Post by mhbruin on Feb 22, 2022 16:08:49 GMT -8
Now we face our second schizophrenic team in a row. Or are they bi-polar. (I am sure using mental health terms isn't politically correct, but they are descriptive.)
Just as with ASU, you never know which team you are going to get with Oregon. The team that beat UCLA and USC on the road? Or the team that lost to Cal by 12 and ASU by 24? The team that won 10 of 11 or the team that has lost 3 of their last 4 and only beat WSU by 3?
They truly are the Schizo, Schizo Ducks.
Who would try to predict anything about the most unpredictable team in the country? Only a complete idiot. But you folks already knew that about me.
This is also our second chance to avenge a loss.
Before the first game I mentioned I was worried about the quickness of Oregon's guards. It still worries me.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD (Estimated UCLA -4)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 71% of the time.
Even their computer rankings are all over the map, ranging from 40 to 73.
OREGON'S RECORD
Oregon's best wins over UCLA, SC, and is a home win over SMU who is #46 in the NET, and #60 in Kenpom. Really Oregon has a 2-game resume, those road wins over UCLA and SC. Other than that, there is nothing impressive about their record.
Their worst losses are two losses to Arizona State, and home losses to Colorado and Cal.
Why two losses to ASU? Oregon has very quick guards. So does ASU. Maybe the Sun Devils match up well with them.
All three of their Quad 3 losses are at home. They won both their Quad 2 games at home. Go figure.
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
Oregon will have had 5 days between games, having no game since Saturday. We will have had 3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Looking at the stats, our offense is better than their defense in every single way. We shoot the 2 and the 3 better than they defend them. We avoid turnovers, better than they cause them. We don't get a lot of our shots blocked and they don't block a lot of them. We are good at getting offensive rebounds and they give up quite a few of them.
And yet we only shot 40% from the field and 28% from the arc, and we turned the ball over 13 times, over our season average of 9.5 turnovers.
To start with, Peyton Watson took 12 shots and made 4 of them. Bernard took 13 shots and made 2 of them, going 1 0f 8 from the arc. Only Juzang took more shots than those two, and he had a good night.
Jaquez only took 6 shots and finished with 4 points.. My point? The wrong people were shooting Of course, some of the credit goes to Dana Altman and his game plan.
We also missed 8 free throws in a game we lost by 3 in OT.
Another factor is the very quick guards. We seem to have a problem with quick guards. We haven't shot all that well against ASU in either game we played against them nor against Oregon. These are both teams with quick guards.
On the other hand, this was an unusually good defensive outing for the Ducks. The only Pac-12 teams that shot this poorly against them were Colorado, Washington, WSU, and OSU, all of whom are pretty offensively challenged.
I expect we will have a better shooting night than we had in Pauley, but still a bit below out
The most interesting game within the game should involve turnovers. Oregon likes to get turnovers. We don't turn it over much. The turnover battle could decide the game. We REALLY need Tyger to play.
Neither team plays that fast, so tempo should not be an issue.
OREGONS'S OFFENSE VS UCLA'S DEFENSE
Oregon has a good offense. Our defense is more highly ranked in just about every category.
We are better at defending the 3 than they are at shooting it. We are slightly better defending the 2, than they shoot it.
They don't get a lot of shots blocked but we don't block a ton of shots. We are good at defending our defensive board.
Their low assist rate indicates how they play. They like to spread the floor and go one-on-one. They will penetrate to get to the rim or kick it out. Since they are very quick, it is hard for us to stop it.
Oregon's players are very quick. Everyone except the centers are very good one-on-one players. Staying in front of them won't be easy. However in the first game, we held them to 40% shooting, and 28% from the arc. Since them our defense has improved.
They are a pretty bad FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
We should be able to at least match them on the boards. In the first game we out-rebounded them 49-45
Since they don't get a ton of assists, it is not a huge surprise that they don't have a great A/TO margin.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Oregon goes 8 deep. Bittle (who is neither little nor brittle) only makes a brief appearance in most games. Altman usually plays a pretty tight rotation. 8 players is a lot for him.
