Mon - The Counter-Attack Has Begun

Taking the Fun Out of Fundy

Seven years ago, the sun, moon and Earth aligned to produce a tidal surge in the Bay of Fundy, pushing the sea within centimetres of a national rail line connecting the eastern Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

The water lapping at the edges of the train tracks marked the zenith of an 18-year astronomical cycle due to repeat in about a decade’s time – and fuelled concerns among locals conscious of the ever-present flood risk.

Today, even a heavy storm risks inundating the slender Chignecto Isthmus, a 21km-wide (13-mile) land bridge at the edge of the Bay of Fundy that serves as a vital economic corridor, carrying about $27bn ($35bn Canadian) in trade annually (PDF). The Bay of Fundy already boasts the highest tides in the world, and with sea levels in this region set to rise by about a metre (3ft) by 2100 – and possibly by more than double that under extreme scenarios – the risks facing this tiny strip of land have never been greater.

“This might be the most vulnerable spot in eastern Canada,” said David Kogon, mayor of the town of Amherst, Nova Scotia, which lies at the southern boundary of the isthmus. By 2100, sea level rise could potentially put up to a third of his town underwater and sever the only viable transport link between the province of one million people and the rest of the country.





Kiss Your Nova Scotia Lox Goodbye

A House Divided (Written by a Guy From a Liberal Thinktank)

As we’ve been saying opposition to MAGA has been the driving force of the last two elections (6.5 pt Dem wins in 2018/2020, Dems win the House, Senate, Presidency) and with mass shootings, the end of Roe, fanatical abortion restrictions, a radicalized Supreme Court, extremist/terrible candidates, an unfolding criminal conspiracy involving dozens of top Republican officials to overturn an election it is now likely to be the most powerful force in this election as well. When the Republicans chose to run towards a politics the country had just rejected in record numbers twice, the GOP made the political physics of this election different from a traditional midterm. It’s our view that as of today the Senate is likely to stay in Democratic hands; a pickup of a 1-2-3 Senate seats by Dems not impossible; and Democrats are likely to outperform expectations in the House now. Will it be enough for Democrats to keep the House? It's pretty clear that Dems have a shot now, particularly with the fundraising advantages our candidates hold in key incumbent Senate and House races.

Some new data from Politico/Morning Consult helps shine a bit more light on this dynamic. For the GOP to have a good midterm either many Dems will have to stay home or switch to the GOP. Staying home is far less likely now. This means the GOP needs to give these voters a reason to come to them. And what do voters see when they look at the two parties in Congress:

Favorability Rating:
Dems in Congress 41-52 (-11)
Rs in Congress 35-58 (-23)

Schumer 28% McConnell 20%

Pelosi 33% McCarthy 21%

And in this Morning Consult analysis they find Dem approval on a wide set of issues improving, with Dems now leading the GOP by 6 points, 45-39. In the report Morning Consult writes: "the improvements represent good news for those working to hold control of the House and Senate, showing that at least some voters may be able to shake off their dim views of President Joe Biden when thinking about their votes in November." The ugliness of MAGA, and how hard it would be for voters to embrace a politics they rejected twice, has been overly discounted by analysts this cycle. The GOP is a big unpopular and extremist mess and folks just don't want to go there. And this was before the revelations about Trump's stealing of America's secrets.

He's Not the Only One Saying This

Democrats are closing the gap in the heated race to control the House of Representatives in November’s midterm elections, according to recent surveys and political analysts.

Though Republicans are generally still expected to take a majority in the House — for now — the races are growing tighter.

Republicans have held a narrow lead over Democrats this year in polls asking which party voters would support in a congressional election. But FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates top public-opinion surveys, reported that Democrats grabbed a half-percentage point advantage this month.

FiveThirtyEight attributes the gain and surprise wins for Democrats in two New York special elections earlier this month to anger about the Republican-hailed death of Roe v. Wade. “If the midterms were tomorrow, the Republicans might be in trouble,” one of FiveThirtyEight’s recent podcasts noted.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s approval rating has also ticked up. A recent Gallup survey put Biden’s job approval rating at 44%, the highest in a year.

In terms of House seats, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report lowered its projection for GOP pickups to between 10 to 20 seats — down from its previous 15 to 30 seats.

Cook also didn’t rule out the possibility that Democrats could hold on to the majority with an increased voter turnout, which is widely expected this year from an agitated electorate.

Typically, the party in power “doesn’t improve its electoral prospects in the final months of a midterm, but that’s where we appear to be,” noted Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin of nonpartisan election watcher Inside Elections, The Wall Street Journal reported.

They also chalk up Democrats’ improving fortunes to anger at Republicans over the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade — as well as to weak Republican candidates in key races, ongoing investigations into Donald Trump, and a drop in gas prices.

Crackers Graham Thinks We Are Just Like Iraq

Staunch Donald Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) ominously warned Sunday of “riots in the streets” if the former president is hit with charges for taking classified documents to his Mar-a-Lago home when he moved out of the White House.

“If there’s a prosecution of Donald Trump for mishandling classified information, after the [Hillary] Clinton debacle … there’ll be riots in the streets,” Graham said on Fox News’ “Sunday Night in America,” hosted by former South Carolina congressman Trey Gowdy (R).

Graham was referring to Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was secretary of state — a practice reportedly employed by both Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner to conduct official business when they were White House senior advisers in the Trump administration.