Post by mhbruin on Mar 21, 2021 9:21:45 GMT -8
Welcome to the round of 32 for the first time since 2017. We haven't won 3 games in a tournament since 2008. Gotta' feeling '21 is gonna' be a good year.
I said it would take our best game of the year to beat BYU. I think we played it. Survive and advance. On the Abilene Christian.
It won't take our best game to beat the Wildcats. However, we don't want to play one of our worst. And they are capable of making that happen.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -4½ to -5
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 64% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 70% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 75% of the time.
Warren Nolan: ACU wins 72-63.
---
Vegas and most computers make us the favorites, but not prohibitive favorites. I cannot explain Warren Nolan's prediction.
ACU is the 2nd lowest-rated team remaining according to KenPom. Only Oral Roberts rates lower. Sagarin has them only above Ohio U and ORU.
Comparting stats is going to be hard, because of the MASSIVE difference in SOS.
*NOTE: The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.
ACU'S RECORD
ACU has one quality win, the win over Texas. However, they played two other tournament teams and the outcomes were respectable. They lost at Arkansas by 13 and at Texas Tech by 7. They have shown they are capable of playing with the big boys.
However, they have also shown they can lose to terrible teams. They have a bad loss at San Houston State and a terrible loss to Central Arkansas, who is ranked #330 out of 357 teams in KenPom. I would guess that is the worst loss of any team still playing.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ACU'S DEFENSE
I am matching each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and ACU allows their opponents to shoot 40.0%.
This is where the game will be decided. They have the statistics of an elite defense, however, they did not completely shut down Texas. The Longhorns shot 45% from the field and 35% from the arc. However ACU got them to commit 23 turnovers including 11 steals. When Texas held on to the ball, they got good shots.
We need to take care of the ball and not get speeded up by their pressure. We don't turn the ball over a lot. They lead the country in creating turnovers.
We are one of the slowest teams in the country. They like to play fast. Seth Davis says the tortoise usually wins. Seth Davis is wrong a lot, but let's hope he is right this time.
About their defense: They lead the country in creating turnovers. This is not the Oregon full-court press. It is a pressure, scrambling half-court defense. They will pressure the ball aggressively and double the ball anywhere. They very high-energy on defense. I don't know of any other team to compare them to.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ACU'S OFFENSE
For a change our defense is better than their offense. In fact, this looks like a mismatch. We are a decent defensive team. Even against the weak teams they played they are not a great offensive team.
In spite of the 2 free throws to beat Texas, they are not a great free throw team.
OTHER FACTORS
They have an ASTOUNDING 67% of their baskets come off of assists. That is #2 in the nation. Don't expect a ton of one-on-one play.
ASTOUNDING fact #2. ACU got EIGHTEEN offensive rebounds against Texas. If they do that against us, we are in big trouble. However, that was a bit of an aberration. They are a decent offensive rebounding team, but nothing that special on the offensive boards.
Rebounding looks pretty even.
We are 11-3 in close games. They are 2-1.
PLAYERS
ACU goes 11 deep. The play a frantic pace on defense and they want to keep everyone fresh.
I am not going to cover all 11 of them, but only the 8 who play at least 15 minutes per game.
That consists of 4 seniors, 3 juniors, and a sophomore.
I am not going to try to evaluate each player. I watched the Texas game, but I was pretty inebriated at that time, so my attention to detail wasn't very good. And they seem to do everything by committee.
Pleasant is their one scary 3-point shooter, but he only takes an average of 1.5 of them per game. The rest of the guys are all capable of shooting the 3, but no one stands out as a 3-point shooter.
Reggie Miller is a skinny guy (both of them are), but is a capable PG with a 2.4 A/TO ratio.
Damien Daniels may be the last guy Tyger sees this season who is smaller, but he will be a pest.
Kohl is a capable big guy. He's not very athletic, but he has skills. He takes more shots than anyone else on the team.
CONCLUSION
This game is very simple.
It is easier said than done. If we try to slow the game down by holding on to the ball, they will trap.
Texas contributed a lot to the loss. They turned the ball over and didn't rebound well. ACU shot 27 more shots, and still only won by one point.
We are the better team, but this is one game, and they play a style we haven't seen yet this year.
I like our chances, but this could be a struggle.
I said it would take our best game of the year to beat BYU. I think we played it. Survive and advance. On the Abilene Christian.
It won't take our best game to beat the Wildcats. However, we don't want to play one of our worst. And they are capable of making that happen.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -4½ to -5
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 64% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 70% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 75% of the time.
Warren Nolan: ACU wins 72-63.
---
Vegas and most computers make us the favorites, but not prohibitive favorites. I cannot explain Warren Nolan's prediction.
| ACU | UCLA | |
| NET* | 74 | 46 |
| KenPom Rank | 80 | 33 |
| Sagarin Rank | 95 | 31 |
| SOS | 316 | 34 |
| Record | 23-4 | 19-9 |
ACU is the 2nd lowest-rated team remaining according to KenPom. Only Oral Roberts rates lower. Sagarin has them only above Ohio U and ORU.
Comparting stats is going to be hard, because of the MASSIVE difference in SOS.
*NOTE: The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.
ACU'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 3-6 | 4-3 | 8-0 | 4-0 |
| ACU | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 15-1 |
| UCLA away from home | 8-8 |
| ACU away from home | 11-4 |
ACU has one quality win, the win over Texas. However, they played two other tournament teams and the outcomes were respectable. They lost at Arkansas by 13 and at Texas Tech by 7. They have shown they are capable of playing with the big boys.
