Post by mhbruin on Mar 12, 2022 11:30:01 GMT -8
I am going to assume Kerr Kriisa won't play tonight. Even if he could go, why risk further injury for a meaningless game for Arizona. They are a #1 seed no matter what, and they need him in the Big Dance.
Normally, I wouldn't say that missing one player for one game is a big factor, but this is an unusual situation. They usually only play 8 players. Now they are down to 7 players. And they are playing 3 games in 3 days.
Last night they had 4 players play over 30 minutes. On the season, they had only 2 players play over 30 minutes, and one of them was Kriisa. I think fatigue will be a factor.
Also we have more to play for. We are fighting for a #3 seed. They will be a #1 no matter what.
That's not to say they won't be motivated. It's just we will be more motivated.
METRICS
Line: Arizona -1.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 42% of the time.
According to the computers we are both Top 10 teams meeting on a neutral floor. Again, it is a toss-up, with a slight edge to Arizona.
BUT, all this assumes they are playing with a full lineup.
We have played a tougher schedule.
ARIZONA'S RECORD
Their only losses are road games at Tennessee (#12) UCLA(10), and Colorado (70).
Among elite teams, only Houston has played more Quad 3 and Quad 4 games than Arizona.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
A key will be controlling tempo. We like to play slow. They like to play fast. We need to be patient.
This is a great matchup. We are an elite offense. They are an elite defense. They are among the best in the country at defending the 2-point shot. This is in large part because they block so many shots. They are #28 in the country at blocked shots per game.
HOWEVER, we are really good at not getting our shots blocked. They only had 2 blocks in their loss and 9 blocks in their win. They average 5.6 per game. This seems like a key
They also create a lot of turnovers, but we don't turn it over that much. We only turned it over 8 times against them.
If they have a weakness, it is defending the 3-point shot, and we are the very good at shooting it. We shot 47% in the win and 21% in the loss. Another key.
So the way to succeed it simple. Make our 3-point shots, don't turn it over, don't get our shots blocked, and control the tempo. Simple, right? In theory.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
This is another great matchup of great offense against great defense.
Arizona is on OK 3-point shooting team, but they do their real damage inside the arc. They want to get to the rim early and often. They also want to get it inside to their bigs, who are very effective around the basket. We are good at defending the 2, but hardly great.
There are three keys to our defending them: 1) We have to get back on defense. 2) Riley and Johnson have to stay out of foul trouble. Both are easier said than done. 3) We have to defend the high-low pass into the post.
We would definitely prefer that they try to beat us from the outside, where they are less effective, and they might cooperate. Given how effective they are inside, they tend to shoot too many 3's. In their two games against us they shot 25% and 36% from the arc. However, I would still rather see them atke a lot of 3's. Hoist it up, Wildcats.
They are very good on the offensive boards. We are good on the defensive boards. As much as this seems to matter, we gave up 21 offensive boards in our win. They shot miserably. We only gave up 9 in our loss. Go figure.
OTHER FACTORS
They are very good on the boards. We have been outrebounded in both games. We need to compete there, even if we don't win the rebounding battle.
This is one of the few teams where their PG play is almost as good as ours. Tyger's A/TO ratio is 3.3, and Kriisa's is 2.3 and Terry's is 2.7. But Kriisa isn't likely to play and Kier is 1.8, which is respectable, but not as good.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Arizona is sponsored by the letter "K".
Arizona leads the nations in K's on the roster: Koloko, Kerr Kriisa, Kier, and even Kim Aiken and Ben Ackerley. The Bruins can only field Jaylen Clark, Jake Kyman, and Kenny Nwuba.
However, we probably lead the nation in J's on the roster. Jaimie Jacquez Junior, Johnny Juzang, Jules Bernard, Jaylen Clark, Myles Johnson, and Jake Kyman. In the first game, our J's clearly beat their K's.
The Wildcats go 8 deep, but only 7 are likely to play in our game.
For the most part, we would rather have Tubelis and Terry shooting 3's. But then Terry isn't that great inside the arc, either. We'd rather have Kier shooting two-point shots.
Everyone has anointed Mathurin as the best player in the league, and he is projected as a lottery pick. He leads the team in scoring, but his numbers don't jump off the page. He's very athletic, and an excellent rebounder for his size.
Tubelis is a terrific college player and he will play pro ball somewhere. He does everything really well, except shoot the 3, but he can make it. All things considered, we would be very happy if he shoots a lot of 3's, but he doesn't shoot that many.
Koloko is the most improved player in the league not named Terrell Brown. I thought he had to potential to be a very good center, but not this good. He is averaging 3.2 blocks per game.
Kerr Kriisa and Dalen Terry make a formidable PG combo. Kriisa isn't that good inside the arc and Terry isn't that good outside. However, they run the offense very well.
