Post by mhbruin on Mar 3, 2022 8:32:50 GMT -8
First, my sincere apology. Yesterday I somehow wrote three seeds for each line when I meant four.
I have chosen the teams I see UCLA competing with for seeding. One of the bracketologists seeds these 12 teams as #3, #4, and #5's.
If you want to play, pick four #3 seeds, four #4 seeds, and four #5 seeds.
I created an adjusted Top 2 Quad Win Precentage as a metric to evaluate the teams. Here's how I used the factors:
Quad 1 and Quad 2 Wins indicate whether you can compete with tournament teams. However, the number of wins is influenced by how many Quad 1 or Quad 2 games you played, so I preferred your win percentage in those games.
Quad 1 and Quad 2 Win Percentage is my main metric.
A Quad 3 Loss should count more, so I count is as 1.5 losses.
A losing Quad 1 record or a negative road record each count as an additional loss.
I thought all the teams played a decent strength of schedule.
Based on that metric, here are the #3 seeds are Providence (L), Villanova (A), UCLA (D), and Purdue (E).
#4's are Tennessee (B), St Mary's (I), Texas Tech (C), and Arkansas (K).
#5 seeds are Illinois (F), UConn, (H), Alabama (J), and Texas (G).
If I punished teams a bit for a weaker strength of schedule, I would drop Arkansas from the 4 line to the 5 line, and move Illinois up to #4.
BTW, Alabama and UConn lost last night.
If there's a lesson here, it's that it is a very subjective process. Illinois was everywhere from a #3 to a #5. Purdue was a #2 to a #4. St. Marys was a #$ to a #6.
On Selection Sunday, the experts will both crow about what a great job the committee did and complain about some of the decisions. All the committee does is make decisions. Within a certain range, there are no right or wrong decisions. Only opinions.
I have chosen the teams I see UCLA competing with for seeding. One of the bracketologists seeds these 12 teams as #3, #4, and #5's.
If you want to play, pick four #3 seeds, four #4 seeds, and four #5 seeds.
| Team | NET | KenPom | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | SOS | Road Record | Positives | Negatives | |
| A | Villanova | 7 | 12 | 7-6 | 6-1 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 8-5 | 13 Quad 1&2 Wins Best Net Ranking | |
| B | Tennessee | 9 | 11 | 7-7 | 4-0 | 6-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 6-5 | ||
| C | Texas Tech | 10 | 10 | 6-7 | 7-0 | 1-0 | 9-0 | 22 | 3-6 | 13 Quad 1&2 Wins | Losing Quad 1 record |
| D | UCLA | 12 | 8 | 4-4 | 7-2 | 6-0 | 5-0 | 46 | 8-4 | Best KenPom | |
| E | Purdue | 13 | 13 | 7-5 | 4-1 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 32 | 5-5 | ||
| F | Illinois | 14 | 13 | 5-5 | 6-3 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 14 | 7-4 | Most Quad 2 losses | |
| G | Texas | 15 | 15 | 5-8 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9-0 | 29 | 4-6 | Losing Quad 1 Record | |
| H | UConn | 17 | 20 | 5-5 | 7-2 | 2-0 | 7-0 | 53 | 5-4 | ||
| I | St. Mary's | 19 | 17 | 5-6 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 9-0 | 68 | 6-4 | Losing Quad 1 Record, Weakest scheduel | |
| J | Alabama | 21 | 21 | 7-7 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 1-0 | 1 | 3-6 | Toughest Schedule 13 Top 2 Wins | 2 Quad 3 losses, bad road record, Bad computer numbers |
| K | Arkansas | 23 | 19 | 5-4 | 5-0 | 6-2 | 7-0 | 57 | 5-3 | Weak schedule, Bad Comp #s. 2 Quad 3 losses. | |
| L | Providence | 25 | 34 | 5-3 | 9-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 50 | 7-2 | 14 Quad 1&2 Wins Great road record |
I created an adjusted Top 2 Quad Win Precentage as a metric to evaluate the teams. Here's how I used the factors:
Quad 1 and Quad 2 Wins indicate whether you can compete with tournament teams. However, the number of wins is influenced by how many Quad 1 or Quad 2 games you played, so I preferred your win percentage in those games.
Quad 1 and Quad 2 Win Percentage is my main metric.
A Quad 3 Loss should count more, so I count is as 1.5 losses.
A losing Quad 1 record or a negative road record each count as an additional loss.
I thought all the teams played a decent strength of schedule.
Based on that metric, here are the #3 seeds are Providence (L), Villanova (A), UCLA (D), and Purdue (E).
#4's are Tennessee (B), St Mary's (I), Texas Tech (C), and Arkansas (K).
#5 seeds are Illinois (F), UConn, (H), Alabama (J), and Texas (G).
If I punished teams a bit for a weaker strength of schedule, I would drop Arkansas from the 4 line to the 5 line, and move Illinois up to #4.
BTW, Alabama and UConn lost last night.
| Team | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | SOS | Road Record | My Metric | My Seed | Palm | Lunardi | EBuzzMiller | |
| A | Villanova | 7-6 | 6-1 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 8-5 | 65% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| B | Tennessee | 7-7 | 4-0 | 6-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 6-5 | 61% | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| C | Texas Tech | 6-7 | 7-0 | 1-0 | 9-0 | 22 | 3-6 | 59% | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| D | UCLA | 4-4 | 7-2 | 6-0 | 5-0 | 46 | 8-4 | 65%+ | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| E | Purdue | 7-5 | 4-1 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 32 | 5-5 | 65% | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| F | Illinois | 5-5 | 6-3 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 14 | 7-4 | 58% | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| G | Texas | 5-8 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 9-0 | 29 | 4-6 | 50% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| H | UConn | 5-5 | 7-2 | 2-0 | 7-0 | 53 | 5-4 | 57% | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| I | St. Mary's | 5-6 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 9-0 | 68 | 6-4 | 60% | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| J | Alabama | 7-7 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 1-0 | 1 | 3-6 | 52% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| K | Arkansas | 5-4 | 5-0 | 6-2 | 7-0 | 57 | 5-3 | 59% | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| L | Providence | 5-3 | 9-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 50 | 7-2 | 78% | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
If there's a lesson here, it's that it is a very subjective process. Illinois was everywhere from a #3 to a #5. Purdue was a #2 to a #4. St. Marys was a #$ to a #6.
On Selection Sunday, the experts will both crow about what a great job the committee did and complain about some of the decisions. All the committee does is make decisions. Within a certain range, there are no right or wrong decisions. Only opinions.