Post by mhbruin on Jan 11, 2022 11:49:27 GMT -8
Oregon is not a good team, but not as good as some other recent Oregon teams. They also present some unique challenges for the Bruins.
However, we present challenges for them, too.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD (Estimated UCLA -9)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 90% of the time.
OREGON'S RECORD
Oregon's best win is a home win over SMU who is #73 in the NET, and #70 in Kenpom.
Their worst loss is at home to Arizona State.
Oregon's road win is the long trip to Corvallis.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Overall, Oregon's defense is not as good as Cal's. UCLA's offense is still elite. We should score on them.
They generate a lot of turnovers. They will press and they like to pressure the ball. Their guards have quick hands and will go for the steal. We generally take good care of the ball. We will need to.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
Oregon has a potent offense. Our defense is slightly better, but this matchup is pretty even.
Oregon's players are very quick. They like to spread the floor and go one-on-one. They will penetrate to get to the rim or kick it out. Everyone except the centers are very good one-on-one players. Staying in front of them won't be easy.
We don't play very fast. Oregon plays a lower tempo than we do. BUT they do not play slowly. They will look for chances to get a fast break or early offense. They are not trying to run clock. They will just run their offense until they get a shot they like.
They are not a great FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
All of these factors favor the Bruins. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better.
They get most of their assists when they penetrate and kick..
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Oregon goes 9 deep, although Bittle will only make a brief appearance in most games. 4 of them are returning from last season, but injury plagued Dante only appeared in 6 games last season.
This is a talented roster, perhaps the most talented after UCLA, SC, and Arizona. Bittle and Dante were 5-star players and Richardson, Kepnang, Harmon, and Guerrier were 4-star players. However, this is not one of Altman's most talented roster.
7 of the 9 are juniors or seniors.
Talent, experience, and learning to play together. Sounds like a Dana Altman team.
Oregon spreads the scoring around, perhaps too much. Richardson and Williams are great 3-point shooters. You might want them to take most of the 3's. However, between them they only take 34% of the 3's. Meanwhile, bad shooters like Young, Guerrier, and Soares take 45% of the 3's. That's more than keeping the defense honest.
Will Richardson is their best player. He can score from anywhere on the floor, and with a wide range of shots. He is capable of carrying the team, but he doesn't seem to assert himself on offense in a lot of games. He leads the team in assist, but has only a 1.6 A/TO ratio.
That A/TO ratio is the best on the team. They don't have a real PG. OTOH, their offense doesn't really require one.
Harmon, Young, Guerrier, and Soares are similar types of players. They are quick athletic wings who are capable of breaking down the defense. Only Harmon qualifies as a good outside shooter.
Williams is a little taller and better rebounder. He is one of those players you might not notice, but who does everything well.
Dante is big, strong, and a decent athlete. He can score from anywhere on the floor, as long as he is within a few feet of the basket. He runs the floor very well.
Kepnang is a similar type of player to Dante, but doesn't do anything quite as well.
CONCLUSION
We are the better team, and we should be favored. Normally, I would look at the stats and conclude that this should be a fairly easy win.
Then I remember this is Oregon, and a get more anxious. Altman is a great coach.
Oregon is the best offensive team we have played other than Villanova, and we don't match up that well with their quickness. However, they should have an even harder time stopping us on offense and we should beat them on the board.
I think this will be a tougher game than Cal, but a Bruin win. Their defense just isn't good enough to match up with the top teams in the league.
However, we present challenges for them, too.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD (Estimated UCLA -9)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 90% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 89% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 80-68 .
The computers think we have a better chance of beating the Ducks at home than they give us over Cal on the road.
The computers think we have a better chance of beating the Ducks at home than they give us over Cal on the road.
Oregon | UCLA | |
NET | 90 | 20 |
KenPom Rank | 58 | 11 |
Sagarin Rank | 55 | 13 |
Torvick Rank | 81 | 10 |
SOS | 44 | 86 |
Record | 9-6 | 10-1 |
OREGON'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 |
Oregon | 0-4 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
Oregon's best win is a home win over SMU who is #73 in the NET, and #70 in Kenpom.
Their worst loss is at home to Arizona State.
UCLA Home | 6-0 |
Oregon Road | 1-1 |
Oregon's road win is the long trip to Corvallis.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 128 | 15 |
Torvick Rank | 158 | 15 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 83 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 312 | 123 |
FG Percent | 44% | 46% |
3-Pt Percent | 33% | 38% |
FT Percent | 69% | |
3-Point Share (rank) | 34% (261) | |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 16 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 14 | 10 |
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Overall, Oregon's defense is not as good as Cal's. UCLA's offense is still elite. We should score on them.