Ballo has been an afterthought for most of the season, but recent games, he has turned into a real threat. He's a more than adequate backup center., who would start for a lot of teams.
Pelle Larsson shot 46% from the arc as a freshman for Utah. For some reason, that has dropped to 33% in the desert. He's still a good player. I still don't know why he has not signed an NIL deal with Pelle Windows.
CONCLUSION
This looks like a pretty even matchup. The #17 offense vs the #15 offense. The #11 defense vs. the #7 defense. However, Arizona has the edge on the boards, but they are not a deep team, short a player, and playing their third game in three days. So are we, but we are deeper.
They keys to a Bruin win are pretty clear.
We won by 16 at home. They won by 10 at home. So I'll predict we win by 6 on a neutral court. DO NOT take that one to the bank.
Actually, I predict a hard-fought, close game which could come down to the last few minutes. That's when I hope fatigue really sets in for them.
GO BRUINS!
Normally, I wouldn't say that missing one player for one game is a big factor, but this is an unusual situation. They usually only play 8 players. Now they are down to 7 players. And they are playing 3 games in 3 days.
Last night they had 4 players play over 30 minutes. On the season, they had only 2 players play over 30 minutes, and one of them was Kriisa. I think fatigue will be a factor.
Also we have more to play for. We are fighting for a #3 seed. They will be a #1 no matter what.
That's not to say they won't be motivated. It's just we will be more motivated.
METRICS
Line: Arizona -1.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 42% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 48% of the time. UCLA loses 75-74.
KenPom: UCLA wins 46% of the time. Again UCLA loses 75-74. (Borrowed from Born2BeBruin)
KenPom: UCLA wins 46% of the time. Again UCLA loses 75-74. (Borrowed from Born2BeBruin)
Nolan Prediction: UCLA loses 78-74. (The computers are convinced we are going to score 74 points. We average 76.)
Basically this game is a toss-up, with Arizona as slight favorites.
Basically this game is a toss-up, with Arizona as slight favorites.
| Arizona | UCLA | |
| NET | 2 | 10 |
| KenPom Rank | 3 | 7 |
| Sagarin Rank | 2 | 9 |
| Torvick Rank | 6 | 8 |
| SOS | 74 | 44 |
| Record | 30-3 | 25-6 |
According to the computers we are both Top 10 teams meeting on a neutral floor. Again, it is a toss-up, with a slight edge to Arizona.
BUT, all this assumes they are playing with a full lineup.
We have played a tougher schedule.
ARIZONA'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 5-3 | 8-2 | 8-1 | 4-0 |
| Arizona | 5-3 | 9-0 | 9-0 | 7-0 |
Their only losses are road games at Tennessee (#12) UCLA(10), and Colorado (70).
Among elite teams, only Houston has played more Quad 3 and Quad 4 games than Arizona.
| UCLA Road/Neutral | 11-5 |
| Arizona Road/Neutral | 13-3 |
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
Arizona Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 17 | 15 |
| Torvick Rank | 23 | 16 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored | 67 | 76 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 7 | 242 |
| FG Percent | 39% | 45% |
| Eff FG Percent | 44% (8) | 51% (135) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 33% (140) | 36% (68) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 42% (3) | 50% (192) |
| FT Percent | 74% | |
| 3-Point Share (rank) | 34.6% (81) | 31.4% (313) |
| Block % | 13.1% (28) | 7.3% (52) |
| Assists Rate | 47.3% (86) | 50.5% (181) |
| Turnover Percent (created / committed) | 17.9% (208) | 13.5% (5) |
| Offensive Rebound Percent |
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
A key will be controlling tempo. We like to play slow. They like to play fast. We need to be patient.
This is a great matchup. We are an elite offense. They are an elite defense. They are among the best in the country at defending the 2-point shot. This is in large part because they block so many shots. They are #28 in the country at blocked shots per game.
HOWEVER, we are really good at not getting our shots blocked. They only had 2 blocks in their loss and 9 blocks in their win. They average 5.6 per game. This seems like a key
They also create a lot of turnovers, but we don't turn it over that much. We only turned it over 8 times against them.
If they have a weakness, it is defending the 3-point shot, and we are the very good at shooting it. We shot 47% in the win and 21% in the loss. Another key.
So the way to succeed it simple. Make our 3-point shots, don't turn it over, don't get our shots blocked, and control the tempo. Simple, right? In theory.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Arizona Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 11 | 7 |
| Torvick Rank | 15 | 11 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 85 |
| FG Percent | 41% | 50% |
| Eff FG Percent | 47.4% (61) | 55.8% (11) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.9% (76) | 35.2% (84) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 47.1% (24) | 57.6 (5) |
| 3-Point Share | 38.1% (200) | 35.9% (222) |
| FT Percent | 73% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 24.5% (50) | 34.5% (17) |
| Assists Percent | 50.3% (158) | 65.2% (1) |
| Turnover Percent (created / committed) | 19.8% (91) | 18.0% (146) |
| Bock Percent | 7.3% (52) | 7.0% (35) |
This is another great matchup of great offense against great defense.
