Post by mhbruin on Jun 18, 2022 15:21:24 GMT -8
CH-CH-CH-CH-CH-CHANGES
They finished #233 in KenPom. That's behind Kennesaw State, Rider, Cal Baptist, and Quinnipiac.
Do you think last season was bad? At this point, it seems possible that next season could be even worse.
After the Elite Eight run, Coach Wayne Tinkle received a four-year contract extension that takes him through the 2026-27 season. I wonder how the AD is feeling about that. Wanna get away?
One factor may have contributed to their success in 2020-21. All five of Oregon State's leading scorers played in every game. In a year when there was roster chaos everywhere, no Beaver missed a game due to injury or COVID. Last season, only Jarod Lucas played in every game.
GRADUATING
As far as I can tell, Malone-Key has only played 4 seasons, but according to OregonLive.Com, he has no more eligibility. I will take their word for it.
I still think his parents couldn't decide whether to call him "Xavier" or "Zavier", so they decided, "Let's do both."
IN THE DRAFT
Calloo stayed in the draft. Silva didn't put his name into the draft, but he is turning pro.
TRANSFERRING OUT
Oregon State didn't have a particularly talented roster, and they lose a decent chunk of what talent they have. The portal is taking Oregon State's top two scorers, and more than half their assists.
The only reason I listed Hobson is because it seems bizarre to have a Dashawn and a Dyshawn on the same team. Do you play Dashawn or DyShawn. It's a Hobson's choice, but now Coach Tinkle won't be able to play either of them.
WHITHER WARITH?
Every story about the Beavers says Alitishe will not be back, but he did not put his name in the draft or transfer portal. Where is he? Where is he going?
His whereabouts remain a mystery.
RETURNING
OSU returns 6 players, BUT ...
All five of their leading scorers from last year are gone, as well as their 4 top rebounders and their 3 assist leaders. That isn't leaving a hole in the middle of their roster. That leaves a chasm.
Look at the assists and the A/TO ratio. They have no one who looks at all like a PG returning.
Ahmad Rand may be the only guy on this roster who might play for one of the better Pac-12 teams.
Andela showed some promise a couple of years ago, but was hobble by injuries last season.
Despite his low recruiting ranking, Chol Marial is an interesting prospect. He transferred from Maryland a year ago, but he was academically ineligible last season and didn't play. The stats are from from his last season at Maryland. He is 7'2" tall, and is much more mobile than the lumbering Roman Silva. In limited minutes at Maryland, he blocked almost 4 shots every 40 minutes.
As early as his freshman year in high school, Marial was receiving offers from major NCAA Division I programs, including Florida State, Iowa, and West Virginia. In January 2017, he emerged as one of the best players in the 2019 class. ESPN ranked him third overall, and 247Sports rated him as the second-best center in his class. In the following years, however, he plummeted down rankings, partly because he struggled with injuries and changed high schools several times.
On 6 May 2019, Marial committed to play college basketball for Maryland. He was attracted to Maryland because he liked its coaching staff and players, and due to the improvement Bruno Fernando, who had a similar background as Marial, displayed with the program. When Marial finished high school, he was considered a four-star recruit by ESPN and Rivals and a three-star recruit by 247Sports.
Marial missed the first 12 games of his freshman season after undergoing surgery to repair stress fractures in both legs. He played sparingly during his two years at Maryland. He combined crappy shooting with poor ball handling. He had 4 assists in 30 games.
This is a pretty low ranking for a recruiting class with 5 players. That is because no one in it has was considered a good prospect.
I saw a little of Jordan Pope in high school, he was a good high school PG. Since there really isn't any other PG on the roster, he might be pressed into that role. I am skeptical about whether he is up to the job as a true freshman.
Wayne Tinkle seems to be trying an experiment. Can you build a successful Pac-12 team with only 3-star and unranked players, and after losing almost all your production from last season? He could have just asked me. The answer is "no".
