Post by mhbruin on Feb 20, 2022 12:11:16 GMT -8
After a couple of easy wins, we start the schizophrenic section of the schedule. Teams that have the ability to beat just about anyone and lost to just about anyone.
Which Arizona State team will show up? Which Bruin team will show up? Which Bruins will play? Will Celine give Jeremy a Rose?
I don't have the answer to any of those questions, but if you want to see me flail around for an answer, keep reading.
METRICS
Line:(Estimated) UCLA -13.5 UCLA -15
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 96% of the time.
Our last two wins have moved us from 14 to 13 in the NET, but from 12 to 8 in KemPom.
The computers think this will be an easy win. They also thought we would have an easy win in Tempe. Here's what they said:
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 94% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 79-63.
Maybe they'll be right this time.
ASU'S RECORD
Arizona State started the season with an entirely new team. 9 players transferred out and Josh Christopher went to the NBA.
That leaves them with 4 returning players, if you count John Olmstead, who plays has played a total of 9 minutes all season.
Sound bad? Marcus Bagley, who may be their best player, has been out with an injury and has only played in 3 games.
If you are counting (and even if you are not) that leaves Bobby Hurley with 2 returning players. It's almost enough to make you feel sympathy for Bobby Hurley. Almost.
After all, Bobby Hurley may have something to do with the fact that virtually everyone wanted to leave.
With all the new pieces and a brutal schedule, I guess it is no surprise that the Sun Devils started the badly. The recent improvement may not come as a total shock, either.
What do you make a of team with 4 Quad 1 wins, a 1-5 record in Quad 2, and a 5-3 record in the bottom two quads? Inconsistent? Yes. Dangerous? Yes.
ASU has a couple of good road wins at Creighton and at Washington State. They also seem to be Oregon's nemesis, beating them twice, including a 24-point dismantling.
They also have some bad losses to Riverside and California.
They lost to Washington State at home which isn't that terrible, but they scored 29 points. They had more turnover and more fouls than made field goals. They shot 3 of 26 from the arc and 21% from the field.
However, they played well against Baylor, and only lost to San Diego State by 2 and USF by 1.
Inconsistent and dangerous. Danger, Will Robinson! Danger!
We are very good at home. They are not very good on the road.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ASU'S DEFENSE
In general, we are a play offensive better than they play defense. That didn't hold in the first game. We shot 37% from the field and 22% from the arc. They played very good defense, but we missed quite a few easy shots. Nobody shot well, Jaquez was the only one who was decent. Even Singleton was 1 of 5 from the arc.
That shouldn't be a total shock. They held teams below 40% shooting 14 times this season.
HOWEVER, we basely lost in three overtimes. I also find it hard to believe we will repeat that performance.
BTW, UCLA is an efficient offense in spite of only decent shooting percentages, because we don't turn the ball over.
ASU plays pretty slow, but we play slower.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
ASU's offense is pretty bad, but it seems to have improve marginally since our first game.
There aren't any good offensive numbers for ASU. There are terrible numbers like points per possession, 3-point shooting, 2 point shooting, and FT percent. The rest are OK. The best is they don't turn the ball over a ton.
OTOH, they had a pretty good game against us. They only shot better 12 times all season, and better from the arc 8 times. Only 4 of those good shooting performances were on the road.
OTHER FACTORS
UCLA is good on the boards. ASU is not. However, in the first game we only out-rebounded them by 6.
We have a better A/TO Ratio.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Arizona State goes 9 deep. If you see Bobby Hurley enter the game, they are way ahead or way behind. (It's his son.)
Hurley filled his roster with transfers, Muhammad and Gaffney are from Ohio State, Heath is from Boston College, Horne is from Toledo, and Jackson is from Illinois State
Boakye and Neal are freshmen. Boakye is a 5-star center who was offered by UCLA, among others. He is the only scholarship center on the team. He is athletic, but VERY raw.
There is a reason they are getting out-rebounded.
A big part of ASU's improvement has been the improvement of Marreon Jackson and Jalen Graham. They were both terrible earlier in the season, and they have really come on recently.
In his last 3 games, Jackson has shot 16 of 25 (64%) from the field and 11 of 18 (61%) from the arc. He was shooting 30% and 22% going into our first game.
In the same 3-game stretch, Graham has shot 18 of 31 (58%) and made his only 3-point shot of the season.
Meanwhile Horne's shooting has fallen off, as has his scoring.
