Post by mhbruin on Feb 2, 2022 12:37:33 GMT -8
How do the NET ranking and the tournaments seeds line up? Better than I expected, at least in 2021.
* The N.C.A.A.’s NET ranking has Colgate as the ninth best team in the country. The Raiders (14-1) played only five teams this season — all in the Patriot League, whose tournament they won on Sunday. But they were given a computer turbo boost because Army and Navy, the only Patriot teams that played outside the league, had a close loss to Florida and a victory over Georgetown on their résumés. Colgate was given the 14th seed in the South region and matched up against Arkansas in the first round.
Based on a WAY TOO SMALL sample of one year, here are some conclusions:
| NET | ACTUAL SEED | PROJECTED SEED | DIFFERENCE | TEAM |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Gonzaga |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Baylor |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Michigan |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Illinois |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Houston |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Iowa |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Alabama |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Ohio State |
| 9 | 14 | 3 | -11 | Colgate* |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | -5 | Loyola Chicago |
| 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | Kansas |
| 12 | 4 | 3 | -1 | Virginia |
| 13 | 5 | 4 | -1 | Tennessee |
| 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | Arkansas |
| 15 | 5 | 4 | -1 | Colorado |
| 16 | 5 | 4 | -1 | Villanova |
| 17 | 6 | 5 | -1 | Texas Tech |
| 18 | 6 | 5 | -1 | San Diego St |
| 19 | 6 | 5 | -1 | USC |
| 20 | 6 | 5 | -1 | BYU |
| 21 | 3 | 6 | 3 | Texas |
| 22 | 4 | 6 | 2 | Purdue |
| 23 | 3 | 6 | 3 | West Virginia |
| 24 | 4 | 6 | 2 | Florida St |
| 25 | 5 | 7 | 2 | Creighton |
| 26 | 9 | 7 | -2 | Wisconsin |
| 27 | 9 | 7 | -2 | St Bonaventure |
| 28 | 8 | 7 | -1 | LSU |
| 29 | 4 | 8 | 4 | Oklahoma St |
| 30 | 7 | 8 | 1 | Connecticut |
| 31 | 7 | 8 | 1 | Florida |
| 32 | 8 | 8 | 0 | North Carolina |
| 33 | 9 | 9 | 0 | Georgia Tech |
| 34 | 7 | 9 | 2 | Oregon |
| 35 | 10 | 9 | -1 | Maryland |
| 36 | 10 | 9 | -1 | VCU |
| 37 | 8 | 10 | 1 | Oklahoma |
| 38 | 10 | 10 | 0 | Rutgers |
| 39 | 11 | 10 | 1 | Utah St |
| 40 | 11 | 10 | 1 | Syracuse |
| 41 | 7 | 11 | 4 | Clemson |
| 42 | Out | 11 | Penn St | |
| 43 | Out | 11 | St Louis | |
| 44 | Out | 11 | Arizona | |
| 45 | 11 | Out | Drake | |
| 46 | 11 | Out | UCLA | |
| 50 | Out | Out | Boise St | |
| 53 | Out | Out | Mississippi | |
| 56 | Out | Out | Louisville | |
| 70 | 11 | Out | Michigan St | |
| 72 | 11 | Out | Wichita St |
* The N.C.A.A.’s NET ranking has Colgate as the ninth best team in the country. The Raiders (14-1) played only five teams this season — all in the Patriot League, whose tournament they won on Sunday. But they were given a computer turbo boost because Army and Navy, the only Patriot teams that played outside the league, had a close loss to Florida and a victory over Georgetown on their résumés. Colgate was given the 14th seed in the South region and matched up against Arkansas in the first round.
- The #1 and #2 seeds were all predicted by the NET.
- 27 of the Top 40 teams were within one line of their projected seed.
- 36 of 40 were within two seed lines.
- Aside from Colgate, the most "under-seeded" teams was Loyola Chicago, which upset #1 Illinois on it's way to the Sweet 16.
- The most "over-seeded" teams were Oklahoma State and Clemson.
- #4 Oklahoma State was upset by #12 Oregon State in the 2nd Round.
- #7 Clemson lost to #10 Rutgers in the First Round.
Based on a WAY TOO SMALL sample of one year, here are some conclusions:
- The NET is a very good predictor of the top 2 seeds.
- Overall the NET is a pretty good predictor of all the seeds.
- The NET is not a good predictor of which bubble teams get in.
- The NET seems to do a better job of seeding than the committee, except for a weird case like Colgate.