4 of the 8 are returning from last season, but injury plagued Dante only appeared in 6 games last season.
This is a talented roster, perhaps the most talented after UCLA, SC, and Arizona. Bittle and Dante were 5-star players and Richardson, Kepnang, Harmon, and Guerrier were 4-star players. However, this is not one of Altman's most talented roster.
7 of the 8 are juniors or seniors. There are not a bunch of kids
Talent, experience, and learning to play together. This is pretty typical for Dana Altman, but this is not one of his best teams.
Will Richardson is their best player. He can score from anywhere on the floor, and with a wide range of shots. He is capable of carrying the team, but he doesn't seem to assert himself on offense in a lot of games.
He leads the team in assists, but has only a 1.7 A/TO ratio. Almost half his shots are 3-point attempts, and he makes a high percentage. Overall, we would probably prefer he shoots 2-point shots, but really we don't want him shooting at all.
That A/TO ratio is the best on the team. They don't have a real PG. OTOH, their offense doesn't really require one, since they are going one-on-one so much.
You may remember Jacob Young going off for 23 against us. This is not typical. It was his season high and one of three games where he scored 20 or more. In fact, he is just as likely to score in single digits as double digits. He went 11 of 18 against us, and 16 of those shots were two-pointers. He isn't much of a 3-point threat and he doesn't shoot a lot of them. We want to keep him out of the lane and make him an outsider shooter.
Harmon is a good outside shooter, and he shoots quite a few of them. We would prefer to make him a driver.
Guerrier loves the outside shot. He is second on the team in 3-point attempts. He is third on the team in 3-point makes. He should pass the ball to Harmon more.
Dante is big, strong, and a decent athlete. He can score from anywhere on the floor, as long as he is within a few feet of the basket. He runs the floor very well. They will lob the ball to him a few times a game, typically for a thunderous dunk.
Kepnang is a similar type of player to Dante, but doesn't do anything quite as well.
Williams was a starter last year, but lost his starting job. He's a decent outside shooter and loves the 3 from the corner.
Rivaldo Soares plays. He also bricks quite a few 3's when he is on the floor.
CONCLUSION
This is almost impossible to predict. Will good Oregon or bad Oregon be playing? Who will be playing for UCLA, and who will be close to 100%?
In our first game Jaylen Clark played 17 minutes and was not a factor. David Singleton played 7 minutes. Johnny Juzang had a great game. We are not the same team that lost 5 weeks ago.
We are a better team than they are, but their quickness makes them a tough matchup for us.
This is not a typical Oregon team, but they are dangerous.
I still don't see us losing to them twice.
Just as with ASU, you never know which team you are going to get with Oregon. The team that beat UCLA and USC on the road? Or the team that lost to Cal by 12 and ASU by 24? The team that won 10 of 11 or the team that has lost 3 of their last 4 and only beat WSU by 3?
They truly are the Schizo, Schizo Ducks.
Who would try to predict anything about the most unpredictable team in the country? Only a complete idiot. But you folks already knew that about me.
This is also our second chance to avenge a loss.
Before the first game I mentioned I was worried about the quickness of Oregon's guards. It still worries me.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD (Estimated UCLA -4)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 71% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 63% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-70 .
The computers think this is the toughest game remaining on our schedule.
The computers think this is the toughest game remaining on our schedule.
Oregon | UCLA | |
NET | 63 | 13 |
KenPom Rank | 73 | 9 |
Sagarin Rank | 40 | 11 |
Torvick Rank | 50 | 12 |
SOS | 56 | 41 |
Record | 17-10 | 20-5 |
Even their computer rankings are all over the map, ranging from 40 to 73.
OREGON'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 3-3 | 5-2 | 6-0 | 6-0 |
Oregon | 2-4 | 4-3 | 3-3 | 7-0 |
Oregon's best wins over UCLA, SC, and is a home win over SMU who is #46 in the NET, and #60 in Kenpom. Really Oregon has a 2-game resume, those road wins over UCLA and SC. Other than that, there is nothing impressive about their record.