Arizona is on OK 3-point shooting team, but they do their real damage inside the arc. They want to get to the rim early and often. They also want to get it inside to their bigs, who are very effective around the basket. We are good at defending the 2, but hardly great.
There are three keys to our defending them: 1) We have to get back on defense. 2) Riley and Johnson have to stay out of foul trouble. Both are easier said than done. 3) We have to defend the high-low pass into the post.
We would definitely prefer that they try to beat us from the outside, where they are less effective, and they might cooperate. Given how effective they are inside, they tend to shoot too many 3's. In their two games against us they shot 25% and 36% from the arc. However, I would still rather see them atke a lot of 3's. Hoist it up, Wildcats.
They are very good on the offensive boards. We are good on the defensive boards. As much as this seems to matter, we gave up 21 offensive boards in our win. They shot miserably. We only gave up 9 in our loss. Go figure.
OTHER FACTORS
| Arizona | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 7.2 | 4.5 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.5 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
They are very good on the boards. We have been outrebounded in both games. We need to compete there, even if we don't win the rebounding battle.
This is one of the few teams where their PG play is almost as good as ours. Tyger's A/TO ratio is 3.3, and Kriisa's is 2.3 and Terry's is 2.7. But Kriisa isn't likely to play and Kier is 1.8, which is respectable, but not as good.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Arizona is sponsored by the letter "K".
Arizona leads the nations in K's on the roster: Koloko, Kerr Kriisa, Kier, and even Kim Aiken and Ben Ackerley. The Bruins can only field Jaylen Clark, Jake Kyman, and Kenny Nwuba.
However, we probably lead the nation in J's on the roster. Jaimie Jacquez Junior, Johnny Juzang, Jules Bernard, Jaylen Clark, Myles Johnson, and Jake Kyman. In the first game, our J's clearly beat their K's.
The Wildcats go 8 deep, but only 7 are likely to play in our game.
| Player | Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG% | 3-Pt % | Rebounds | Assists |
| Bennedict Mathurin G | So | 33 | 32 | 17 | 46% | 38% | 6 | 2 |
| Azuolas Tubelis F | So | 32 | 25 | 15 | 55% | 28% | 7 | 3 |
| Christian Koloko C | Jr | 33 | 24 | 13 | 63% | 0% | 8 | 1 |
| Justin Kier G | Sr | 33 | 22 | 7 | 43% | 35% | 4 | 2 |
| Oumar Ballo C | Jr | 33 | 15 | 8 | 64% | 0% | 5 | 1 |
| Dalen Terry G | So | 33 | 27 | 5 | 43% | 24% | 4 | 4 |
| Pelle Larsson G | So | 33 | 20 | 7 | 47% | 35% | 3 | 2 |
For the most part, we would rather have Tubelis and Terry shooting 3's. But then Terry isn't that great inside the arc, either. We'd rather have Kier shooting two-point shots.
Everyone has anointed Mathurin as the best player in the league, and he is projected as a lottery pick. He leads the team in scoring, but his numbers don't jump off the page. He's very athletic, and an excellent rebounder for his size.
Tubelis is a terrific college player and he will play pro ball somewhere. He does everything really well, except shoot the 3, but he can make it. All things considered, we would be very happy if he shoots a lot of 3's, but he doesn't shoot that many.
Koloko is the most improved player in the league not named Terrell Brown. I thought he had to potential to be a very good center, but not this good. He is averaging 3.2 blocks per game.
Kerr Kriisa and Dalen Terry make a formidable PG combo. Kriisa isn't that good inside the arc and Terry isn't that good outside. However, they run the offense very well.
Ballo has been an afterthought for most of the season, but recent games, he has turned into a real threat. He's a more than adequate backup center., who would start for a lot of teams.
Pelle Larsson shot 46% from the arc as a freshman for Utah. For some reason, that has dropped to 33% in the desert. He's still a good player. I still don't know why he has not signed an NIL deal with Pelle Windows.
CONCLUSION
This looks like a pretty even matchup. The #17 offense vs the #15 offense. The #11 defense vs. the #7 defense. However, Arizona has the edge on the boards, but they are not a deep team, short a player, and playing their third game in three days. So are we, but we are deeper.
They keys to a Bruin win are pretty clear.
- Get back on defense
- Defend inside and make them beat us from the arc.
- Make our 3's
- Don't get our shots blocked
- Rebound our defensive board
We won by 16 at home. They won by 10 at home. So I'll predict we win by 6 on a neutral court. DO NOT take that one to the bank.
Actually, I predict a hard-fought, close game which could come down to the last few minutes. That's when I hope fatigue really sets in for them.
GO BRUINS!