Post by mhbruin on Jan 27, 2023 18:15:06 GMT -8
After the toughest stretch of the conference schedule, we get six winnable games. OTOH, they are also must-win games. KenPom says the Washington game is the second easiest game left on the schedule. (He says our home game against Cal should be slightly easier.)
Washington doesn't play great defense or offense, although they are better at defense.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -13.5
Line: UCLA -17.5 (17.5 point favorites win 99% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 76-59.
KemPom: UCLA wins 94% of the time, 77-59.
The computers still love the Bruins, even if some of the fans don't.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
Washington can be dangerous, with two Quad 1 wins. They beat a very good St. Mary's team and won at Colorado. The St. Mary's win was around Thanksgiving. They also played Arizona tough in Tucson, although they just got blown out by the Wildcats in Seattle,
They have bad losses to Oregon State, and Cal Baptist.
Their only road win was at Colorado. Don't let that terrible road record fool you. Those road losses were to Arizona, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Utah, and Oregon State (by 1). Four of those road losses are Quad 1 losses. It's a fluke of the schedule that most of their conference road games have been against the top half of the league.
Yet, we have been perfect at home, and they have been perfectly bad on the road. We won by 25 in Hec-Ed. Even though that was when we were playing better offense, back then, it's hard to see them beating us on the road. They did beat Colorado on the road, but we are a lot better than Colorado.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us, and a Quad 1 game for the Huskies.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Washington plays mostly "that zone". They played some man earlier in the season, but they have been using it less as the season goes on.
Most of our offensive stats have gotten worse since we first played the Huskies, but perhaps that shouldn't be a surprise. We have been playing much better defenses.
Here are KenPom ratings of defenses we have played:
Washington is #94.
Meanwhile USC is #1 in 2-point defense. ASU is #3, Utah is #13, and Arizona is #32. Washington is #120.
The Huskies just don't present the same defensive challenge that other recent opponents have presented.
We have gotten better at a few things lately. We have improved our offensive rebounding, free throw shooting, and we are assisting on more baskets.
Washington's zone is very good at keeping the other team from shooting a high percentage. Unlike the Matisse Thybul days, they are not very good at turning the other team over. They also allow a lot of assisted baskets. Clearly the way to beat the Husky defense is to pass the ball, not try to beat it one-on-one. Our assist percent isn't great, but it has improved lately.
The Huskies are very good at defending the three-point shot, but not so good against the two-point shot. We don't shoot a lot of 3's, and we are very good inside the arc.
They are elite at one thing and terrible at the another. Their real strength is blocking shots, where they are one of the best in the country. We are just as good at not getting our shots blocked. This is real strength against strength. If we can avoid getting our shots blocked, we should have a good scoring game.
The real problem for Washington is their defensive board. They give up a ton of offensive rebounds. We are excellent on the offensive boards, so we should be able to exploit this.
Washington plays a moderate tempo, and is playing faster than they were for our first meeting. We are starting to play really slowly. This may be the result of playing tougher defenses, but it also may just be that Cronin is more comfortable playing slowly.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S OFFENSE
This one is pretty simple. Washington’s scoring attack has been an inconsistent and chaotic mess. UW is tied for 295h in the NCAA with 11.6 assists per game, ranked 277th in three-point field goal percentage (32.0%) and 216th in points per game (69.9). Now they have to face one of the best defenses in the country.
It's hard to find anything UW does does well on offense or even decently They don't shoot the three that well. They are a little better at the two. They aren't very good on the offensive boards. They turn the ball over a lot. Only Colorado turns the ball over more often in the Pac-12.
They get a lot of their shots blocked. They don't get a lot of assists, but they aren't great one-on-one players. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
They are good at one thing: Shooting free throws (in spite of Meah's odd way of shooting them). But they are #205 in the US at getting to the line. We are #51 at not fouling.
It makes you wonder how they have good wins. Saint Mary's had a terrible shooting night, and the Huskies had an unusually good night shooting against Colorado.
