Post by mhbruin on Mar 19, 2021 8:49:09 GMT -8
BYU is REALLY good. They may be under-seeded as a #6. I could make the case they should be a #4 seed.
They are a classic basketball team with a combination of size inside and great outside shooting. They are really good on offense and defense.
It will take our best game of the year to beat them. Or perhaps their worst game, but I wouldn't count on that.
METRICS
Line: BYU -3½ to -4
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 38% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 36% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 43% of the time.
Warren Nolan: BYU wins 75-69.
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The computers and bettors think we are underdogs.
We have played a little tougher schedule than BYU. The main reason BYU's schedule is this strong is three games against Gonzaga (all losses) but they also have games against SDSU, USC, and Utah State.
*NOTE: The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.
BYU'S RECORD
BYU has 2 really good wins. They have road wins over SDSU and Utah State. But perhaps BYU's best game was a 10-point loss to Gonzaga where they led with 7 minutes to go.
Their worst loss was at Pepperdine, and the Waves are a dangerous team. Their next worst was to Boise State, a bubble team who didn't make it.
So they have good wins and no really bad losses unless you count a 23-point drubbing by SC.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS BYU'S DEFENSE
I am changing up the stats to match each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and BYU allows their opponents to shoot 40.9%.
This section is almost identical to what I wrote about Michigan State.
Once again, this is strength on strength. We are a very good offensive team. They are a very good defensive team.
We play slower than they do. We shoot high percentages. They allow low shooting percentages.
Their opponents have generally shoot more 3's than we do, but that may be a result of our slow pace.
They don't give up a ton free throws.
They do not create a lot of turnovers, and we don't commit a lot of them.
Overall, this looks like a pretty even matchup.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS BYU'S OFFENSE
Here is the mismatch. They are an excellent offensive team. They shoot a very high percentage from the field and from beyond the arc. Around 40% of their shots are threes.
They play fast and score a lot of points. They share the ball well. They have scored fewer than 71 points twice all year.
This is as good an offense as we have faced all year. Be afraid.
OTHER FACTORS
They are a better rebounding team than we are, but we are a better offensive rebounding team.
We are the 85th best offensive rebounding team in the country. They are the 148th.
For all their size, they don't block a ton of shots.
We are 11-3 in close games. They are 5-2.
PLAYERS
BYU goes 10 deep. That consist of 3 seniors, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores, and a freshman. They play a lot of upper-classmen.
Their best player is Arizona transfer Alex Barcello. He is a threat to score from anywhere. He defends. He gets rebounds and assists. He does the team laundry after the game. I should point out FORTY-NINE PERCENT from beyond the arc. The first defender to leave him open should bet a spot on the bench.
The other guard is Bradon Averette. For a change, Tyger won't be looking up at the other guard. However, he will be looking at a guard who can make his three-point shots pretty well and does everything else pretty well.
Everyone will be looking up at Purdue center, Matt Haarms. He is gigantic and has some skills. However, he isn't going to dominate the game.
Caleb Lohner is a good-looking freshman who is a rebounding machine. He is their leading offensive rebounder.
Richard Harward backs up Haarms, and he is a very good backup center. He scores and rebounds.
Trevin Knell and Spencer Johnson round out the over-40% club for 3-point shooters.
CONCLUSION
This game will come down to one thing. Can we slow down their high-powered offense? Few teams have done it this year. And we don't seem to have the defense to do it.
We may need to try to match them in a high-scoring contest. That is going to be tough, since they play excellent defense.
On factor that may help us is our slow pace. A lot of teams don't like to play against slower teams. Maybe the Cougars will get impatient. However, with all those upper-classmen, I don't expect it.
The computers give us a 36% to 43% chance of winning. I have no reason to argue with them. (It's kind of dumb to argue with a computer, anyway.) We have a chance in this game, but we will need to play very well.
They are a classic basketball team with a combination of size inside and great outside shooting. They are really good on offense and defense.
It will take our best game of the year to beat them. Or perhaps their worst game, but I wouldn't count on that.
METRICS
Line: BYU -3½ to -4
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 38% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 36% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 43% of the time.
Warren Nolan: BYU wins 75-69.
---
The computers and bettors think we are underdogs.
| BYU | UCLA | |
| NET* | 20 | 46 |
| KenPom Rank | 24 | 43 |
| Sagarin Rank | 25 | 39 |
| SOS | 80 | 60 |
| Record | 19-6 | 18-9 |
We have played a little tougher schedule than BYU. The main reason BYU's schedule is this strong is three games against Gonzaga (all losses) but they also have games against SDSU, USC, and Utah State.
*NOTE: The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.
BYU'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-6 | 3-3 | 8-0 | 4-0 |
| BYU | 3-4 | 5-2 | 6-0 | 5-0 |
| UCLA away from home | 7-8 |
| BYU away from home | 10-4 |
BYU has 2 really good wins. They have road wins over SDSU and Utah State. But perhaps BYU's best game was a 10-point loss to Gonzaga where they led with 7 minutes to go.