Oregon State was bad last season and is losing 6 rotation players, including the entire starting lineup. There may be a few familiar faces, but Wayne Tinkle is building a team from the ground up. His recent contract extension gives him a little leeway to do this.
However, there really isn't much talent here to build on. The Beavers are the only team in the Pac-12 without any 4 or 5-star players.
The 3-star players don't seem like much to get excited about. Only two of them were in the Top 200. If Beaver fans are looking for hope, maybe Marial will return to his early high-school form and stay healthy. Maybe Rataj is a great player that no one else noticed, because he was in Germany.
Oregon State needs to hope that some guys on this roster are undiscovered gems.
Aside from the lack of talent, it isn't clear who will play center or PG. I don't think the Beavers have a true center on this roster, though 7-foot-2 Chol Marial is likely to fill that role. However, he’s more more like one of the Mobleys, who is more comfortable on the wing. Forward Rodrigue Andela, coming off foot surgery, is Oregon State’s best bet as an inside banger.
As for point guard, the only true PG on the roster will be a true freshman who chose the Beavers over Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico.
This is a team that might compete for the conference title ... if they played in the Big West. Nah! They would finish near the bottom of the league.
Tinkle isn't a bad coach, but with this roster, I see little to get excited about. I see a lot to be depressed about.
-------------------------------------------
Jon Wilner picks them to finish last in the Pac-12:
"12. Oregon State : Coach Wayne Tinkle accomplished his No. 1 goal by sending a handful of rotation players to the transfer portal and thereby cleansing the program of its chemistry issues. Now comes the hard part: winning. We don’t see a quick fix in that regard. Not only is the roster utterly devoid of top-tier playmakers, it lacks the requisite number of mid-level talents. Sure, OSU’s locker room will be a happier place. But the scoreboard should be just as unforgiving as it was last season."
Torvick picks them to finish last. He projects they are the #266 team in the country. The next worst team in the Pac-12 is Cal. They are #131. If OSU were in the Big West, he picks them to finish 10th.
I also expect them to finish last. I wonder if they will win a conference game.
It is hard to do much worse than a 3-26 season. Oregon State might pull that off.
- Jarod Lucas transfers to Nevada to play for Steve Alford
- Calloo confirms he is turning pro.
- Dzmitry Ryuny transfers to OSU from USF
---------------------------
We start with the last-place Oregon State Beavers. They followed up their surprise run at the end of the 2021 season with a truly abysmal season. They went 3-26 and 1-19 in the Pac-12. They finished #233 in KenPom. That's behind Kennesaw State, Rider, Cal Baptist, and Quinnipiac.
Do you think last season was bad? At this point, it seems possible that next season could be even worse.
After the Elite Eight run, Coach Wayne Tinkle received a four-year contract extension that takes him through the 2026-27 season. I wonder how the AD is feeling about that. Wanna get away?
One factor may have contributed to their success in 2020-21. All five of Oregon State's leading scorers played in every game. In a year when there was roster chaos everywhere, no Beaver missed a game due to injury or COVID. Last season, only Jarod Lucas played in every game.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| Xzavier Malone-Key | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
As far as I can tell, Malone-Key has only played 4 seasons, but according to OregonLive.Com, he has no more eligibility. I will take their word for it.
I still think his parents couldn't decide whether to call him "Xavier" or "Zavier", so they decided, "Let's do both."
IN THE DRAFT
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| Maurice Calloo | 28 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Roman Silva | 30 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 1 |
Calloo stayed in the draft. Silva didn't put his name into the draft, but he is turning pro.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Destination |
| Jared Lucas | 31 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 1 | Nevada |
| Dashawn Davis | 27 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 6 | Mississippi State |
| Gianni Hunt | 9 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Sacramento State |
| Tre' Williams | 18 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Tulane |
| DyShawn Hobson | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Oregon State didn't have a particularly talented roster, and they lose a decent chunk of what talent they have. The portal is taking Oregon State's top two scorers, and more than half their assists.
