Post by mhbruin on Sept 29, 2022 10:12:53 GMT -8
Senate Races As of September 29th
The big news in the past two weeks:
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numberscrossed out are from September 14th.
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,
Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70%80% / 76% / 65% (538)
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated September 22nd.
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Senate Races As of September 14th
The big news in the past two weeks:
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numberscrossed out are from August 27th.
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,
Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70%80% / 76% / 65% (538)
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
Don't freak out over the RCP changes. Trafalgar Group, which is an R-leaning organization, has dropped a bunch of polls in the last two weeks. No one else has released much.
* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.
The big news in the past two weeks:
- Overall, the number have changed slightly in favor of the Republicans. This basically puts things back where they were a month ago. These small movements are mostly noise and not significant. EXCEPT, ...
- Wisconsin has moved significantly in favor of Ron Johnson.
- Cook moves Arizona from "Tossup" to "Leans Dem"
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
- Lite: Polls only
- Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
- Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating. Nate Silver thinks this is the best predictor.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numbers
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,
Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70%
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
| Democratic Seats | Lite | Classic | Deluxe |
| 50 or More | 79% | 77% | 69% |
| 51 or more | 69% | 64% | 54% |
| 52 or more | 58% | 50% | 39% |
| 53 or more | 46% | 35% | 24% |
| 54 or more | 34% | 22% | 13% |
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 0.7% / 1.3% / 0.7% | 55% / 58% / 54% | -1.7% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 6,2% / 5.2% / 4.8% | 87% / 78% / 77% | 4.4% | Tossup -> Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 2.7% / 2.1% / 1.2% | 66% / 60% / 54% | 0.7% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 7.3% / 6.7% / 6.1% | 90% / 84% / 83% | 5.4% | Tossup -> Leans Dem | Tossup -> Leans Dem |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 9.2% / 8.8% / 7,6% | 90% / 89% / 86% | 9.3% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | -0.4% / -1.0% / -2.0% | 48% / 44% / 37% | -1.8% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 0.4% / -0.5% / -2.8% | 53% / 47% / 33% | -2.0% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 0.4% / -0.8% / -3.6% | 53% / 45% / 30% | -1.2% | Likely Rep-> Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Florida | Incumbent Rep | Demings | Rubio | -3.9% / -4.3% / -6.5% | 26% / 25% / 16% | -2.8% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
| State | Comments | Democrat | Republican |
| Nevada | Moving slightly toward the Republican. | Cortez Masto | Laxalt |
| Pennsylvania | Small gains for Oz. Fetterman still has a solid lead. | Fetterman | Oz |
| Georgia | Slight improvement for Warnock. Still a tossup. | Warnock | Walker |
| Arizona | Kelly is a solid favorite. Cooks moves to "Leans Dem". | Kelly | Masters |
| New Hampshire | Hassan has moved further ahead and seems very likely to win. | Hassan | Bolduc |
| Wisconsin | Ron Johnson has moved ahead in this race. | Barnes | Johnson |
| North Carolina | A tight race with a slight edge for Budd. | Beasley | Budd |
| Ohio | Another tight race with the edge for the Republican | Ryan | Vance |
| Florida | Demings is closing, but this still looks like a win for Rubio. | Demings | Rubio |
* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated September 22nd.
==================================================================
Senate Races As of September 14th
The big news in the past two weeks:
- Bolduc wins the Repub nomination in New Hampshire. He is a weak candidate and helps Hassan a lot.
- Sabato moves Arizona from "tossup" to "leans Democratic".
- Pennsylvania is looking solid for Fetterman
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
- Lite: Polls only
- Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
- Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating. Nate Silver thinks this is the best predictor.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numbers
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,
Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70%
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
| Democratic Seats | Lite | Classic | Deluxe |
| 50 or More | 82% | 79% | 70% |
| 51 or more | 74% | 68% | 56% 51 |
| 52 or more | 64% | 54% | 40% |
| 53 or more | 51% | 39% | 25% |
| 54 or more | 38% | 23% | 13% |
Don't freak out over the RCP changes. Trafalgar Group, which is an R-leaning organization, has dropped a bunch of polls in the last two weeks. No one else has released much.
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 2.6% / 3.0% / 1.8% | 65% / 66% / 60% | -1.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 8.9% / 7.5% / 6.3% | 92% / 85% / 82% | 6.2% | Tossup -> Leans Dem | Tossup -> Leans Dem |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 2.7% / 1.9% / 1.1% | 64% / 58% / 53% | -0.5% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 7.8% / 6.8% / 5.1% | 90% / 84% / 77% | 4.0% 8 | Tossup -> Leans Dem | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 5.9% / 7.5% / 6.7% | 77% / 83% / 81% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | 4.4% / 2.2% / tied | 73% / 62% / 50% | 4.3% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 0.7% / 0.3% / -2.2% | 54% / 51% / 36% | -1.3% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 1.6% / -0.8% / -3.6% | 59% / 46% / 31% | -2.3% | Likely Rep-> Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Florida | Incumbent Rep | Demings | Rubio | -4.5% / -6.3% / -7.9% | 23% / 18% / 13% | -2.3% 4.0% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
| State | Comments | Democrat | Republican |
| Nevada | Moving slightly toward the Republican. | Cortez Masto | Laxalt |
| Pennsylvania | Fetterman pulling away. Looks like clear Democrat pickup. | Fetterman | Oz |
| Georgia | Moving slightly toward the Republican. | Warnock | Walker |
| Arizona | Kelly is pulling away. Looking safe. Sabato has changed the status in the last two weeks to "Leans Dem". | Kelly | Masters |
| New Hampshire | Bolduc wins the Republican nomination, which helps Hassan a lot. | Hassan | Bolduc |
| Wisconsin | Barnes chances to unseat Ron Johnson seem to be improving. | Barnes | Johnson |
| North Carolina | An uphill climb, but within reach | Beasley | Budd |
| Ohio | Another uphill climb. This looks tougher than North Carolina. | Ryan | Vance |
| Florida | A long shot, but it might be a bit early to write this one off. | Demings | Rubio |
* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.