Post by mhbruin on Mar 10, 2021 11:32:34 GMT -8
Oregon State may be the biggest surprise of the season in the Pac-12. Picked to finish 11th or 12th in the Pac-12, they finished tied for 6th. I think we are safely in the tournament field, no matter what happens, but Fuzzy won't sleep for 3 days if we lose this game.
So it would be best to just win and put all doubts to bed and let Fuzzy go to bed.
Don't let that 6th place finish fool you. I don't think this is the 6th best team in the league.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 75% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 71% of the time.
OREGON STATE'S RECORD
This is a Quad 3 game for UCLA.
What are we to make of a team with more Quad 1 wins than we have and yet five Quad 2 losses and 2 Quad 4 losses? Let's look at them.
The Quad 4 losses are two of the worst losses for any Pac-12 team. They are home losses to Wyoming and to 3-14 Portland. Portland is 326 in the NET. The NET only ranks 347 teams.
What about those wins? They beat Oregon playing without Duarte, Richardson, and Figueroa. They beat Stanford playing without da Silva and Zaire Williams.
Then there is the mystery. Somehow this team beat SC by 2 at home. I can't explain it.
The Quad 2 win? It was a 5-point win at Utah. That is their only "quality" road win. It's over the 8th place team in the Pac-12.
In January, we beat them by 5 on the road in game where we shot horribly. We shot 33% from the field and 25% on 3's. Is that because they are such a great defensive team? Not entirely.
Since neither team has played a lot of neutral court games, let's compare games away from home.
Neither team is a great road warrior.
The Beavers have won 3 of their last 4, all on the road. The wins were over Cal, a decimated Stanford team, and at Utah. They were soundly beaten by Oregon.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
The Beavers are a rare team. They play about as slowly as we do. This won't be a track meet.
Overall, we are the better offensive team. We shoot better, and we shoot the 3 quite a bit better. They shoot quite a few of them, but not as well as we do.
They are a little better at free throws and they get to the line a little more than we do.
They are a good passing team. They get a lot of assist and neither team turns the ball over a lot.
DEFENSE
I don't understand the efficiency ratings. They say UCLA has a better defense than Oregon State. But we are equal in over FG% defense, and they are really good at defending the 3. They also get more steals and blocks.
Yet, in spite of those nice defensive stats, they play a slow pace and still give up quite a few points.
Do we believe KenPom and Torvick and say our defense is better? Or do we believe the other stats and say our defenses are pretty even? Beats me!
OTHER FACTORS
We are a little better on the boards, but they are a pretty good offensive rebounding team. Or perhaps I should say they have 2 really good offensive rebounder in Warith Alitishe and Rodrigue tha Andala.
We are 10-2 in close games. Damned BLOBs!
They are 6-6 in close games. If the game is close, advantage UCLA.
PLAYERS
Oregon State is unique in that they typically play no freshmen. None. The play 3 seniors, 3 juniors, and 3 sophomores in their 9-man rotation.
The Beavers have three players who are 3-point threats, Lucas, Hunt, and Calloo. None of them are elite and all shoot better from the arc than inside the arc. The lesson is clear. Know who their shooters are and make them put it on the floor.
OTOH, their three bigs, Alatishe, Silva, and Andala are all inside players. None of them are threats from outside.
First-team All-Pac-12 player Ethan Thompson is their best player, but he is only an adequate shooter. He is also the primary ball handler, but has only a mediocre 1.6 A/TO ratio.
Lucas is considered their 3-point specialist. Almost 60% of his shots are from outside the arc. He has a quick release and will shoot the 3 off the dribble, but his shot selection isn't always great.
Nicholls State transfer Warith Alatishe has turned out to be a very good player. He is super athletic and very quick. He uses his quickness and leaping ability to be an excellent rebounder. Alatishe was Honorable Mention for the league's All-Defensive Team. He averages 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. That makes him 4th in the league in blocks.