Advantage: Big for UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
We are better on the boards, and we handle the ball better. The Huskies may be tall, but they don't rebound well out of the zone.
We lead the Pac-12 in offensive rebounds (which is kind of amazing for a slow-tempo team). Washington is 10th.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Washington's starting lineup has changed since our first meeting. One reason is that Noah Williams has returned from injury, but it may be more that PJ Fuller and Jamal Bey just aren't all that good. So Hopkins now starts Noah Williams and Keyon Menifield.
The Huskies are tall, but not as tall as some of the other teams we have played lately. The Pac-12 is a very tall league, with the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th tallest teams.
We also have #12, #17, #26, and #39, before you get to #42 Washington. They should look short, compared to the other teams in the league. (We are midgets at #192.)
Washington leads the country in starters pronounced "Key-On".
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks gets the headlines. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding. Don't let his 18 points per game impress you. He is doing that while shooting 43% from the field and 28% from the arc. He scores a lot because he shoots a lot. Then again, he may be forced to shoot a lot, because there is no other reliable scorer for the Huskies. 43% from the field is the best on the team for the wings. Like a number of Huskies, he turns the ball over a lot.
Cole Bajema is their best 3-point shooter at 37% The Bruins have 4 players who shoot the three better than Bajema. He leads the team in 3-point attempts. He also rebounds pretty well for a Husky.
Noah Williams, who transferred from arch-rival WSU, continues to score quite a bit while not shooting a good percentage. He will take a lot of high-difficulty shots, and make some of them. He can have a high-scoring game, but he is just as likely to shoot the Huskies in the foot.
My favorite non-Bruin in the Pac 12 is freshman Keyon Menifield, who leads the team in assists and A/TO ratio. He is the only good ball-handler on the team. Putting him into the starting lineup over seniors was an excellent move by Hopkins. Menifield was lightly recruited, because of his size. (He's more likley 5'11" than the 6'1" he is listed at.) However, the kid is quick and can play.
I love his pace and decisiveness. He never casually dribbles up the floor. He pushes it up the floor at a run every time. You will rarely see him dribble in one spot or hold the ball for long. If he is dibbling, he is making some kind of move. If he doesn't see an opportunity, he doesn't hold on to the ball. He immediately passes it to a teammate.
As his shooting improves, I think the kid wlll be a star. I also think he will end up with fans who call themselves the "Meniacs".
I also like Fresno transfer Braxton Meah. The 7'1" center is only averaging 9 points per game, but he is shooting shooting 68%. Add in 7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game and he is contributing a lot. This is a surprise, since he didn't show much at Fresno. But he is flourishing in Seattle. He was going to be sharing minutes with Oregon transfer Franck Kepnang, but Franck went down for the season with an ACL tear.
PJ Fuller and Jamal Bey have lost their starting roles, probably because they haven't been productive on offense. Fuller leads them in steals with 1.2 per game. It's hard to believe that two seasons ago, Bey led the Pac-12 in three-point shooting. His numbers have gotten worse every year since them.
Koren Johnson is a nice-looking freshman guard. He leads the team in steals per 40 minutes,
Langston Wilson is a very athletic big man, who can rebound and block shots. He's mostly used to give Meah some rest or when Meah gets into foul trouble.
CONCLUSION
We are a great defense. Washington is a bad offense. In Seattle, they scored 49 points against us. We are playing better defense than we were a month ago. None the the computers think they will score more than 59 points. 59 points will not be enough points to beat us.
Washington is good at three things:
None of those bode well for the Huskies. We don't foul a lot, we don't get a lot of shots blocked, and we don't shoot a lot of threes.
We are more talented, better coached, and better at every phase of the game. I don't see any reason to think the Huskies can win this game.
But even a blind Husky finds a big-time win once in a while. You might wonder how they beat a really good St. Mary's team. St. Mary's had a terrible shooting night. The only team that held them to a lower percentage all year was Houston, who is a defensive juggernaut. St. Mary's attempted 29 three-point shots and had their worst three-point shooting game of the season. St. Mary's scored 58 points in regulation and 6 points in overtime.
