Post by mhbruin on Mar 15, 2021 14:20:44 GMT -8
Let me preface this by saying that I have not seen Michigan State this season, so this is strictly based on the numbers. Others have seen them and can provide more information. However, I should be able to be wrong about just as many things without seeing them play as I would if I had seen them play.
A lot of folks are intimidated by Michigan State. Hall of fame coach with a National Championship and 4 Final Fours. Three wins over three #1 seeds.
However, this is not your vintage Tom Izzo team. Their 8th-place finish in the Big Ten is the lowest in his tenure in East Lansing.
#11 is the lowest seed the Spartans have received in 33 previous NCAA tournament appearances. Their previous lowest was a No. 10 three times (1975, 2002 and 2011). MSU lost its first-round game each of those years.
This one isn't hopeless. Read on, McDuff.
METRICS
Line: Michigan State -2
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 61% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 55% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 46% of the time.
Warren Nolan: UCLA wins 72-66.
---
Most of the computers like us, even if the bettors don't.
Perhaps the thing that stands out most is the strength of schedule. Michigan State's stats were earned against a much tougher schedule than our. However, the other thing that stands out is their record.
MICHIGAN STATE'S RECORD
The Big Ten is a very tough league, but 15-12 is nothing to write home about.
Michigan State has 3 great wins over Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State. All three were at home. After from home, they haven't done as well.
Their best road wins are at Duke and Indiana. Their only neutral game result is an 11-point loss to Maryland in their only game in the Big Ten Tournament. FWIW, the loss was in Indianapolis.
They have lost 3 of their last 5 games. It is not as if they are coming in on a winning streak. (Of course, neither are we.) They have lost 6 of their last 7 away from home.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS MICHIGAN STATE'S DEFENSE
I am changing up the stats to match each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and MSU allows their opponents to shoot 42.5%.
This is clearly strength on strength. We are a very good offensive team. They are a very good defensive team.
We play slower than they do. We shoot high percentages. They allow low shooting percentages.
Their opponents have generally shot more 3's than we do, but that may be a result of our slow pace.
They give up quite a few free throws.
They do not create a lot of turnovers, and we don't commit a lot of them.
Overall, this looks like a pretty even matchup.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS MICHIGAN STATE'S OFFENSE
They play quite a bit faster than we do, but score fewer points (69.0 to our 72.8). We allow fewer points than they do (68.5 to 70.6), but you can attribute that to our slower pace.
And here we have weakness on weakness. We have a mediocre defense against a mediocre offense. Notably, we don't defend the 3 very well, but they don't shoot it very well.
We don't give up a ton of free throws. We may not play great defense, but we do play defense without fouling.
OTHER FACTORS
This is not a traditional Michigan State rebounding monster. In fact, we have a slightly better rebound margin.
Both teams have an offensive rebound percent of around 30%. (North Carolina leads the country at over 41%.)
Michigan State is REALLY good at sharing the ball. That 64% assist percentage is 5th best in the country. Is this an important stat? Of the top 20 teams in the country in assist percentage, only 3 are in the tournament, Iowa, Michigan State, and Utah State.
(Utah State is a GREAT passing team. If Cronin ever left, we should look closely at Craig Smith for our coach.)
We are 10-3 in close games. They are 5-2.
PLAYERS
Michigan State played twelve players quite a bit throughout the season, but they seem to have settled on a 9-man rotation. Marble doesn't seem to be playing much these days.
So expect to see 1 senior, 5 juniors, 2 sophomores, and a freshman.
According to one story, partway through the season, Izzo went with a smaller, more athletic lineup. There are a bunch of 6-5 to 6-9 guys, but they are not heavyweights. And of the guys who play the bulk of the minutes, there is only one guy over 6-7.
The Spartans do most things by committee. On offense, nobody is good at everything. To the extent that they have a good outside shooter, it would be Brown and he isn't a good 2-point shooter. Henry, Hauser, and Hall are pretty good close to the basket, but only adequate from distance.
(Marble may look like a threat, but he doesn't play much and has only taken one 3-point shot all season.)
They need to play well together, because it doesn't look like anyone is going to beat you going one-on-one.
I am not going to try to make detailed comments on a bunch of players I haven't seen play, but I will go through the numbers.
Henry has been in double figures for 25 of their 27 games. He shoots a lot, but only 18% of his shots are 3's. He shoots 49% inside the arc, and 28% outside. It's pretty obvious how to play him. (I don't know if Izzo recruited him by promising he would get to play in the NCAA tournament. Did he really say, "Dance with me Henry"?)
Henry handles the ball quite a bit. He leads the team in assists and turnovers. He has a 1.2 A/TO ratio.
Hauser rarely scores more than 11 points. Around half his shots are 3's. He's the only guy who plays a lot over 6-7.
Langford has seen his scoring and shooting percent drop off quite a bit from last season. He is second on the team in shots taken. 42% of his shots are 3's, which isn't a shock because he has been terrible inside the arc.
