Post by mhbruin on Mar 23, 2021 11:01:40 GMT -8
Welcome to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017. Somehow it seems a lot longer than 4 years.
I said it would take our best game of the year to beat BYU. I think we played it.
Now it will take our best game of the year to beat Alabama.
The tournament gods haven't done us any favors. Seven protected seeds (#1 to #4) made it to the Sweet 16. Three are in our region including #1 and #2.
They say you have to beat good teams to make it to the Final Four. Most of the time that is true. But six teams made it without playing anyone tougher than a #9 seed. If we have to beat a #1 and a #2, so be it.
METRICS
Line: Alabama -5½ to -6
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 27% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 35% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 36% of the time. (4% chance to make the Final Four.)
Warren Nolan: Alabama wins 76-71.
Odd of UCLA winning the championship: 35-1
---
The computers and Vegas see Alabama as the favorite.
*NOTE: The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.
ALABAMA'S RECORD
Alabama didn't do all that well OOC. They lost at Oklahoma and they lost to Stanford on a neutral court. They also lost to Western Kentucky, who was pretty good. Their OOC wins: Furman, Providence, East Tennessee State, Jacksonville State, and UNLV. That's a pretty unimpressive record.
OTOH, they won both the regular season and the tournament championship of the SEC. That's pretty impressive, although it depends on what you think of the SEC. The split the season series with Arkansas, the only other SEC team still alive.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ALABAMA'S DEFENSE
I am matching each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and ACU allows their opponents to shoot 40.0%.
This is a VERY interesting matchup. One of the fastest teams in the country vs one of the slowest. One of the best offenses in the country vs. one of the best defenses in the country.
They defend the three VERY well. They have the #8 three-point defense. We are #28 in shooting the three.
Finally, they get quite a few turnovers. They are #22 in the country in steals and get one every 11.4% of the other team's possessions. This seems to be a pretty even matchup. If we can control tempo and not turn the ball over, we should be fine. If we hit our open threes, we will be even better.
Advantage: Even
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ALABAMA'S OFFENSE
Nate Oats is known for basing his style of play on metrics, and copying the popular NBA style of offense. They want to either shoot 3's or layups, but few mid-range shots. They also want to play fast, fast, fast. It has produced a lot of points, but not amazing shooting percentages.
It doesn't seem like they have much of a post-up game. They want to penetrate and get to the rim or penetrate and kick it out for a three. They also want to beat you down the floor.
Their offense is rated better than our defense. However, our defense has been playing a lot better lately. This is a closer matchup than you might expect.
If you watched their game against Maryland, you might think they are an amazing three-point shooting team. They are good, but not great.
They are the 90th best 3-point shooting team in the country. We are a better 3-point shooting team than they are (#28). They just shoot a ton of them.
And their overall shooting percentage of 43.5% isn't very impressive, either. They are #132 in 2-point shooting. We don't want to give up layups, but we would rather they shoot inside the arc than from it. Like any team, they can get hot, but their offense should not scare us.
Tempo, tempo, tempo. If we can control the tempo, we should be fine. And GET BACK ON DEFENSE!
Advantage: Alabama, but Small.
OTHER FACTORS
We should have a slight edge on the boards, and offensive rebounding looks pretty even. Based on A/TO ratio, we should have an edge at PG play.
They block quite a few shots. They block 6.9% of their opponent's shots, which is #64 in the country. The high number of blocks is partly due to their fast pace.
We are 11-3 in close games. They are 7-3.
Advantage: Even or slightly favoring UCLA
PLAYERS
Alabama goes 10 deep, although they may vary their rotation based on matchups.
That consists of 4 seniors, 2 juniors, 2 sophomores, and 2 freshmen.
The first thing that strikes you about them is they are long and thin. I have to wonder how they will react to physical play.
They have played a lot of game for this season. They didn't miss a single game because of COVID, and they seem to have had their full roster for just about every game.
It's hard to highlight any player. The TV guys say that Jones is their best player, but really he is just another interchangeable part.
Their best player seems to be Quinerly, a Villanova transfer. He is a lightning quick guard who is their only real dual-threat. He is very good at beating his man and getting to the rim. He is also their best outside threat. He probably about as close to a PG as they have, but has a mediocre 1.4 to 1 A/TO ratio. No one else on the team is any better.
