Post by mhbruin on Jan 24, 2022 13:57:10 GMT -8
I think quite a few people are pretty pessimistic about this game. Arizona is very good, and we haven't been playing our best ball lately.
However, this game is winnable.
METRICS
Line: TBD
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 48% of the time.
The computers all love Arizona. They like us, but they LOVE Arizona.
Part of it is they are crushing teams. Their average margin of victory is over 24 points.
Ours is about 13, and it is against a tougher schedule.
COLORADO'S RECORD
Their only loss is at Tennessee, #11 in the NET.
Why are people afraid of Arizona? Here are their last four scores: 95-79, 76-55, 82-64, 85-57, and 96-71. Those are winning margins of 18, 21, 28, 28, and 25. They are also against Washington, Colorado, Utah, @stanford, @cal. Not exactly murderers row.
In Quad 1 games (which this will be), they lost to Tennessee by 4, they beat Illinois by 4, and they beat Michigan by 18.
So are they really good at blowing out mediocre teams or are they great?
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
This is a great matchup. We are an elite offense. They are an even more elite defense. They are pretty good at defending the 3, but the best in the country at defending inside the arc. This is in large part because of their shot blocking. They are #3 in the country at blocked shots per game.
We are more efficient on scoring from beyond the arc, but we don't generally rely on outside shooting to score. We may need to rely on it more in this game.
Overall, I would give Arizona the edge here, but not a massive one.
Arizona likes to play fast, really fast. We don't. We should be able to control tempo if we don't turn it over.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
Arizona is on OK 3-point shooting team, but they do their real damage inside the arc. They want to get to the rim early and often. They also want to get it inside to their bigs, who are very effective around the basket. We are good at defending the 2, but hardly great. And our bigs have been foul prone.
There are two keys to our defending them: 1) We have to get back on defense. 2) Riley and Johnson have to stay out of foul trouble. Both are easier said than done.
We would definitely prefer they try to beat us from the outside, where they are less effective, and they might cooperate. Given how effective they are inside, they tend to shoot too many 3's. Hoist it up, Wildcats.
OTHER FACTORS
Nothing in this section favors the Bruins. They are better at crashing the boards, and they have great shot blockers.
Their PG play is almost as good as ours. Tyger's A/TO ratio is 3.6, and Kriisa's is 2.5 and Terry's is 3.1. Their team average is so high because Kim Aiken is 4.7, but he hasn't played since early December. Also, when you are constantly and effectively fast-breaking you can get a lot of easy assists.
The PG matchup will come down to the health of Tyger's thumb.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
This preview is brought to you by the letter "K".
Arizona leads the nations in K's on the roster: Koloko, Kerr Kriisa, Kier, and even Kim Aiken and Ben Ackerley. If it weren't for Jaylen Clark, the Bruins would be K-less.
The Wildcats go 8 deep. Tubelis didn't play in their last game. If he doesn't go, they will be 7 deep.
For the most part, the right guys are shooting 3's for them. Other than Terry, their guards are good, but not great outside shooters. Clearly we would rather have them shooting 3's than having Koloko, Ballo, and Tubelis (if he plays) shooting in the lane.
Everyone has anointed Mathurin as the best player in the league, and he is projected as a lottery pick. He leads the team in scoring, but his numbers don't jump off the page.
Tubelis is a terrific college player and he will play pro ball somewhere. He does everything really well, except shoot the 3, but he can make it.
Koloko has been the big surprise to me. I thought he had to potential to be a very good center, but not this big.
Kerr Kriisa and Dalen Terry make a formidable PG combo. Kriisa isn't that good inside the arc and Terry isn't that good outside.
Ballo has been an afterthought for most of the season, but in their last two games, he has scored in double digits, shooting 11 of 13 from the field and 13 of 16 from the line. I am not sure how much of a break we catch if Tubelis doesn't play.
Pelle Larsson is a good player who would start for a lot of teams. For some reason, he has not signed an NIL deal with Pelle Windows.