Their worst losses are two losses to Arizona State, and home losses to Colorado and Cal.
Why two losses to ASU? Oregon has very quick guards. So does ASU. Maybe the Sun Devils match up well with them.
UCLA Home | 5-3 |
Oregon Home | 11-4 |
All three of their Quad 3 losses are at home. They won both their Quad 2 games at home. Go figure.
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
Oregon will have had 5 days between games, having no game since Saturday. We will have had 3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 113 | 15 |
Torvick Rank | 85 | 16 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 68 | 77 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 182 | 230 |
FG Percent | 43% | 45% |
Effective FG % | 50% (172) | 50% (155) |
3-Pt Percent | 32% (109) | 35% (88) |
3-Pt Frequency | 38% (180) | 32% (300) |
2-Pt Percent | 51% (218) | 49% (198) |
FT Percent | 73% | |
Assists Percent | 50% (151) | 51% (185) |
Turnover Percent | 20.5% (65) | 13.8% (6) |
Block Percent | 7.9% (210) | 7.4% (55) |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 30.6% (274) | 31.7% (68) |
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Looking at the stats, our offense is better than their defense in every single way. We shoot the 2 and the 3 better than they defend them. We avoid turnovers, better than they cause them. We don't get a lot of our shots blocked and they don't block a lot of them. We are good at getting offensive rebounds and they give up quite a few of them.
And yet we only shot 40% from the field and 28% from the arc, and we turned the ball over 13 times, over our season average of 9.5 turnovers.
To start with, Peyton Watson took 12 shots and made 4 of them. Bernard took 13 shots and made 2 of them, going 1 0f 8 from the arc. Only Juzang took more shots than those two, and he had a good night.
Jaquez only took 6 shots and finished with 4 points.. My point? The wrong people were shooting Of course, some of the credit goes to Dana Altman and his game plan.
We also missed 8 free throws in a game we lost by 3 in OT.
Another factor is the very quick guards. We seem to have a problem with quick guards. We haven't shot all that well against ASU in either game we played against them nor against Oregon. These are both teams with quick guards.
On the other hand, this was an unusually good defensive outing for the Ducks. The only Pac-12 teams that shot this poorly against them were Colorado, Washington, WSU, and OSU, all of whom are pretty offensively challenged.
I expect we will have a better shooting night than we had in Pauley, but still a bit below out
The most interesting game within the game should involve turnovers. Oregon likes to get turnovers. We don't turn it over much. The turnover battle could decide the game. We REALLY need Tyger to play.
Neither team plays that fast, so tempo should not be an issue.
OREGONS'S OFFENSE VS UCLA'S DEFENSE
Oregon Offense | UCLA Defense | |
KenPom Rank | 49 | 13 |
Torvick Rank | 31 | 16 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 72 | 64 |
FG Percent | 43% | 64% |
Effective FG % | 52% (94) | 47% (51) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (126) | 32% (71) |
3-Pt Frequency | 36% (220) | 38% (190) |
2-Pt Percent | 52% (81) | 47% (57) |
FT Percent | 68% | |
Assists Percent | 44% (315) | 52% (200) |
Turnover Percent | 17.6% (114) | 19.8% (102) |
Block Percent | 6.9% (38) | 10.1% (112) |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 30.0% (122) | 25.1% (60) |
Oregon has a good offense. Our defense is more highly ranked in just about every category.
We are better at defending the 3 than they are at shooting it. We are slightly better defending the 2, than they shoot it.
They don't get a lot of shots blocked but we don't block a ton of shots. We are good at defending our defensive board.
Their low assist rate indicates how they play. They like to spread the floor and go one-on-one. They will penetrate to get to the rim or kick it out. Since they are very quick, it is hard for us to stop it.
Oregon's players are very quick. Everyone except the centers are very good one-on-one players. Staying in front of them won't be easy. However in the first game, we held them to 40% shooting, and 28% from the arc. Since them our defense has improved.