Alatishe leads them in offensive rebounds by quite a bit. He is also their best shot blocker. He is 1 of 14 on the year from beyond the arc. Shoot the 3, Warith! If he can develop an outside shot, he will play in the NBA.
Zach Reichle is one of those seniors who seems like he has been playing in the Pac-12 for at least 10 years. He does a little bit of everything pretty well, but isn't great at anything. He doesn't look like a PG, but he is actually their best ball handler with a 2.8 to 1 A/TO ratio.
Roman Silva is 7-1, 265. He started the season deep on Wayne Tinkle's bench, but is now a starter. This isn't necessarily that he has played great. It is just that Tinkle doesn't have a better option. He's not quick or athletic, but plays within his limits. He is good for a few rebounds and a bit of inside scoring. (I originally wrote that "he is good for a few rounds", but honestly I have never been in a bar with him.)
Gianni Hunt is their backup PG, and he will get a lot of PT. He has scored 17 a couple of times this season, but there are a lot more games where he only makes 0 or 1 basket. He's a decent 3-point shooter, but less of a threat inside the arc. He's got a 1.7 to 1 A/TO ratio. The best I can say about that is he has a better ratio than Ethan Thompson.
JUCO Calloo is another good 3-point shooter.
Another JUCO is Rodrigue tha Andela, who is not related to Zorba the Greek or Alexander the Great or Ivan the Terrible. He's not terribly skilled, however he is athletic and is a decent player off the bench who seems bigger than his 6-6 size. He is a good rebounder, and is a threat on the offensive boards.
Dearon Tucker plays.
CONCLUSION
Overall, we are better on offense, we are at least equal on defense, and we are a bit better on the boards. We have better talent, and I suspect we have better coaching. We are favored for a reason.
The only reason they finished this high in the Pac-12 is that they were very fortunate to play some of the best teams without their stars.
We beat them by 5 on their home court when we played one of our worst offensive games of the year. We scored 57 points, for our 2nd lowest output of the year. (The worst was the first SC game without Riley or Hill.) Our 33% from the field was our worst shooting night of the year. Only our performance in the first SC game was worse than our 25% from the arc . In other words, we had a terrible offensive game.
Was that great Oregon State defense? In part. However we also played a bad game.
I think Tinkle has done a really good job with three good players and a bunch of guys who should be playing at a mid-major.
Having said all those nasty things about them, they did beat SC. However, that is their one impressive win. They haven't won against anyone nearly as good as us away from Gill Coliseum.
Just remember, in our first meeting we couldn't find the basket. They were playing at home. We still won.
Do they have 2 surprising wins in them this season? I hope not. I don't think so.
So it would be best to just win and put all doubts to bed and let Fuzzy go to bed.
Don't let that 6th place finish fool you. I don't think this is the 6th best team in the league.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 75% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 71% of the time.
| Oregon St | UCLA | |
| NET | 106 | 41 |
| KenPom Rank | 101 | 42 |
| Sagarin Rank | 96 | 36 |
| SOS | 70 | 58 |
| Record | 13-12 | 17-8 |
OREGON STATE'S RECORD
This is a Quad 3 game for UCLA.
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-6 | 3-2 | 8-0 | 4-0 |
| Oregon State | 3-5 | 1-5 | 4-0 | 5-2 |
What are we to make of a team with more Quad 1 wins than we have and yet five Quad 2 losses and 2 Quad 4 losses? Let's look at them.
The Quad 4 losses are two of the worst losses for any Pac-12 team. They are home losses to Wyoming and to 3-14 Portland. Portland is 326 in the NET. The NET only ranks 347 teams.
What about those wins? They beat Oregon playing without Duarte, Richardson, and Figueroa. They beat Stanford playing without da Silva and Zaire Williams.
Then there is the mystery. Somehow this team beat SC by 2 at home. I can't explain it.
The Quad 2 win? It was a 5-point win at Utah. That is their only "quality" road win. It's over the 8th place team in the Pac-12.