They generate a lot of turnovers. They will press and they like to pressure the ball. Their guards have quick hands and will go for the steal. We generally take good care of the ball. We will need to.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Oregon Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 17 | 31 |
Torvick Rank | 24 | 39 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 72 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 123 | 312 |
FG Percent | 42% | 47% |
3-Pt Percent | 32% | 35% |
3-Point Share | 35% (248) | |
FT Percent | 64% | |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 12 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 13 | 12 |
Oregon has a potent offense. Our defense is slightly better, but this matchup is pretty even.
Oregon's players are very quick. They like to spread the floor and go one-on-one. They will penetrate to get to the rim or kick it out. Everyone except the centers are very good one-on-one players. Staying in front of them won't be easy.
We don't play very fast. Oregon plays a lower tempo than we do. BUT they do not play slowly. They will look for chances to get a fast break or early offense. They are not trying to run clock. They will just run their offense until they get a shot they like.
They are not a great FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
Oregon | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 3 | 8 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 46% | 53% |
Blocks | 2.8 | 4.2 |
All of these factors favor the Bruins. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better.
They get most of their assists when they penetrate and kick..
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Oregon goes 9 deep, although Bittle will only make a brief appearance in most games. 4 of them are returning from last season, but injury plagued Dante only appeared in 6 games last season.
This is a talented roster, perhaps the most talented after UCLA, SC, and Arizona. Bittle and Dante were 5-star players and Richardson, Kepnang, Harmon, and Guerrier were 4-star players. However, this is not one of Altman's most talented roster.
7 of the 9 are juniors or seniors.
Talent, experience, and learning to play together. Sounds like a Dana Altman team.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | 3-Pt Attempts | Rebounds | Assists | |
Will Richardson | Sr | 15 | 33 | 13 | 46% | 44% | 70 | 3 | 4 |
De'Vion Harmon | Jr | 15 | 30 | 10 | 41% | 37% | 59 | 2 | 2 |
Jacob Young | Sr 5 | 15 | 28 | 11 | 44% | 29% | 42 | 3 | 2 |
Eric Williams Jr. | Sr | 13 | 28 | 9 | 42% | 44% | 34 | 6 | 2 |
Quincy Guerrier | Jr | 15 | 25 | 8 | 43% | 26% | 53 | 5 | 1 |
N'Faly Dante | Jr | 13 | 18 | 8 | 69% | 0% | 6 | 1 | |
Rivaldo Soares | Jr | 15 | 20 | 8 | 43% | 24% | 41 | 3 | 1 |
Franck Kepnang | So | 15 | 13 | 5 | 57% | 0% | 3 | 0 | |
Nate Bittle | Fr | 13 | 7 | 1 | 47% | 0% | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Oregon spreads the scoring around, perhaps too much. Richardson and Williams are great 3-point shooters. You might want them to take most of the 3's. However, between them they only take 34% of the 3's. Meanwhile, bad shooters like Young, Guerrier, and Soares take 45% of the 3's. That's more than keeping the defense honest.
Will Richardson is their best player. He can score from anywhere on the floor, and with a wide range of shots. He is capable of carrying the team, but he doesn't seem to assert himself on offense in a lot of games. He leads the team in assist, but has only a 1.6 A/TO ratio.
That A/TO ratio is the best on the team. They don't have a real PG. OTOH, their offense doesn't really require one.
Harmon, Young, Guerrier, and Soares are similar types of players. They are quick athletic wings who are capable of breaking down the defense. Only Harmon qualifies as a good outside shooter.
Williams is a little taller and better rebounder. He is one of those players you might not notice, but who does everything well.
Dante is big, strong, and a decent athlete. He can score from anywhere on the floor, as long as he is within a few feet of the basket. He runs the floor very well.
Kepnang is a similar type of player to Dante, but doesn't do anything quite as well.
CONCLUSION
We are the better team, and we should be favored. Normally, I would look at the stats and conclude that this should be a fairly easy win.
Then I remember this is Oregon, and a get more anxious. Altman is a great coach.
Oregon is the best offensive team we have played other than Villanova, and we don't match up that well with their quickness. However, they should have an even harder time stopping us on offense and we should beat them on the board.
I think this will be a tougher game than Cal, but a Bruin win. Their defense just isn't good enough to match up with the top teams in the league.