Post by mhbruin on Dec 10, 2023 13:09:41 GMT -8
This game begins a mini-preview of our future life in the B1G. We are playing the 4th best and 11th best teams in the B1G, according to KenPom. We start with the 4th best, Ohio State.
Going into the season, many people expected this to be a fairly easy game. Last season Ohio State was 16-19 and 5-15 in league play. However, they brought in three impact transfers and several returning players are playing a lot better than they were a year ago. This should be a tough game.
It is also a critically important game. Right now we are either on the wrong side of the bubble or completely off of it, depending on who you ask. This is our last chance for a quality win before conference play.
The computers predict a fairly close game, but a loss. They give us a better chance in this game than against Villanova. Why? Because this game is at a neutral site, and not a true road game.
OHIO STATE'S RECORD
Ohio State has wins over KenPom #13 Alabama, and over Oakland, Minnesota, and Santa Clara.
They have losses to #113 Penn State and #21 Texas A&M
They are 1-1 in neutral site games. We are 0-2 or 1-2, depending on whether you count Chaminade. I don't count Chaminade.
This is a matchup of strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Their very strong offense goes against our very strong defense. Their weak defense goes against our weak offense.
Otherwise the teams are pretty even. We have similar numbers in rebound margin, turnover margin, and strength of schedule.
BUT, there is a rebounding issue for the Bruins. The Buckeyes get offensive rebounds on 38% of their misses which is #14 in the country. We allow offensive rebounds on 26% of misses, which is good, but only #84 in the country. We didn't do a great job on our defensive board against Villanova, and Ohio State is a better offensive rebounding team. No boards, no win.
They are more exeperience than we are. Who isn't? (There are 31 teams with less experience, but none of them are in major conferences.) BTW, the most experienced team in the country is Washington.
We are taller than they are.
Neither team plays very fast.
NOTE: The numbers below in parentheses are national ranks.
Ohio State's strength is offense and particularly 3-point shooting. They are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the country. We are a top 20 defense, but our strength is defending inside the arc. We are not nearly as good at defending the three. We tend to help too much, leaving outsider shooter wide open way too often.
They will play a lot of 5-out or 4-out-1-in, with a steady diet of ball screens. They will screen and re-screen, looking to pentrate, but they will also fire the three if you go under the screen. And their bigs are very good at rolling to the basket. Does it sound like it is hard to defend? It is. There is a reason they are one of the 15 best offenses in the country.
They are great outside shooters, but almost 2/3rds of their shots are two-pointers, and we are very good at defending those shots. I would still give the advantage to OSU's offense over our defense.
On the other end of the floor, we are only a decent offensive team and they are only a decent defensive team. Their big weakness is they are bad at defending the three, but we don't exactly light up the scoreboard from the outside. They play man defense, where they emphasize staying in front of their man more than pressuring the ball. They are only #289 in the country at stealing the ball. They switch all ball screens.
I rate this end of the floor pretty even, unless we are hitting threes. Then we get a small edge.
Players
OSU will typically play one big, either Key or Okbara, and four wings.
The three-point shooters are scary. Six players are shooting at least 40% from the arc. Four of them take around half their shots from out there. We can't focus our defense on one or two guys.
It is easier to say who isn't a three-point threat: Evan Mahaffey and the two big guys, Felix Okpara and Zed Key. Key has made one of his three outside shots this season, but I would still take my chances with him from the arc.
Thornton is a one of the best point guards in the country. I saw one NBA draft site list him as the 5th best PG prospect for the 2025 draft. He is not only their leading scorer, but also a terrific passer. His 4.7 A/TO ratio is outstanding. He has a whole variety of ways to score., but half his shots are threes. Even if he is closely guarded, he is capable of stepping back and burying the shot.
He has scored 24 or more points five times this season. He looks like an All-Big-Ten player.
Two other wings score in double figures. Roddy Gayle is a skilled scorer who can score from all three levels. He also leads the team in turnovers by a pretty good margin.
Battle is another double-digit scorer who shoots a lof of threes.
The Buckeyes alternate between two bigs, eaich playing about half the game. Between them the average 9.8 fouls per 40 minutes, but because they each only play around 20 minutes per game, they don't get into foul trouble too much and neither has fouled out this season. You have the defensive player who is the better defensive rebounder and the offensive player who is the better offensive rebounder. Pick your poison.
Okpara is the better shot blocker and defensive rebounder.. He has some offensive skills, but will mostly score at the rim. He is most likely to score by rolling to the rim off the pick and roll.
Key is the better scorer and offensive rebounder. He has a very good post-up game.
Dale Bonner is a very good outside shooter, but is far less effective inside the arc.
Scotty Middleton is having an outstanding freshman season. He is an excellent defender, and some folks are projecting him as a 3-and-D player in the NBA.
Outlook
Ohio State is a very good team, but not unbeatable. Other than Zed Key, they aren't all that physical. If the refs allow us to play our normal physical game, we should be able to compete with them. Of course, that assumes we don't leave three-point shooters wide open.
