Post by mhbruin on Jan 26, 2022 15:59:58 GMT -8
I didn't think we would have an easy game playing Cal on the road earlier in the year. It wasn't an easy game, but it was an 8-point win.
I think this will be an easy game. Just don't tell our players that.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -15.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 95% of the time.
The computers think we are a better team. (We are a better team.)
We have played a comparable SOS, and we have a much better record.
CAL'S RECORD
Cal has lost 3 games since we last played them, and five in a row.
Cal's best win is a home win over Fresno State. They have a bad loss at UNLV and a terrible loss to UC San Diego.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
They haven't won a road game, but they haven't been getting blown out, either. They lost to WSU by 8, Utah by 8, UNLV by 3, and Washington by 9. Of course, none of those teams are as good as we are.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS CAL'S DEFENSE
Cal's defense is respectable. Our offense is one of the best in the country. We didn't have a great shooting night against them in Berkley. They might slow us down a little, but I don't think they slow us down that much. Advantage: UCLA.
Cal plays the slowest tempo in the Pac-12 -- by a LOT. The only major conference teams that play slower are Va Tech, Texas, Villanova, and Virginia. We don't play that fast, but we play much faster than Cal. We need to be willing to play a full 30 seconds of defense on every possession.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS CAL'S OFFENSE
This is a bigger mismatch. We are one of the top defenses in the country, and they are a very mediocre offense.
In the first game they shot 40% from the field and only 7% from the arc. I don't expect them to be 1 of 14 on 3's again, but I do expect them to have a hard time scoring.
OTHER FACTORS
All the other factors favor the Bruins. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better. We get more blocks.
Their assist percentage indicates that they rely on quite a bit of one-on-one play to get a shot, even though they use a lot of clock.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
California goes 10 deep. 8 of them are returning from last season. Their only new players are a 5th-year senior and a freshman. The senior is transfer Jordan Shepherd, who leads the team in scoring and steals.
8 of the 9 are juniors or seniors. This is a veteran team, who have been playing together for a while.
HOWEVER, this is not a very talented team. The only 4-star player on the roster has been hurt all season. So they are playing a roster of 3-star players.
Honestly, this is an embarrassing roster for a major-conference team. The fact that they have won 9 games and been competitive in others tells me that Mark Fox can coach. The problem is he doesn't seem to be able to recruit.
California gets the bulk of their scoring from 3 players. They take over 60% of all of Cal's shots. And those 3 don't have a lot of assists.
Shepherd is the kind of player who is called "a scorer, not a shooter". That means he scores a lot because he shoots a lot. He leads the team in shot attempts. His shooting percentages are terrible. He takes a lot of terrible shots, and some go in.
Kelly may be their best player, and he does everything well. He is an excellent rebounder. He is their best 2-point and 3-point shooter (although he has only attempted 4 all year). He should take all their shots, but is third on the team in shot attempts.
Anticevich, who has been at Cal since the 2008 season is a good all-round player, but he isn't shooting that well inside the arc. He is more dangerous from outside. He leads the team in 3-point attempts.
At times Celestine looks very good, and at other times he looks like the #402 player in his class. He is one of the better 3-point shooters on a team which doesn't have a lot of good 3-point shooters.
Joel Brown is the primary ball-handler, and he is a lot more focused on setting up his teammates than scoring. He doesn't shoot that much, but he can hit the 3.
Brown's A/TO ratio is 1.6, which is decent. However, by way of contrast, Tyger's is 3.7, Singleton is 2.6, and Jules is 2.0.
Thiemann is 7'1 and can score around the basket in his 9 minutes per game.
Kuany Kuany is on the Stutterer's Nightmare Team. He perhaps their most athletic player and can hit the outside shot.
CONCLUSION
Earlier in the year, I thought Cal looked decent. At this point I have revised my opinion down. Cal will play hard, but they just don't match up with us.
We are much more talented. We are better on offense, better on defense, and better on the boards. I think we have the better coach. We are playing at home.
You can never take any Division 1 team lightly. However, I have a hard time seeing us not winning convincingly.
According to Torvick, this is one of four laughers left on our schedule, home games against Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Arizona St. I think Stanford is the most dangerous of the bunch, and with the road trip to Arizona on the horizon, that is the trap game. This is just a win.
I think this will be an easy game. Just don't tell our players that.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -15.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 95% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 94% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 76-60 .
Cal | UCLA | |
NET | 130 | 13 |
KenPom Rank | 119 | 10 |
Sagarin Rank | 119 | 11 |
Torvick Rank | 117 | 10 |
SOS | 76 | 30 |
Record | 9-10 | 14-2 |
The computers think we are a better team. (We are a better team.)
We have played a comparable SOS, and we have a much better record.
CAL'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 3-1 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
Cal | 0-6 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 6-1 |
Cal has lost 3 games since we last played them, and five in a row.
