Post by mhbruin on Dec 23, 2021 9:18:07 GMT -8
US Vaccine Data - We Have Now Administered 500 Million Shots (Population 333 Million)
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Cases and Deaths are Definitely Climbing, But the Deaths Are Delta, Not Omicron
People infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus may be at lower risk of severe illness and hospitalization compared to those infected with the Delta strain, early studies from the United Kingdom and South Africa suggest. Scientists warn, however, that the picture could change as more people become ill with the highly transmissible new variant, and that health systems could still be overwhelmed.
Two separate British studies, looking at real-world data from England and Scotland, have backed up evidence from South Africa to point to less severity with Omicron cases, however. In England, they analyzed hospital records and vaccination data from the start of December, including 56,000 cases of Omicron and 269,000 cases of Delta. They found that the rate of hospitalization with Omicron was 20% to 25% lower than with the Delta infections, and that the rate of people staying in the hospital for at least one night with Omicron was was around 40% to 45% lower.
In Scotland, scientists scrutinized data from November 1 to December 19. In their pre-print paper, they said "early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization when compared to Delta."
Although Hospitalizations Are High in Certain States, Nationally They Don't Seem to Be Climbing
CDC Hospitalization Graph
The Media, In Headlines Like This, Only Show Part of the Picture
"In highly vaccinated New England, hospitals are under unprecedented strain as coronavirus surges"
The UK Seems to Be a Leading Indicator Of What Will Happen in the US
Looking at daily death rates in the U.K. from May 15 — essentially from the point at which the Delta wave began — to Sept. 15, there is a highly statistically significant relationship between daily new cases and deaths. In short, case rates accurately predict death rates.
But beginning the analysis on Sept. 15, coinciding with flattening of the Delta curve and the onset of Omicron, shows no statistical relationship between Covid-19 case rates and deaths.
In earlier waves, rising death rates would follow an increase in cases; the impact of rising cases on death rates could be seen visually and validated statistically. Deaths would follow cases upward, and peak roughly two to three weeks after new cases began trending downward. With Omicron, however, we not only don’t see the rise in death rates that were associated with the first waves, but we actually see a continuing decline in death rates, despite a radical increase in cases.
Whether or not this breakdown of the relationship between Omicron cases and deaths will play out in other countries, like the U.S., is hard to say. Omicron is currently more prevalent in the U.K. than in the U.S., and the U.K. has far better screening rates, both of which could alter the outcome in the U.S.
Is South Africa a Leading Indicator?
South Africa’s huge omicron wave appears to be easing.
In less than a month, the country’s outbreak has gone from a near-vertical rise to a similar fall.
Why? The quick peaking could be due to the population having a stronger antibody response: More than 70% of South Africans have been infected by previous variants.
Then Again, Maybe We Need to Scare More People
Despite the nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases, more than 110 million Americans are hitting the roads and crowding airports at near pre-pandemic levels, according to AAA. Last year, only about 80 million traveled for the holidays.
"We're 27% ahead of where we were last year," said Robert Sinclair, a senior manager of public affairs at AAA Northeast. "Without a doubt, people have more confidence with the vaccines and the boosters."
Six million will fly, many of them skittish and packing their Omicron trepidation with their toiletries.
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Today We Are Inflating Like It's 1982
Prices remain high in America, and inflation shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon.
A key measure of US inflation rose 5.7% in the 12 months ended in November, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. It was the fastest increase in the consumer spending price index since July 1982.
Stripping out energy and food prices, both of which jumped over the period, the price index advanced 4.7%, the biggest increase since September 1983.
For anyone hoping there would be an end to the exorbitant climb in prices before year-end, this was a disappointment. But it could be the peak.
"We suspect that the November and December headline figures will mark the top given a modest energy price pull-back into the turn of the year," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, in a note to clients.
And indeed, prices rose at a slightly slower pace in November -- 0.6% compared with the 0.7% gain in October. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, prices rose 0.5%, unchanged from the prior month.
Englund expects the so-called core price index to reach a peak in February, "given 2020 comparisons that show a big core price acceleration starting last March."
American incomes also rose last month, but not as quickly as prices.
Total incomes rose by 0.4%, or $90.4 billion, slightly less than in October, while disposable incomes also increased by 0.4% last month, corresponding to $70.4 billion.
But consumer spending outgrew both income measures, rising 0.6%, or $104.7 billion as people were getting busy shopping for the holidays.
Ready For the Biden Boom?
