Post by mhbruin on Jan 7, 2022 18:14:50 GMT -8
California is not a bad team. They are not a really good team, but they are better than I expected, particularly after losing the best player from a bad team.
They will not be an easy win.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -9.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 78% of the time.
The computers think we are a better team. (We are a better team.)
We have played a comparable SOS, and we have a much better record.
CAL'S RECORD
Cal's best win is a home win over Fresno State. They have a bad loss at UNLV and a terrible loss to UC San Diego.
This will be a Quad 2 game for us.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS CAL'S DEFENSE
This part is pretty simple. UCLA has an elite offense. Cal has a good defense. Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
Cal does not have a very efficient offense. We are good to excellent on defense. This is also a solid advantage to UCLA.
They are a good 3-point shooting team. We need to defend the arc.
We don't play very fast. Cal plays SLOOOOOW. We should be comfortable with the pace, but we need to be prepared to play a full 30 seconds of defense.
OTHER FACTORS
All the other factors favor the Bruins. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better. We get more blocks.
Their assist percentage indicates that they rely on quite a bit of one-on-one play to get a shot, even though they use a lot of clock.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
California goes 9 deep. 8 of them are returning from last season. Their only new player is a 5th-year senior. He is transfer Jordan Shepherd, who leads the team in scoring and steals.
8 of the 9 are juniors or seniors. This is a veteran team, who have been playing together for a while.
California gets the bulk of their scoring from 3 players. They take over 61% of all of Cal's shots. And those 3 don't have a lot of assists.
Shepherd is the kind of player who is called "a scorer, not a shooter". That means he scores a lot because he shoots a lot. His shooting percentages are terrible.
Kelly may be their best player, and he does everything well. He is an excellent rebounder.
Anticevich, who has been at Cal since the 2008 season is also a good all-round player, but he is most dangerous from the outside.
If Kelly isn't their best player, Celestine might be. He is both a shooter and a scorer, but Fox like to bring him off the bench, maybe because the rest of the bench players aren't very good.
Joel Brown is the primary ball-handler, and he is a lot more focused on setting up his teammates than scoring. His A/TO ratio is 1.6, which is decent. He doesn't shoot that much, but he can hit the 3.
Thiemann is tall, but has no real skills. But you can't coach 7'1".
Kuany Kuany is on the Stutterer's Nightmare Team. He has been starting, but he isn't much of a scoring threat. He is one of their better athletes.
I mentioned that Brown's A/TO ratio is 1.6. Tyger's is 5.3. Bernard is 2.6. Singleton is 3.3.
CONCLUSION
California doesn't play a single player who was rated higher than a 3-star out of high school. Mark Fox has put together a decent team with a mid-major roster. They already have 2 Pac-12 wins, although they over ASU and Utah, who are both struggling (to put it kindly).
They are a veteran team. So are we.
Cal is dangerous. They just played SC a lot tougher than the final score indicates. We should win, but I don't think this will be an easy game.
The road is never easy, and we don't know Jaquez's status. Worry a little about this game.
Cal only won 3 conference games last year. They might get to 4 or 5 this season. I don't think any of those wins will be over UCLA, SC, or Arizona.
They will not be an easy win.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -9.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 78% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 76% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-68 .
| Cal | UCLA | |
| NET | 118 | 22 |
| KenPom Rank | 94 | 10 |
| Sagarin Rank | 117 | 14 |
| Torvick Rank | 102 | 12 |
| SOS | 139 | 133 |
| Record | 9-6 | 9-1 |
The computers think we are a better team. (We are a better team.)
We have played a comparable SOS, and we have a much better record.
CAL'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 |
| Cal | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 6-1 |
Cal's best win is a home win over Fresno State. They have a bad loss at UNLV and a terrible loss to UC San Diego.
