Post by mhbruin on Jul 9, 2022 9:50:43 GMT -8
Senate Races As of July 29th
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Democrats win Senate: 72% / 68% / 56% (538)
The most likely scenario is the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and keep their other seats. That would give them 51 Senate seats.
51 Senate seats is not enough to take power away from Manchin and Sinema.
The other Republican seats are seen as pretty safe, but none of the polling data should have them resting easy.
The biggest danger for the Democrats is losing Georgia. Nevada is mildly at risk.
* Sabato was last updated June 15th.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
Arizona Primary: Aug 2
Wisconsin Primary: Aug 9
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Senate Races As of July 8th
Democrats win Senate: 47% (538)
The 538 and Real Clear Politics "Lead" columns are based on polling data. The other columns are based on polls, incumbency, national trends, and historical trends in the states.
NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.
- Lite: Polls only
- Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
- Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating.
Lite is most favorable to the Democrats
Democrats win Senate: 72% / 68% / 56% (538)
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Projection Vote Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato* | Cook+ |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 2.3% / 2.5% / 0.9% | 62% / 63% / 55% | 3.0% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 8.3% / 5.7% / 2.5% | 87% / 77% / 63% | 7.5% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 3.0% / 1.8% / 0.4% | 66% / 56% / 49% | 4.8% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 7.5% / 5.7% / 3.1% | 80% / 76% / 65% | Tossup | Tossup | |
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 4.5% / 5.8% / 5.1% | 71% / 76% / 74% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | -3.6% / -2.6% / -3.6% | 35% / 37% / 32% | 2.0% | Leans Rep | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | 0.1% / -0.7% / -3.4% | 50% / 46% / 31% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 2.8% / -2.0% / -6.5% | 64% / 40% / 22% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
The most likely scenario is the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and keep their other seats. That would give them 51 Senate seats.
51 Senate seats is not enough to take power away from Manchin and Sinema.
The other Republican seats are seen as pretty safe, but none of the polling data should have them resting easy.
The biggest danger for the Democrats is losing Georgia. Nevada is mildly at risk.
* Sabato was last updated June 15th.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.
Arizona Primary: Aug 2
Wisconsin Primary: Aug 9
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Senate Races As of July 8th
Democrats win Senate: 47% (538)
| State | Held By | Democrat | Republican | 538 Dem Lead | 538 Dem Win % | RCP Dem Lead | Sabato | Cook |
| Nevada | Incumbent Dem | Cortez Masto | Laxalt | 0.9% | 51% | - | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Rep - Open | Fetterman | Oz | 0.4% | 52% | Tossup | Tossup | |
| Georgia | Incumbent Dem | Warnock | Walker | 1.0% | 44% | 1.6% | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | Incumbent Dem | Kelly | Masters | 58% | Tossup | Tossup | ||
| New Hampshire | Incumbent Dem | Hassan | Bolduc | 70% | 4.0% | Leans Dem | Leans Dem | |
| Wisconsin | Incumbent Rep | Barnes | Johnson | 28% | Leans Rep | Tossup | ||
| North Carolina | Rep - Open | Beasley | Budd | -1.7% | 25% | -3.8% | Leans Rep | Leans Rep |
| Ohio | Rep - Open | Ryan | Vance | 1.8% | 16% | Likely Rep | Leans Rep |
The 538 and Real Clear Politics "Lead" columns are based on polling data. The other columns are based on polls, incumbency, national trends, and historical trends in the states.