Heading into the new year, the economy looks in better shape than Biden’s legislative agenda. The Wall Street Journal reports: “A booming U.S. economy is rippling around the world, leaving global supply chains struggling to keep up and pushing up prices. The force of the American expansion is also inducing overseas companies to invest in the U.S., betting that the growth is still accelerating and will outpace other major economies.”
With a projected 7 percent annualized growth rate for the fourth quarter, the United States is running circles around Europe and China. That relative strength against the rest of the world, reflected in a strong dollar that lowers the cost of imports for U.S. consumers, matters greatly.
The economy grew 2.3 percent in the third quarter (higher than the expected 2.1 percent). Moreover, for all the talk of inflation and the pandemic, consumer confidence is through the roof. ABC News reports: “The Conference Board, a business research group, said Wednesday that its consumer confidence index — which takes into account consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their outlook for the future — rose to 115.8 in December, the highest reading since July.”
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Do You Want a 70% Chance of Going to the Hospital or an 11% Chance?
The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday authorized Merck’s antiviral pill to treat Covid-19 for emergency use, adding another tool in the nation's arsenal to combat the virus.
The FDA's move comes a day after it authorized another antiviral drug, from Pfizer. Merck's treatment, known as molnupiravir and developed in partnership with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, is cleared for use in adults with mild to moderate Covid who are at risk for severe disease, the agency said in a statement. Pfizer's pill was authorized for people as young as 12.
The use of molnupiravir will be limited to situations where other authorized treatments are inaccessible or not "clinically appropriate," Dr. Patrizia Cavazzoni, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in a statement.
“As new variants of the virus continue to emerge, it is crucial to expand the country’s arsenal of Covid-19 therapies using emergency use authorization, while continuing to generate additional data on their safety and effectiveness," she said.
The big advantage of oral treatments, like Merck’s and Pfizer’s, is that they can be taken at home, and don’t require an IV or injection. That could help the nation's hospitals as new infections are expected to continue to surge this winter.
Clinical trials found that the treatment reduced the risk of hospitalization and death among high-risk Covid patients by 30 percent.
By comparison, Pfizer’s drug has been shown to be 89 percent effective at preventing high-risk people from being hospitalized or dying from Covid.
Why Would Anyone Want the Merck Pill?
Availability of Pfizer's treatment will initially be much more limited than Merck's. That may pose a dilemma for physicians over which treatment option to recommend to their patients.
Is It True That to Get a Pill You Have to Be Able To Pronounce "molnupiravir"?
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An Ounce Of Prevention Is Worth Billions of Dollars of Cure
Preventing pandemics is much cheaper than fighting them once they happen.
The White House, to its credit, understands that preventing the next pandemic requires a large-scale investment. That’s why in September, White House science adviser Eric Lander and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan put out a report calling for $65.3 billion in spending on pandemic preparedness, spread over 10 years.
The proposal included, among other things, $24.2 billion in spending on vaccine preparedness (for instance, improving manufacturing capacity and developing candidate vaccines for common types of viruses), $11.8 billion to prepare antiviral and other therapies against likely pandemic pathogens, and $5 billion on research and manufacturing for testing, as well as funding for personal protective equipment (PPE) and improving building design (for instance through better ventilation). It’s worth reviewing the spending plan in full just to get a sense of how sprawling and comprehensive it is.
Trying To Make Joe Happy Is Very Trying. And Dumb!
But the administration did not put forward the full $65.3 billion in the reconciliation spending package. Initially, it proposed $30 billion in spending in its “American Jobs Plan,” unveiled in late March, which provided the basis for spending negotiations with Congress after the passage of emergency economic stimulus.
Then, upon the announcement of the $65.3 billion pandemic prevention plan, Lander told reporters that the administration wanted at least $15 billion of it funded through reconciliation, much less than either $65.3 billion or $30 billion.
The version passed by the House included even less: $3 billion for pandemic preparedness, split between $1.4 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to do everything from improving testing to laboratory upgrades to genomic sequencing of new pathogens; $1.3 billion for the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Activities (ASPR) at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), to be spent on both manufacturing and research of countermeasures; and $300 million for the Food and Drug Administration to improve its technology and lab infrastructure.
Exhibit A Of Why We Need To Prepare
The World Health Organization is investigating a mysterious illness in South Sudan that has killed dozens of people.
So far, 97 people have died of the unknown disease in Fangak, Jonglei State, in the northern part of the country.
The symptoms of the mysterious illness include cough, diarrhea, fever, headache, chest pain, joint pain, loss of appetite and body weakness, officials said.
According to BBC News, because the area has recently been hit with heavy floods, the WHO tested samples from patients for cholera, which is typically contracted from infected water supplies.