This will be a Quad 2 game for us.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS CAL'S DEFENSE
Cal Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 49 | 15 |
| Torvick Rank | 72 | 13 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 63 | 83 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 314 | 120 |
| FG Percent | 40% | 46% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30% | 39% |
| FT Percent | 69% | |
| Assists Per Game | 9 | 17 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 10 | 10 |
This part is pretty simple. UCLA has an elite offense. Cal has a good defense. Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Cal Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 17 | 156 |
| Torvick Rank | 37 | 146 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 67 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 120 | 314 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 44% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 34% | 35% |
| FT Percent | 72% | |
| Assists Per Game | 12 | 11 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 13 | 11 |
Cal does not have a very efficient offense. We are good to excellent on defense. This is also a solid advantage to UCLA.
They are a good 3-point shooting team. We need to defend the arc.
We don't play very fast. Cal plays SLOOOOOW. We should be comfortable with the pace, but we need to be prepared to play a full 30 seconds of defense.
OTHER FACTORS
| Cal | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 4 | 9 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| Assist Percentage | 44% | 55% |
| Blocks | 2.6 | 4.1 |
| Steals | 4.8 | 5.8 |
All the other factors favor the Bruins. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better. We get more blocks.
Their assist percentage indicates that they rely on quite a bit of one-on-one play to get a shot, even though they use a lot of clock.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
California goes 9 deep. 8 of them are returning from last season. Their only new player is a 5th-year senior. He is transfer Jordan Shepherd, who leads the team in scoring and steals.
8 of the 9 are juniors or seniors. This is a veteran team, who have been playing together for a while.
| Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | |
| Jordan Shepherd | Sr | 15 | 33 | 15 | 38% | 29% | 3 | 3 |
| Andre Kelly | Sr | 15 | 31 | 15 | 60% | 50% | 9 | 1 |
| Grant Anticevich | Sr 5 | 15 | 33 | 13 | 43% | 39% | 8 | 1 |
| Jalen Celestine | So | 14 | 22 | 6 | 48% | 38% | 3 | 1 |
| Joel Brown | Jr | 15 | 31 | 6 | 43% | 35% | 4 | 4 |
| Makale Foreman | Sr 5 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 36% | 29% | 1 | 1 |
| Lars Thiemann | Jr | 15 | 9 | 3 | 49% | 0% | 2 | 0 |
| Kuany Kuany | Jr | 13 | 15 | 3 | 38% | 38% | 2 | 0 |
| Jarred Hyder | Jr | 14 | 8 | 1 | 21% | 20% | 1 | 1 |
California gets the bulk of their scoring from 3 players. They take over 61% of all of Cal's shots. And those 3 don't have a lot of assists.
Shepherd is the kind of player who is called "a scorer, not a shooter". That means he scores a lot because he shoots a lot. His shooting percentages are terrible.
Kelly may be their best player, and he does everything well. He is an excellent rebounder.
Anticevich, who has been at Cal since the 2008 season is also a good all-round player, but he is most dangerous from the outside.
If Kelly isn't their best player, Celestine might be. He is both a shooter and a scorer, but Fox like to bring him off the bench, maybe because the rest of the bench players aren't very good.
Joel Brown is the primary ball-handler, and he is a lot more focused on setting up his teammates than scoring. His A/TO ratio is 1.6, which is decent. He doesn't shoot that much, but he can hit the 3.
Thiemann is tall, but has no real skills. But you can't coach 7'1".
Kuany Kuany is on the Stutterer's Nightmare Team. He has been starting, but he isn't much of a scoring threat. He is one of their better athletes.
I mentioned that Brown's A/TO ratio is 1.6. Tyger's is 5.3. Bernard is 2.6. Singleton is 3.3.
CONCLUSION
California doesn't play a single player who was rated higher than a 3-star out of high school. Mark Fox has put together a decent team with a mid-major roster. They already have 2 Pac-12 wins, although they over ASU and Utah, who are both struggling (to put it kindly).
They are a veteran team. So are we.
Cal is dangerous. They just played SC a lot tougher than the final score indicates. We should win, but I don't think this will be an easy game.
The road is never easy, and we don't know Jaquez's status. Worry a little about this game.
Cal only won 3 conference games last year. They might get to 4 or 5 this season. I don't think any of those wins will be over UCLA, SC, or Arizona.