Post by mhbruin on Jan 28, 2022 16:59:28 GMT -8
The computers think this game will be a laugher. They say our chances of winning this game are around the same as our chances were of beating Cal.
If there is any laughter about this game, it might be people laughing at the computers. Stanford is a good team with some significant talent. Cal is not.
It would be nice if this were an easy win. After this we have to run the gauntlet of 4 road games in 10 days. Trips to ASU and Stanford are sandwiched in between games at Arizona and at SC.
This could be a trap game, but I don't see any way we take this team lightly. Stanford reminded everyone how dangerous they are at Galen.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -13
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 96% of the time.
The computers think we are a better team. We are the better team, but this is hardly a mismatch.
Stanford has played the second hardest schedule in the Pac-12, only behind Arizona St.
STANFORD'S RECORD
Stanford has won 6 of their last 8, and2 in a row. That includes two wins over SC.
Stanford has more Quad 1 wins than any other team in the Pac-12. We are the only team in the league with 3 of them.
Stanford's best wins are over SC and over Wyoming who is #32 in the NET. Their worst loss is at Washington, who is not the horrible Huskies of the last two years.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
We are an excellent offensive team. Stanford is a decent defensive team. There is nothing to indicate they will slow us down.
We are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the US. They are not great at defending the 3.
Stanford is one of the tallest teams in the country, which usually would indicate they have a strong inside defense. However, they don't block a lot of shots. They are tall, but a hair slow and they are not great leapers. Jaime should not have the problems he had against Arizona.
They play around the same tempo as we play, so neither team should have the edge on that.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD'S OFFENSE
Stanford is not a great offensive team, but they aren't terrible That seems to be a theme with Stanford. Not great, but not terrible. I guess in the mediocre Pac-12, that's good enough for 4th place in the league.
Stanford has two weaknesses. First they turn the ball over a lot. That probably explains why they lost to Washington who leads the league in steals. Second they are not a great FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
As you might expect for a tall team, Stanford is very good on the boards. They rebound 35% of their misses which is #22 in the country.
Their A/TO ratio isn't very good, but that is because they have a lot of turnovers. They also have a lot of assists.
As mentioned, they are not much of a shot-blocking team, but they do get quite a few steals.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Stanford plays a lot of players. They will normally play 11, but Noah Taitz did not play against SC, so they may go only 10 deep against us. Or they may go 11 deep. You may not be able to keep track of all the guys going in and out.
Stanford is one of the few teams in the country who didn't bring in a transfer last season, and they only have three freshmen who play, so 8 of the 11 are guys who have been in the program.
3 of the 11 are juniors or seniors. The Cardinal have experience, but I am not sure you would call this a veteran.
Harrison Ingram is the likely conference Freshman of the Year. He was a McDonalds AA, and he leads the team in scoring and rebounding. He (like quite a few Cardinals) is more dangerous from outside than near the basket.
Delaire is only senior who plays a lot. He is a threat both inside and outside. but he can get into trouble trying to post up. He leads the team in turnovers.
Spencer Jones is considered their best 3-point threat, although his percentage is down this year. He is probably their best defender, and he leads the team in steals and blocks.
Michael O'Connell is their primary ball-handler. He has an excellent 2.0 A/TO ratio, but he hasn't been a great shooter.
Maxime Raynaud is a 7' 1" freshman from France. He is an excellent rebounder, and he is 6 of 12 from the arc this season.
James Keefe is a former walk-on. You will hear a number of references to Adam Keefe, his father, on Saturday. He provides a physical presence inside, although he is not nearly as skilled as Dad.
Isa Silva will be a very good PG in the future, but that this point he turns the ball over way too much. He is a dangerous outside shooter.
CONCLUSION
It's hard to know what to make of Stanford. Based on their stats, they aren't very good. Based on their win/loss record, they are a good team.
I think this is a pretty good matchup for us. They are big, but not all that athletic or fast.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we are more talented, better on offense, and better on defense. However that was true about SC, and they lost to them twice.
Arizona and Baylor blew them out. Otherwise, they have been close in their losses. I think we win the game, but it will be close all the way. Be prepared to bite your nails, pull your hair out, yell at the TV a lot, and drink more than usual.
Even if I were a wagering man, I would not take Stanford +13. I wouldn't touch that line with a 10-foot pole or a 7-foot frenchman.
If there is any laughter about this game, it might be people laughing at the computers. Stanford is a good team with some significant talent. Cal is not.
It would be nice if this were an easy win. After this we have to run the gauntlet of 4 road games in 10 days. Trips to ASU and Stanford are sandwiched in between games at Arizona and at SC.
This could be a trap game, but I don't see any way we take this team lightly. Stanford reminded everyone how dangerous they are at Galen.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -13
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 96% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 93% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 81-65 .
Stanford | UCLA | |
NET | 86 | 11 |
KenPom Rank | 83 | 10 |
Sagarin Rank | 81 | 11 |
Torvick Rank | 102 | 10 |
SOS | 16 | 30 |
Record | 12-6 | 15-2 |
The computers think we are a better team. We are the better team, but this is hardly a mismatch.
Stanford has played the second hardest schedule in the Pac-12, only behind Arizona St.
STANFORD'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 3-1 | 4-1 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
Stanford | 4-3 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 5-0 |
Stanford has won 6 of their last 8, and2 in a row. That includes two wins over SC.
Stanford has more Quad 1 wins than any other team in the Pac-12. We are the only team in the league with 3 of them.