However, the samples returned negative for the infectious bacterial disease, the outlet reported.
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The Previous Guy is a Little Slow. It Only Took Him 13 Months to Figure It Out.
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How Long Before The Right-Wing Media Reveals There is a War on Cats?
Shipping woes, other distribution issues and a shortage of the aluminum used for packaging has led to a shortfall of cat and dog food, especially canned wet food.
Clancy said she’s seeing the biggest impact of the shortage with cat food and brands that tend to be the most cost effective. This could force more families to turn to her organization, which distributes pet food through human food pantries.
Canned dog food is in short supply, though not as severe as the cat food shortage; usually, dog owners have a pet that will eat anything.
Is There a War on Beer?
The holidays tend to make Americans very, very thirsty. And that’s a problem this year, with supply chain snarls hitting the beverage industry — from soda to energy drinks, booze to beer — especially hard. Things could get even tougher in the next couple months.
While typical grocery categories are experiencing 5 to 10 percent of products out of stock right now, beverage shortages are higher, with around 13 percent missing from shelves. Shortages have been showing up in waters, iced teas and soft drinks, as well as beer, hard seltzer and canned cocktails.
A shortage of bottles and cans is responsible for much of it, but trucking and shipping snarls, missing ingredients, labor woes and even freak weather are all contributing to shortages, leaving grocers scrambling to fill in the gaps. It’s just the latest example of ongoing food supply problems that have shown up in a variety of sectors, wreaking havoc on prices and contributing to the highest inflation in three decades.
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Will There Be a War on Texans?
The Texas electric grid could suffer a massive shortfall in generating capacity in a winter deep freeze, potentially triggering outages similar to those in February, according to a report on Thursday by an electric reliability authority.
The assessment by the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC), a nonprofit regulatory authority, comes as Texas lawmakers and regulators continue to investigate ways to bolster the grid to avert a repeat of last winter's blackouts, which left 4.5 million customers without power in a deep freeze that killed more than 200 people
Maybe Ab-Butt's Wall Can Keep Out the Cold
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Is There a War on Texas Kids?
According to the Dallas Morning News, Texas schools have access to an $800 million federal grant to help stop the spread of COVID-19. But education leaders aren't spending much of it.
As of December 7th, state data reports:
About 300 of 1000 Texas public school districts have spent $3.6 million (less than 1% of the available funding).
Private schools have spent $128,000 in testing children.
Also, more than 5 million COVID-19 rapid tests were distributed but as of Nov. 28, only about 1.7 million tests were reported as used, according to the Texas Department of Emergency Management. In other words, about 34% of the tests have been utilized.
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Maybe He Can Get Elected President of Cancun
Or Is It "El Presidente"?
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Losers Gotta' Lose
An attempt in court by former President Donald Trump’s onetime national security adviser Michael Flynn, to block Jan. 6 investigators from obtaining his phone records and testimony, has failed—for now.
U.S. District Judge Mary Scriven issued the ruling against Flynn from Tampa, Florida, on Wednesday. The hammer dropped on Flynn quickly; the former White House official and reported QAnon adherent only filed his lawsuit against the Jan. 6 Committee on Dec. 21.
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What About Your Loan Payments?
Student loan payments will stay paused until May.
The suspension, which started in March 2020, was supposed to lift in a little over a month.
Why was it extended? President Biden said it was necessary to help people economically impacted by the pandemic. He had been facing pressure from activists.
The move will help 41 million borrowers save $5 billion per month.
Student Loan Holders Are Not the Only Ones Impacted
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Is There A War on Democratic Congresswomen?
Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon was carjacked at gunpoint in broad daylight Wednesday afternoon in south Philadelphia's largest park following a business meeting.
The congresswoman was left unharmed, according to a statement provided to ABC News by her spokesperson, Lauren Cox.
Five suspects were taken into custody in Newark, Delaware, at about 9 p.m., when they were found inside Scanlon's Acura MDX in a parking lot, Delaware State Police said. Their names were not released.
Apparently Rep. Scanlon is not the only Democratic lawmaker who has been carjacked in the last few days—Illinois State Rep. Kimberly Lightford was attacked Tuesday night as well.
At this time, the available evidence, however, seems to point to both of these incidents being “just” plain robberies—not politically motivated in any way.
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This Is A Real Attack on Our Young People
There is an explosion of drug-related deaths among US high school and college-aged youth, fueled by what experts say is a flood of fentanyl-filled counterfeit pills being sold on social media and sometimes delivered straight to kids’ homes.