Their worst loss was at Pepperdine, and the Waves are a dangerous team. Their next worst was to Boise State, a bubble team who didn't make it.
So they have good wins and no really bad losses unless you count a 23-point drubbing by SC.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS BYU'S DEFENSE
I am changing up the stats to match each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and BYU allows their opponents to shoot 40.9%.
BYU Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 26 | 18 |
| Torvick Rank | 27 | 24 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 68.5 | 73.3 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 182 | 322 |
| FG Percent | 40.9% | 46.2% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 32.7% | 37.2% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21.2 | 18.1 |
| FT Percent | 68.5% | 72.2% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 17.8 | 18.7 |
| Assists Per Game | 11.6 | 13.6 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 11.6 | 11.1 |
This section is almost identical to what I wrote about Michigan State.
Once again, this is strength on strength. We are a very good offensive team. They are a very good defensive team.
We play slower than they do. We shoot high percentages. They allow low shooting percentages.
Their opponents have generally shoot more 3's than we do, but that may be a result of our slow pace.
They don't give up a ton free throws.
They do not create a lot of turnovers, and we don't commit a lot of them.
Overall, this looks like a pretty even matchup.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS BYU'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | BYU Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 94 | 27 |
| Torvick Rank | 85 | 25 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 68.9 | 78.7 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 322 | 82 |
| FG Percent | 44.0% | 48.2% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 35.1% | 37.8% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21.7 | 25.4 |
| FT Percent | 74.2% | 73.1% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 15.8 | 16.4 |
| Assists Per Game | 12.3 | 16.6 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 11.9 | 13.3 |
Here is the mismatch. They are an excellent offensive team. They shoot a very high percentage from the field and from beyond the arc. Around 40% of their shots are threes.
They play fast and score a lot of points. They share the ball well. They have scored fewer than 71 points twice all year.
This is as good an offense as we have faced all year. Be afraid.
OTHER FACTORS
| BYU State | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 5.7 | 3.1 |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | 28.6% | 30.7% |
| Offensive Rebounds | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Assist Percentage | 57.3% | 51.2% |
| Blocks | 2.8 | 2.7 |
They are a better rebounding team than we are, but we are a better offensive rebounding team.
We are the 85th best offensive rebounding team in the country. They are the 148th.
For all their size, they don't block a ton of shots.
We are 11-3 in close games. They are 5-2.
PLAYERS
BYU goes 10 deep. That consist of 3 seniors, 4 juniors, 2 sophomores, and a freshman. They play a lot of upper-classmen.
| Class | Size | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | |
| Alex Barcello | Sr | 6-2 180 | 26 | 32 | 16 | 52% | 49% | 5 | 5 | |
| Brandon Averette | Sr | 5-11 185 | 26 | 28 | 12 | 44% | 36% | 3 | 4 | |
| Matt Haarms | Sr | 7-3 250 | 24 | 23 | 11 | 55% | 19% | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Caleb Lohner | Fr | 6-8 230 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 47% | 35% | 7 | 1 | |
| Trevin Knell | So | 6-5 190 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 47% | 46% | 2 | 1 | |
| Richard Harward | Jr | 6-11 255 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 60% | 0% | 5 | 1 | |
| Gideon George | Jr | 6-6 190 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 41% | 33% | 4 | 0 | |
| Connor Harding | Jr | 6-6 185 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 40% | 32% | 3 | 2 | |
| Spencer Johnson | So | 6-5 175 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 46% | 41% | 2 | 1 | |
| Kolby Lee | Jr | 6-9 240 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 52% | 32% | 2 | 1 |
Their best player is Arizona transfer Alex Barcello. He is a threat to score from anywhere. He defends. He gets rebounds and assists. He does the team laundry after the game. I should point out FORTY-NINE PERCENT from beyond the arc. The first defender to leave him open should bet a spot on the bench.
The other guard is Bradon Averette. For a change, Tyger won't be looking up at the other guard. However, he will be looking at a guard who can make his three-point shots pretty well and does everything else pretty well.
Everyone will be looking up at Purdue center, Matt Haarms. He is gigantic and has some skills. However, he isn't going to dominate the game.
Caleb Lohner is a good-looking freshman who is a rebounding machine. He is their leading offensive rebounder.
Richard Harward backs up Haarms, and he is a very good backup center. He scores and rebounds.
Trevin Knell and Spencer Johnson round out the over-40% club for 3-point shooters.
CONCLUSION
This game will come down to one thing. Can we slow down their high-powered offense? Few teams have done it this year. And we don't seem to have the defense to do it.
We may need to try to match them in a high-scoring contest. That is going to be tough, since they play excellent defense.
On factor that may help us is our slow pace. A lot of teams don't like to play against slower teams. Maybe the Cougars will get impatient. However, with all those upper-classmen, I don't expect it.
The computers give us a 36% to 43% chance of winning. I have no reason to argue with them. (It's kind of dumb to argue with a computer, anyway.) We have a chance in this game, but we will need to play very well.