USC v UCLA Previow

I thought Washington had a decent chance of beating SC, but they clearly ran out of gas down the stretch.  That won't be a problem for us.

This is basically the same preview as the one 10 days ago, but I updated the stats at the beginning and the conclusion.

BRING IT ON!!

METRICS

Line: UCLA -6

ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins  79% of the time.



The computers still like us.  


Forget all the SC fear.  We are a significantly better team than they are.  We should be favored.  

SC has played the softest schedule in the Pac-12.  SC's non-conference schedule is ranked #304 in the country.

They moved high in the national rankings with a 13-0 start, helped by the weak schedule.  Since then they have gone 12-5.

USC'S RECORD


With the exception of beating us at Galen, SC best wins away from Galen are over San Diego State, Washington State, Oregon, and Colorado.
Their worst losses are to Oregon (#76) and twice to Stanford (#105).  

Oregon's collapse at the end of the season not only cost them a shot at an NCAA bid, but also turned one of our losses into a Quad 3 loss.

This will be a Quad 1 game for both of us.


UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE


We have gradually been playing slower as the season has progressed, and they are even slower than we are.  Don't expect a track meet.

Commentators like to make a big deal of how great SC's defense it.  However, most of their numbers aren't all that impressive.  Our defense is rated higher on efficiency than theirs is.

However two numbers stand out:  Effective FG percent and 2-point defense.  They are REALLY good at defending the two-point shot.  They also block a lot of shots.  They aren't all that special at defending the three.

They also don't cause very many turnovers.  Essentially, they sag into the lane, where they use their height to make it very difficult to get close to the basket.  They don't pressure the ball on the perimeter to try to get steals.  And they give up the outside shot.  

It's the kind of defense that makes it hard on players like Jaimie Jaquez who likes to work in the lane.  He was 2 of 11 in the first game.  It also makes life miserable for Johnny Juzang and his midrange shots.  He was 4 of 16 .

Jules Bernard had a horrible game including 0 for 5 from the arc.  

This is a game where we will likely need David Singleton and Jake Kyman.  It would help a lot if Tyger had a good game from the outside.

This was our worst shooting night of the year.  By a lot.  We shot 30%.  (Our second worst game was 35% against Gonzaga.)

So why did we only lose by 3 on a night when we shot 30%?  We get a lot of offensive rebounds in general, and surprisingly, they are not that good on their defensive glass.  We got 18 that night.  We shot 9 more shots than they did, as well as 26 free throws to their 12.

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC'S OFFENSE


It looks like we have a modest edge in this part of the matchup.   They are a good offensive team, but our defense is a bit better.   

We are good at defending both the three and the two.  They are decent at the three, but mediocre at the-two point shot.  Overall, they aren't a great shooting team.

Their biggest strength is offensive rebounding.  However, we are a good rebounding team, too.  We held them to 9 offensive rebounds in the first game.  I think we will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance.  

They are a bad FT shooting team.    They are horrible, terrible, pathetic FT shooting team. They are the worst major conference team in the country.  Since nothing went according to form in the first game, they made 11 of 12 against us.  It was their best performance of the year.

Are you getting the feeling almost everything went right for the Trojans in Galen?  It did.  And they only beat us by 3.

OTHER FACTORS


Boards, boards, boards.  No boards, no rings.  We outrebounded them 39-37 in the first game.  We need to do that again.

Much of the time USC doesn't have a real PG on the floor.  Their two leaders in assists are 6-7 Drew Peterson and 6-10 Isaiah Mobley, and neither of them is Magic Johnson.  They are also two of their leaders in turnovers.

Ethan Anderson is the best PG they have and he has been coming off the bench lately.  His shooting hasn't been that good.

Nonetheless, their team A/TO ratio is good at 1.2.  That makes them #61 in the nation.  (We are #11.)

PLAYERS

If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.

Andy Enfield plays 10 players in most games.    

7 of the 10 players were in the program last year, and 7 are upperclassmen, so this is an experienced team.


* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.

Isaiah Mobley is not as good as his brother, but he is still very good.  He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and steals and he is second on the team in blocks and assists.  At 6-10, he is their second-best 3-point shooter, and he attempts an average of 4 of them per game   

Mobley likes to get the ball near the FT line and make a move toward the basket.  He has a very effective hook shot.

I am sure you remember Drew Peterson from our game. He came into that game 4th in scoring for the Trojans. He is now second. He came into the game having missed his previous 12 three-point shots. He went 5 of 6 against us. It was only the second time all season he made 5 threes. He scored a career high. Sometime that happens.

Peterson is a very good player, although not as good as he looked against us.  He has played well since our game, except for their recent blowout by Arizona.

Boogie Ellis wears the number zero.  I think he wears it because it represents the number of fouls he believes he has committed in his career.  He is very quick and he is capable of having big-scoring games.  He leads the Trojans in 3-point attempts.  

Goodwin is a very solid center.  He moves well without ball and can score around the basket.  He is a serious threat to roll to the hoop for a layup off the pick-and-roll.  Other than that they don't seem to run plays for him.

Enfield has been switching off the fifth starter between Max Agbonkpolo and Ethan Anderson, but he seems to be going more toward Agbonkpolo lately.  Max seems to get most of his points by hanging out beyond the arc on the baseline and waiting for someone to pass him the ball, but he is capable of driving if he is left open.  He will take around three 3's per game, but hasn't been a great shooter.

Ethan Anderson (not Ian Anderson of Jethro Tull), has had a bit of a disappointing year shooting, but he has the best A/TO ratio on the team.

Joshua Morgan is a solid backup center.  His offensive skills are limited, but he is the best shot blocker on the team.  

Reese Dixon-Waters is their best 3-point shooter and he will shot one or two every game.  When he's on the floor, we need to guard him on the arc.

After that the bench isn't very impressive, although Kobe Johnson shows some promise.  (However, he is not what you would get if you combine Kobe Bryant and Magic Johnson.)  

Isaiah White started 28 games for the Trojans last year, but has been having a bad year and has been moved pretty far down the bench.

CONCLUSION

We are the better team.  We are better on offense and defense.  Our offense is better than their defense.  Our defense is better than their offense.

They have an edge on the boards, but not a huge one. 

And we are the healthiest we have been in a long time.  If Johnny can find his stroke again, we are ready for the tournament.  

The computers like our chances in this game, and I rarely argue with computers.  I won't do it today, either.

However, they are legitimately a good team with a lot of weapons.  I don't expect this game to be good for my nerves.

Go Bruins!  Beat SC!