National statistics show a huge surge in drug-related deaths during the pandemic, with fatalities leaping to more than 93,000 in 2020, a 32% rise from 2019. But no group has seen a faster rise than youth under 24, according to a Guardian analysis of 2020 federal data. Among this age group, accidental drug deaths increased by 50% in a single year – taking 7,337 young lives in 2020. Experts say a large portion of this increase is due to the vast quantities of fentanyl streaming into the US.
In California, where fentanyl deaths were rare just five years ago, a young person under 24 is now dying every 12 hours, according to a Guardian analysis of state data through June 2021. That’s a 1,000% increase over 2018
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Tell Kids They Cannot Do Something and Guess What?
Moms and dads stormed into the Spotsylvania County town hall, in Virginia, in early November, hell-bent on purging all “objectionable” books from in the scholastic jurisdiction. Novels containing any commentary about race, sexuality and sexual content was put under the microscope, as a fresh reactionary panic takes aim at the stacks in high school libraries. “Results for gay, 172. Results for heterosexual, two,” said Christina Burris, one of the attending parents, who used the district’s literature search function to make her point. The board relented, voting 6-0 to enact a liquidation.
One of the books targeted by name was 33 Snowfish, an acclaimed 2003 novel concerning a trio of runaway teens and all sorts of sordid, Kids-ish behavior. The concerned parents of northern Virginia believed that heady themes of poverty, addiction and abuse have no place in the sanctums of learning, and therefore, the book needed to go.
When Paul Cymrot heard about the meeting, he tracked down as many copies of 33 Snowfish he could find. He soon discovered, ironically, that book was never really in the school library. 33 Snowfish is barely in print, and Cymrot tells me that it was an ebook version, lingering in some dusty corner of the school library servers, which sparked the initial animus.
The moral militancy immediately backfired, because Cymrot knows a good business opportunity when he sees one. He’s owned the Spotsylvania-area Riverby Books for 25 years, and possesses a shrewd nose for the ebbs and flows of the publishing market. One bookselling truth remains eternally undefeated, explains Cymrot. When a censorious zeitgeist swallows up a novel, a lot of people will want to buy it.
“It was not easy to find a box full of 33 Snowfish, but we did,” he continues. “We sold all that we bought, and we kept a couple as loaners because we wanted to make sure any students in the community could see what the fuss was about. There will always be some around.”
It’s now easier than ever to read 33 Snowfish in Spotsylvania county, subverting the rightwing siege on the supposed woke conspiracy infecting school libraries.
Unless You Tell Them They Cannot Eat Vegetables.
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CDC doesn't do a good job of reporting around holidays.
Doses Administered 7-Day Average | Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses | Number of People 2 or More Doses | New Cases 7-Day Average | Deaths 7-Day Average | |
| Dec 23 | 1,189,954 | 241,520,561 | 204,740,321 | ||
| Dec 22 | 1,283,244 | 241,583,543 | 204,818,717 | 176,097 | 1,213 |
| Dec 21 | 1,542,936 | 241,132,288 | 204,578,725 | 161,261 | 1,223 |
| Dec 20 | 1,554,261 | 241,881,712 | 204,098,982 | 149,331 | 1,188 |
| Dec 19 | 1,558,720 | 241,571,084 | 203,926,479 | 132,659 | 1,169 |
| Dec 18 | 1,562,366 | 241,205,528 | 203,727,446 | 127,445 | 1,182 |
| Dec 17 | 2,065,555 | 240,775,382 | 203,479,206 | 125,775 | 1,182 |
| Dec 16 | 2,043,207 | 240,321,022 | 203,159,327 | 122,296 | 1,179 |
| Dec 15 | 1,795,384 | 239,975,167 | 202,748,005 | 119,546 | 1,187 |
| Dec 14 | 1,904,464 | 239,553,956 | 202,504,037 | 117,950 | 1,143 |
| Dec 13 | 1,951,329 | 239,274,656 | 202,246,698 | 117,890 | 1,147 |
| Dec 12 | 1,984,721 | 239,008,166 | 201,975,235 | 116,742 | 1,131 |
| Dec 11 | 2,020,853 | 238,679,707 | 201,688,550 | 116,893 | 1,131 |
| Dec 10 | 1,721,570 | 238,143,066 | 201,279,582 | 118,575 | 1,146 |
| Dec 9 | 1,583,662 | 237,468,725 | 200,717,387 | 118,052 | 1,089 |
| Dec 8 | 1,611,831 | 237,087,380 | 200,400,533 | 118,515 | 1,092 |
