Post by mhbruin on Sept 14, 2022 10:19:05 GMT -8
Senate Races As of September 14th
The big news in the past two weeks:
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numberscrossed out are from August 27th.
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,
Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70%80% / 76% / 65% (538)
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
Don't freak out over the RCP changes. Trafalgar Group, which is an R-leaning organization, has dropped a bunch of polls in the last two weeks. No one else has released much.
* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.
==================================================================
Senate Races As of August 27th
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numberscrossed out are from August 13th.
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 4% in the last 15 days,
Democrats win Senate: 80% / 76% / 65%78% / 74% / 61% (538)
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
While the races seem to mostly be moving toward the Democrats, Georgia seems pretty stable. Georgia seems like the most critical race.
At this point the Democrats look like they will pick up a seat in Pennsylvania. Cook has moved it from "Tossup" to "Leans Democratic".
If Warnock wins Georgia, the Democrats look very solid for 51 with a chance at more. Without Georgia, the Democrats have a hard road to get past 50.
Another race to watch is Wisconsin. QANON Ron is still considered the favorite, but Barnes' chances have improved a lot in the last couple of weeks.
The Democrats have a shot at picking up a seat in North Carolina.
Ohio and Florida are long shots. The Democrats have gained in both states in the past two weeks, but they are still fighting uphill battles.
Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.
* Sabato was last updated August 24th.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
==================================================================
Senate Races As of August 13th
Since July 29thm most Democrats have had small gains, but it is not clear if the Georgia race has moved at all.
Pennsylvania and Arizona are looking pretty solid for the Democrats, which would result in picking up a seat.
Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin all seem to be close. The Democrats are playing defense in GA and NV and offense for the NC and WI.
Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.
* Sabato was last updated August 2nd.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Florida Primary: Aug 23
==================================================================
Senate Races As of July 29th
Democrats win Senate: 72% / 68% / 56% (538)
The most likely scenario is the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and keep their other seats. That would give them 51 Senate seats.
51 Senate seats is not enough to take power away from Manchin and Sinema.
The other Republican seats are seen as pretty safe, but none of the polling data should have them resting easy.
The biggest danger for the Democrats is losing Georgia. Nevada is mildly at risk.
* Sabato was last updated June 15th.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
Arizona Primary: Aug 2
Wisconsin Primary: Aug 9
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Senate Races As of July 8th
Democrats win Senate: 47% (538)
The 538 and Real Clear Politics "Lead" columns are based on polling data. The other columns are based on polls, incumbency, national trends, and historical trends in the states.
The big news in the past two weeks:
- Bolduc wins the Repub nomination in New Hampshire. He is a weak candidate and helps Hassan a lot.
- Sabato moves Arizona from "tossup" to "leans Democratic".
- Pennsylvania is looking solid for Fetterman
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
- Lite: Polls only
- Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
- Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating. Nate Silver thinks this is the best predictor.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numbers
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,
Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70%
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
| Democratic Seats | Lite | Classic | Deluxe |
| 50 or More | 82% | 79% | 70% |
| 51 or more | 74% | 68% | 56% 51 |
| 52 or more | 64% | 54% | 40% |
| 53 or more | 51% | 39% | 25% |
| 54 or more | 38% | 23% | 13% |
Don't freak out over the RCP changes. Trafalgar Group, which is an R-leaning organization, has dropped a bunch of polls in the last two weeks. No one else has released much.
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 2.6% / 3.0% / 1.8% | 65% / 66% / 60% | -1.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 8.9% / 7.5% / 6.3% | 92% / 85% / 82% | 6.2% | Tossup -> Leans Dem | Tossup -> Leans Dem |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 2.7% / 1.9% / 1.1% | 64% / 58% / 53% | -0.5% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 7.8% / 6.8% / 5.1% | 90% / 84% / 77% | 4.0% 8 | Tossup -> Leans Dem | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 5.9% / 7.5% / 6.7% | 77% / 83% / 81% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | 4.4% / 2.2% / tied | 73% / 62% / 50% | 4.3% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 0.7% / 0.3% / -2.2% | 54% / 51% / 36% | -1.3% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 1.6% / -0.8% / -3.6% | 59% / 46% / 31% | -2.3% | Likely Rep-> Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Florida | Incumbent Rep | Demings | Rubio | -4.5% / -6.3% / -7.9% | 23% / 18% / 13% | -2.3% 4.0% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
| State | Comments | Democrat | Republican |
| Nevada | Moving slightly toward the Republican. | Cortez Masto | Laxalt |
| Pennsylvania | Fetterman pulling away. Looks like clear Democrat pickup. | Fetterman | Oz |
| Georgia | Moving slightly toward the Republican. | Warnock | Walker |
| Arizona | Kelly is pulling away. Looking safe. Sabato has changed the status in the last two weeks to "Leans Dem". | Kelly | Masters |
| New Hampshire | Bolduc wins the Republican nomination, which helps Hassan a lot. | Hassan | Bolduc |
| Wisconsin | Barnes chances to unseat Ron Johnson seem to be improving. | Barnes | Johnson |
| North Carolina | An uphill climb, but within reach | Beasley | Budd |
| Ohio | Another uphill climb. This looks tougher than North Carolina. | Ryan | Vance |
| Florida | A long shot, but it might be a bit early to write this one off. | Demings | Rubio |
* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.
