Post by mhbruin on Jan 21, 2022 19:01:39 GMT -8
Well we dodged that bullet. Before that game, I wrote:
"If you are looking for a trap game look no further. We are playing the last-place team in the league. We are on the road and at altitude. Next up are two difficult games, a road trip to 4th place Colorado, and then #3 Arizona. It would be easy to overlook the Utes. This should be an easy win. I hate games like this. It's totally lose-lose. "
BUT, I didn't exactly predict we would play that poorly on offense.
We are doing this road trip in the right order. We play our first game at altitude against the weaker team, Utah. That gives us more time to get accustomed to the thin air before playing the Buffaloes.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -5.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 78% of the time.
The computers all think we are the better team. We have played a significantly tougher schedule than the Buffs.
All the computers think Colorado State is better than Colorado.
COLORADO'S RECORD
Their best home win is over Washington State. Their two home losses are to Tennessee and SC, by 3.
Their bad loss is to Illinois State, #143 in the NET.
At the beginning of December, we beat them by 12 in Pauley.
As usual Colorado has played much better at home. They are 1-2 on the road.
The Bruins have started the season 4-0 on the road for the first time since the 2007-2008 season. That year Kevin Love led us to our third straight Final Four.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS COLORADO'S DEFENSE
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Colorado has a decent defense. They hold teams to very good shooting percentages. They are better at defending the lane than defending the arc. We are a good 3-point shooting team.
Overall, this matchup should favor the Bruins.
They play slower than we do, but our tempo has been slowing down as the season progresses.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS COLORADO'S OFFENSE
UCLA defends the 2 better than we defend the 3. Fortunately, Colorado doesn't shoot a ton of 3's and doesn't shoot them particularly well.
Overall, our defense is very good. Their offense is OK. Again, this matchup should favor us.
OTHER FACTORS
For a change we have a team that should match us on the boards. We are better on the offensive boards.
Our team A/TO ratio is better. Barthlelemy, their PG is at 2.0, but we have four players at least that good, and Tyger is at 3.8, even after a terrible night in Salt Lake City.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Tad Boyle has always played a lot of guys and this season is no exception. He will play 8-10 guys. In spite of 6 guys transferring out and McKinley Wright graduating, he still returns 6 rotation players, 5 of who typically start.
They are led by a strong front line of Walker, Battey, and da Silva. If they have a weakness, it is the guards.
They are young, with two seniors, five sophomores, and two freshmen making up the rotation. Parquet didn't play against USC. If he is out, they are even younger.
They have had a lot of roster stability with only 2 players missing a single game all season.
One of the reasons they don't shoot 3's that well, is the wrong guys are shooting them. Their most prolific shooters are not their best shooter. (I'm looking at you, Jabari Walker.) Meanwhile their two best shooters are the least frequent 3-point shooters. At least Parquet knows which side his bread is buttered on and doesn't hoist a lot of deep shots.
Walker leads them in scoring, rebound, and steals. He is a great athlete and rebounder, but probably shoots a bit too much. He also leads the team in turnovers.
Meanwhile Battey is their best shooter and 3-point shooter. He should probably take all their shots, but he doesn't shoot that much. This may seem like his 8th season in Boulder, but it is only his 4th.
Barthelemy is their only true PG, and he is a good one. He's no Tyger Campbell, but he does a nice job of running the team.
Tristan da Silva is not related to Roman Silva (Oregon St) or Isa Silva (Stanford), but he is the younger brother of Oscar da Silva, formerly of Stanford. He has a similar game. At times he shows his youth, but at other times, he looks like he will be just as good as his older brother before he is done.
As mentioned Parquet didn't play against SC, and I don't know if he will play Saturday. If he is out, they will lose their best defender, who would probably spend the game harassing Juzang. Juzang was only 6 of 15 that last time we played Colorado.
KJ (don't call him OJ) Simpson is a promising freshman, who hasn't quite found his shooting touch yet.
Clifford is another of those guards who is an excellent rebounder.
Luke O'Brien always makes me think of country singer Luke Bryan. O'Brien is a very good outside shooter.
Lovering is their only true center. For a guy who plays near the basket, you would expect him to shoot better than 29%.
CONCLUSION
Colorado is a good team, particularly at home. The very easily could have beaten SC on Thursday. However, they are not a great team.
We are not as bad as we looked against Utah. Tyger had his worst game of the year. I don't expect a repeat. I expect Jaimie to be more fully recovered.
The computers and oddsmakers expect us to win. So do I, even if it won't be easy.
"If you are looking for a trap game look no further. We are playing the last-place team in the league. We are on the road and at altitude. Next up are two difficult games, a road trip to 4th place Colorado, and then #3 Arizona. It would be easy to overlook the Utes. This should be an easy win. I hate games like this. It's totally lose-lose. "
BUT, I didn't exactly predict we would play that poorly on offense.
We are doing this road trip in the right order. We play our first game at altitude against the weaker team, Utah. That gives us more time to get accustomed to the thin air before playing the Buffaloes.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -5.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 78% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 72% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 74-70.
Colorado | UCLA | |
NET | 88 | 20 |
KenPom Rank | 81 | 13 |
Sagarin Rank | 58 | 13 |
Torvick Rank | 93 | 15 |
SOS | 116 | 62 |
Record | 12-5 | 12-2 |
The computers all think we are the better team. We have played a significantly tougher schedule than the Buffs.
All the computers think Colorado State is better than Colorado.
COLORADO'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-1 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
Colorado | 0-4 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 6-0 |
Their best home win is over Washington State. Their two home losses are to Tennessee and SC, by 3.
Their bad loss is to Illinois State, #143 in the NET.