In January, we beat them by 5 on the road in game where we shot horribly. We shot 33% from the field and 25% on 3's. Is that because they are such a great defensive team? Not entirely.
Since neither team has played a lot of neutral court games, let's compare games away from home.
| UCLA away from home | 6-7 |
| Oregon St away from home | 4-6 |
Neither team is a great road warrior.
The Beavers have won 3 of their last 4, all on the road. The wins were over Cal, a decimated Stanford team, and at Utah. They were soundly beaten by Oregon.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| Oregon State | UCLA | |||
| KP Off Efficiency Rank | 87 | 21 | ||
| Torvick Off Efficiency Rank | 85 | 26 | ||
| Scoring Offense | 9 | 70.0 | 6 | 72.6 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 312 | 326 | ||
| FG Attempts | 9 | 56.8 | 8 | 56.9 |
| FG Percent | 9 | 43.1% | 5 | 46.3% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 8 | 34.2% | 2 | 37.3% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 7 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| FT Percent | 3 | 76.0% | 6 | 72.0% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 5 | 18.9 | 8 | 18.4 |
| Assists Per Game | 3 | 14.7 | 5 | 13.8 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 4 | 11.3 | 2 | 11.0 |
The Beavers are a rare team. They play about as slowly as we do. This won't be a track meet.
Overall, we are the better offensive team. We shoot better, and we shoot the 3 quite a bit better. They shoot quite a few of them, but not as well as we do.
They are a little better at free throws and they get to the line a little more than we do.
They are a good passing team. They get a lot of assist and neither team turns the ball over a lot.
DEFENSE
| Oregon State | UCLA | |||
| KP Defensive Efficiency Rank | 124 | 86 | ||
| Torvick Def Efficiency Rank | 129 | 84 | ||
| Scoring Defense | 7 | 68.1 | 6 | 67.9 |
| FG Percent Defense | 7 | 43.9% | 8 | 43.9% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 1 | 31.2% | 9 | 34.9% |
| Steals Per Game | 4 | 6.2 | 10 | 5.1 |
| Blocks Per Game | 7 | 3.5 | 11 | 2.6 |
I don't understand the efficiency ratings. They say UCLA has a better defense than Oregon State. But we are equal in over FG% defense, and they are really good at defending the 3. They also get more steals and blocks.
Yet, in spite of those nice defensive stats, they play a slow pace and still give up quite a few points.
Do we believe KenPom and Torvick and say our defense is better? Or do we believe the other stats and say our defenses are pretty even? Beats me!
OTHER FACTORS
| Oregon State | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 7 | 0.4 | 3 | 4.2 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 4 | 10.4 | 5 | 9.7 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 9 | 23.5 | 6 | 25.0 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 8 | 1.1 | 3 | 1.3 |
We are a little better on the boards, but they are a pretty good offensive rebounding team. Or perhaps I should say they have 2 really good offensive rebounder in Warith Alitishe and Rodrigue tha Andala.
We are 10-2 in close games. Damned BLOBs!
They are 6-6 in close games. If the game is close, advantage UCLA.
PLAYERS
Oregon State is unique in that they typically play no freshmen. None. The play 3 seniors, 3 juniors, and 3 sophomores in their 9-man rotation.
| Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | ||
| Ethan Thompson | Sr | 26 | 33 | 16 | 41% | 32% | 3 | 4 |
| Jarod Lucas | So | 26 | 29 | 13 | 38% | 39% | 2 | 1 |
| Warith Alatishe | Jr | 26 | 27 | 9 | 51% | 7% | 8 | 1 |
| Zach Reichle | Sr | 26 | 26 | 7 | 40% | 30% | 3 | 3 |
| Gianni Hunt | So | 24 | 20 | 6 | 38% | 39% | 2 | 3 |
| Roman Silva | Sr | 24 | 15 | 6 | 65% | 0% | 3 | 0 |
| Maurice Calloo | Jr | 26 | 16 | 5 | 34% | 38% | 2 | 1 |
| Rodrigue tha Andala | Jr | 26 | 13 | 4 | 52% | 0% | 4 | 0 |
| Dearon Tucker | So | 24 | 11 | 3 | 33% | 22% | 2 | 0 |
The Beavers have three players who are 3-point threats, Lucas, Hunt, and Calloo. None of them are elite and all shoot better from the arc than inside the arc. The lesson is clear. Know who their shooters are and make them put it on the floor.
