Post by mhbruin on Dec 13, 2022 13:19:06 GMT -8
Maryland is led by first-year coach Kevin Willard, who was hired after 11 years at Seton Hall. He took over a 15-17 team and has them off to a rousing 8-2 start. I imagine the fans in College Park are pretty elated over the start.
What is the difference under Coach Willard? Maryland plays REALLY hard. It's going to take maximum effort to match their intensity.
METRICS
Estimated Line: Maryland -0.5
Line: Maryland -1.5
ESPN Predictor: Maryland wins; 58% of the time
Nolan Prediction: Maryland wins 72-66 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 71-70, 53% of the time.
This computers see this as a close matchup, with Maryland a slight favorite, primarily because they are playing at home.
MARYLAND''S RECORD
Maryland's Quad 1 win was at home over Illinois by 5. They lost to Tennessee by 3 (neutral) and to Wisconsin by 5 in Madison.
Playing at home: Advantage Maryland
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS MARYLAND'S DEFENSE
Maryland plays pressure, man-to-man defense. They collapse aggressively when the ball goes inside.
They will press, and they are good at it.
What happens when an irresistible offense meets an immovable defense? We are about to find out. UCLA is an elite offense. Maryland plays outstanding defense.
Another interesting question if whether they will be able to block our shots. We don't get blocked and they block a lot of them.
We do have a few factors in our favor. We don't turn the ball over, and they don't generate a ton of turnovers. We are very good on the offensive boards and they give up offensive rebounds.
Advantage: Slight for UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS MARYLAND''S OFFENSE
Maryland is not a great 3-point shooting team, and we are pretty good at defending the three. However, this is now how this end of the floor will be decided.
This matchup will be decide inside the arc. They are a very good 2-point shooting team. A lot of this is by Jahmir Young beating his man and by Donta Scott powering to the basket. They are also good on their offensive board and get a lot of second-chance points. We aren't that good in defending the two-point shot or preventing offensive boards. We need to do both well to win this game.
Advantage: Maryland, but not huge.
OTHER FACTORS
Maryland will fight like crazy for every board. They aren't big and they aren't physical about it They are quick and good leapers. We need to be just as determined to fight for those boards.
As usual, because we don't turn the ball over, we have a significantly better A/TO ratio.
PLAYERS
Maryland is not a big team. Julian Reese at a slim 6'9" it their tallest guy in the rotation. They are also not a bunch of highly rated players. They are a bunch of quick guys who play hard.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Maryland goes 9 deep, and it is a very experienced group. They play 5 seniors, 3 Juniors, a sophomore, and a freshman (who only plays around 7 minutes per game. 4 of their five starters are seniors.
If you are a big fan of star rankings, you would not be impressed by Maryland. Most of these guys were not highly recruited out of high school.
Scott and Young are their leading scorers. They call Scott a forward, but you could just as easily call him a 4th guard. He will play quite a bit on the perimeter.
Jahmir Young, their PG, is in his first season with the Terps. He came to Maryland after 3 years at Charlotte. He is lightning quick, and he is very effective at beating his man, getting into the lane and either getting to the hoop or passing it off. His penetration is very effective in getting guys to help and out of position on defense. He is an excellent passer. In other words, he does everything you would want a PG to do, except shoot the 3 at a high percentage.
Danta Scott is stronger than most of the guys who try to defend him. He probably shoots too many threes, since he is most effective at muscling his way to the basket or posting up defenders. Although Reese is taller, Scott leads the team in blocks.
Hakim Hart tends to get lost a bit, buy he is by far their best 3-point shooter. He is also an excellent passer.
Julian Reese is their "big". He is their highest rated recruit on the roster. He's a double-figure scorer and lead the team in rebounding.
Don Carey is the last starter. He is also new to the team, coming from Mount St Mary's. He's an excellent defender, and he is not on the floor for his offense. Most of his shots are 3's, and he is pretty bad at making them. We should probably be happy to see him take a lot of 3's.
Ian Martinez is their backup PG, and like Young, he is also lightning quick. He is also a total pest on defense. He will get up into anyone with the ball and will aggressively go for steals. He leads the team in steals per minutes and fouls per minute.
Patrick Emilien was terrific in Eight Mile. He is at his third school in his 5 years, after stints at Western Michigan and St Francis-Brooklyn. He is their backup "center" and they are even smaller in the post when he is on the floor. He's a good athlete and a capable rebounder and shot blocker, but not much of an offensive threat.