However, they have also shown they can lose to terrible teams. They have a bad loss at San Houston State and a terrible loss to Central Arkansas, who is ranked #330 out of 357 teams in KenPom. I would guess that is the worst loss of any team still playing.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ACU'S DEFENSE
I am matching each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and ACU allows their opponents to shoot 40.0%.
ACU Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 24 | 12 |
| Torvick Rank | 50 | 21 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60.5 | 73.3 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 97 | 324 |
| FG Percent | 40.0% | 46.2% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.6% | 37.2% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 17.8 | 18.1 |
| FT Percent | 68.3% | 72.2% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 20.3 | 18.7 |
| Assists Per Game | 10.0 | 13.6 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 20.3 | 11.1 |
This is where the game will be decided. They have the statistics of an elite defense, however, they did not completely shut down Texas. The Longhorns shot 45% from the field and 35% from the arc. However ACU got them to commit 23 turnovers including 11 steals. When Texas held on to the ball, they got good shots.
We need to take care of the ball and not get speeded up by their pressure. We don't turn the ball over a lot. They lead the country in creating turnovers.
We are one of the slowest teams in the country. They like to play fast. Seth Davis says the tortoise usually wins. Seth Davis is wrong a lot, but let's hope he is right this time.
About their defense: They lead the country in creating turnovers. This is not the Oregon full-court press. It is a pressure, scrambling half-court defense. They will pressure the ball aggressively and double the ball anywhere. They very high-energy on defense. I don't know of any other team to compare them to.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ACU'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | ACU Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 82 | 164 |
| Torvick Rank | 90 | 166 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 68.9 | 77.6 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 324 | 97 |
| FG Percent | 44.0% | 46.0% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 35.1% | 35.3% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21.6 | 22.3 |
| FT Percent | 73.6% | 67.6% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 15.8 | 20.8 |
| Assists Per Game | 12.9 | 13.5 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 11.8 | 13.8 |
For a change our defense is better than their offense. In fact, this looks like a mismatch. We are a decent defensive team. Even against the weak teams they played they are not a great offensive team.
In spite of the 2 free throws to beat Texas, they are not a great free throw team.
OTHER FACTORS
| ACU | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | 31.1% | 30.5% |
| Offensive Rebounds | 11.7 | 10.1 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Assist Percentage | 66.9% | 51.2% |
| Blocks | 3.0 | 2.7 |
They have an ASTOUNDING 67% of their baskets come off of assists. That is #2 in the nation. Don't expect a ton of one-on-one play.
ASTOUNDING fact #2. ACU got EIGHTEEN offensive rebounds against Texas. If they do that against us, we are in big trouble. However, that was a bit of an aberration. They are a decent offensive rebounding team, but nothing that special on the offensive boards.
Rebounding looks pretty even.
We are 11-3 in close games. They are 2-1.
PLAYERS
ACU goes 11 deep. The play a frantic pace on defense and they want to keep everyone fresh.
I am not going to cover all 11 of them, but only the 8 who play at least 15 minutes per game.
That consists of 4 seniors, 3 juniors, and a sophomore.
| Class | Size | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | |
| Reggie Miller | Sr | 6-0 150 | 28 | 29 | 6 | 46% | 36% | 4 | 4 | |
| Coryon Mason | Sr | 6-0 180 | 24 | 26 | 11 | 47% | 38% | 2 | 2 | |
| Damien Daniels | Jr | 5-7 140 | 28 | 24 | 6 | 38% | 29% | 2 | 3 | |
| Joe Pleasant | Jr | 6-8 220 | 27 | 23 | 11 | 47% | 48% | 6 | 1 | |
| Kolton Kohl | Sr | 7-0 240 | 28 | 19 | 12 | 54% | 27% | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Mahki Morris | Sr | 6-3 184 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 44% | 37% | 2 | 1 | |
| Clay Gayman | Jr | 6-6 220 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 41% | 34% | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Airion Simmons F | So | 6-5 264 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 49% | 37% | 4 | 1 |
I am not going to try to evaluate each player. I watched the Texas game, but I was pretty inebriated at that time, so my attention to detail wasn't very good. And they seem to do everything by committee.
Pleasant is their one scary 3-point shooter, but he only takes an average of 1.5 of them per game. The rest of the guys are all capable of shooting the 3, but no one stands out as a 3-point shooter.
Reggie Miller is a skinny guy (both of them are), but is a capable PG with a 2.4 A/TO ratio.
Damien Daniels may be the last guy Tyger sees this season who is smaller, but he will be a pest.
Kohl is a capable big guy. He's not very athletic, but he has skills. He takes more shots than anyone else on the team.
CONCLUSION
This game is very simple.
- Take care of the ball. Make the simple pass.
- Don't hold on to the ball. They will double you.
- If you drive into the paint, they will collapse and swipe at the ball. Be strong with it.
- Don't let them speed you up on offense.
- Crash the defensive board. We aren't going to fast-break anyway.
It is easier said than done. If we try to slow the game down by holding on to the ball, they will trap.
Texas contributed a lot to the loss. They turned the ball over and didn't rebound well. ACU shot 27 more shots, and still only won by one point.
We are the better team, but this is one game, and they play a style we haven't seen yet this year.
I like our chances, but this could be a struggle.