We just need to move the ball on offense, and not take 29 three-point shots. We haven't attempted more than 26 all season.
They won't score a lot against us. As long as we make shots, we should win easily.
Go Bruins!
Washington doesn't play great defense or offense, although they are better at defense.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -13.5
Line: UCLA -17.5 (17.5 point favorites win 99% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 95% of the time.77-59.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 76-59.
KemPom: UCLA wins 94% of the time, 77-59.
Washington | UCLA | |
NET | 128 | 5 |
KenPom Rank | 112 | 3 |
Sagarin Rank | 96 | 4 |
Torvick Rank | 116 | 3 |
SOS | 45 | 19 |
Record | 13-10 | 17-4 |
The computers still love the Bruins, even if some of the fans don't.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 4-4 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 |
Washington | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3-2 | 6-0 |
Washington can be dangerous, with two Quad 1 wins. They beat a very good St. Mary's team and won at Colorado. The St. Mary's win was around Thanksgiving. They also played Arizona tough in Tucson, although they just got blown out by the Wildcats in Seattle,
They have bad losses to Oregon State, and Cal Baptist.
UCLA Road / Neutral | 11-0 |
Washington Road | 1-5 |
Their only road win was at Colorado. Don't let that terrible road record fool you. Those road losses were to Arizona, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Utah, and Oregon State (by 1). Four of those road losses are Quad 1 losses. It's a fluke of the schedule that most of their conference road games have been against the top half of the league.
Yet, we have been perfect at home, and they have been perfectly bad on the road. We won by 25 in Hec-Ed. Even though that was when we were playing better offense, back then, it's hard to see them beating us on the road. They did beat Colorado on the road, but we are a lot better than Colorado.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us, and a Quad 1 game for the Huskies.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Washington plays mostly "that zone". They played some man earlier in the season, but they have been using it less as the season goes on.
Most of our offensive stats have gotten worse since we first played the Huskies, but perhaps that shouldn't be a surprise. We have been playing much better defenses.
Here are KenPom ratings of defenses we have played:
Utah | 23 |
Arizona | 33 |
Arizona St | 41 |
USC | 46 |
WSU | 52 |
Washington is #94.
Meanwhile USC is #1 in 2-point defense. ASU is #3, Utah is #13, and Arizona is #32. Washington is #120.
The Huskies just don't present the same defensive challenge that other recent opponents have presented.
We have gotten better at a few things lately. We have improved our offensive rebounding, free throw shooting, and we are assisting on more baskets.
Washington Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 93 | 20 |
Torvick Rank | 101 | 28 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 71 | 75 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 94 of 363 | 239 |
FG Percent | 42% | 46% |
Effective FG Percent | 47.3% (61) | 51.3% (125) |
3-Pt Percent | 30.0% (28) | 35.9% (73) |
3-Pt Rate | 37.4% (178) | 27.9% (350) |
2-Pt Percent | 48.6% (120) | 50.3% (169) |
FT Percent | 72% | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 33.3% (337) | 34.8% (22) |
Assist Percent | 59.9% (343) | 51.3% (163) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 18.2% (205) | 15.0% (12) |
Block Percent | 15.1% (8) | 6.3% (16) |
Washington's zone is very good at keeping the other team from shooting a high percentage. Unlike the Matisse Thybul days, they are not very good at turning the other team over. They also allow a lot of assisted baskets. Clearly the way to beat the Husky defense is to pass the ball, not try to beat it one-on-one. Our assist percent isn't great, but it has improved lately.
The Huskies are very good at defending the three-point shot, but not so good against the two-point shot. We don't shoot a lot of 3's, and we are very good inside the arc.
They are elite at one thing and terrible at the another. Their real strength is blocking shots, where they are one of the best in the country. We are just as good at not getting our shots blocked. This is real strength against strength. If we can avoid getting our shots blocked, we should have a good scoring game.
