UCLA vs Michigan Preview

While the Crimson Tide head back to Sweet Home Alabama, we prepare for Michigan.

When I watched them beat Florida State, they looked like a team with a high basketball IQ.  Since Michigan students tend to have a high IQ to start with, this may not be a shock.

There is only one other elite academic institution left.  This will be the battle of two of America's great public universities.   Cal didn't make it.  

Sorry, SC, when it comes to student athletes as as real students, you are not the Stanford of the West.

I said it would take our best game of the year to beat Alabama.  I don't think we played it. Here's hoping we saved it for Michigan.

At this point, we are the only team left who might have to beat three #1 seeds to win it all.

METRICS

Line: Michgan -7½ -7

ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 20% of the time.

Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 31% of the time.

538:  UCLA wins 38% of the time.

Warren Nolan:  Michigan wins 73-67.

Odd of UCLA winning the championship:  28-1 (Longest odds of anyone in the Elite 8, because of our path.)
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The computers and Vegas see Michigan as the favorite.  


*NOTE:  The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.

The computers are in remarkable agreement.  Michigan is the 3rd or 4th best team in the country.  We are around the 20th.

MICHIGAN'S RECORD




Michigan has a bunch of wins over top-tier Big Ten teams.  You know - the ones who have gone home.  

Their two "worst" losses are both on the road:  At Michigan State and at Minnesota.   You might remember Michigan State.

There other two losses are at home to Illinois and to Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament.

So depending on what you think of the Big Ten, you are either really impressed with Michigan's season, or you think they have a good record against some over-rated teams.

Michigan looked really good dismantling a very good Florida State team.

I think the Wolverines are damned good, but beatable.

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS MICHIGANS'S DEFENSE

I am matching each team's offense with the other team's defense.  For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and ACU allows their opponents to shoot 40.0%.  


This is a close matchup.  It is elite offense vs. elite defense.  And like us, they play excellent defense without fouling a lot.

Unlike Alabama, Michigan is comfortable playing a slower pace.  They will not be outside their comfort zone.

We didn't shoot a great percentage against Alabama's tough defense.  We will need to do better against Michigan.

Advantage:  Even

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS MICHIGAN'S OFFENSE


Michigan is an elite offensive team.  Although we have been playing much better defense lately, we are still not an elite defensive team.  

It is hard to see a weakness in their offense.  They shoot the 3 very well, but they are not overly reliant on it.  They shoot the two very well.  They share the ball.  They don't turn it over a lot.  This is a much more complete offense than any other we have faced all year.

If Cronin can figure out how to slow down this juggernaut, he is a genius.  (And he will likely face an even bigger juggernaut in Gonzaga if he does.)

They don't create a lot of turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over much.

Michigan is a much better FT shooting team than Alabama.  I don't think we can count on our FT defense in this game.  However, we don't usually send opponents to the FT line, so that probably won't be a huge factor.

Advantage: Michigan - By quite a bit.

OTHER FACTORS


They are a better rebounding team, but we are a better offensive rebounding team.

They are very good at sharing the ball.  They get assists on a lot of their shots.   

They block more shots than we do.

We are 12-3 in close games.  They are 11-2.  

Advantage:  Michigan, but small.  

PLAYERS

Michigan only goes 7 deep, although a few other players may see the floor.  They are experienced.  Their rotation consists of 4 senior, 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and 1 freshman.

All seven of those players are very, very good.  However, once you get past them, there isn't much on the bench.  However, we aren't likely to get past those seven.


They have 5 very good 3-point shooters, and their two big guys are not going to pull anyone away from the basket.

Mike Smith is an excellent PG.  He has an exellent A/TO ratio of 2.5.  (Tyger is 2.9.)  He's more of a threat from the outside than in the lane.

Hunter Dickinson gets all the ink, but Wagner may be their best player.  He does everything.  Think Jaimie Jaquez with PG skills. His 3.0 A/TO ratio is the best on the team.  He leads them in steals.  He blocks shots.  He shoots well from everywhere.  And he rebounds the ball. 

Eli is another guard with a great A/TO ratio although his is "only" 2.4.  He can play either on or off the ball.

Chaudee Brown rounds out an outstanding guard rotation.  He is a bit more of a scorer, and he is very good at it.

Then there is Dickenson, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year.   He is a load inside and he is very skilled.  He has moves around the basket and can hit the short jumper.  He is one of the worst FT shooters on the team.  He shoots 76%.  That's how good the other FT shooters are.  We will have a hard time matching up with him. 

Johns is a solid player who doesn't hurt them on the floor, and Austin provides backup for Dickenson, unless they want to go small.  

CONCLUSION