| Dec 7 | 1,781,389 | 236,363,835 | 199,687,439 | 117,488 | 1,097 |
| Dec 6 | 1,780,807 | 236,018,871 | 199,313,022 | 117,179 | 1,117 |
| Dec 5 | 2,264,301 | 235,698,738 | 198,962,520 | 103,823 | 1,154 |
| Dec 4 | 2,009,864 | 235,297,964 | 198,592,167 | 105,554 | 1,150 |
| Dec 3 | 1,700,056 | 234,743,864 | 198,211,641 | 106,132 | 1,110 |
| Dec 2 | 1,428,263 | 234,269,053 | 197,838,728 | 96,425 | 975 |
| Dec 1 | 1,116,587 | 233,590,555 | 197,363,116 | 86,412 | 859 |
| Nov 30 | 1,152,647 | 233,207,582 | 197,058,988 | 82,846 | 816 |
| Nov 29 | 937,113 | 232,792,508 | 196,806,194 | 80,178 | 804 |
| Nov 28 | No Data | 72,008 | 719 | ||
| Nov 27 | No Data | 72,139 | 721 | ||
| Nov 26 | No Data | 73,962 | 742 | ||
| Nov 25 | No Data | 82,440 | 887 | ||
| Nov 24 | 898,833 | 231,367,686 | 196,168,756 | 93,931 | 989 |
| Nov 23 | 1,126,545 | 230,669,289 | 195,973,992 | 94,266 | 982 |
| Nov 22 | 1,521,815 | 230,732,565 | 196,398,948 | 93,668 | 1,009 |
| Nov 21 | 1,774,196 | 230,298,744 | 196,284,442 | 91,021 | 985 |
| Feb 16 | 1,716,311 | 39,670,551 | 15,015,434 | 78,292 |
| At Least One Dose | Fully Vaccinated | % of Vaccinated W/ Boosters | |
| % of Total Population | 72.8% | 61.7% | 31.5% |
| % of Population 12+ | 83.0% | 70.9% | 34.2% |
| % of Population 18+ | 85.0% | 72.6% | 46.2% |
| % of Population 65+ | 95.0% | 87.5% | 56.6% |
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Cases and Deaths are Definitely Climbing, But the Deaths Are Delta, Not Omicron
People infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus may be at lower risk of severe illness and hospitalization compared to those infected with the Delta strain, early studies from the United Kingdom and South Africa suggest. Scientists warn, however, that the picture could change as more people become ill with the highly transmissible new variant, and that health systems could still be overwhelmed.
Two separate British studies, looking at real-world data from England and Scotland, have backed up evidence from South Africa to point to less severity with Omicron cases, however. In England, they analyzed hospital records and vaccination data from the start of December, including 56,000 cases of Omicron and 269,000 cases of Delta. They found that the rate of hospitalization with Omicron was 20% to 25% lower than with the Delta infections, and that the rate of people staying in the hospital for at least one night with Omicron was was around 40% to 45% lower.
In Scotland, scientists scrutinized data from November 1 to December 19. In their pre-print paper, they said "early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization when compared to Delta."
Although Hospitalizations Are High in Certain States, Nationally They Don't Seem to Be Climbing
CDC Hospitalization Graph
The Media, In Headlines Like This, Only Show Part of the Picture
"In highly vaccinated New England, hospitals are under unprecedented strain as coronavirus surges"
The UK Seems to Be a Leading Indicator Of What Will Happen in the US
Looking at daily death rates in the U.K. from May 15 — essentially from the point at which the Delta wave began — to Sept. 15, there is a highly statistically significant relationship between daily new cases and deaths. In short, case rates accurately predict death rates.
But beginning the analysis on Sept. 15, coinciding with flattening of the Delta curve and the onset of Omicron, shows no statistical relationship between Covid-19 case rates and deaths.
In earlier waves, rising death rates would follow an increase in cases; the impact of rising cases on death rates could be seen visually and validated statistically. Deaths would follow cases upward, and peak roughly two to three weeks after new cases began trending downward. With Omicron, however, we not only don’t see the rise in death rates that were associated with the first waves, but we actually see a continuing decline in death rates, despite a radical increase in cases.
Whether or not this breakdown of the relationship between Omicron cases and deaths will play out in other countries, like the U.S., is hard to say. Omicron is currently more prevalent in the U.K. than in the U.S., and the U.K. has far better screening rates, both of which could alter the outcome in the U.S.
Is South Africa a Leading Indicator?
South Africa’s huge omicron wave appears to be easing.