Kimani Lawrence continues to be a solid inside threat, and Jay Heath is still mostly a threat from the arc, where he takes 40% of his shots.
If there is a problem it is their bench.
Muhammad shot 3's well as a freshman at Ohio State, but his shooting has gotten worse every year since. That isn't how it is supposed to work.
Gaffney is a good passing big man, but not great at scoring, and he doesn't seem to like the paint. At 6'9", almost half his shots are 3's.
CONCLUSION
Here's what I wrote before the first game:
"This game looks like a mismatch on paper. We are more experienced, more talented, better on offense, better on defense, better on the boards."
All of that is true, EXCEPT for the rust. If anything we are playing a ton of games in a short time. But so is everyone.
ASU is playing better than they were when we went to Tempe, but we are the better team in sprite of outcome.
Their destruction of Oregon on the road worries me, but we seen to have recovered our stride.
As long as our entire starting lineup doesn't play, I think we win.
Which Arizona State team will show up? Which Bruin team will show up? Which Bruins will play? Will Celine give Jeremy a Rose?
I don't have the answer to any of those questions, but if you want to see me flail around for an answer, keep reading.
METRICS
Line:
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 96% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 93% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 78-60.
ASU | UCLA | |
NET | 118 | 13 |
KenPom Rank | 117 | 8 |
Sagarin Rank | 91 | 11 |
Torvick Rank | 111 | 12 |
SOS | 8 | 31 |
Record | 10-15 | 19-5 |
Our last two wins have moved us from 14 to 13 in the NET, but from 12 to 8 in KemPom.
The computers think this will be an easy win. They also thought we would have an easy win in Tempe. Here's what they said:
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 94% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 79-63.
Maybe they'll be right this time.
ASU'S RECORD
Arizona State started the season with an entirely new team. 9 players transferred out and Josh Christopher went to the NBA.
That leaves them with 4 returning players, if you count John Olmstead, who plays has played a total of 9 minutes all season.
Sound bad? Marcus Bagley, who may be their best player, has been out with an injury and has only played in 3 games.
If you are counting (and even if you are not) that leaves Bobby Hurley with 2 returning players. It's almost enough to make you feel sympathy for Bobby Hurley. Almost.
After all, Bobby Hurley may have something to do with the fact that virtually everyone wanted to leave.
With all the new pieces and a brutal schedule, I guess it is no surprise that the Sun Devils started the badly. The recent improvement may not come as a total shock, either.
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 3-3 | 5-2 | 8-0 | 3-0 |
ASU | 4-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
What do you make a of team with 4 Quad 1 wins, a 1-5 record in Quad 2, and a 5-3 record in the bottom two quads? Inconsistent? Yes. Dangerous? Yes.
ASU has a couple of good road wins at Creighton and at Washington State. They also seem to be Oregon's nemesis, beating them twice, including a 24-point dismantling.
They also have some bad losses to Riverside and California.
They lost to Washington State at home which isn't that terrible, but they scored 29 points. They had more turnover and more fouls than made field goals. They shot 3 of 26 from the arc and 21% from the field.
However, they played well against Baylor, and only lost to San Diego State by 2 and USF by 1.
Inconsistent and dangerous. Danger, Will Robinson! Danger!
UCLA Home | 12-1 |
ASU Road | 3-6 |
We are very good at home. They are not very good on the road.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ASU'S DEFENSE
ASU Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 42 | 15 |
Torvick Rank | 35 | 16 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 69 | 77 |
Points per Possession (allowed / scored) | 0.96 (96) | 1.08 (28) |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 160 | 212 |
FG Percent | 40% | 45% |
3-Pt Percent | 32% (84) | 36% (77) |
2-Pt Percent | 46% (33) | 50% (185) |
3-Pt Frequency | 40% | 32% |
FT Percent | 71% | |
Assist Percent | 56% (314) | 51% (187) |
Turnover Percent | 19.7% (107) | 13.6% (4) |
Block Percent | 12.6% (40) | 7.4% (56 |
In general, we are a play offensive better than they play defense. That didn't hold in the first game. We shot 37% from the field and 22% from the arc. They played very good defense, but we missed quite a few easy shots. Nobody shot well, Jaquez was the only one who was decent. Even Singleton was 1 of 5 from the arc.
That shouldn't be a total shock. They held teams below 40% shooting 14 times this season.
HOWEVER, we basely lost in three overtimes. I also find it hard to believe we will repeat that performance.