OSU is capable of having bad shooting nights. Every team does. In three of their ten game they shot 29%, 28%, and 21% from the outside. They beat Central Michigan and Oakland when they shot poorly, and when they shot 21% they only lost to Texas A&M by 7, Texas A&M shot only 17% on threes, which certainly helped keep the game close.
They have had some trouble against zone defenses. That may seem strange for such a good outside shooting team, but they tend to turn the ball over when attacking the zone.
Honestly, I don't have a good feel for this game. in so many games, the outcome seems to hinge on whether they make their threes. That may be even more true for this game.
If I had to predict, I suspect we keep this close. I think we are a little more mentally tough than they are. So my worthless prediction is that we keep it close and pull it out in the last couple of minutes. Unless they hit a 30-foot three as time expires.
Going into the season, many people expected this to be a fairly easy game. Last season Ohio State was 16-19 and 5-15 in league play. However, they brought in three impact transfers and several returning players are playing a lot better than they were a year ago. This should be a tough game.
It is also a critically important game. Right now we are either on the wrong side of the bubble or completely off of it, depending on who you ask. This is our last chance for a quality win before conference play.
| UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
| KenPom | 41% | 66-69 |
| Torvick | 42% | 66-68 |
| Warren Nolan | 68-70 | |
| ESPN | 28.3% |
The computers predict a fairly close game, but a loss. They give us a better chance in this game than against Villanova. Why? Because this game is at a neutral site, and not a true road game.
OHIO STATE'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 |
| Ohio State | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
Ohio State has wins over KenPom #13 Alabama, and over Oakland, Minnesota, and Santa Clara.
They have losses to #113 Penn State and #21 Texas A&M
| Ohio State Road / Neutral | 2-1 |
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 0-3 |
They are 1-1 in neutral site games. We are 0-2 or 1-2, depending on whether you count Chaminade. I don't count Chaminade.
| Ohio State | UCLA | |
| NET | 35 | 123 |
| KenPom Rank | 25 | 45 |
| Torvick Rank | 28 | 45 |
| - OFFENSE - | ||
| KP Offense | 15 | 86 |
| Torvick Offense | 12 | 89 |
| - DEFENSE - | ||
| KP Defense | 77 | 21 |
| Torvick Defense | 81 | 19 |
| - REBOUNDS - | ||
| Rebound Margin | 5.8 | 6.5 |
| Off Rebound % | 38% (#15) | 31% (#152) |
| Def Rebound % | 74% (#84) | 70% (#184) |
| Turnover Margin | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| SOS | #223 | #268 |
| Tempo | #287 | #332 |
| Record | 8-2 | 5-3 |
| D-1 Experience | #320 | #130 |
| Continuity * | #290 | #160 |
| Average Height | #28 | #115 |
This is a matchup of strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Their very strong offense goes against our very strong defense. Their weak defense goes against our weak offense.
Otherwise the teams are pretty even. We have similar numbers in rebound margin, turnover margin, and strength of schedule.
BUT, there is a rebounding issue for the Bruins. The Buckeyes get offensive rebounds on 38% of their misses which is #14 in the country. We allow offensive rebounds on 26% of misses, which is good, but only #84 in the country. We didn't do a great job on our defensive board against Villanova, and Ohio State is a better offensive rebounding team. No boards, no win.
They are more exeperience than we are. Who isn't? (There are 31 teams with less experience, but none of them are in major conferences.) BTW, the most experienced team in the country is Washington.
We are taller than they are.
Neither team plays very fast.
NOTE: The numbers below in parentheses are national ranks.
| UCLA | Ohio State | |
| Offense Eff | #89 | #12 |
| 2-Pt FG% | 48% (253) | 51% (157) |
| 3-Pt FG% | 32% (208) | 40% (13) |
| 3-Pt Frequency | 24.3% (355) | 37.2% (182) |
| Defensive Eff | #19 | #80 |
| 2-Pt Defense | 45% (39) | 48% (100) |
| 3-Pt Defense | 32% (130) | 34% (232) |
| A / TO Ratio | 1.2 (131) | 1.2 (141) |
Ohio State's strength is offense and particularly 3-point shooting. They are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the country. We are a top 20 defense, but our strength is defending inside the arc. We are not nearly as good at defending the three. We tend to help too much, leaving outsider shooter wide open way too often.
They will play a lot of 5-out or 4-out-1-in, with a steady diet of ball screens. They will screen and re-screen, looking to pentrate, but they will also fire the three if you go under the screen. And their bigs are very good at rolling to the basket. Does it sound like it is hard to defend? It is. There is a reason they are one of the 15 best offenses in the country.
They are great outside shooters, but almost 2/3rds of their shots are two-pointers, and we are very good at defending those shots. I would still give the advantage to OSU's offense over our defense.
