Post by mhbruin on Nov 21, 2023 14:19:50 GMT -8
Here we go again. Another game against the Zags. However, this game isn't likely to be decided by a thre-pointer in the closing seconds.
Gonzaga is good, but not as good as they have been and not as good as Marquette. Their best win seems to be a home win over Yale. Our best win is .. We don't have one. Our best game was our loss to Marquette.
Gonzaga likes to play fast. They will push the ball up the floor every chance they get, hoping to attack before our defense is set up. Getting back on defense will be a key.
Also, Gonzaga is not much of an outside shooting team. They are always trying to get to the rim. They will attack off the dribble, but unlike Marquette, they will not be kicking it out to a 3-point shooter. They are drving to score. There is a reason they aren't kicking it out for a three-pointer. They are only a 28% three-point shooting team.
OTOH, they shoot 54% inside the arc. They penetrate to either get a layup; or if the defense collapses, they will try to pass it to an open man near the hoop.
They other way they get to the rim is to post up their big center Graham Ike, who is strong and skilled close to the basket.
We should be able to play big against them, and pack the lane more.
On defense, they will pressure the ball, but not as hard as Marquette or Tennessee.
The Zags are favored by 4.5 points.
As normal, the Zags are very good on offense and good on defense. We are an excellent defensive team, which is remarkable, considering how little time we have had to master team defense. Our offense isn't great, however.
Neither team has been very good at protecting the ball.
Ganzaga is #5 in the nation in rebound margin. The Bruins are #23. The Zags are #19 in offensive rebounds per game. They get an offenisve rebound on 39% of their misses. We only give up an offensive rebound on 21% of the other team's misses. The battle of the boards could decide this game.
Players
Gonzaga isn't particularly deep, which could affect them with 3 games in 3 days. (We go a bit deeper.)
So far their only effective outside shooters have been their centers. Someone need to guard Ike, Huff, and Gregg on the outside.
Ike isn't Drew Timme, but he has been an effective center for them, scoring from the arc and with a strong post-up game. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, blocks, and (surprisingly) steals.
Nolan is very experienced off guard, but so far this year his shooting hasn't been great.
Huff has been a solid backup center, and he has been a very good rebounder.
Anton Watson has been around forever. He won't wow you, but is a very solid player. He is very good at filling the lane on the fast break.
Ryan Nembhard is their pass-first point guard but he is a capable scorer and a better shooter than he has been so far this season
Dusty Stromer wouldn't be starting except for an injury to a projected starter, but he is a talented kid. He hasn't hurt the Zags as a true freshman and he has shown some flashes of read talent.
Outlook
This Gonzaga team is not as good as recent teams, but that doesn't mean they aren't a good team. OTOH, we are a better team than I expected us to be at this point in the season.
However, we are still VERY, VERY young. That means we are going to be inconsistent. We are capable of winning this game. We are capable of getting blown out.
I think this is a pretty good matchup for us. We need to do four things to win this game.
We are capable of doing all of these.
Gonzaga is good, but not as good as they have been and not as good as Marquette. Their best win seems to be a home win over Yale. Our best win is .. We don't have one. Our best game was our loss to Marquette.
Gonzaga likes to play fast. They will push the ball up the floor every chance they get, hoping to attack before our defense is set up. Getting back on defense will be a key.
Also, Gonzaga is not much of an outside shooting team. They are always trying to get to the rim. They will attack off the dribble, but unlike Marquette, they will not be kicking it out to a 3-point shooter. They are drving to score. There is a reason they aren't kicking it out for a three-pointer. They are only a 28% three-point shooting team.
OTOH, they shoot 54% inside the arc. They penetrate to either get a layup; or if the defense collapses, they will try to pass it to an open man near the hoop.
They other way they get to the rim is to post up their big center Graham Ike, who is strong and skilled close to the basket.
We should be able to play big against them, and pack the lane more.
On defense, they will pressure the ball, but not as hard as Marquette or Tennessee.
UCLA Predicted Win % | Predicted Score | |
KenPom | 32% | 66-71 |
Torvick | 39% | 69-71 |
Warren Nolan | 71-73 | |
ESPN | 27.3% |
The Zags are favored by 4.5 points.
Gonzaga | UCLA | |
NET | 6 | 3 |
KenPom Rank | 8 | 28 |
Torvick Rank | 11 | 31 |
KP Offense | 12 | 68 |
Torvick Offense | 9 | 59 |
KP Defense | 13 | 14 |
Torvick Defense | 32 | 12 |
Rebound Margin | 16.7 | 11.8 |
Turnover Margin | -0.8 | 1.6 |
SOS | 27 | 359 |
Tempo | 66 | 321 |
Record | 3-1 | 4-1 |
As normal, the Zags are very good on offense and good on defense. We are an excellent defensive team, which is remarkable, considering how little time we have had to master team defense. Our offense isn't great, however.
Neither team has been very good at protecting the ball.
Ganzaga is #5 in the nation in rebound margin. The Bruins are #23. The Zags are #19 in offensive rebounds per game. They get an offenisve rebound on 39% of their misses. We only give up an offensive rebound on 21% of the other team's misses. The battle of the boards could decide this game.
Players
Size | Class | Mins | Pts | Reb | Assists | FG% | 3-Pt% | A / TO | ||||
Graham Ike F | Jr | 6-9 240 | 23 | 17 | 9 | 1.0 | 67% | 44% | 0.4 | |||
Nolan Hickman G | Jr | 6-2 183 | 32 | 14 | 2 | 2.5 | 43% | 25% | 1.4 | |||
Braden Huff F | Fr | 6-10 242 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 0.3 | 62% | 47% | 0.3 | |||
Anton Watson F | Sr 5 | 6-8 238 | 28 | 13 | 8 | 2.8 | 60% | 20% | 1.8 | |||
Ryan Nembhard G | Jr | 6-0 175 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 5.8 | 38% | 13% | 2.1 | |||
Dusty Stromer G | Fr | 6-6 192 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 1.5 | 37% | 31% | 1.5 | |||
Ben Gregg F | Jr | 6-10 230 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 0.5 | 50% | 33% | 1.0 | |||
. | ||||||||||||
. | ||||||||||||
. |
Gonzaga isn't particularly deep, which could affect them with 3 games in 3 days. (We go a bit deeper.)
So far their only effective outside shooters have been their centers. Someone need to guard Ike, Huff, and Gregg on the outside.
Ike isn't Drew Timme, but he has been an effective center for them, scoring from the arc and with a strong post-up game. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, blocks, and (surprisingly) steals.
Nolan is very experienced off guard, but so far this year his shooting hasn't been great.
Huff has been a solid backup center, and he has been a very good rebounder.
Anton Watson has been around forever. He won't wow you, but is a very solid player. He is very good at filling the lane on the fast break.
Ryan Nembhard is their pass-first point guard but he is a capable scorer and a better shooter than he has been so far this season
Dusty Stromer wouldn't be starting except for an injury to a projected starter, but he is a talented kid. He hasn't hurt the Zags as a true freshman and he has shown some flashes of read talent.
Outlook
This Gonzaga team is not as good as recent teams, but that doesn't mean they aren't a good team. OTOH, we are a better team than I expected us to be at this point in the season.
However, we are still VERY, VERY young. That means we are going to be inconsistent. We are capable of winning this game. We are capable of getting blown out.
I think this is a pretty good matchup for us. We need to do four things to win this game.
- Get back and stop the fast break
- Compete on the boards
- Stop the direct drives to the rim
- Don't turn the ball over (which helps stop the fast break.)
We are capable of doing all of these.