Watts occasionally goes off. He has had 3 games over 20. OTOH, he has had a LOT more games where he hasn't been a factor. Against Maryland, he scored 3 points in 31 minutes. They haven't lost when he has been in double digits. He doesn't shoot the 3 that much, for good reason. He handles the ball quite a bit, but has a mediocre 1.8 A/TO ratio.
Gabe Brown is their best outside shooter, but at 39%, no one will mistake him for Downtown Freddy Brown. For one thing, he is not a high volume shooter. He takes fewer than 6 shots per game. Almost 60% of his shots are 3's.
CONCLUSION
It's an age-old story: Boy meets girl. Boy marries girl. Boy turns out to be creepy.... Sorry, my wife is watching a lot of Lifetime movies.
Let's try this again.
It's an age-old story: Great defense beats great offense. Defense wins championships. The outcome is pre-ordained. But NOT SO FAST!
There is a reason they are a #11 seed and the last team in. They are not much of an offensive team, and we should match up well with them on the boards.
This looks like a fairly evenly-matched game. The computers and Vegas see this as a fairly even game. We are not playing the 2019 Final Final Four team. We are playing this year's 15-12 team.
Izzo is a Hall of Fame coach, and deservedly so. However, this is a winnable game.
I think it is a toss up. If we can hit open shots and make our FT's, we should be fine.
And pay no attention to all the talking head on TV. They will all pick the Big Ten, the big-name coach, and the "hot team", every time. We are quite capable of winning this game.
A lot of folks are intimidated by Michigan State. Hall of fame coach with a National Championship and 4 Final Fours. Three wins over three #1 seeds.
However, this is not your vintage Tom Izzo team. Their 8th-place finish in the Big Ten is the lowest in his tenure in East Lansing.
#11 is the lowest seed the Spartans have received in 33 previous NCAA tournament appearances. Their previous lowest was a No. 10 three times (1975, 2002 and 2011). MSU lost its first-round game each of those years.
This one isn't hopeless. Read on, McDuff.
METRICS
Line: Michigan State -2
ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 61% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 55% of the time.
538: UCLA wins 46% of the time.
Warren Nolan: UCLA wins 72-66.
---
Most of the computers like us, even if the bettors don't.
| Michigan State | UCLA | |
| NET | 70 | 46 |
| KenPom Rank | 56 | 44 |
| Sagarin Rank | 38 | 44 |
| SOS | 8 | 63 |
| Record | 15-12 | 17-9 |
Perhaps the thing that stands out most is the strength of schedule. Michigan State's stats were earned against a much tougher schedule than our. However, the other thing that stands out is their record.
MICHIGAN STATE'S RECORD
The Big Ten is a very tough league, but 15-12 is nothing to write home about.
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-6 | 3-3 | 8-0 | 4-0 |
| Oregon State | 5-10 | 4-2 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| UCLA away from home | 6-8 |
| Michigan St away from home | 3-9 |
Michigan State has 3 great wins over Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State. All three were at home. After from home, they haven't done as well.
Their best road wins are at Duke and Indiana. Their only neutral game result is an 11-point loss to Maryland in their only game in the Big Ten Tournament. FWIW, the loss was in Indianapolis.
They have lost 3 of their last 5 games. It is not as if they are coming in on a winning streak. (Of course, neither are we.) They have lost 6 of their last 7 away from home.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS MICHIGAN STATE'S DEFENSE
I am changing up the stats to match each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and MSU allows their opponents to shoot 42.5%.
Michigan State Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 32 | 26 |
| Torvick Rank | 34 | 28 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 70.6 | 72.8 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 153 | 320 |
| FG Percent | 42.5% | 46.2% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.5% | 36.7% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 19.6 | 18.1 |
| FT Percent | 71.5% | 72.1% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 21.4 | 18.6 |
| Assists Per Game | 13.3 | 13.6 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 10.6 | 11.2 |
This is clearly strength on strength. We are a very good offensive team. They are a very good defensive team.
We play slower than they do. We shoot high percentages. They allow low shooting percentages.
Their opponents have generally shot more 3's than we do, but that may be a result of our slow pace.
They give up quite a few free throws.
They do not create a lot of turnovers, and we don't commit a lot of them.
Overall, this looks like a pretty even matchup.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS MICHIGAN STATE'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Michigan State Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 86 | 98 |
| Torvick Rank | 85 | 101 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 68.5 | 69.0 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 320 | 153 |
| FG Percent | 43.9% | 42.4% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 35.1% | 32.0% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21.9 | 19.9 |
| FT Percent | 73.6% | 72.1% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 15.7 | 18.3 |
| Assists Per Game | 12.2 | 15.9 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 11.8 | 13.0 |
They play quite a bit faster than we do, but score fewer points (69.0 to our 72.8). We allow fewer points than they do (68.5 to 70.6), but you can attribute that to our slower pace.
And here we have weakness on weakness. We have a mediocre defense against a mediocre offense. Notably, we don't defend the 3 very well, but they don't shoot it very well.
We don't give up a ton of free throws. We may not play great defense, but we do play defense without fouling.