Cal's best win is a home win over Fresno State. They have a bad loss at UNLV and a terrible loss to UC San Diego.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
UCLA Home | 8-1 |
California Road | 0-4 |
They haven't won a road game, but they haven't been getting blown out, either. They lost to WSU by 8, Utah by 8, UNLV by 3, and Washington by 9. Of course, none of those teams are as good as we are.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS CAL'S DEFENSE
Cal Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 77 | 16 |
Torvick Rank | 86 | 16 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 79 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 332 | 175 |
FG Percent | 44% | 46% |
Eff FG Percent | 49% (234) | 52% (105) |
3-Pt Percent | 30% | 33% |
2-Pt Percent | 48% | 47% |
FT Percent | 72%% | |
Assists Per Game | 10 | 14 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 10 | 10 |
Cal's defense is respectable. Our offense is one of the best in the country. We didn't have a great shooting night against them in Berkley. They might slow us down a little, but I don't think they slow us down that much. Advantage: UCLA.
Cal plays the slowest tempo in the Pac-12 -- by a LOT. The only major conference teams that play slower are Va Tech, Texas, Villanova, and Virginia. We don't play that fast, but we play much faster than Cal. We need to be willing to play a full 30 seconds of defense on every possession.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS CAL'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Cal Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 15 | 184 |
Torvick Rank | 20 | 174 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 65 |
FG Percent | 41% | 44% |
Eff FG Percent | 47% (73) | 49% (234) |
3-Pt Percent | 33% | 34% |
2-Pt Percent | 46% | 48% |
FT Percent | 72% | |
Assists Per Game | 14 | 11 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 14 | 11 |
This is a bigger mismatch. We are one of the top defenses in the country, and they are a very mediocre offense.
In the first game they shot 40% from the field and only 7% from the arc. I don't expect them to be 1 of 14 on 3's again, but I do expect them to have a hard time scoring.
OTHER FACTORS
Cal | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 3 | 4 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 44% | 50% |
Blocks | 2.4 | 4.3 |
Steals | 4.6 | 6.6 |
All the other factors favor the Bruins. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better. We get more blocks.
Their assist percentage indicates that they rely on quite a bit of one-on-one play to get a shot, even though they use a lot of clock.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
California goes 10 deep. 8 of them are returning from last season. Their only new players are a 5th-year senior and a freshman. The senior is transfer Jordan Shepherd, who leads the team in scoring and steals.
8 of the 9 are juniors or seniors. This is a veteran team, who have been playing together for a while.
HOWEVER, this is not a very talented team. The only 4-star player on the roster has been hurt all season. So they are playing a roster of 3-star players.
Honestly, this is an embarrassing roster for a major-conference team. The fact that they have won 9 games and been competitive in others tells me that Mark Fox can coach. The problem is he doesn't seem to be able to recruit.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | |
Jordan Shepherd | Sr | 19 | 33 | 15 | 38% | 32% | 3 | 3 |
Andre Kelly | Sr | 19 | 31 | 14 | 60% | 50% | 9 | 1 |
Grant Anticevich | Sr 5 | 19 | 32 | 11 | 41% | 35% | 7 | 1 |
Jalen Celestine | So | 18 | 23 | 6 | 43% | 37% | 3 | 1 |
Joel Brown | Jr | 18 | 29 | 5 | 44% | 33% | 4 | 3 |
Makale Foreman | Sr 5 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 34% | 24% | 1 | 1 |
Lars Thiemann | Jr | 19 | 9 | 3 | 51% | 0% | 2 | 0 |
Kuany Kuany | Jr | 17 | 15 | 4 | 40% | 38% | 2 | 1 |
Sam Alajiki | Fr | 17 | 11 | 3 | 51% | 15% | 2 | 0 |
Jarred Hyder | Jr | 17 | 9 | 1 | 23% | `5% | 0 | 1 |
California gets the bulk of their scoring from 3 players. They take over 60% of all of Cal's shots. And those 3 don't have a lot of assists.
Shepherd is the kind of player who is called "a scorer, not a shooter". That means he scores a lot because he shoots a lot. He leads the team in shot attempts. His shooting percentages are terrible. He takes a lot of terrible shots, and some go in.
Kelly may be their best player, and he does everything well. He is an excellent rebounder. He is their best 2-point and 3-point shooter (although he has only attempted 4 all year). He should take all their shots, but is third on the team in shot attempts.
Anticevich, who has been at Cal since the 2008 season is a good all-round player, but he isn't shooting that well inside the arc. He is more dangerous from outside. He leads the team in 3-point attempts.
At times Celestine looks very good, and at other times he looks like the #402 player in his class. He is one of the better 3-point shooters on a team which doesn't have a lot of good 3-point shooters.
Joel Brown is the primary ball-handler, and he is a lot more focused on setting up his teammates than scoring. He doesn't shoot that much, but he can hit the 3.
Brown's A/TO ratio is 1.6, which is decent. However, by way of contrast, Tyger's is 3.7, Singleton is 2.6, and Jules is 2.0.
Thiemann is 7'1 and can score around the basket in his 9 minutes per game.
Kuany Kuany is on the Stutterer's Nightmare Team. He perhaps their most athletic player and can hit the outside shot.
CONCLUSION
Earlier in the year, I thought Cal looked decent. At this point I have revised my opinion down. Cal will play hard, but they just don't match up with us.
We are much more talented. We are better on offense, better on defense, and better on the boards. I think we have the better coach. We are playing at home.
You can never take any Division 1 team lightly. However, I have a hard time seeing us not winning convincingly.
According to Torvick, this is one of four laughers left on our schedule, home games against Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Arizona St. I think Stanford is the most dangerous of the bunch, and with the road trip to Arizona on the horizon, that is the trap game. This is just a win.