At the beginning of December, we beat them by 12 in Pauley.
UCLA Road | 4-0 |
Colorado Home | 9-2 |
As usual Colorado has played much better at home. They are 1-2 on the road.
The Bruins have started the season 4-0 on the road for the first time since the 2007-2008 season. That year Kevin Love led us to our third straight Final Four.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS COLORADO'S DEFENSE
Colorado Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 56 | 18 |
Torvick Rank | 58 | 18 |
Points per game (allowed / scored | 65.8 | 79.4 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 209 | 158 |
FG Percent | 41% | 46% |
3-Pt Percent | 32% (103) | 36% (63) |
2-Pt Percent | 47% (56) | 51% (142) |
FT Percent | 71% | |
3-Point Share (rank) | 33.9% (267) | |
Assists Per Game | 13 | 15 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 12.5 | 9.7 |
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Colorado has a decent defense. They hold teams to very good shooting percentages. They are better at defending the lane than defending the arc. We are a good 3-point shooting team.
Overall, this matchup should favor the Bruins.
They play slower than we do, but our tempo has been slowing down as the season progresses.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS COLORADO'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Colorado Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 19 | 117 |
Torvick Rank | 27 | 158 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 71 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 158 | 209 |
FG Percent | 42% | 44% |
3-Pt Percent | 33% (177) | 33% (202) |
2-Pt Percent | 47% (66) | 49% (203) |
3-Point Share | 31% (316) | |
FT Percent | 72% | |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 13 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 13 | 13 |
UCLA defends the 2 better than we defend the 3. Fortunately, Colorado doesn't shoot a ton of 3's and doesn't shoot them particularly well.
Overall, our defense is very good. Their offense is OK. Again, this matchup should favor us.
OTHER FACTORS
Colorado | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 6.5 | 6.3 |
Offensive Rebound % | 29.8% | 33.5% |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 52% | 52% |
Blocks | 3.5 | 4.1 |
For a change we have a team that should match us on the boards. We are better on the offensive boards.
Our team A/TO ratio is better. Barthlelemy, their PG is at 2.0, but we have four players at least that good, and Tyger is at 3.8, even after a terrible night in Salt Lake City.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Tad Boyle has always played a lot of guys and this season is no exception. He will play 8-10 guys. In spite of 6 guys transferring out and McKinley Wright graduating, he still returns 6 rotation players, 5 of who typically start.
They are led by a strong front line of Walker, Battey, and da Silva. If they have a weakness, it is the guards.
They are young, with two seniors, five sophomores, and two freshmen making up the rotation. Parquet didn't play against USC. If he is out, they are even younger.
They have had a lot of roster stability with only 2 players missing a single game all season.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | 3-Pt Attempts Per Minute | Rebounds | Assists | |
Jabari Walker F | So | 17 | 26 | 13 | 45% | 26% | .11 | 8 | 1 |
Evan Battey F | Sr | 17 | 26 | 12 | 52% | 43% | .06 | 5 | 1 |
Keeshawn Barthelemy G | So | 17 | 27 | 11 | 40% | 32% | .13 | 3 | 3 |
Tristan da Silva F | So | 17 | 28 | 9 | 43% | 36% | .09 | 3 | 2 |
Elijah Parquet G | Sr | 16 | 30 | 7 | 46% | 19% | .06 | 2 | 1 |
KJ Simpson G | Fr | 16 | 20 | 7 | 40% | 30% | .09 | 2 | 2 |
Nique Clifford G | So | 17 | 21 | 6 | 45% | 32% | .09 | 5 | 1 |
Luke O'Brien G | So | 17 | 10 | 2 | 52% | 44% | .05 | 2 | 1 |
Lawson Lovering C | Fr | 17 | 11 | 2 | 29% | 0% | 2 | 1 |
One of the reasons they don't shoot 3's that well, is the wrong guys are shooting them. Their most prolific shooters are not their best shooter. (I'm looking at you, Jabari Walker.) Meanwhile their two best shooters are the least frequent 3-point shooters. At least Parquet knows which side his bread is buttered on and doesn't hoist a lot of deep shots.
Walker leads them in scoring, rebound, and steals. He is a great athlete and rebounder, but probably shoots a bit too much. He also leads the team in turnovers.
Meanwhile Battey is their best shooter and 3-point shooter. He should probably take all their shots, but he doesn't shoot that much. This may seem like his 8th season in Boulder, but it is only his 4th.
Barthelemy is their only true PG, and he is a good one. He's no Tyger Campbell, but he does a nice job of running the team.
Tristan da Silva is not related to Roman Silva (Oregon St) or Isa Silva (Stanford), but he is the younger brother of Oscar da Silva, formerly of Stanford. He has a similar game. At times he shows his youth, but at other times, he looks like he will be just as good as his older brother before he is done.
As mentioned Parquet didn't play against SC, and I don't know if he will play Saturday. If he is out, they will lose their best defender, who would probably spend the game harassing Juzang. Juzang was only 6 of 15 that last time we played Colorado.
KJ (don't call him OJ) Simpson is a promising freshman, who hasn't quite found his shooting touch yet.
Clifford is another of those guards who is an excellent rebounder.
Luke O'Brien always makes me think of country singer Luke Bryan. O'Brien is a very good outside shooter.
Lovering is their only true center. For a guy who plays near the basket, you would expect him to shoot better than 29%.
CONCLUSION
Colorado is a good team, particularly at home. The very easily could have beaten SC on Thursday. However, they are not a great team.
We are not as bad as we looked against Utah. Tyger had his worst game of the year. I don't expect a repeat. I expect Jaimie to be more fully recovered.
The computers and oddsmakers expect us to win. So do I, even if it won't be easy.