BTW, UCLA is an efficient offense in spite of only decent shooting percentages, because we don't turn the ball over.
ASU plays pretty slow, but we play slower.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
ASU's offense is pretty bad, but it seems to have improve marginally since our first game.
UCLA Defense | ASU Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 14 | 233 |
Torvick Rank | 16 | 233 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 63 |
Points per Possession (allowed / scored) | 0.91 (28) | 0.91 (333) |
FG Percent | 41% | 40% |
3-Pt Percent | 31.7% (67) | 29.6% (330) |
3-Pt Frequency | 38.3% (195) | 37,8% (179) |
2-Pt Percent | 46.7% (56) | 46.5% (294) |
FT Percent | 66.5% (329) | |
Assist Percent | 51.9% (198) | 53.2% (122) |
Turnover Percent | 19.8% (100) | 17.4% (105) |
Block Percent | d10.1% (111) | 8.4% (129) |
There aren't any good offensive numbers for ASU. There are terrible numbers like points per possession, 3-point shooting, 2 point shooting, and FT percent. The rest are OK. The best is they don't turn the ball over a ton.
OTOH, they had a pretty good game against us. They only shot better 12 times all season, and better from the arc 8 times. Only 4 of those good shooting performances were on the road.
OTHER FACTORS
ASU | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | -5.4 | 3.9 |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 25.7% (266) | 31.7% (67) |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.1 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 51% | 53% |
UCLA is good on the boards. ASU is not. However, in the first game we only out-rebounded them by 6.
We have a better A/TO Ratio.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Arizona State goes 9 deep. If you see Bobby Hurley enter the game, they are way ahead or way behind. (It's his son.)
Hurley filled his roster with transfers, Muhammad and Gaffney are from Ohio State, Heath is from Boston College, Horne is from Toledo, and Jackson is from Illinois State
Boakye and Neal are freshmen. Boakye is a 5-star center who was offered by UCLA, among others. He is the only scholarship center on the team. He is athletic, but VERY raw.
There is a reason they are getting out-rebounded.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | |
D. J. Horne | So | 25 | 30 | 13 | 40% | 36% | 3 | 1.8 |
Kimani Lawrence | Sr | 24 | 30 | 11 | 53% | 0% | 7 | 1.5 |
Marreon Jackson | Sr | 25 | 28 | 10 | 34% | 29% | 4 | 3.9 |
Jay Heath | So | 22 | 23 | 10 | 35% | 39% | 4 | 1.3 |
Jalen Graham | Jr | 23 | 28 | 10 | 49% | 7% | 5 | 1.7 |
Luther Muhammad | Jr | 24 | 19 | 5 | 29% | 16% | 2 | 1.1 |
Alonzo Gaffney | Jr | 24 | 21 | 4 | 39% | 26% | 3 | 0.9 |
Enoch Boakye | Fr | 25 | 14 | 3 | 54% | 0% | 4 | 0.2 |
Jamiya Neal | Fr | 25 | 15 | 2 | 23% | 20% | 2 | 0.6 |
A big part of ASU's improvement has been the improvement of Marreon Jackson and Jalen Graham. They were both terrible earlier in the season, and they have really come on recently.
In his last 3 games, Jackson has shot 16 of 25 (64%) from the field and 11 of 18 (61%) from the arc. He was shooting 30% and 22% going into our first game.
In the same 3-game stretch, Graham has shot 18 of 31 (58%) and made his only 3-point shot of the season.
Meanwhile Horne's shooting has fallen off, as has his scoring.
Kimani Lawrence continues to be a solid inside threat, and Jay Heath is still mostly a threat from the arc, where he takes 40% of his shots.
If there is a problem it is their bench.
Muhammad shot 3's well as a freshman at Ohio State, but his shooting has gotten worse every year since. That isn't how it is supposed to work.
Gaffney is a good passing big man, but not great at scoring, and he doesn't seem to like the paint. At 6'9", almost half his shots are 3's.
CONCLUSION
Here's what I wrote before the first game:
"This game looks like a mismatch on paper. We are more experienced, more talented, better on offense, better on defense, better on the boards."
All of that is true, EXCEPT for the rust. If anything we are playing a ton of games in a short time. But so is everyone.
ASU is playing better than they were when we went to Tempe, but we are the better team in sprite of outcome.
Their destruction of Oregon on the road worries me, but we seen to have recovered our stride.
As long as our entire starting lineup doesn't play, I think we win.