their starting center. He isn't an outside threat, but he rebounds and provides some defense.
Brinson is their PG. He is a very good distributor, but has been a pretty bad shooter.
Barnett has started six games, but has also been a bad shooter. He will still attempt a three-pointer or two every game.
Fofana sounds like something from "The Name Game." "Banana Fana Fofana." If you are too young to know what I mean don't worry about it. You haven't missed anything except a dumb song. He doesn't provide much except a bit of defense.
Outlook
This is another one of those games we should win easily. There is nothing that indicates that CSUN is any good.
However, they present two challenges. The first is rebounding. They are a very good rebounding team, particularly on the offensive boards. Blocking out is one key.
The second is pace. They will run and run and run. We need to get back.
We aren't good enough to take anyone lightly. I don't think we will take the Matadors lightly, even if that is a dumb name for a mascot.
As far as cupcakes go, Northridge is better than our first three, but not quite as good as Riverside.
| UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
| KenPom | 95% | 79-60 |
| Torvick | 95% | 80-61 |
| Warren Nolan | 77-53 | |
| ESPN | 85.0% |
The computers predict a UCLA win by 19 to 24 points.
RECORDS
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 |
| CSUN | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5-2 |
According the KenPom Northridge has played the weakest schedule in D1 basketball. The VERY WEAKEST.
Their best wins are over Utah Tech and Idaho. Theri worst loss is at home to LeMoyne. The 2-7 LeMoyne Dolphins' only other D1 win is over Dartmouth. This is the first year LeMoyne is in Division 1.
I strongly believe UCLA is a better team than LeMoyne from De Witt, NY.
| CSUN Road / Neutral | 3-2 |
| UCLA Home | 4-0 |
TEAM STATS
Keep in mind that CSUN's stats are aginst the worst schedule in D1.
| CSUN | UCLA | |
| NET | 212 | 120 |
| KenPom Rank | 275 | 49 |
| Torvick Rank | 268 | 49 |
| - OFFENSE - | ||
| KP Offense | 283 | 121 |
| Torvick Offense | 272 | 119 |
| - DEFENSE - | ||
| KP Defense | 221 | 16 |
| Torvick Defense | 252 | 17 |
| - REBOUNDS - | ||
| Rebound Margin | 14.8 | 6.4 |
| Off Rebound % | 36% (#43) | 31% (#140) |
| Def Rebound % | 78% (#8) | 74% (#71) |
| Turnover Margin | -1.7 | 1.7 |
| SOS | #362 | #135 |
| Tempo | #23 | #314 |
| Record | 5-3 | 5-4 |
| D-1 Experience | #255 | #323 |
| Continuity * | #213 | #291 |
| Average Height | #194 | #29 |
CSUN is bad at defense and even worse on offense. We are not very good on offense, but quite a bit better than they are, and we are MUCH, MUCH better on defense.
Their turnover margin is quite a bit worse than ours.
They are good at one thing: Rebounding. We are quite a bit taller than they are, but we haven't been a great rebouding team this season. They get an offensive rebound on over 1/3rd of their misses. If there is anything we need to worry about, it is boxing out.
They like to play VERY, VERY fast. We play VERY slowly. We should be able to slow them down, which could lead to them taking hurried and bad shots.
NOTE: The numbers below in parentheses are national ranks.
| UCLA | CSUN | |
| Offense Eff | #119 | #272 |
| 2-Pt FG% | 47% (273) | 53% (114) |
| 3-Pt FG% | 30% (274) | 28% (326) |
| 3-Pt Frequency | 23% (359) | 25% (354) |
| Defensive Eff | #17 | #252 |
| 2-Pt Defense | 47% (95) | 47% (86) |
| 3-Pt Defense | 30% (50) | 32% (140) |
| A / TO Ratio | 1.2 (149) | 0.9 (280) |
CSUN shoots pretty well inside the arc, and we defend two-point shots well. OTOH, they are not a good outside shooting team. They only get 17% of their points on three-point shooting, which is #359 out of 362 D1 teams. (We are #357, so don't expect a three-point shooting contest.) They are VERY unlikely to beat us by raining threes.