On the other end of the floor, we are only a decent offensive team and they are only a decent defensive team. Their big weakness is they are bad at defending the three, but we don't exactly light up the scoreboard from the outside. They play man defense, where they emphasize staying in front of their man more than pressuring the ball. They are only #289 in the country at stealing the ball. They switch all ball screens.
I rate this end of the floor pretty even, unless we are hitting threes. Then we get a small edge.
Players
| Size | Class | Mins | Pts | Reb | Assists | FG% | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq | A / TO | Blocks / 40 Mins | ||||
| Bruce Thornton G | 6-2 215 | So | 31 | 19 | 2 | 4.2 | 47% | 42% | 49% | 4.7 | Leads the team in points, assist, and steals. He's the 23rd best offensive player in the nation according to KenPom. | |||
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 6-4 210 | So | 30 | 14 | 5 | 3.8 | 54% | 45% | 31% | 1.5 | ||||
| Jamison Battle F (from Minnesota ) | 6-7 220 | Sr 5 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 1.5 | 44% | 41% | 56% | 0.9 | ||||
| Zed Key F | 6-8 230 | Sr | 20 | 10 | 7 | 0.7 | 60% | 33% | 5% | 0.5 | 1.0 | He is #3 in the nation at offensive rebound percent. | ||
| Dale Bonner G (from Baylor) | 6-2 175 | Sr | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1.7 | 27% | 40% | 50% | 1.8 | ||||
| Scotty Middleton G | 6-7 190 | Fr | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 46% | 48% | 51% | 0.6 | ||||
| Felix Okpara C | 6-11 235 | So | 19 | 6 | 7 | 0.4 | 64% | 5% | 0.4 | 4.7 | Leads the team in rebounds and blocks. KenPom ranks him the #9 best shot blocker in the nation. He only shoots 50% from the free throw line. | |||
| Evan Mahaffey G (from Penn State) | 6-6 200 | So | 22 | 4 | 4 | 2.1 | 30% | 17% | 14% | 1.6 | Even though he hasn't been shooting very well, he will play about half the game. | |||
| Devin Royal F | 6-6 210 | Fr | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0.4 | 50% | 50% | 22% | 0.6 | He has the distinction of shooting 50% on two-point shots, 50% on threes, and 50% on free throws. | |||
| . |
OSU will typically play one big, either Key or Okbara, and four wings.
The three-point shooters are scary. Six players are shooting at least 40% from the arc. Four of them take around half their shots from out there. We can't focus our defense on one or two guys.
It is easier to say who isn't a three-point threat: Evan Mahaffey and the two big guys, Felix Okpara and Zed Key. Key has made one of his three outside shots this season, but I would still take my chances with him from the arc.
Thornton is a one of the best point guards in the country. I saw one NBA draft site list him as the 5th best PG prospect for the 2025 draft. He is not only their leading scorer, but also a terrific passer. His 4.7 A/TO ratio is outstanding. He has a whole variety of ways to score., but half his shots are threes. Even if he is closely guarded, he is capable of stepping back and burying the shot.
He has scored 24 or more points five times this season. He looks like an All-Big-Ten player.
Two other wings score in double figures. Roddy Gayle is a skilled scorer who can score from all three levels. He also leads the team in turnovers by a pretty good margin.
Battle is another double-digit scorer who shoots a lof of threes.
The Buckeyes alternate between two bigs, eaich playing about half the game. Between them the average 9.8 fouls per 40 minutes, but because they each only play around 20 minutes per game, they don't get into foul trouble too much and neither has fouled out this season. You have the defensive player who is the better defensive rebounder and the offensive player who is the better offensive rebounder. Pick your poison.
Okpara is the better shot blocker and defensive rebounder.. He has some offensive skills, but will mostly score at the rim. He is most likely to score by rolling to the rim off the pick and roll.
Key is the better scorer and offensive rebounder. He has a very good post-up game.
Dale Bonner is a very good outside shooter, but is far less effective inside the arc.
Scotty Middleton is having an outstanding freshman season. He is an excellent defender, and some folks are projecting him as a 3-and-D player in the NBA.
Outlook
Ohio State is a very good team, but not unbeatable. Other than Zed Key, they aren't all that physical. If the refs allow us to play our normal physical game, we should be able to compete with them. Of course, that assumes we don't leave three-point shooters wide open.
OSU is capable of having bad shooting nights. Every team does. In three of their ten game they shot 29%, 28%, and 21% from the outside. They beat Central Michigan and Oakland when they shot poorly, and when they shot 21% they only lost to Texas A&M by 7, Texas A&M shot only 17% on threes, which certainly helped keep the game close.
They have had some trouble against zone defenses. That may seem strange for such a good outside shooting team, but they tend to turn the ball over when attacking the zone.
Honestly, I don't have a good feel for this game. in so many games, the outcome seems to hinge on whether they make their threes. That may be even more true for this game.
If I had to predict, I suspect we keep this close. I think we are a little more mentally tough than they are. So my worthless prediction is that we keep it close and pull it out in the last couple of minutes. Unless they hit a 30-foot three as time expires.