In less than a month, the country’s outbreak has gone from a near-vertical rise to a similar fall.
Why? The quick peaking could be due to the population having a stronger antibody response: More than 70% of South Africans have been infected by previous variants.
Then Again, Maybe We Need to Scare More People
Despite the nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases, more than 110 million Americans are hitting the roads and crowding airports at near pre-pandemic levels, according to AAA. Last year, only about 80 million traveled for the holidays.
"We're 27% ahead of where we were last year," said Robert Sinclair, a senior manager of public affairs at AAA Northeast. "Without a doubt, people have more confidence with the vaccines and the boosters."
Six million will fly, many of them skittish and packing their Omicron trepidation with their toiletries.
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Today We Are Inflating Like It's 1982
Prices remain high in America, and inflation shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon.
A key measure of US inflation rose 5.7% in the 12 months ended in November, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. It was the fastest increase in the consumer spending price index since July 1982.
Stripping out energy and food prices, both of which jumped over the period, the price index advanced 4.7%, the biggest increase since September 1983.
For anyone hoping there would be an end to the exorbitant climb in prices before year-end, this was a disappointment. But it could be the peak.
"We suspect that the November and December headline figures will mark the top given a modest energy price pull-back into the turn of the year," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, in a note to clients.
And indeed, prices rose at a slightly slower pace in November -- 0.6% compared with the 0.7% gain in October. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, prices rose 0.5%, unchanged from the prior month.
Englund expects the so-called core price index to reach a peak in February, "given 2020 comparisons that show a big core price acceleration starting last March."
American incomes also rose last month, but not as quickly as prices.
Total incomes rose by 0.4%, or $90.4 billion, slightly less than in October, while disposable incomes also increased by 0.4% last month, corresponding to $70.4 billion.
But consumer spending outgrew both income measures, rising 0.6%, or $104.7 billion as people were getting busy shopping for the holidays.
Ready For the Biden Boom?
Heading into the new year, the economy looks in better shape than Biden’s legislative agenda. The Wall Street Journal reports: “A booming U.S. economy is rippling around the world, leaving global supply chains struggling to keep up and pushing up prices. The force of the American expansion is also inducing overseas companies to invest in the U.S., betting that the growth is still accelerating and will outpace other major economies.”
With a projected 7 percent annualized growth rate for the fourth quarter, the United States is running circles around Europe and China. That relative strength against the rest of the world, reflected in a strong dollar that lowers the cost of imports for U.S. consumers, matters greatly.
The economy grew 2.3 percent in the third quarter (higher than the expected 2.1 percent). Moreover, for all the talk of inflation and the pandemic, consumer confidence is through the roof. ABC News reports: “The Conference Board, a business research group, said Wednesday that its consumer confidence index — which takes into account consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their outlook for the future — rose to 115.8 in December, the highest reading since July.”
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Do You Want a 70% Chance of Going to the Hospital or an 11% Chance?
The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday authorized Merck’s antiviral pill to treat Covid-19 for emergency use, adding another tool in the nation's arsenal to combat the virus.
The FDA's move comes a day after it authorized another antiviral drug, from Pfizer. Merck's treatment, known as molnupiravir and developed in partnership with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, is cleared for use in adults with mild to moderate Covid who are at risk for severe disease, the agency said in a statement. Pfizer's pill was authorized for people as young as 12.
The use of molnupiravir will be limited to situations where other authorized treatments are inaccessible or not "clinically appropriate," Dr. Patrizia Cavazzoni, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in a statement.
“As new variants of the virus continue to emerge, it is crucial to expand the country’s arsenal of Covid-19 therapies using emergency use authorization, while continuing to generate additional data on their safety and effectiveness," she said.
The big advantage of oral treatments, like Merck’s and Pfizer’s, is that they can be taken at home, and don’t require an IV or injection. That could help the nation's hospitals as new infections are expected to continue to surge this winter.
Clinical trials found that the treatment reduced the risk of hospitalization and death among high-risk Covid patients by 30 percent.
By comparison, Pfizer’s drug has been shown to be 89 percent effective at preventing high-risk people from being hospitalized or dying from Covid.
Why Would Anyone Want the Merck Pill?
Availability of Pfizer's treatment will initially be much more limited than Merck's. That may pose a dilemma for physicians over which treatment option to recommend to their patients.
Is It True That to Get a Pill You Have to Be Able To Pronounce "molnupiravir"?
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An Ounce Of Prevention Is Worth Billions of Dollars of Cure
Preventing pandemics is much cheaper than fighting them once they happen.