CONCLUSION
Any way you slice it, Arizona looks like a better team than we are. If we seemed to be playing our best, I might be more optimistic. However, Tyger and Cody and Jules don't seem to be 100%.
However, there were at least 3 games in the NCAA tournament last year where we were outmatched on paper. ESPN gave us a 27% chance against Alabama, 20% against Michigan, and 10% against Gonzaga, all on a neutral court. The computers give us more than a puncher's chance in this game, and so do I. (Not that my opinion counts for much.)
I am also not ready to declare Tommy Lloyd the next coming. He inherited his starting roster from Sean Miller. He has definitely gotten them to play better team ball than Sean did, but I am not sure he can manage in-game adjustments as well as Mick.
Their games against really good teams have been close, and we are a really good team. I expect a nail-biter.
However, this game is winnable.
METRICS
Line: TBD
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 48% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 44% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA loses 84-76.
Arizona | UCLA | |
NET | 1 | 16 |
KenPom Rank | 2 | 12 |
Sagarin Rank | 2 | 13 |
Torvick Rank | 3 | 15 |
SOS | 96 | 46 |
Record | 16-1 | 13-2 |
The computers all love Arizona. They like us, but they LOVE Arizona.
Part of it is they are crushing teams. Their average margin of victory is over 24 points.
Ours is about 13, and it is against a tougher schedule.
COLORADO'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-1 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
Arizona | 2-1 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
Their only loss is at Tennessee, #11 in the NET.
UCLA Home | 14-2 |
Arizona Road | 4-1 |
Why are people afraid of Arizona? Here are their last four scores: 95-79, 76-55, 82-64, 85-57, and 96-71. Those are winning margins of 18, 21, 28, 28, and 25. They are also against Washington, Colorado, Utah, @stanford, @cal. Not exactly murderers row.
In Quad 1 games (which this will be), they lost to Tennessee by 4, they beat Illinois by 4, and they beat Michigan by 18.
So are they really good at blowing out mediocre teams or are they great?
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
Arizona Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 9 | 17 |
Torvick Rank | 10 | 17 |
Points per game (allowed / scored | 64 | 77 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 2 | 162 |
FG Percent | 36% | 45% |
Eff FG Percent | 42% (1) | 51% (113) |
3-Pt Percent | 31% (82) | 36% (56) |
2-Pt Percent | 39% (1) | 47% (75) |
FT Percent | 72% | |
3-Point Share (rank) | 33.4% | |
Block % | 16% (9) | 7% (25) |
Assists Rate | 33% | 35% |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 13.5 | 9.8 |
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
This is a great matchup. We are an elite offense. They are an even more elite defense. They are pretty good at defending the 3, but the best in the country at defending inside the arc. This is in large part because of their shot blocking. They are #3 in the country at blocked shots per game.
We are more efficient on scoring from beyond the arc, but we don't generally rely on outside shooting to score. We may need to rely on it more in this game.
Overall, I would give Arizona the edge here, but not a massive one.
Arizona likes to play fast, really fast. We don't. We should be able to control tempo if we don't turn it over.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Arizona Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 21 | 8 |
Torvick Rank | 25 | 7 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 79 | 89 |
FG Percent | 42% | 50% |
Eff FG Percent | 51% (113) | 57% (7) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (183) | 35% (108) |
2-Pt Percent | 47% (75) | 59% (5) |
3-Point Share | 37.2% | |
FT Percent | 73% | |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 21 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 14 | 14 |
Arizona is on OK 3-point shooting team, but they do their real damage inside the arc. They want to get to the rim early and often. They also want to get it inside to their bigs, who are very effective around the basket. We are good at defending the 2, but hardly great. And our bigs have been foul prone.
There are two keys to our defending them: 1) We have to get back on defense. 2) Riley and Johnson have to stay out of foul trouble. Both are easier said than done.