Stanford's best wins are over SC and over Wyoming who is #32 in the NET. Their worst loss is at Washington, who is not the horrible Huskies of the last two years.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
UCLA Home | 9-1 |
Stanford Road | 2-4 |
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
Stanford Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 94 | 16 |
Torvick Rank | 103 | 15 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 70 | 79 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 161 | 170 |
FG Percent | 45% | 46% |
Eff FG Percent | 52% (265) | 52% (88) |
3-Pt Percent | 37% | 33% |
2-Pt Percent | 54% | 51% |
FT Percent | 72% | |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 14 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 12 | 10 |
We are an excellent offensive team. Stanford is a decent defensive team. There is nothing to indicate they will slow us down.
We are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the US. They are not great at defending the 3.
Stanford is one of the tallest teams in the country, which usually would indicate they have a strong inside defense. However, they don't block a lot of shots. They are tall, but a hair slow and they are not great leapers. Jaime should not have the problems he had against Arizona.
They play around the same tempo as we play, so neither team should have the edge on that.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Stanford Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 15 | 94 |
Torvick Rank | 21 | 125 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 69 |
FG Percent | 41% | 44% |
Eff FG Percent | 48% (85) | 50% (172) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% | 36% |
2-Pt Percent | 47% | 54% |
FT Percent | 66% | |
Assists Per Game | 14 | 14 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 14 | 16 |
Stanford is not a great offensive team, but they aren't terrible That seems to be a theme with Stanford. Not great, but not terrible. I guess in the mediocre Pac-12, that's good enough for 4th place in the league.
Stanford has two weaknesses. First they turn the ball over a lot. That probably explains why they lost to Washington who leads the league in steals. Second they are not a great FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
Stanford | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 8 | 4 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.9 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 49% | 57% |
Blocks | 2.6 | 4.3 |
Steals | 6.2 | 6.6 |
As you might expect for a tall team, Stanford is very good on the boards. They rebound 35% of their misses which is #22 in the country.
Their A/TO ratio isn't very good, but that is because they have a lot of turnovers. They also have a lot of assists.
As mentioned, they are not much of a shot-blocking team, but they do get quite a few steals.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Stanford plays a lot of players. They will normally play 11, but Noah Taitz did not play against SC, so they may go only 10 deep against us. Or they may go 11 deep. You may not be able to keep track of all the guys going in and out.
Stanford is one of the few teams in the country who didn't bring in a transfer last season, and they only have three freshmen who play, so 8 of the 11 are guys who have been in the program.
3 of the 11 are juniors or seniors. The Cardinal have experience, but I am not sure you would call this a veteran.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | |
Harrison Ingram F | Fr | 18 | 30 | 12 | 41% | 35% | 7 | 3 |
Jaiden Delaire F | Sr | 18 | 23 | 11 | 43% | 38% | 4 | 1 |
Spencer Jones F | Jr | 17 | 26 | 10 | 47% | 34% | 4 | 1 |
Brandon Angel F | So | 18 | 20 | 9 | 49% | 38% | 3 | 1 |
Michael O'Connell G | So | 18 | 26 | 7 | 38% | 29% | 3 | 4 |
Maxime Raynaud F | Fr | 15 | 13 | 5 | 52% | 50% | 4 | 1 |
Noah Taitz G | So | 14 | 14 | 5 | 38% | 43% | 2 | 1 |
James Keefe F | Jr | 16 | 18 | 4 | 67% | 0% | 4 | 1 |
Isa Silva G | Fr | 18 | 14 | 4 | 41% | 53% | 1 | 2 |
Max Murrell F | So | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30% | 28% | 1 | 0 |
Lukas Kisunas F | Sr | 18 | 10 | 3 | 68% | 0% | 3 | 0 |
Harrison Ingram is the likely conference Freshman of the Year. He was a McDonalds AA, and he leads the team in scoring and rebounding. He (like quite a few Cardinals) is more dangerous from outside than near the basket.
Delaire is only senior who plays a lot. He is a threat both inside and outside. but he can get into trouble trying to post up. He leads the team in turnovers.
Spencer Jones is considered their best 3-point threat, although his percentage is down this year. He is probably their best defender, and he leads the team in steals and blocks.
Michael O'Connell is their primary ball-handler. He has an excellent 2.0 A/TO ratio, but he hasn't been a great shooter.
Maxime Raynaud is a 7' 1" freshman from France. He is an excellent rebounder, and he is 6 of 12 from the arc this season.
James Keefe is a former walk-on. You will hear a number of references to Adam Keefe, his father, on Saturday. He provides a physical presence inside, although he is not nearly as skilled as Dad.
Isa Silva will be a very good PG in the future, but that this point he turns the ball over way too much. He is a dangerous outside shooter.
CONCLUSION
It's hard to know what to make of Stanford. Based on their stats, they aren't very good. Based on their win/loss record, they are a good team.
I think this is a pretty good matchup for us. They are big, but not all that athletic or fast.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we are more talented, better on offense, and better on defense. However that was true about SC, and they lost to them twice.
Arizona and Baylor blew them out. Otherwise, they have been close in their losses. I think we win the game, but it will be close all the way. Be prepared to bite your nails, pull your hair out, yell at the TV a lot, and drink more than usual.
Even if I were a wagering man, I would not take Stanford +13. I wouldn't touch that line with a 10-foot pole or a 7-foot frenchman.