Basically, other than Martinez, whenever Maryland goes to their bench, there is a significant drop-off in production.
CONCLUSION
This is going to be a tough game. Playing on the road it always tough and we will be a long way from home and in a very hostile environment. We have Kentucky waiting in the wings. We can't afford another chapter of A Tale of Two Halves. (It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,) We cannot relax if we get off to an early lead. Maryland plays with maximum effort, particularly on defense and on rebounding.
We are the more talented team. If we match that effort for 40 minutes, we should win. HOWEVER, I don't think we have shown that kind of effort for 40 minutes yet this season. We should score on them. This game will come down to our defense and rebounding.
One small advantage for us. The game starts at 9 pm in College Park, which is a bit late for them.
I this will be a close game, but not one of those games with a zillion ties and lead changes, I expect runs where one team pulls ahead, but the other team catches up.
Go Bruins
What is the difference under Coach Willard? Maryland plays REALLY hard. It's going to take maximum effort to match their intensity.
METRICS
Line: Maryland -1.5
ESPN Predictor: Maryland wins; 58% of the time
Torvick Predictor: Maryland wins 50% of the time.71-70.
Nolan Prediction: Maryland wins 72-66 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 71-70, 53% of the time.
| Maryland | UCLA | |
| NOT | 17 | 14 |
| KenPom Rank | 17 | 8 |
| Rank Sagarin | 17 | 9 |
| Torvick Rank | 19 | 5 |
| SOS | 89 | 125 |
| Record | 8-2 | 8-2 |
This computers see this as a close matchup, with Maryland a slight favorite, primarily because they are playing at home.
MARYLAND''S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 |
| Maryland | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 5-0 |
Maryland's Quad 1 win was at home over Illinois by 5. They lost to Tennessee by 3 (neutral) and to Wisconsin by 5 in Madison.
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 1-2 |
| Maryland Home | 5-0 |
Playing at home: Advantage Maryland
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS MARYLAND'S DEFENSE
Maryland plays pressure, man-to-man defense. They collapse aggressively when the ball goes inside.
They will press, and they are good at it.
Maryland Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 28 | 7 |
| Torvick Rank | 19 | 7 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 61 | 81 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 242of 358 | 147 |
| FG Percent | 38% | 50% |
| Effective FG Percent | 42.8% (16) | 55.2% (35) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 27,6% (25) | 36.6% (75) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 33.1% (67) | 28.9% (341) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 43.6 (30) | 52.5% (229) |
| FT Percent | 73% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.9% (184) | 33.2% (63) |
| Assist Percent | 43.2% (40) | 52.3% (146) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 18.7% (194) | 14.6% (7) |
| Block Percent | 11.3% (79) | 5.0% (13) |
What happens when an irresistible offense meets an immovable defense? We are about to find out. UCLA is an elite offense. Maryland plays outstanding defense.
Another interesting question if whether they will be able to block our shots. We don't get blocked and they block a lot of them.
We do have a few factors in our favor. We don't turn the ball over, and they don't generate a ton of turnovers. We are very good on the offensive boards and they give up offensive rebounds.
Advantage: Slight for UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS MARYLAND''S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Maryland Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 24 | 23 |
| Torvick Rank | 24 | 19 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 63 | 76 |
| FG Percent | 43% | 47% |
| Effective FG Percent | 49.5% (159) | 52.9% (82) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.2% (84) | 31.1% (270) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 41.3% (287) | 39.7% (122) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 50.4% (199) | 56.9% (21) |
| FT Percent | 72.2% (126) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.9% (119) | 32.9% (71) |
| Assist Percent | 53.8% (235) | 50.9% (189) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 25.1% (15) | 17.4% (90) |
| Block Percent | 10.3% (107) | 7.8% (107) |
Maryland is not a great 3-point shooting team, and we are pretty good at defending the three. However, this is now how this end of the floor will be decided.
This matchup will be decide inside the arc. They are a very good 2-point shooting team. A lot of this is by Jahmir Young beating his man and by Donta Scott powering to the basket. They are also good on their offensive board and get a lot of second-chance points. We aren't that good in defending the two-point shot or preventing offensive boards. We need to do both well to win this game.
Advantage: Maryland, but not huge.
OTHER FACTORS
| Maryland | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
Maryland will fight like crazy for every board. They aren't big and they aren't physical about it They are quick and good leapers. We need to be just as determined to fight for those boards.