OTOH, their three bigs, Alatishe, Silva, and Andala are all inside players. None of them are threats from outside.
First-team All-Pac-12 player Ethan Thompson is their best player, but he is only an adequate shooter. He is also the primary ball handler, but has only a mediocre 1.6 A/TO ratio.
Lucas is considered their 3-point specialist. Almost 60% of his shots are from outside the arc. He has a quick release and will shoot the 3 off the dribble, but his shot selection isn't always great.
Nicholls State transfer Warith Alatishe has turned out to be a very good player. He is super athletic and very quick. He uses his quickness and leaping ability to be an excellent rebounder. Alatishe was Honorable Mention for the league's All-Defensive Team. He averages 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. That makes him 4th in the league in blocks.
Alatishe leads them in offensive rebounds by quite a bit. He is also their best shot blocker. He is 1 of 14 on the year from beyond the arc. Shoot the 3, Warith! If he can develop an outside shot, he will play in the NBA.
Zach Reichle is one of those seniors who seems like he has been playing in the Pac-12 for at least 10 years. He does a little bit of everything pretty well, but isn't great at anything. He doesn't look like a PG, but he is actually their best ball handler with a 2.8 to 1 A/TO ratio.
Roman Silva is 7-1, 265. He started the season deep on Wayne Tinkle's bench, but is now a starter. This isn't necessarily that he has played great. It is just that Tinkle doesn't have a better option. He's not quick or athletic, but plays within his limits. He is good for a few rebounds and a bit of inside scoring. (I originally wrote that "he is good for a few rounds", but honestly I have never been in a bar with him.)
Gianni Hunt is their backup PG, and he will get a lot of PT. He has scored 17 a couple of times this season, but there are a lot more games where he only makes 0 or 1 basket. He's a decent 3-point shooter, but less of a threat inside the arc. He's got a 1.7 to 1 A/TO ratio. The best I can say about that is he has a better ratio than Ethan Thompson.
JUCO Calloo is another good 3-point shooter.
Another JUCO is Rodrigue tha Andela, who is not related to Zorba the Greek or Alexander the Great or Ivan the Terrible. He's not terribly skilled, however he is athletic and is a decent player off the bench who seems bigger than his 6-6 size. He is a good rebounder, and is a threat on the offensive boards.
Dearon Tucker plays.
CONCLUSION
Overall, we are better on offense, we are at least equal on defense, and we are a bit better on the boards. We have better talent, and I suspect we have better coaching. We are favored for a reason.
The only reason they finished this high in the Pac-12 is that they were very fortunate to play some of the best teams without their stars.
We beat them by 5 on their home court when we played one of our worst offensive games of the year. We scored 57 points, for our 2nd lowest output of the year. (The worst was the first SC game without Riley or Hill.) Our 33% from the field was our worst shooting night of the year. Only our performance in the first SC game was worse than our 25% from the arc . In other words, we had a terrible offensive game.
Was that great Oregon State defense? In part. However we also played a bad game.
I think Tinkle has done a really good job with three good players and a bunch of guys who should be playing at a mid-major.
Having said all those nasty things about them, they did beat SC. However, that is their one impressive win. They haven't won against anyone nearly as good as us away from Gill Coliseum.
Just remember, in our first meeting we couldn't find the basket. They were playing at home. We still won.
Do they have 2 surprising wins in them this season? I hope not. I don't think so.