Post by mhbruin on Aug 13, 2022 10:20:15 GMT -8
Senate Races As of August 13th
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numberscrossed out are from July 29th.
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by 5.6% in the last 15 days,
Democrats win Senate: 78% / 74% / 61%72% / 68% / 56% (538)
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems a bit less than 50-50.
Since July 29thm most Democrats have had small gains, but it is not clear if the Georgia race has moved at all.
Pennsylvania and Arizona are looking pretty solid for the Democrats, which would result in picking up a seat.
Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin all seem to be close. The Democrats are playing defense in GA and NV and offense for the NC and WI.
Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.
* Sabato was last updated August 2nd.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Florida Primary: Aug 23
==================================================================
Senate Races As of July 29th
Democrats win Senate: 72% / 68% / 56% (538)
The most likely scenario is the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and keep their other seats. That would give them 51 Senate seats.
51 Senate seats is not enough to take power away from Manchin and Sinema.
The other Republican seats are seen as pretty safe, but none of the polling data should have them resting easy.
The biggest danger for the Democrats is losing Georgia. Nevada is mildly at risk.
* Sabato was last updated June 15th.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
Arizona Primary: Aug 2
Wisconsin Primary: Aug 9
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Senate Races As of July 8th
Democrats win Senate: 47% (538)
The 538 and Real Clear Politics "Lead" columns are based on polling data. The other columns are based on polls, incumbency, national trends, and historical trends in the states.
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
- Lite: Polls only
- Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
- Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Numbers
The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by 5.6% in the last 15 days,
Democrats win Senate: 78% / 74% / 61%
The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.
52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems a bit less than 50-50.
| Democratic Seats | Lite | Classic | Deluxe |
| 50 or More | 79% | 73% | 61% |
| 51 or more | 69% | 61% | 46% |
| 52 or more | 57% | 46% 42% | 32% |
| 53 or more | 44% | 31% | 19% |
| 54 or more | 30% | 18% | 9% |
Since July 29thm most Democrats have had small gains, but it is not clear if the Georgia race has moved at all.
Pennsylvania and Arizona are looking pretty solid for the Democrats, which would result in picking up a seat.
Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin all seem to be close. The Democrats are playing defense in GA and NV and offense for the NC and WI.
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 2.6% / 3.0% / 1.4% | 63% / 65% / 57% | 3.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 9.3% / 6.5% / 3.3% | 90% / 81% / 67% | 8.7% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 2.8% / 1.8% / 0.6% | 65% / 57% / 51% | 4.4% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 10.5% / 7.5% / 4.5% | 91% / 83% / 71% 80% / 76% / 65% | 9.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 4.9% / 6.1% / 5.5% | 72% / 77% / 75% 71% / 76% / 74% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | -3.6% / -2.4% / -3.4% | 34% / 38% / 33% 35% / 37% / 32% | 2.0% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 1.0% / 0.1% / -2.7% | 56% / 51% / 34% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 4.8% / -1.0% / -5.6% | 79% / 45% / 25% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep | |
| Florida | Incumbent Rep | Demings | Rubio | -6.3% / -9.0% / -10% | 20% / 12% / 9% | -9.0% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.
* Sabato was last updated August 2nd.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Florida Primary: Aug 23
==================================================================
Senate Races As of July 29th
Democrats win Senate: 72% / 68% / 56% (538)
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Projection Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 2.3% / 2.5% / 0.9% | 62% / 63% / 55% | 3.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 8.3% / 5.7% / 2.5% | 87% / 77% / 63% | 7.5% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 3.0% / 1.8% / 0.4% | 66% / 56% / 49% | 4.8% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 7.5% / 5.7% / 3.1% | 80% / 76% / 65% | Tossup | Tossup | |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 4.5% / 5.8% / 5.1% | 71% / 76% / 74% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | -3.6% / -2.6% / -3.6% | 35% / 37% / 32% | 2.0% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 0.1% / -0.7% / -3.4% | 50% / 46% / 31% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 2.8% / -2.0% / -6.5% | 64% / 40% / 22% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
The most likely scenario is the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and keep their other seats. That would give them 51 Senate seats.
51 Senate seats is not enough to take power away from Manchin and Sinema.
The other Republican seats are seen as pretty safe, but none of the polling data should have them resting easy.
The biggest danger for the Democrats is losing Georgia. Nevada is mildly at risk.
* Sabato was last updated June 15th.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
Arizona Primary: Aug 2
Wisconsin Primary: Aug 9
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Senate Races As of July 8th
Democrats win Senate: 47% (538)
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato | Cook |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 0.9% | 51% | - | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 0.4% | 52% | Tossup | Tossup | |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 1.0% | 44% | 1.6% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 58% | Tossup | Tossup | ||
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 70% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem | |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | 28% | Leans Rep | Tossup | ||
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | -1.7% | 25% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 1.8% | 16% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
The 538 and Real Clear Politics "Lead" columns are based on polling data. The other columns are based on polls, incumbency, national trends, and historical trends in the states.