The White House, to its credit, understands that preventing the next pandemic requires a large-scale investment. That’s why in September, White House science adviser Eric Lander and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan put out a report calling for $65.3 billion in spending on pandemic preparedness, spread over 10 years.
The proposal included, among other things, $24.2 billion in spending on vaccine preparedness (for instance, improving manufacturing capacity and developing candidate vaccines for common types of viruses), $11.8 billion to prepare antiviral and other therapies against likely pandemic pathogens, and $5 billion on research and manufacturing for testing, as well as funding for personal protective equipment (PPE) and improving building design (for instance through better ventilation). It’s worth reviewing the spending plan in full just to get a sense of how sprawling and comprehensive it is.
Trying To Make Joe Happy Is Very Trying. And Dumb!
But the administration did not put forward the full $65.3 billion in the reconciliation spending package. Initially, it proposed $30 billion in spending in its “American Jobs Plan,” unveiled in late March, which provided the basis for spending negotiations with Congress after the passage of emergency economic stimulus.
Then, upon the announcement of the $65.3 billion pandemic prevention plan, Lander told reporters that the administration wanted at least $15 billion of it funded through reconciliation, much less than either $65.3 billion or $30 billion.
The version passed by the House included even less: $3 billion for pandemic preparedness, split between $1.4 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to do everything from improving testing to laboratory upgrades to genomic sequencing of new pathogens; $1.3 billion for the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Activities (ASPR) at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), to be spent on both manufacturing and research of countermeasures; and $300 million for the Food and Drug Administration to improve its technology and lab infrastructure.
Exhibit A Of Why We Need To Prepare
The World Health Organization is investigating a mysterious illness in South Sudan that has killed dozens of people.
So far, 97 people have died of the unknown disease in Fangak, Jonglei State, in the northern part of the country.
The symptoms of the mysterious illness include cough, diarrhea, fever, headache, chest pain, joint pain, loss of appetite and body weakness, officials said.
According to BBC News, because the area has recently been hit with heavy floods, the WHO tested samples from patients for cholera, which is typically contracted from infected water supplies.
However, the samples returned negative for the infectious bacterial disease, the outlet reported.
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The Previous Guy is a Little Slow. It Only Took Him 13 Months to Figure It Out.
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How Long Before The Right-Wing Media Reveals There is a War on Cats?
Shipping woes, other distribution issues and a shortage of the aluminum used for packaging has led to a shortfall of cat and dog food, especially canned wet food.
Clancy said she’s seeing the biggest impact of the shortage with cat food and brands that tend to be the most cost effective. This could force more families to turn to her organization, which distributes pet food through human food pantries.
Canned dog food is in short supply, though not as severe as the cat food shortage; usually, dog owners have a pet that will eat anything.
Is There a War on Beer?
The holidays tend to make Americans very, very thirsty. And that’s a problem this year, with supply chain snarls hitting the beverage industry — from soda to energy drinks, booze to beer — especially hard. Things could get even tougher in the next couple months.
While typical grocery categories are experiencing 5 to 10 percent of products out of stock right now, beverage shortages are higher, with around 13 percent missing from shelves. Shortages have been showing up in waters, iced teas and soft drinks, as well as beer, hard seltzer and canned cocktails.
A shortage of bottles and cans is responsible for much of it, but trucking and shipping snarls, missing ingredients, labor woes and even freak weather are all contributing to shortages, leaving grocers scrambling to fill in the gaps. It’s just the latest example of ongoing food supply problems that have shown up in a variety of sectors, wreaking havoc on prices and contributing to the highest inflation in three decades.
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Will There Be a War on Texans?
The Texas electric grid could suffer a massive shortfall in generating capacity in a winter deep freeze, potentially triggering outages similar to those in February, according to a report on Thursday by an electric reliability authority.
The assessment by the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC), a nonprofit regulatory authority, comes as Texas lawmakers and regulators continue to investigate ways to bolster the grid to avert a repeat of last winter's blackouts, which left 4.5 million customers without power in a deep freeze that killed more than 200 people
Maybe Ab-Butt's Wall Can Keep Out the Cold
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Is There a War on Texas Kids?
According to the Dallas Morning News, Texas schools have access to an $800 million federal grant to help stop the spread of COVID-19. But education leaders aren't spending much of it.
As of December 7th, state data reports:
About 300 of 1000 Texas public school districts have spent $3.6 million (less than 1% of the available funding).
Private schools have spent $128,000 in testing children.
Also, more than 5 million COVID-19 rapid tests were distributed but as of Nov. 28, only about 1.7 million tests were reported as used, according to the Texas Department of Emergency Management. In other words, about 34% of the tests have been utilized.
