Post by mhbruin on Jan 3, 2022 14:57:47 GMT -8
Arizona State is almost an entirely new team. 9 players transferred out and Josh Christopher went to the NBA.
That leaves them with 4 returning players, if you count John Olmstead, who plays has played a total of 9 minutes all season.
Sound bad? Marcus Bagley, who may be there best player, has been out with an injury and has only played in 3 games.
If you are counting (and even if you are not) that leaves Bobby Hurley with 2 returning players. It's almost enough to make you feel sympathy for Bobby Hurley. Almost.
After all, Bobby Hurley may have something to do with the fact that virtually everyone wanted to leave.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 93% of the time.
ASU'S RECORD
ASU has a couple of good road wins at Creighton and at Oregon. They also have some bad losses to Riverside and Syracuse.
They lost to Washington State at home which isn't that terrible, but they scored 29 points. They had more turnover and more fouls than made field goals. They shot 3 of 26 from the arc and 21% from the field.
However, they played well against Baylor, and only lost to San Diego State by 2 and USF by 1. They can be dangerous.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ASU'S DEFENSE
This part is pretty simple. UCLA has an elite offense. ASU has a good defense. Advantage: UCLA.
Neither team plays at that fast a pace, so this shouldn't be a big factor.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
This one is simple, too. ASU's offense sucks! It's terrible! It's bad! It's awful. It's disgusting.
ASU doesn't shoot the 3 well. They don't shoot the 2 well. They are OK at free throws.
UCLA has a very good defense. This should be a total mismatch.
OTHER FACTORS
UCLA is VERY good on the boards. ASU is not. Another big advantage for the Bruins.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Arizona State goes 9 deep. In the Cal game, Gaffney was out, and Hurley went deep into his bench to play walk-on John Olmsted who is big, but not much else. I don't know if Gaffney will play on Wednesday.
Hurley filled his roster with transfers, Muhammad and Gaffney are from Ohio State, Heath is from Boston College, Horne is from Toledo, and Jackson is from Illinois State
Boakye and Neal are freshmen. Boakye is a 5-star center who was offered by UCLA, among others. He is the only scholarship center on the team. He is athletic, but VERY raw.
There is a reason they are getting out-rebounded.
Horne is their best scorer by a big margin and he is capable of scoring from anywhere else on the floor. Heath is the only other decent outside shooter, but he doesn't shoot that much. Maybe that's why his percentage is so high.
Meanwhile, the bad shooters like to shoot. Jackson, who is a poor outside shooter shoots over twice as threes as Heath. Muhammad shoots a lot more than Heath, and he is only making 17% of them.
Muhammad shot 3's well as a freshman at Ohio State, but his shooting has gotten worse every year since. That isn't how it is supposed to work.
Kimani Lawrence may be their best all-around player. He's not a great outside threat, but he is skilled around the basket.
They don't have a real point guard.
This roster is a mess. Ten of new players. Not enough talent. Not enough size. Not enough shooting. No point guard.
CONCLUSION
This game looks like a mismatch on paper. We are more experienced, more talented, better on offense, better on defense, better on the boards.
There is one factor that favors the Sun Devils: Rust. It will be 24 days between games for the Bruins.
Nonetheless. This looks like a blowout. We may not match Cal's 25 point margin, but 15 to 20 points seems about right.
That leaves them with 4 returning players, if you count John Olmstead, who plays has played a total of 9 minutes all season.
Sound bad? Marcus Bagley, who may be there best player, has been out with an injury and has only played in 3 games.
If you are counting (and even if you are not) that leaves Bobby Hurley with 2 returning players. It's almost enough to make you feel sympathy for Bobby Hurley. Almost.
After all, Bobby Hurley may have something to do with the fact that virtually everyone wanted to leave.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 93% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 95% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 79-61 .
ASU | UCLA | |
NET | 146 | 23 |
KenPom Rank | 117 | 10 |
Sagarin Rank | 107 | 13 |
Torvick Rank | 147 | 10 |
SOS | 15 | 89 |
Record | 5-8 | 8-1 |
ASU'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
ASU | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
ASU has a couple of good road wins at Creighton and at Oregon. They also have some bad losses to Riverside and Syracuse.
They lost to Washington State at home which isn't that terrible, but they scored 29 points. They had more turnover and more fouls than made field goals. They shot 3 of 26 from the arc and 21% from the field.