Then they have six guys who shoot between 32% and 39% from the arc. This presents a challenge, since it is not easy to focus on any particular outside shooter. Even a poor 3-point shooter like Reese can go off for 3 out of 5 like he did against Maryland.
For all that, they are still only 35% as a team on threes. They aren't easy to defend, but hardly impossible.
As I mentioned, they don't really have a post-up game.
CONCLUSION
I said it would take our best game of the year to beat BYU. I think we played it.
Now it will take our best game of the year to beat Alabama.
The tournament gods haven't done us any favors. Seven protected seeds (#1 to #4) made it to the Sweet 16. Three are in our region including #1 and #2.
They say you have to beat good teams to make it to the Final Four. Most of the time that is true. But six teams made it without playing anyone tougher than a #9 seed. If we have to beat a #1 and a #2, so be it.
METRICS
Line: Alabama -5½ to -6
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 27% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 35% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 36% of the time. (4% chance to make the Final Four.)
Warren Nolan: Alabama wins 76-71.
Odd of UCLA winning the championship: 35-1
---
The computers and Vegas see Alabama as the favorite.
| Alabama | UCLA | |
| NET* | 7 | 46 |
| KenPom Rank | 8 | 24 |
| Sagarin Rank | 7 | 28 |
| Torvick Rank | 9 | 27 |
| SOS | 39 | 26 |
| Record | 26-6 | 20-9 |
*NOTE: The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.
ALABAMA'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 3-6 | 5-3 | 8-0 | 4-0 |
| Alabama | 9-4 | 9-1 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| UCLA away from home | 9-8 |
| Alabama away from home | 14-5 |
Alabama didn't do all that well OOC. They lost at Oklahoma and they lost to Stanford on a neutral court. They also lost to Western Kentucky, who was pretty good. Their OOC wins: Furman, Providence, East Tennessee State, Jacksonville State, and UNLV. That's a pretty unimpressive record.
OTOH, they won both the regular season and the tournament championship of the SEC. That's pretty impressive, although it depends on what you think of the SEC. The split the season series with Arkansas, the only other SEC team still alive.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ALABAMA'S DEFENSE
I am matching each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and ACU allows their opponents to shoot 40.0%.
Alabama Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 3 | 12 |
| Torvick Rank | 3 | 15 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 69.5 | 73.1 |
| Tempo (Rank in US out of 347) | 10 | 328 |
| FG Percent | 40.8% | 46.3% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 28.9% | 37.4% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21.1 | 18.2 |
| FT Percent | 68.4% | 71.1% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 18.9 | 18.4 |
| Assists Per Game | 11.1 | 13.5 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 15.6 | 10.8 |
This is a VERY interesting matchup. One of the fastest teams in the country vs one of the slowest. One of the best offenses in the country vs. one of the best defenses in the country.
They defend the three VERY well. They have the #8 three-point defense. We are #28 in shooting the three.
Finally, they get quite a few turnovers. They are #22 in the country in steals and get one every 11.4% of the other team's possessions. This seems to be a pretty even matchup. If we can control tempo and not turn the ball over, we should be fine. If we hit our open threes, we will be even better.
Advantage: Even
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ALABAMA'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Alabama Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 63 | 28 |
| Torvick Rank | 64 | 30 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67.9 | 79.7 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 328 | 10 |
| FG Percent | 43.7% | 43.5% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 34.2% | 35.5% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21.5 | 30.0 |
| FT Percent | 73.8% | 71.9% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 15.7 | 18.3 |
| Assists Per Game | 12.1 | 14.2 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 11.7 | 13.9 |
Nate Oats is known for basing his style of play on metrics, and copying the popular NBA style of offense. They want to either shoot 3's or layups, but few mid-range shots. They also want to play fast, fast, fast. It has produced a lot of points, but not amazing shooting percentages.
It doesn't seem like they have much of a post-up game. They want to penetrate and get to the rim or penetrate and kick it out for a three. They also want to beat you down the floor.
Their offense is rated better than our defense. However, our defense has been playing a lot better lately. This is a closer matchup than you might expect.
If you watched their game against Maryland, you might think they are an amazing three-point shooting team. They are good, but not great.
They are the 90th best 3-point shooting team in the country. We are a better 3-point shooting team than they are (#28). They just shoot a ton of them.
And their overall shooting percentage of 43.5% isn't very impressive, either. They are #132 in 2-point shooting. We don't want to give up layups, but we would rather they shoot inside the arc than from it. Like any team, they can get hot, but their offense should not scare us.