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Maybe He Can Get Elected President of Cancun
Or Is It "El Presidente"?
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Losers Gotta' Lose
An attempt in court by former President Donald Trump’s onetime national security adviser Michael Flynn, to block Jan. 6 investigators from obtaining his phone records and testimony, has failed—for now.
U.S. District Judge Mary Scriven issued the ruling against Flynn from Tampa, Florida, on Wednesday. The hammer dropped on Flynn quickly; the former White House official and reported QAnon adherent only filed his lawsuit against the Jan. 6 Committee on Dec. 21.
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What About Your Loan Payments?
Student loan payments will stay paused until May.
The suspension, which started in March 2020, was supposed to lift in a little over a month.
Why was it extended? President Biden said it was necessary to help people economically impacted by the pandemic. He had been facing pressure from activists.
The move will help 41 million borrowers save $5 billion per month.
Student Loan Holders Are Not the Only Ones Impacted
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Is There A War on Democratic Congresswomen?
Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon was carjacked at gunpoint in broad daylight Wednesday afternoon in south Philadelphia's largest park following a business meeting.
The congresswoman was left unharmed, according to a statement provided to ABC News by her spokesperson, Lauren Cox.
Five suspects were taken into custody in Newark, Delaware, at about 9 p.m., when they were found inside Scanlon's Acura MDX in a parking lot, Delaware State Police said. Their names were not released.
Apparently Rep. Scanlon is not the only Democratic lawmaker who has been carjacked in the last few days—Illinois State Rep. Kimberly Lightford was attacked Tuesday night as well.
At this time, the available evidence, however, seems to point to both of these incidents being “just” plain robberies—not politically motivated in any way.
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This Is A Real Attack on Our Young People
There is an explosion of drug-related deaths among US high school and college-aged youth, fueled by what experts say is a flood of fentanyl-filled counterfeit pills being sold on social media and sometimes delivered straight to kids’ homes.
National statistics show a huge surge in drug-related deaths during the pandemic, with fatalities leaping to more than 93,000 in 2020, a 32% rise from 2019. But no group has seen a faster rise than youth under 24, according to a Guardian analysis of 2020 federal data. Among this age group, accidental drug deaths increased by 50% in a single year – taking 7,337 young lives in 2020. Experts say a large portion of this increase is due to the vast quantities of fentanyl streaming into the US.
In California, where fentanyl deaths were rare just five years ago, a young person under 24 is now dying every 12 hours, according to a Guardian analysis of state data through June 2021. That’s a 1,000% increase over 2018
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Tell Kids They Cannot Do Something and Guess What?
Moms and dads stormed into the Spotsylvania County town hall, in Virginia, in early November, hell-bent on purging all “objectionable” books from in the scholastic jurisdiction. Novels containing any commentary about race, sexuality and sexual content was put under the microscope, as a fresh reactionary panic takes aim at the stacks in high school libraries. “Results for gay, 172. Results for heterosexual, two,” said Christina Burris, one of the attending parents, who used the district’s literature search function to make her point. The board relented, voting 6-0 to enact a liquidation.
One of the books targeted by name was 33 Snowfish, an acclaimed 2003 novel concerning a trio of runaway teens and all sorts of sordid, Kids-ish behavior. The concerned parents of northern Virginia believed that heady themes of poverty, addiction and abuse have no place in the sanctums of learning, and therefore, the book needed to go.
When Paul Cymrot heard about the meeting, he tracked down as many copies of 33 Snowfish he could find. He soon discovered, ironically, that book was never really in the school library. 33 Snowfish is barely in print, and Cymrot tells me that it was an ebook version, lingering in some dusty corner of the school library servers, which sparked the initial animus.
The moral militancy immediately backfired, because Cymrot knows a good business opportunity when he sees one. He’s owned the Spotsylvania-area Riverby Books for 25 years, and possesses a shrewd nose for the ebbs and flows of the publishing market. One bookselling truth remains eternally undefeated, explains Cymrot. When a censorious zeitgeist swallows up a novel, a lot of people will want to buy it.
“It was not easy to find a box full of 33 Snowfish, but we did,” he continues. “We sold all that we bought, and we kept a couple as loaners because we wanted to make sure any students in the community could see what the fuss was about. There will always be some around.”
It’s now easier than ever to read 33 Snowfish in Spotsylvania county, subverting the rightwing siege on the supposed woke conspiracy infecting school libraries.
Unless You Tell Them They Cannot Eat Vegetables.
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