The real problem for Washington is their defensive board. They give up a ton of offensive rebounds. We are excellent on the offensive boards, so we should be able to exploit this.
Washington plays a moderate tempo, and is playing faster than they were for our first meeting. We are starting to play really slowly. This may be the result of playing tougher defenses, but it also may just be that Cronin is more comfortable playing slowly.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S OFFENSE
This one is pretty simple. Washington’s scoring attack has been an inconsistent and chaotic mess. UW is tied for 295h in the NCAA with 11.6 assists per game, ranked 277th in three-point field goal percentage (32.0%) and 216th in points per game (69.9). Now they have to face one of the best defenses in the country.
UCLA Defense | Washington Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 3 | 156 |
Torvick Rank | 4 | 146 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 61 | 70 |
FG Percent | 41% | 43% |
Effective FG Percent | 47,4% (62) | 49.1% (247) |
3-Pt Percent | 30.4% (36) | 32.0% (277) |
3-Pt Rate | 40.0% (270) | 34.7% (178) |
2-Pt Percent | 60.3% (169) | 49.8% (192) |
FT Percent | 74.9% (55) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.6% (182) | 26.8% (239) |
Assist Percent | 52.8% (218) | 46.3% (297) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.7% (8) | 20.0% (277) |
Block Percent | 12.6% (33) | 11.0% (319) |
It's hard to find anything UW does does well on offense or even decently They don't shoot the three that well. They are a little better at the two. They aren't very good on the offensive boards. They turn the ball over a lot. Only Colorado turns the ball over more often in the Pac-12.
They get a lot of their shots blocked. They don't get a lot of assists, but they aren't great one-on-one players. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
They are good at one thing: Shooting free throws (in spite of Meah's odd way of shooting them). But they are #205 in the US at getting to the line. We are #51 at not fouling.
It makes you wonder how they have good wins. Saint Mary's had a terrible shooting night, and the Huskies had an unusually good night shooting against Colorado.
Advantage: Big for UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
Washington | UCLA | |
Rebound margin | -3.8 | 5.0 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
We are better on the boards, and we handle the ball better. The Huskies may be tall, but they don't rebound well out of the zone.
We lead the Pac-12 in offensive rebounds (which is kind of amazing for a slow-tempo team). Washington is 10th.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Washington's starting lineup has changed since our first meeting. One reason is that Noah Williams has returned from injury, but it may be more that PJ Fuller and Jamal Bey just aren't all that good. So Hopkins now starts Noah Williams and Keyon Menifield.
The Huskies are tall, but not as tall as some of the other teams we have played lately. The Pac-12 is a very tall league, with the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th tallest teams.
We also have #12, #17, #26, and #39, before you get to #42 Washington. They should look short, compared to the other teams in the league. (We are midgets at #192.)
Washington leads the country in starters pronounced "Key-On".
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds/40 Min. | Assists | Blocks/40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
Keion Brooks F | Sr | 6'7" 320 | 5-star 24 | 21 | 35 | 18 | 8.2 | 1 | 1.6 | 43% | 28% | 28% | 0.4 |
Cole Bajema G | Sr | 6'7" 190 | 4-star 112 | 23 | 32 | 10 | 5.7 | 1 | 41% | 37% | 63% | 0.5 | |
Noah Williams G | Sr | 6'5" 195 | 3-star 305 | 11 | 26 | 10 | 5.0 | 2 | 39% | 31% | 35% | 1.0 | |
Keyon Menifield | Fr | 6'1" 170 | 3-star 199 | 23 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 41% | 36% | 35% | 2.0 | ||
Braxton Meah C | Jr | 7'1" 250 | 3-star 224 | 22 | 26 | 9 | 10.9 | 1 | 2.6 | 68% | 0.5 | ||
PJ Fuller II G | Sr | 6'4" 175 | 4-star 76 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 1.1 | 40% | 30% | 0.9 | ||
Jamal Bey G | Sr | 6' 6" 210 | 4-star 105 | 22 | 24 | 6 | 5.2 | 1 | 35% | 29% | 56% | 1.3 | |
Koren Johnson G | Fr | 6'2" 175 | 3-star 121 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 41% | 36% | 0.9 | |||
Langston Wilson F | Sr | 6'9" 215 | #1 JUCO | 12 | 7 | 2 | 10.4 | 0 | 50% | 20% | 0.3 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks gets the headlines. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding. Don't let his 18 points per game impress you. He is doing that while shooting 43% from the field and 28% from the arc. He scores a lot because he shoots a lot. Then again, he may be forced to shoot a lot, because there is no other reliable scorer for the Huskies. 43% from the field is the best on the team for the wings. Like a number of Huskies, he turns the ball over a lot.