However, they played well against Baylor, and only lost to San Diego State by 2 and USF by 1. They can be dangerous.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ASU'S DEFENSE
ASU Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 61 | 14 |
Torvick Rank | 57 | 11 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 81 |
Points per Possession (allowed / scored) | 0.95 | 1.12 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 171 | 140 |
FG Percent | 41% | 45% |
3-Pt Percent | 34% | 39% |
3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 24 | 22 |
FT Percent | 67% | 71% |
FT Attempts Per Game | 17 | 17 |
Assists Per Game | 13 | 16 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 13 | 10 |
This part is pretty simple. UCLA has an elite offense. ASU has a good defense. Advantage: UCLA.
Neither team plays at that fast a pace, so this shouldn't be a big factor.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ASU'S OFFENSE
This one is simple, too. ASU's offense sucks! It's terrible! It's bad! It's awful. It's disgusting.
UCLA Defense | ASU Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 18 | 199 |
Torvick Rank | 31 | 272 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 63 |
Points per Possession (allowed / scored) | .90 | 0.89 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 140 | 171 |
FG Percent | 42% | 39% |
3-Pt Percent | 32% | 28% |
3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 22 | 22 |
FT Percent | 70% | 69% |
FT Attempts Per Game | 15 | 18 |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 12 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 13 | 12 |
ASU doesn't shoot the 3 well. They don't shoot the 2 well. They are OK at free throws.
UCLA has a very good defense. This should be a total mismatch.
OTHER FACTORS
ASU | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | -2.5 | 10 |
Offensive Rebounds | 11 | 13 |
Defensive Rebounds | 26 | 27 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 51% | 53% |
Blocks | 4.5 | 4.1 |
UCLA is VERY good on the boards. ASU is not. Another big advantage for the Bruins.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Arizona State goes 9 deep. In the Cal game, Gaffney was out, and Hurley went deep into his bench to play walk-on John Olmsted who is big, but not much else. I don't know if Gaffney will play on Wednesday.
Hurley filled his roster with transfers, Muhammad and Gaffney are from Ohio State, Heath is from Boston College, Horne is from Toledo, and Jackson is from Illinois State
Boakye and Neal are freshmen. Boakye is a 5-star center who was offered by UCLA, among others. He is the only scholarship center on the team. He is athletic, but VERY raw.
There is a reason they are getting out-rebounded.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | |
D. J. Horne | So | 13 | 31 | 13 | 46% | 41% | 3 | 1.5 |
Kimani Lawrence | Sr | 13 | 30 | 11 | 53% | 0% | 8 | 1.8 |
Jay Heath | So | 11 | 26 | 10 | 35% | 39% | 4 | 1.1 |
Marreon Jackson | Sr | 13 | 28 | 8 | 26% | 20% | 4 | 1.1 |
Luther Muhammad | Jr | 12 | 22 | 6 | 30% | 17% | 2 | 1.3 |
Jalen Graham | Jr | 11 | 18 | 5 | 42% | 0% | 3 | 0.5 |
Alonzo Gaffney | Jr | 12 | 22 | 5 | 40% | 25% | 4 | 1.0 |
Enoch Boakye | Fr | 13 | 13 | 3 | 61% | 0% | 4 | 0.2 |
Jamiya Neal | Fr | 13 | 16 | 3 | 26% | 23% | 2 | 1.1 |
Horne is their best scorer by a big margin and he is capable of scoring from anywhere else on the floor. Heath is the only other decent outside shooter, but he doesn't shoot that much. Maybe that's why his percentage is so high.
Meanwhile, the bad shooters like to shoot. Jackson, who is a poor outside shooter shoots over twice as threes as Heath. Muhammad shoots a lot more than Heath, and he is only making 17% of them.
Muhammad shot 3's well as a freshman at Ohio State, but his shooting has gotten worse every year since. That isn't how it is supposed to work.
Kimani Lawrence may be their best all-around player. He's not a great outside threat, but he is skilled around the basket.
They don't have a real point guard.
This roster is a mess. Ten of new players. Not enough talent. Not enough size. Not enough shooting. No point guard.
CONCLUSION
This game looks like a mismatch on paper. We are more experienced, more talented, better on offense, better on defense, better on the boards.
There is one factor that favors the Sun Devils: Rust. It will be 24 days between games for the Bruins.
Nonetheless. This looks like a blowout. We may not match Cal's 25 point margin, but 15 to 20 points seems about right.