The only reason I listed Hobson is because it seems bizarre to have a Dashawn and a Dyshawn on the same team. Do you play Dashawn or DyShawn. It's a Hobson's choice, but now Coach Tinkle won't be able to play either of them.
WHITHER WARITH?
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Class |
| Warith Alatishe | 28 | 20 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 1 | Sr 5 |
Every story about the Beavers says Alitishe will not be back, but he did not put his name in the draft or transfer portal. Where is he? Where is he going?
His whereabouts remain a mystery.
RETURNING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Class | FG% | 3-Pt % | A/TO Ratio | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Glenn Taylor Jr. F | 30 | 12 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 1 | So | 48% | 28% | 1.0 | 3 | 189 |
| Ahmad Rand | 29 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | Sr | 54% | 41% | 0.3 | Unranked | |
| Dexter Akanno | 29 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Jr | 37% | 30% | 0.7 | 3 | 400 |
| Rodrigue tha Andela | 7 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | Sr | 52% | 0.0 | Unranked | ||
| Isaiah Johnson | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Jr | 43% | 0.6 | 3 | 412 | |
| Chol Marial | 18 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Jr | 37% | 15% | 0.3 | 3 | 180 |
OSU returns 6 players, BUT ...
All five of their leading scorers from last year are gone, as well as their 4 top rebounders and their 3 assist leaders. That isn't leaving a hole in the middle of their roster. That leaves a chasm.
Look at the assists and the A/TO ratio. They have no one who looks at all like a PG returning.
Ahmad Rand may be the only guy on this roster who might play for one of the better Pac-12 teams.
Andela showed some promise a couple of years ago, but was hobble by injuries last season.
Despite his low recruiting ranking, Chol Marial is an interesting prospect. He transferred from Maryland a year ago, but he was academically ineligible last season and didn't play. The stats are from from his last season at Maryland. He is 7'2" tall, and is much more mobile than the lumbering Roman Silva. In limited minutes at Maryland, he blocked almost 4 shots every 40 minutes.
As early as his freshman year in high school, Marial was receiving offers from major NCAA Division I programs, including Florida State, Iowa, and West Virginia. In January 2017, he emerged as one of the best players in the 2019 class. ESPN ranked him third overall, and 247Sports rated him as the second-best center in his class. In the following years, however, he plummeted down rankings, partly because he struggled with injuries and changed high schools several times.
On 6 May 2019, Marial committed to play college basketball for Maryland. He was attracted to Maryland because he liked its coaching staff and players, and due to the improvement Bruno Fernando, who had a similar background as Marial, displayed with the program. When Marial finished high school, he was considered a four-star recruit by ESPN and Rivals and a three-star recruit by 247Sports.
Marial missed the first 12 games of his freshman season after undergoing surgery to repair stress fractures in both legs. He played sparingly during his two years at Maryland. He combined crappy shooting with poor ball handling. He had 4 assists in 30 games.
RECRUITS
(#80 class, #10 in Pac-12)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Tyler Bilodeau | 6-8 210 | PF | 3 | 206 | Washington State, Boise State, Montana State |
| Jayden Stevens | 6-7 190 | SF | Unranked | No other offers | |
| Jordan Pope | 6-0 165 | PG | 3 | 249 | Montana, Nevada, New Mexico |
| Nick Krass | 6-4 190 | SG | Unranked | Mississippi, Southern Miss | |
| Michael Rataj | 6-8 215 | SF | Unranked | From Germany |
This is a pretty low ranking for a recruiting class with 5 players. That is because no one in it has was considered a good prospect.
I saw a little of Jordan Pope in high school, he was a good high school PG. Since there really isn't any other PG on the roster, he might be pressed into that role. I am skeptical about whether he is up to the job as a true freshman.