They are a pretty bad FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
Oregon | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 0.2 | 3.9 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
We should be able to at least match them on the boards. In the first game we out-rebounded them 49-45
Since they don't get a ton of assists, it is not a huge surprise that they don't have a great A/TO margin.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Oregon goes 8 deep. Bittle (who is neither little nor brittle) only makes a brief appearance in most games. Altman usually plays a pretty tight rotation. 8 players is a lot for him.
4 of the 8 are returning from last season, but injury plagued Dante only appeared in 6 games last season.
This is a talented roster, perhaps the most talented after UCLA, SC, and Arizona. Bittle and Dante were 5-star players and Richardson, Kepnang, Harmon, and Guerrier were 4-star players. However, this is not one of Altman's most talented roster.
7 of the 8 are juniors or seniors. There are not a bunch of kids
Talent, experience, and learning to play together. This is pretty typical for Dana Altman, but this is not one of his best teams.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | 3-Pt Freq | Rebounds | Assists | |
Will Richardson | Sr | 27 | 32 | 15 | 48% | 42% | 45% | 3 | 3 |
Jacob Young | Sr5 | 27 | 30 | 11 | 42% | 27% | 28% | 3 | 3 |
De'Vion Harmon | Jr | 27 | 32 | 11 | 41 | 36% | 44% | 2 | 2 |
Quincy Guerrier | Jr | 27 | 26 | 9 | 43% | 32% | 54% | 5 | 1 |
N'Faly Dante | Jr | 25 | 20 | 8 | 67% | 6 | 1 | ||
Eric Williams Jr. | Sr | 25 | 27 | 8 | 37% | 35% | 44% | 5 | 1 |
Franck Kepnang | So | 27 | 14 | 5 | 60% | 3 | 0 | ||
Rivaldo Soares | Jr | 27 | 18 | 4 | 43% | 26% | 53% | 3 | 1 |
Nate Bittle | Fr | 18 | 6 | 1 | 47% | 2 | 0 |
Will Richardson is their best player. He can score from anywhere on the floor, and with a wide range of shots. He is capable of carrying the team, but he doesn't seem to assert himself on offense in a lot of games.
He leads the team in assists, but has only a 1.7 A/TO ratio. Almost half his shots are 3-point attempts, and he makes a high percentage. Overall, we would probably prefer he shoots 2-point shots, but really we don't want him shooting at all.
That A/TO ratio is the best on the team. They don't have a real PG. OTOH, their offense doesn't really require one, since they are going one-on-one so much.
You may remember Jacob Young going off for 23 against us. This is not typical. It was his season high and one of three games where he scored 20 or more. In fact, he is just as likely to score in single digits as double digits. He went 11 of 18 against us, and 16 of those shots were two-pointers. He isn't much of a 3-point threat and he doesn't shoot a lot of them. We want to keep him out of the lane and make him an outsider shooter.
Harmon is a good outside shooter, and he shoots quite a few of them. We would prefer to make him a driver.
Guerrier loves the outside shot. He is second on the team in 3-point attempts. He is third on the team in 3-point makes. He should pass the ball to Harmon more.
Dante is big, strong, and a decent athlete. He can score from anywhere on the floor, as long as he is within a few feet of the basket. He runs the floor very well. They will lob the ball to him a few times a game, typically for a thunderous dunk.
Kepnang is a similar type of player to Dante, but doesn't do anything quite as well.
Williams was a starter last year, but lost his starting job. He's a decent outside shooter and loves the 3 from the corner.
Rivaldo Soares plays. He also bricks quite a few 3's when he is on the floor.
CONCLUSION
This is almost impossible to predict. Will good Oregon or bad Oregon be playing? Who will be playing for UCLA, and who will be close to 100%?
In our first game Jaylen Clark played 17 minutes and was not a factor. David Singleton played 7 minutes. Johnny Juzang had a great game. We are not the same team that lost 5 weeks ago.
We are a better team than they are, but their quickness makes them a tough matchup for us.
This is not a typical Oregon team, but they are dangerous.
I still don't see us losing to them twice.