OTHER FACTORS
| Michigan State | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 26.7 | 25.2 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Assist Percentage | 64.1% | 51.6% |
| Blocks | 4.7 | 2.7 |
This is not a traditional Michigan State rebounding monster. In fact, we have a slightly better rebound margin.
Both teams have an offensive rebound percent of around 30%. (North Carolina leads the country at over 41%.)
Michigan State is REALLY good at sharing the ball. That 64% assist percentage is 5th best in the country. Is this an important stat? Of the top 20 teams in the country in assist percentage, only 3 are in the tournament, Iowa, Michigan State, and Utah State.
(Utah State is a GREAT passing team. If Cronin ever left, we should look closely at Craig Smith for our coach.)
We are 10-3 in close games. They are 5-2.
PLAYERS
Michigan State played twelve players quite a bit throughout the season, but they seem to have settled on a 9-man rotation. Marble doesn't seem to be playing much these days.
So expect to see 1 senior, 5 juniors, 2 sophomores, and a freshman.
According to one story, partway through the season, Izzo went with a smaller, more athletic lineup. There are a bunch of 6-5 to 6-9 guys, but they are not heavyweights. And of the guys who play the bulk of the minutes, there is only one guy over 6-7.
| Class | Size | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | Blocks | |
| Aaron Henry | Jr | 6-6 210 | 27 | 32 | 15 | 45% | 28% | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Joey Hauser | Jr | 6-9 220 | 27 | 22 | 10 | 47% | 34% | 6 | 2 | |
| Joshua Langford | Sr | 6-5 200 | 26 | 28 | 10 | 37% | 34% | 3 | 2 | |
| Rocket Watts | So | 6-2 185 | 26 | 22 | 8 | 34% | 26% | 2 | 3 | |
| Gabe Brown | Jr | 6-7 210 | 24 | 21 | 7 | 38% | 39% | 3 | 1 | |
| Malik Hall | So | 6-7 215 | 27 | 17 | 5 | 47% | 36% | 3 | 0 | |
| Julius Marble | So | 6-8 225 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 58% | 100% | 2 | 1 | |
| Marcus Bingham | Jr | 6-11 225 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 52% | 0% | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| AJ Hoggard | Fr | 6-3 220 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 31% | 18% | 2 | 0 | |
| Thomas Kithier | Jr | 6-8 230 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 65% | 0% | 3 | 1 |
The Spartans do most things by committee. On offense, nobody is good at everything. To the extent that they have a good outside shooter, it would be Brown and he isn't a good 2-point shooter. Henry, Hauser, and Hall are pretty good close to the basket, but only adequate from distance.
(Marble may look like a threat, but he doesn't play much and has only taken one 3-point shot all season.)
They need to play well together, because it doesn't look like anyone is going to beat you going one-on-one.
I am not going to try to make detailed comments on a bunch of players I haven't seen play, but I will go through the numbers.
Henry has been in double figures for 25 of their 27 games. He shoots a lot, but only 18% of his shots are 3's. He shoots 49% inside the arc, and 28% outside. It's pretty obvious how to play him. (I don't know if Izzo recruited him by promising he would get to play in the NCAA tournament. Did he really say, "Dance with me Henry"?)
Henry handles the ball quite a bit. He leads the team in assists and turnovers. He has a 1.2 A/TO ratio.
Hauser rarely scores more than 11 points. Around half his shots are 3's. He's the only guy who plays a lot over 6-7.
Langford has seen his scoring and shooting percent drop off quite a bit from last season. He is second on the team in shots taken. 42% of his shots are 3's, which isn't a shock because he has been terrible inside the arc.
Watts occasionally goes off. He has had 3 games over 20. OTOH, he has had a LOT more games where he hasn't been a factor. Against Maryland, he scored 3 points in 31 minutes. They haven't lost when he has been in double digits. He doesn't shoot the 3 that much, for good reason. He handles the ball quite a bit, but has a mediocre 1.8 A/TO ratio.
Gabe Brown is their best outside shooter, but at 39%, no one will mistake him for Downtown Freddy Brown. For one thing, he is not a high volume shooter. He takes fewer than 6 shots per game. Almost 60% of his shots are 3's.
CONCLUSION
It's an age-old story: Boy meets girl. Boy marries girl. Boy turns out to be creepy.... Sorry, my wife is watching a lot of Lifetime movies.
Let's try this again.
It's an age-old story: Great defense beats great offense. Defense wins championships. The outcome is pre-ordained. But NOT SO FAST!
There is a reason they are a #11 seed and the last team in. They are not much of an offensive team, and we should match up well with them on the boards.
This looks like a fairly evenly-matched game. The computers and Vegas see this as a fairly even game. We are not playing the 2019 Final Final Four team. We are playing this year's 15-12 team.
Izzo is a Hall of Fame coach, and deservedly so. However, this is a winnable game.
I think it is a toss up. If we can hit open shots and make our FT's, we should be fine.
And pay no attention to all the talking head on TV. They will all pick the Big Ten, the big-name coach, and the "hot team", every time. We are quite capable of winning this game.