We would definitely prefer they try to beat us from the outside, where they are less effective, and they might cooperate. Given how effective they are inside, they tend to shoot too many 3's. Hoist it up, Wildcats.
OTHER FACTORS
Arizona | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 9.0 | 5.2 |
Offensive Rebound % | 35.9% | 33.3% |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 66% | 51% |
Blocks | 6.7 | 4.0 |
Nothing in this section favors the Bruins. They are better at crashing the boards, and they have great shot blockers.
Their PG play is almost as good as ours. Tyger's A/TO ratio is 3.6, and Kriisa's is 2.5 and Terry's is 3.1. Their team average is so high because Kim Aiken is 4.7, but he hasn't played since early December. Also, when you are constantly and effectively fast-breaking you can get a lot of easy assists.
The PG matchup will come down to the health of Tyger's thumb.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
This preview is brought to you by the letter "K".
Arizona leads the nations in K's on the roster: Koloko, Kerr Kriisa, Kier, and even Kim Aiken and Ben Ackerley. If it weren't for Jaylen Clark, the Bruins would be K-less.
The Wildcats go 8 deep. Tubelis didn't play in their last game. If he doesn't go, they will be 7 deep.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | 3-Pt Attempts Per Minute | Rebounds | Assists | |
Bennedict Mathurin G | So | 17 | 31 | 18 | 49% | 39% | .19 | 4 | 2 |
Azuolas Tubelis F | So | 16 | 25 | 15 | 57% | 21% | .06 | 6 | 3 |
Christian Koloko C | Jr | 17 | 24 | 13 | 64% | 0% | 7 | 1 | |
Kerr Kriisa G | So | 17 | 30 | 12 | 40% | 36% | .25 | 3 | 5 |
Justin Kier G | Sr | 17 | 21 | 8 | 44% | 35% | .16 | 3 | 2 |
Oumar Ballo C | Jr | 17 | 14 | 7 | 63% | 0% | 4 | 1 | |
Dalen Terry G | So | 17 | 26 | 7 | 46% | 27% | .07 | 5 | 4 |
Pelle Larsson G | So | 17 | 20 | 6 | 46% | 33% | .17 | 3 | 2 |
For the most part, the right guys are shooting 3's for them. Other than Terry, their guards are good, but not great outside shooters. Clearly we would rather have them shooting 3's than having Koloko, Ballo, and Tubelis (if he plays) shooting in the lane.
Everyone has anointed Mathurin as the best player in the league, and he is projected as a lottery pick. He leads the team in scoring, but his numbers don't jump off the page.
Tubelis is a terrific college player and he will play pro ball somewhere. He does everything really well, except shoot the 3, but he can make it.
Koloko has been the big surprise to me. I thought he had to potential to be a very good center, but not this big.
Kerr Kriisa and Dalen Terry make a formidable PG combo. Kriisa isn't that good inside the arc and Terry isn't that good outside.
Ballo has been an afterthought for most of the season, but in their last two games, he has scored in double digits, shooting 11 of 13 from the field and 13 of 16 from the line. I am not sure how much of a break we catch if Tubelis doesn't play.
Pelle Larsson is a good player who would start for a lot of teams. For some reason, he has not signed an NIL deal with Pelle Windows.
CONCLUSION
Any way you slice it, Arizona looks like a better team than we are. If we seemed to be playing our best, I might be more optimistic. However, Tyger and Cody and Jules don't seem to be 100%.
However, there were at least 3 games in the NCAA tournament last year where we were outmatched on paper. ESPN gave us a 27% chance against Alabama, 20% against Michigan, and 10% against Gonzaga, all on a neutral court. The computers give us more than a puncher's chance in this game, and so do I. (Not that my opinion counts for much.)
I am also not ready to declare Tommy Lloyd the next coming. He inherited his starting roster from Sean Miller. He has definitely gotten them to play better team ball than Sean did, but I am not sure he can manage in-game adjustments as well as Mick.
Their games against really good teams have been close, and we are a really good team. I expect a nail-biter.