Post by mhbruin on Mar 10, 2021 11:04:50 GMT -8
Here are a bunch of profiles and who is projected in. Of course, the projections are guesses. We won't know for sure until Sunday.
I have included Torvick to have a computer model to compare with 2 humans.
The humans agree on every team that is in or out, if not on the seeding. Torvick picks 2 teams differently.
The humans have Xavier and Wichita State in. Torvick has Mississippi and Syracuse in.
Here's the BIG QUESTION: Suppose UCLA loses to Oregon State. If that puts UCLA's tournament bid in question, who would you put in to replace the Bruins? Who would have a better profile? I don't see anyone.
Syracuse, Mississippi, Utah State, Memphis, Seton Hall, and St. John's. Could any of them make a big run and challenge us for a bid? Seton Hall and St. John's play each other in their first Big East tournament game, and that would effectively kill any chances for one of them.
Here are some observations:
1) Every team with a clean record in Quads 3 and 4 seems to be in. That makes the Oregon State game which is a Quad 3 game seem even more important.
2) Does number of Quad 1 and 2 wins matter? Michigan State has 8 and is in. Same for VCU. But Mississippi with 8 may not make it.
3) Quad 1 wins? Michigan State is in with 4. Seton Hall is out with 3 and Mississippi could be out with 3.
4) Zero Quad 1 wins seems to kick you out. Memphis and SMU.
4) A Quad 4 loss doesn't disqualify you, although Boise State is hanging on by a thread. But combine a Quad 4 loss with a Quad 3 loss and St John's seems to be out.
5) I think a combination of win percent and strength of schedule gets you in. If your SOS is Top 100 and you have a win percent of 65% or better you get in. Syracuse and SMU are the exceptions. I think Syracuse's 1-6 record in Quad 1 games really hurts them and they are still on the bubble. SMU gets knocked out by the Zero Quad 1 Wins rule.
I have included Torvick to have a computer model to compare with 2 humans.
The humans agree on every team that is in or out, if not on the seeding. Torvick picks 2 teams differently.
The humans have Xavier and Wichita State in. Torvick has Mississippi and Syracuse in.
Here's the BIG QUESTION: Suppose UCLA loses to Oregon State. If that puts UCLA's tournament bid in question, who would you put in to replace the Bruins? Who would have a better profile? I don't see anyone.
Syracuse, Mississippi, Utah State, Memphis, Seton Hall, and St. John's. Could any of them make a big run and challenge us for a bid? Seton Hall and St. John's play each other in their first Big East tournament game, and that would effectively kill any chances for one of them.
| Record | KenPom | NET | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | Lunardi | Palm | Torvick | ||
| St. Bonaventure | 15-4 | 79% | 27 | 31 | 93 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 4-0 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Georgia Tech | 15-8 | 65% | 31 | 28 | 48 | 2-6 | 6-0 | 3-2 | 3-0 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| North Carolina | 16-9 | 64% | 32 | 45 | 31 | 2-8 | 6-0 | 4-1 | 3-0 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Memphis | 15-7 | 69% | 55 | 40 | 109 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 6-1 | 5-0 | First 4 Out | Out | Out |
| UCLA | 17-8 | 68% | 42 | 42 | 84 | 2-5 | 3-2 | 8-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| VCU | 19-6 | 76% | 43 | 35 | 86 | 1-4 | 7-0 | 4-2 | 5-0 | 11 | 12-Last 4 In | 10 |
| Utah State | 18-7 | 72% | 44 | 47 | 134 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5-2 | 7-0 | First Team Out | First 4 Out | Next 4 Out |
| Saint Louis | 14-6 | 70% | 49 | 43 | 115 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 6-0 | First 4 Out | First 4 Out | First Team Out |
| Mississippi | 15-10 | 60% | 50 | 57 | 70 | 3-4 | 5-4 | 1-2 | 5-0 | Next 4 Out | First 4 Out | 12-Last 4 In |
| Syracuse | 15-8 | 65% | 51 | 51 | 58 | 1-6 | 4-1 | 7-1 | 4-0 | First 4 Out | First 4 Out | 12-Last 4 In |
| Louisville | 13-6 | 68% | 52 | 50 | 9 | 1-4 | 6-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Seton Hall | 13-12 | 52% | 53 | 56 | 24 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 6-1 | 1-0 | Next 4 Out | Out | First 4 Out |
| SMU | 11-4 | 73% | 54 | 54 | 94 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Next 4 Out | Out | Next 4 Out |
| Drake | 25-4 | 86% | 55 | 41 | 124 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 6-2 | 11-0 | 12 - Last 4 In | 12-Last 4 In | 11-Last 4 In |
| Michigan State | 15-11 | 57% | 56 | 72 | 5 | 4-8 | 4-2 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Boise State | 18-7 | 72% | 57 | 44 | 125 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4-0 | 9-1 | 12 - Last 4 In | 12-Last 4 In | 11 |
| Xavier | 13-7 | 65% | 60 | 53 | 62 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 12 - Last Team In | 12-Last 4 In | Next 4 Out |
| Colorado State | 17-5 | 77% | 61 | 50 | 149 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 10-0 | 12-Last 4 In | 11 | 11-Last 4 In |
| St. John's | 16-10 | 61% | 63 | 69 | 59 | 2-6 | 3-2 | 5-1 | 5-1 | Next 4 Out | Out | First 4 Out |
| Wichita State | 15-4 | 78% | 72 | 62 | 73 | 2-3 | 2-1 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 9 | First 4 Out |
Here are some observations:
1) Every team with a clean record in Quads 3 and 4 seems to be in. That makes the Oregon State game which is a Quad 3 game seem even more important.
2) Does number of Quad 1 and 2 wins matter? Michigan State has 8 and is in. Same for VCU. But Mississippi with 8 may not make it.
3) Quad 1 wins? Michigan State is in with 4. Seton Hall is out with 3 and Mississippi could be out with 3.
4) Zero Quad 1 wins seems to kick you out. Memphis and SMU.
4) A Quad 4 loss doesn't disqualify you, although Boise State is hanging on by a thread. But combine a Quad 4 loss with a Quad 3 loss and St John's seems to be out.
5) I think a combination of win percent and strength of schedule gets you in. If your SOS is Top 100 and you have a win percent of 65% or better you get in. Syracuse and SMU are the exceptions. I think Syracuse's 1-6 record in Quad 1 games really hurts them and they are still on the bubble. SMU gets knocked out by the Zero Quad 1 Wins rule.