Tempo, tempo, tempo. If we can control the tempo, we should be fine. And GET BACK ON DEFENSE!
Advantage: Alabama, but Small.
OTHER FACTORS
| Alabama | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | 31.2% (#51) | 30.5% (#88) |
| Offensive Rebounds | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Assist Percentage | 50.7% (#201) | 50.8% (198) |
| Blocks | 4.3 | 2.7 |
We should have a slight edge on the boards, and offensive rebounding looks pretty even. Based on A/TO ratio, we should have an edge at PG play.
They block quite a few shots. They block 6.9% of their opponent's shots, which is #64 in the country. The high number of blocks is partly due to their fast pace.
We are 11-3 in close games. They are 7-3.
Advantage: Even or slightly favoring UCLA
PLAYERS
Alabama goes 10 deep, although they may vary their rotation based on matchups.
That consists of 4 seniors, 2 juniors, 2 sophomores, and 2 freshmen.
The first thing that strikes you about them is they are long and thin. I have to wonder how they will react to physical play.
They have played a lot of game for this season. They didn't miss a single game because of COVID, and they seem to have had their full roster for just about every game.
| Class | Size | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | |
| John Petty Jr | Sr | 6-5 184 | 32 | 31 | 13 | 41% | 34% | 4 | 2 | |
| Jaden Shackelford | So | 6-3 200 | 29 | 29 | 14 | 41% | 35% | 4 | 2 | |
| Herbert Jones | Sr | 6-8 210 | 31 | 27 | 11 | 45% | 37% | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Jahvon Quinerly | So | 6-1 175 | 32 | 25 | 13 | 49% | 44% | 2 | 3 | |
| Joshua Primo | Fr | 6-6 190 | 29 | 23 | 8 | 43% | 39% | 3 | 1 | |
| Jordan Bruner | Sr | 6-10 225 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 43% | 32% | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Keon Ellis | Jr | 6-6 170 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 49% | 39% | 4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Alex Reese | Sr | 6-8 230 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 37% | 28% | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| James Rojas | Jr | 6-8 220 | 29 | 11 | 3 | 35% | 23% | 3 | 0 | |
| Juwan Gary | Fr | 6-6 218 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 52% | 11% | 3 | 0 |
It's hard to highlight any player. The TV guys say that Jones is their best player, but really he is just another interchangeable part.
Their best player seems to be Quinerly, a Villanova transfer. He is a lightning quick guard who is their only real dual-threat. He is very good at beating his man and getting to the rim. He is also their best outside threat. He probably about as close to a PG as they have, but has a mediocre 1.4 to 1 A/TO ratio. No one else on the team is any better.
Then they have six guys who shoot between 32% and 39% from the arc. This presents a challenge, since it is not easy to focus on any particular outside shooter. Even a poor 3-point shooter like Reese can go off for 3 out of 5 like he did against Maryland.
For all that, they are still only 35% as a team on threes. They aren't easy to defend, but hardly impossible.
As I mentioned, they don't really have a post-up game.
CONCLUSION
Statistically, this is a pretty even matchup. We don't seem to be at all overmatched.
The game will come down to tempo, and as Seth Davis keeps saying the tortoise usually beats the hare. I think we slow it down and they get frustrated. That can lead them to rush their shots.
I also think we will be more physical than they are. A lot will depend on how the refs call the games, but there seem to be fewer fouls called in the tournament.
Finally, I think Cronin will do a better job of in-game adjustments than Nate Oat$. Oat$ has his game plan. I don't think he can adapt it that well.
I don't usually make predictions, but what the hell! I think we win this game. Bring on the Wolverines or Seminoles!
Sue me if I'm wrong. (But not you, Dallas.)
The game will come down to tempo, and as Seth Davis keeps saying the tortoise usually beats the hare. I think we slow it down and they get frustrated. That can lead them to rush their shots.
I also think we will be more physical than they are. A lot will depend on how the refs call the games, but there seem to be fewer fouls called in the tournament.
Finally, I think Cronin will do a better job of in-game adjustments than Nate Oat$. Oat$ has his game plan. I don't think he can adapt it that well.
I don't usually make predictions, but what the hell! I think we win this game. Bring on the Wolverines or Seminoles!
Sue me if I'm wrong. (But not you, Dallas.)