==================================================================
Senate Races As of August 27th
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
- Lite: Polls only
- Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
- Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating. Nate Silver thinks this is the best predictor.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numbers
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 4% in the last 15 days,
Democrats win Senate: 80% / 76% / 65%
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.
| Democratic Seats | Lite | Classic | Deluxe |
| 50 or More | 80% | 76% | 65% |
| 51 or more | 71% | 64% | 51% |
| 52 or more | 61% | 50% | 36% |
| 53 or more | 48% | 35% | 22% |
| 54 or more | 35% | 21% | 12% |
While the races seem to mostly be moving toward the Democrats, Georgia seems pretty stable. Georgia seems like the most critical race.
At this point the Democrats look like they will pick up a seat in Pennsylvania. Cook has moved it from "Tossup" to "Leans Democratic".
If Warnock wins Georgia, the Democrats look very solid for 51 with a chance at more. Without Georgia, the Democrats have a hard road to get past 50.
Another race to watch is Wisconsin. QANON Ron is still considered the favorite, but Barnes' chances have improved a lot in the last couple of weeks.
The Democrats have a shot at picking up a seat in North Carolina.
Ohio and Florida are long shots. The Democrats have gained in both states in the past two weeks, but they are still fighting uphill battles.
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 3.5% / 3.6% / 2.0% | 68% / 69% / 60% | 2.3% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 8.6% / 6.8% / 4.9% | 90% / 82% / 75% | 7.8% | Tossup | Tossup -> Leans Dem |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 2.8% / 1.8% / 0.8% | 64% / 57% / 51% | 4.4% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 9.0% / 6.8% / 4.2% | 88% / 82% / 71% | 8.5% | Tossup | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 5.2% / 6.5% / 5.9% | 73% / 79% / 77% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | 2.2% / tied / -1.8% | 61% / 49% /40% | 4.3% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 1.6% / 0.6% / -2.2% | 58% / 53% / 37% | -2.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 0.2% / -2.2% / -4.8% | 50% / 38% / 26% | -3.7% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
| Florida | Incumbent Rep | Demings | Rubio | -2.8% / -5,8% / -7.6% | 34% / 22% / 15% | 4.0% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.
* Sabato was last updated August 24th.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
==================================================================
Senate Races As of August 13th
| Democratic Seats | Lite | Classic | Deluxe |
| 50 or More | 79% | 73% | 61% |
| 51 or more | 69% | 61% | 46% |
| 52 or more | 57% | 46% 42% | 32% |
| 53 or more | 44% | 31% | 19% |
| 54 or more | 30% | 18% | 9% |
Since July 29thm most Democrats have had small gains, but it is not clear if the Georgia race has moved at all.
Pennsylvania and Arizona are looking pretty solid for the Democrats, which would result in picking up a seat.
Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin all seem to be close. The Democrats are playing defense in GA and NV and offense for the NC and WI.
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 2.6% / 3.0% / 1.4% | 63% / 65% / 57% | 3.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 9.3% / 6.5% / 3.3% | 90% / 81% / 67% | 8.7% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 2.8% / 1.8% / 0.6% | 65% / 57% / 51% | 4.4% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 10.5% / 7.5% / 4.5% | 91% / 83% / 71% 80% / 76% / 65% | 9.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 4.9% / 6.1% / 5.5% | 72% / 77% / 75% 71% / 76% / 74% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | -3.6% / -2.4% / -3.4% | 34% / 38% / 33% 35% / 37% / 32% | 2.0% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 1.0% / 0.1% / -2.7% | 56% / 51% / 34% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 4.8% / -1.0% / -5.6% | 79% / 45% / 25% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep | |
| Florida | Incumbent Rep | Demings | Rubio | -6.3% / -9.0% / -10% | 20% / 12% / 9% | -9.0% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.
* Sabato was last updated August 2nd.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Florida Primary: Aug 23
==================================================================
Senate Races As of July 29th
Democrats win Senate: 72% / 68% / 56% (538)
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Projection Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 2.3% / 2.5% / 0.9% | 62% / 63% / 55% | 3.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 8.3% / 5.7% / 2.5% | 87% / 77% / 63% | 7.5% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 3.0% / 1.8% / 0.4% | 66% / 56% / 49% | 4.8% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 7.5% / 5.7% / 3.1% | 80% / 76% / 65% | Tossup | Tossup | |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 4.5% / 5.8% / 5.1% | 71% / 76% / 74% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | -3.6% / -2.6% / -3.6% | 35% / 37% / 32% | 2.0% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 0.1% / -0.7% / -3.4% | 50% / 46% / 31% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 2.8% / -2.0% / -6.5% | 64% / 40% / 22% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
The most likely scenario is the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and keep their other seats. That would give them 51 Senate seats.
51 Senate seats is not enough to take power away from Manchin and Sinema.
The other Republican seats are seen as pretty safe, but none of the polling data should have them resting easy.
The biggest danger for the Democrats is losing Georgia. Nevada is mildly at risk.
* Sabato was last updated June 15th.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
Arizona Primary: Aug 2
Wisconsin Primary: Aug 9
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Senate Races As of July 8th
Democrats win Senate: 47% (538)
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato | Cook |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 0.9% | 51% | - | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 0.4% | 52% | Tossup | Tossup | |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 1.0% | 44% | 1.6% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 58% | Tossup | Tossup | ||
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 70% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem | |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | 28% | Leans Rep | Tossup | ||
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | -1.7% | 25% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 1.8% | 16% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
The 538 and Real Clear Politics "Lead" columns are based on polling data. The other columns are based on polls, incumbency, national trends, and historical trends in the states.