Their two leading scorers are capable three-point shooters, but some of the other players are terrible. Overall, our defense should have a big advantage over their offense, if we can keep them off the offensive boards. Also, expect them to try to run a lot, so getting back on defense will be important.
At the other end of the floor, our so-called offense should find some success against their so-called defense. A big reason their defensive efficiency is so bad is that they foul a lot. We had a bad game against Ohio State, but we are a good FT shooting team at 74%.
Also, their oppents make a VERY high percentage of baskets off of an assist. Apparently, passing the ball works very well against them. We haven't been that great at getting baskets off assists. Maybe we should try that.
Their team A/TO ratio is terrible, They have two guys who are good at handling the ball. In fact Jordan Brinson's A/TO ratio is #39 in the nation. The problem is a lot of guys are turnover machines. Five guys turn it over more than 3 times a game. They are 314th in the nation in getting the ball stolen. (That is, they get the ball stolen a lot.)
Players
The Matador are old. Of their nine rotation playrers, five are seniors and three are juniors. Two are fifth-year seniors. However, that doesn't put them near the top of D1 experience, since quite a few of these guys played two years of JUCO ball. They are #212 in continuity (whether guys who are playing a lot also played a lot last season for the Matadors).
| Size | Class | Mins | Pts | Reb | Assists | FG% | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq | A / TO | Blocks / 40 Mins | ||||
| De'Sean Allen-Eikens F | 6-6 215 | Sr | 33 | 20 | 6 | 1.9 | 52% | 38% | 24% | 0.5 | Leads the team in points & turnovers. | |||
| Dionte Bostick G | 6-2 185 | Sr | 32 | 15 | 4 | 1.6 | 44% | 39% | 42% | 0.6 | ||||
| Keonte Jones F | 6-6 175 | Jr | 27 | 14 | 7 | 2.7 | 59% | 31% | 14% | 1.3 | 2.4 | Thin. Leads the team in rebounds, blocks, & steals. | ||
| Dearon Tucker C | 6-10 225 | Sr 5 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 0.3 | 49% | 0.4 | 1.0 | Came from Oregon St. | ||||
| Jasman Sangha F | 6-8 230 | Sr | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0.1 | 60% | 50% | 4% | 0.1 | From Texas A&M Corpus Christie | |||
| Jordan Brinson G | 6-2 170 | Jr | 27 | 8 | 5 | 3.8 | 44% | 12% | 30% | 3.0 | From Fresno | |||
| Bryan Ndjonga F | 6-9 200 | Fr | 11 | 4 | 5 | 0.3 | 50% | 33% | 50% | 0.4 | He's only attempted 24 shots in 9 games | |||
| Jared Barnett G | 6-1 155 | Sr 5 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 4.1 | 36% | 20% | 36% | 1.9 | From San Diego State | |||
| Mahmoud Fofana F | 6-6 195 | Jr | 18 | 3 | 5 | 0.1 | 32% | 14% | 30% | 0.3 | 1.1 | |||
| . |
De'Sean Allen-Eikens is their leading scorer,. He is a good outside shooter, but does more of his damage inside the arc.
Dionte Bostick shoots it a bit more often than Allen-Eikens, and he is the primary outside threat. Bostick takes 35% of their three-point shots, and he is their best outside shooter.
Keonte Jones is a very skinny 6-6, but apparently he can jump. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks. Surprisingly for a forward, he also leads the team in steals, which suggests he is also very quick. He is also a good passer.
Tucker is their starting center. He isn't an outside threat, but he rebounds and provides some defense.
Brinson is their PG. He is a very good distributor, but has been a pretty bad shooter.
Barnett has started six games, but has also been a bad shooter. He will still attempt a three-pointer or two every game.
Fofana sounds like something from "The Name Game." "Banana Fana Fofana." If you are too young to know what I mean don't worry about it. You haven't missed anything except a dumb song. He doesn't provide much except a bit of defense.
Outlook
This is another one of those games we should win easily. There is nothing that indicates that CSUN is any good.
However, they present two challenges. The first is rebounding. They are a very good rebounding team, particularly on the offensive boards. Blocking out is one key.
The second is pace. They will run and run and run. We need to get back.
We aren't good enough to take anyone lightly. I don't think we will take the Matadors lightly, even if that is a dumb name for a mascot.