As usual, because we don't turn the ball over, we have a significantly better A/TO ratio.
PLAYERS
Maryland is not a big team. Julian Reese at a slim 6'9" it their tallest guy in the rotation. They are also not a bunch of highly rated players. They are a bunch of quick guys who play hard.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Donta Scott F | Sr | 6.7" 230 | 3-star 145 | 10 | 31 | 14 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 45% | 33% | 38% | 1.0 |
| Jahmir Young G | Sr | 6'1" 185 | 3-star 235 | 10 | 29 | 14 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 43% | 29% | 32% | 1.7 |
| Hakim Hart G | Sr | 6'8" 205 | 3-star 467 | 10 | 31 | 12 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 53% | 43% | 46% | 1.9 |
| Julian Reese F | So | 6'9" 230 | 4-star 60 | 10 | 27 | 12 | 11.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 75% | --- | 0.5 | |
| Don Carey G | Sr | 6'5" 197 | Unranked | 10 | 26 | 7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 30% | 24% | 83% | 0.4 | |
| Ian Martinez G | Jr | 6'3" 185 | 4-star 120 | 10 | 16 | 6 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 44% | 29% | 10% | 0.9 | |
| Jahari Long G | Jr | 6'5" 200 | 3-star 255 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 47% | 50% | 1.9 | ||
| Patrick Emilien F | Sr 5 | 6' 7: 210 | Unranked | 9 | 17 | 2 | 7.8 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 38% | --- | 0.3 | |
| Noah Batchelor F | Fr | 6'6" 185 | 3-star 205 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9.1 | 0.1 | 31% | 29% | 0.3 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Maryland goes 9 deep, and it is a very experienced group. They play 5 seniors, 3 Juniors, a sophomore, and a freshman (who only plays around 7 minutes per game. 4 of their five starters are seniors.
If you are a big fan of star rankings, you would not be impressed by Maryland. Most of these guys were not highly recruited out of high school.
Scott and Young are their leading scorers. They call Scott a forward, but you could just as easily call him a 4th guard. He will play quite a bit on the perimeter.
Jahmir Young, their PG, is in his first season with the Terps. He came to Maryland after 3 years at Charlotte. He is lightning quick, and he is very effective at beating his man, getting into the lane and either getting to the hoop or passing it off. His penetration is very effective in getting guys to help and out of position on defense. He is an excellent passer. In other words, he does everything you would want a PG to do, except shoot the 3 at a high percentage.
Danta Scott is stronger than most of the guys who try to defend him. He probably shoots too many threes, since he is most effective at muscling his way to the basket or posting up defenders. Although Reese is taller, Scott leads the team in blocks.
Hakim Hart tends to get lost a bit, buy he is by far their best 3-point shooter. He is also an excellent passer.
Julian Reese is their "big". He is their highest rated recruit on the roster. He's a double-figure scorer and lead the team in rebounding.
Don Carey is the last starter. He is also new to the team, coming from Mount St Mary's. He's an excellent defender, and he is not on the floor for his offense. Most of his shots are 3's, and he is pretty bad at making them. We should probably be happy to see him take a lot of 3's.
Ian Martinez is their backup PG, and like Young, he is also lightning quick. He is also a total pest on defense. He will get up into anyone with the ball and will aggressively go for steals. He leads the team in steals per minutes and fouls per minute.
Patrick Emilien was terrific in Eight Mile. He is at his third school in his 5 years, after stints at Western Michigan and St Francis-Brooklyn. He is their backup "center" and they are even smaller in the post when he is on the floor. He's a good athlete and a capable rebounder and shot blocker, but not much of an offensive threat.
Basically, other than Martinez, whenever Maryland goes to their bench, there is a significant drop-off in production.
CONCLUSION
This is going to be a tough game. Playing on the road it always tough and we will be a long way from home and in a very hostile environment. We have Kentucky waiting in the wings. We can't afford another chapter of A Tale of Two Halves. (It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,) We cannot relax if we get off to an early lead. Maryland plays with maximum effort, particularly on defense and on rebounding.
We are the more talented team. If we match that effort for 40 minutes, we should win. HOWEVER, I don't think we have shown that kind of effort for 40 minutes yet this season. We should score on them. This game will come down to our defense and rebounding.
One small advantage for us. The game starts at 9 pm in College Park, which is a bit late for them.
I this will be a close game, but not one of those games with a zillion ties and lead changes, I expect runs where one team pulls ahead, but the other team catches up.
Go Bruins