Post by mhbruin on Nov 24, 2023 15:22:50 GMT -8
I haven't seen Riverside play, so this will be strictly by the numbers.
UC Riverside is 3-4, but the record is 1-4 against Divsion 1 teams. Their only D1 win was against Green Bay. The Phoenix, not the Packers. They lost to Montana State by 1, which is better than Cal, who lost to Montana State by 3.
We are favored by 18.5 points.
The computers are pretty sure that the Highlanders will score 56 points. BTW, the elevation of Riverside is around 800 feet. Does that qualify as highlands? Are they really Highlanders?
Riverside is a signifcantly better team than our first three cupcakes at #258 in KenPom. (St Francis is #359, LIU 341, Lafayette 326.) They may be a stronger than three of the worst teams in D1, but we are still a much better team than they are.
We are better on offense, better on defense, and better on the boards. The only stat where they are better is tunover margin. They do a good job at protecting the ball.
They are not a good-shooting team, shooting 38% /30% / 70%.
Maui didn't do much for our W-L record, but it imporved our strength of schedule a lot. In spite of the really weak competition to start the season, we have played a significantly tougher schedule than the Highlanders.
UCR plays a slow tempo. Ours is glacial. If you like low-possession games, you will love this game
Players
UCR plays a lot of guys. They could play up to 13 guys for a decent chunk of minutes.
They seem to be led by their two guards. Hargress leads their team in scoring and steals. He is their best outside shooter.
Moses leads in assists, but both Moses and Hargess have excellent A/TO ratios.
They play two centers. Griscti, the starter, is a good 3-point shooter. Martinez, the backup, is 0 for 4 from the arc on the season. He's not the great inside the arc, either.
The centers average 1.6 blocks per game. Griscti has 1.0 of them. We average 4.2 blocks per game.
Tattersall is a good rebounder and passer, but doesn't shoot the ball very well,
Almost 44% of their shots are threes, which makes them #57 in the nation. Against D1 competion, they have shot 33% from the arc and 39% inside the arc. They should shoot a lot of threes.
They have three good outside shooters in Hargress, Moses, and Griscti, but the rest of the roster isn't great, so their team average is just 30%. And they haven't met our defense yet. We are a Top 20 defense.
Outlook
As mentioned UCR is the strongest cupcake on our schedule. They are better than future opponent CSUN.
However, this should be a fairly easy win. The only chance they have is to get very hot from the three-point line. That could keep it close for a while.
We will probably win by 20 and Cronin will be upset by our play.
UC Riverside is 3-4, but the record is 1-4 against Divsion 1 teams. Their only D1 win was against Green Bay. The Phoenix, not the Packers. They lost to Montana State by 1, which is better than Cal, who lost to Montana State by 3.
We are favored by 18.5 points.
| UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
| KenPom | 96% | 74-56 |
| Torvick | 95% | 73-56 |
| Warren Nolan | 75-56 | |
| ESPN | 88.3% |
The computers are pretty sure that the Highlanders will score 56 points. BTW, the elevation of Riverside is around 800 feet. Does that qualify as highlands? Are they really Highlanders?
| UC Riverside | UCLA | |
| NET | 137 | 3 |
| KenPom Rank | 258 | 33 |
| Torvick Rank | 248 | 32 |
| KP Offense | 260 | 63 |
| Torvick Offense | 284 | 70 |
| KP Defense | 231 | 14 |
| Torvick Defense | 185 | 16 |
| Rebound Margin | 2.3 | 9.0 |
| Turnover Margin | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| SOS | 178 | 43 |
| Tempo | 270 | 326 |
| Record | 1-4 | 4-2 |
Riverside is a signifcantly better team than our first three cupcakes at #258 in KenPom. (St Francis is #359, LIU 341, Lafayette 326.) They may be a stronger than three of the worst teams in D1, but we are still a much better team than they are.
We are better on offense, better on defense, and better on the boards. The only stat where they are better is tunover margin. They do a good job at protecting the ball.
They are not a good-shooting team, shooting 38% /30% / 70%.
Maui didn't do much for our W-L record, but it imporved our strength of schedule a lot. In spite of the really weak competition to start the season, we have played a significantly tougher schedule than the Highlanders.
UCR plays a slow tempo. Ours is glacial. If you like low-possession games, you will love this game
Players
| Size | Class | Mins | Pts | Reb | Assists | FG% | 3-Pt% | A / TO | ||||
| Barrington Hargress G | Fr | 6-0 195 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 4.4 | 46% | 42% | 3.9 | |||
| Isaiah Moses G | So | 6-1 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 4.7 | 39% | 36% | 2.8 | |||
| Benjamin Griscti C (from Incanate Word) | Jr | 6-11 220 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 0.3 | 51% | 39% | ||||
| Wil Tattersall F | Sr | 6-7 210 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 1.3 | 40% | 26% | 2.3 | |||
| Jhaylon Martinez C | Jr | 6-11 260 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 0.1 | 40% | |||||
| Kyle Owens F | Sr | 6-8 205 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 0.3 | 38% | 25% | ||||
| Vladimer Salaridze F | Jr | 6-7 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0.7 | 50% | 23% | ||||
| Nate Pickens G | So | 6-3 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 2.1 | 20% | 22% | ||||
| Kaleb Smith F | Fr | 6-9 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0.3 | 39% | 53% | ||||
| Luke Turner F | Jr | 6-7 195 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1.3 | 20% | 11% | 3.0 |
UCR plays a lot of guys. They could play up to 13 guys for a decent chunk of minutes.
They seem to be led by their two guards. Hargress leads their team in scoring and steals. He is their best outside shooter.
Moses leads in assists, but both Moses and Hargess have excellent A/TO ratios.
They play two centers. Griscti, the starter, is a good 3-point shooter. Martinez, the backup, is 0 for 4 from the arc on the season. He's not the great inside the arc, either.
The centers average 1.6 blocks per game. Griscti has 1.0 of them. We average 4.2 blocks per game.
Tattersall is a good rebounder and passer, but doesn't shoot the ball very well,
Almost 44% of their shots are threes, which makes them #57 in the nation. Against D1 competion, they have shot 33% from the arc and 39% inside the arc. They should shoot a lot of threes.
They have three good outside shooters in Hargress, Moses, and Griscti, but the rest of the roster isn't great, so their team average is just 30%. And they haven't met our defense yet. We are a Top 20 defense.
Outlook
As mentioned UCR is the strongest cupcake on our schedule. They are better than future opponent CSUN.
However, this should be a fairly easy win. The only chance they have is to get very hot from the three-point line. That could keep it close for a while.
We will probably win by 20 and Cronin will be upset by our play.