Rataj is an unknown. No other schools offered him, but coming from Germany, he might have slipped under the radar
TRANSFERRING IN
| Player | Size | Games Played | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG Percent | 3-Point Percent | A/TO Ratio | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Christian Wright | 6-3 185 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35% | 27% | 1.3 | Georgia | So | 3 | 215 |
| Dzmitry Ryuny | 6-9 205 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 24% | 18% | 0.8 | San Francisco | Sr 5 | Unranked |
Christian Wright played in every game last season for the Georgia Bulldogs and started 11 games. The Bulldogs finished dead last in the SEC. He must be a masochist to move from one last-place team to another. Maybe he likes playing for teams that only win one conference game. He should fit in with OSU's 3-star players.
His 1.3 A/TO ratio isn't very good, but it is the best on the team. Maybe he can play PG.
The 6-foot-9 Ryuny, who has one year of eligibility remaining, averaged 5.1 points and 2.7 rebounds during his four-year USF career. Ryuny’s best season was 2020-21, when the then-junior forward averaged 9.4 points and 5.6 rebounds to earn honorable mention all-West Coast Conference honors. Ryuny is coming off a tough 2021-22 season, when he suffered a foot injury during the summer and struggled to recover.
I wouldn't expect Ryuny to be much of a ball handler. In 92 career games, he had 39 assists.
CONCLUSION
His 1.3 A/TO ratio isn't very good, but it is the best on the team. Maybe he can play PG.
The 6-foot-9 Ryuny, who has one year of eligibility remaining, averaged 5.1 points and 2.7 rebounds during his four-year USF career. Ryuny’s best season was 2020-21, when the then-junior forward averaged 9.4 points and 5.6 rebounds to earn honorable mention all-West Coast Conference honors. Ryuny is coming off a tough 2021-22 season, when he suffered a foot injury during the summer and struggled to recover.
I wouldn't expect Ryuny to be much of a ball handler. In 92 career games, he had 39 assists.
CONCLUSION
Wayne Tinkle seems to be trying an experiment. Can you build a successful Pac-12 team with only 3-star and unranked players, and after losing almost all your production from last season? He could have just asked me. The answer is "no".
Oregon State was bad last season and is losing 6 rotation players, including the entire starting lineup. There may be a few familiar faces, but Wayne Tinkle is building a team from the ground up. His recent contract extension gives him a little leeway to do this.
However, there really isn't much talent here to build on. The Beavers are the only team in the Pac-12 without any 4 or 5-star players.
The 3-star players don't seem like much to get excited about. Only two of them were in the Top 200. If Beaver fans are looking for hope, maybe Marial will return to his early high-school form and stay healthy. Maybe Rataj is a great player that no one else noticed, because he was in Germany.
Oregon State needs to hope that some guys on this roster are undiscovered gems.
Aside from the lack of talent, it isn't clear who will play center or PG. I don't think the Beavers have a true center on this roster, though 7-foot-2 Chol Marial is likely to fill that role. However, he’s more more like one of the Mobleys, who is more comfortable on the wing. Forward Rodrigue Andela, coming off foot surgery, is Oregon State’s best bet as an inside banger.
As for point guard, the only true PG on the roster will be a true freshman who chose the Beavers over Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico.
This is a team that might compete for the conference title ... if they played in the Big West. Nah! They would finish near the bottom of the league.
Tinkle isn't a bad coach, but with this roster, I see little to get excited about. I see a lot to be depressed about.
-------------------------------------------
Jon Wilner picks them to finish last in the Pac-12:
"12. Oregon State : Coach Wayne Tinkle accomplished his No. 1 goal by sending a handful of rotation players to the transfer portal and thereby cleansing the program of its chemistry issues. Now comes the hard part: winning. We don’t see a quick fix in that regard. Not only is the roster utterly devoid of top-tier playmakers, it lacks the requisite number of mid-level talents. Sure, OSU’s locker room will be a happier place. But the scoreboard should be just as unforgiving as it was last season."
Torvick picks them to finish last. He projects they are the #266 team in the country. The next worst team in the Pac-12 is Cal. They are #131. If OSU were in the Big West, he picks them to finish 10th.
I also expect them to finish last. I wonder if they will win a conference game.
It is hard to do much worse than a 3-26 season. Oregon State might pull that off.