Cole Bajema is their best 3-point shooter at 37% The Bruins have 4 players who shoot the three better than Bajema. He leads the team in 3-point attempts. He also rebounds pretty well for a Husky.
Noah Williams, who transferred from arch-rival WSU, continues to score quite a bit while not shooting a good percentage. He will take a lot of high-difficulty shots, and make some of them. He can have a high-scoring game, but he is just as likely to shoot the Huskies in the foot.
My favorite non-Bruin in the Pac 12 is freshman Keyon Menifield, who leads the team in assists and A/TO ratio. He is the only good ball-handler on the team. Putting him into the starting lineup over seniors was an excellent move by Hopkins. Menifield was lightly recruited, because of his size. (He's more likley 5'11" than the 6'1" he is listed at.) However, the kid is quick and can play.
I love his pace and decisiveness. He never casually dribbles up the floor. He pushes it up the floor at a run every time. You will rarely see him dribble in one spot or hold the ball for long. If he is dibbling, he is making some kind of move. If he doesn't see an opportunity, he doesn't hold on to the ball. He immediately passes it to a teammate.
As his shooting improves, I think the kid wlll be a star. I also think he will end up with fans who call themselves the "Meniacs".
I also like Fresno transfer Braxton Meah. The 7'1" center is only averaging 9 points per game, but he is shooting shooting 68%. Add in 7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game and he is contributing a lot. This is a surprise, since he didn't show much at Fresno. But he is flourishing in Seattle. He was going to be sharing minutes with Oregon transfer Franck Kepnang, but Franck went down for the season with an ACL tear.
PJ Fuller and Jamal Bey have lost their starting roles, probably because they haven't been productive on offense. Fuller leads them in steals with 1.2 per game. It's hard to believe that two seasons ago, Bey led the Pac-12 in three-point shooting. His numbers have gotten worse every year since them.
Koren Johnson is a nice-looking freshman guard. He leads the team in steals per 40 minutes,
Langston Wilson is a very athletic big man, who can rebound and block shots. He's mostly used to give Meah some rest or when Meah gets into foul trouble.
CONCLUSION
We are a great defense. Washington is a bad offense. In Seattle, they scored 49 points against us. We are playing better defense than we were a month ago. None the the computers think they will score more than 59 points. 59 points will not be enough points to beat us.
Washington is good at three things:
- Shooting free throws
- Blocking shots
- Defending the three-point shot.
None of those bode well for the Huskies. We don't foul a lot, we don't get a lot of shots blocked, and we don't shoot a lot of threes.
We are more talented, better coached, and better at every phase of the game. I don't see any reason to think the Huskies can win this game.
But even a blind Husky finds a big-time win once in a while. You might wonder how they beat a really good St. Mary's team. St. Mary's had a terrible shooting night. The only team that held them to a lower percentage all year was Houston, who is a defensive juggernaut. St. Mary's attempted 29 three-point shots and had their worst three-point shooting game of the season. St. Mary's scored 58 points in regulation and 6 points in overtime.
We just need to move the ball on offense, and not take 29 three-point shots. We haven't attempted more than 26 all season.
They won't score a lot against us. As long as we make shots, we should win easily.
Go Bruins!