Post by mhbruin on Mar 5, 2021 11:36:40 GMT -8
Now comes the game for none of the marbles. The only good thing about losing to Oregon is that it continues SC's streak of not winning the Pac-12 (assuming the Ducks beat Oregon State which is likely, but not a sure thing).
However, it is for a lot of bragging rights and it is still SC. Or is it JustSC?
METRICS
Line: USC -1½
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 43% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 42% of the time.
The computers like SC a lot. However, they also think this is the most likely win of the last 3. I tend to agree.
Easiest is not the same as easy.
USC'S RECORD
This is a Quad 1 game for UCLA both teams.
USC's best win is over BYU. BYU is a good team, that will be around a #6 seed in the tournament.
Their other two Quad 1 wins are at Arizona and Stanford. They also have a solid win over Oregon.
Or course, they blew us out a month ago, when we started Nwuba.
OTOH, they have lost at Utah, at Oregon State, and at home to Arizona.
After a 7-game winning streak, they have lost 3 of their last 5.
SC has benefitted from few schedule interruptions. Since Christmas they have had 2 games postponed. It doesn't look like they have missed any practices.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
Neither team plays that fast, but they play faster than we do. Almost everyone plays faster than we do. Maryland calls themselves turtles (Terrapins), and they play faster than we do.
They are a good offensive team. We are a little better. One advantage is that we shoot the 3 better.
If they have an Achilles Heel, it if firmly planted on the free throw line. They are a bad free-throw shooting team and they get to the line quite a bit.
DEFENSE
They have a terrific defense. With their great shot blocking, they can afford to pressure players on the outside, knowing that if they get beat the Mobleys are hanging around inside, to clean up. However, the fact that Riley (and everyone else) can hit the mid-range shot means we can pull them away from the rim a bit.
Our best hope for attacking is to shoot 3's. We are good at it, and they are not great at defending it. If you have the shot Bruins, take it.
The worst thing we can do is pass up an open 3 to drive into the lane. Tall men with long arms are waiting.
OTHER FACTORS
No boards, no rings. Not that we get rings for beating SC, but you get the point. If we are to have a chance, we need to rebound, particularly our defensive board. They live on their offensive glass.
We are 10-1 in close games. Damned Stanford loss!
They are 3-2 in close games. If the game is close, advantage UCLA.
PLAYERS
Enfield will play 9 players, and 7 of them are very good. He has benefitted from having few players miss games. He has likely had fewer players miss games than any other Pac-12.
As I am sure you have heard many times, SC is the tallest team in college basketball.
The Mobleys get the ink, but this team will go as far as Tahj Eaddy, Drew Peterson, and Ethan Anderson take them.
Evan Mobley is tall and thin, but he is not a post-up player. He likes to get the ball away from the basket and work from there. He is very effective at it. Most people think he doesn't get the ball enough. He (and his brother) are very good rebounders. He will shoot the occasional 3. He can make it, but you would rather he shoots the 3 than anything else.
Tahj Eaddy is an All-Pac-12 level player. The Santa Clara transfer has been much better at SC than his stats at Santa Clara would have ever led you to believe. He can create his own shot and is excellent from the arc. He is very hard to guard.
Drew Peterson has some very good games. He has been in double figures 12 times. Other nights he disappears. He is more dangerous shooting 3's.
SC doesn't really run anything for Isaiah Mobley. He get his points on offensive rebounds and by rolling to the hoop when someone else penetrates. He is very good on the boards.
Isaiah White usually starts, but doesn't play starter minutes. He does everything pretty well, but isn't a huge threat. For some reason, he only played 9 minutes in their last game.
Ethan Anderson is their best PG. He scored 19 against us, but that is far from typical. His is capable of scoring, but normally isn't a huge threat. He is their best 3-point shooter, and we would rather he shoots 2's than 3's.
Chavez Goodwin is a very good backup for the Mobleys. Not only is he the best backup center in the Pac-12, but he would likely be starting on quite a few Pac-12 teams. Unlike the Mobleys, who can drift, he is a true post player, who likes to bang around the basket.
Noah Baumann was brought in as a 3-point shooting specialist. His 34% is respectable, but not what they were hoping for. 72% of his shots are 3's, so he is mostly a one-trick Trojan.
Finally there is Max Agbonkpolo, who Andy Enfield seems to like to play for some strange reason. He's a poor shooter, he turns the ball over, but he does get a few rebounds. However, I don't think they need rebounding. He may score, but there is no one else in the rotation who I would rather see take a shot.
Everyone except Goowin can make a 3, but there are only two consistently dangerous outside shooters, Eaddy and Anderson. We need to pay a lot of attention to them out the outside.
CONCLUSION
You may think that because they blew us out a month ago, we have little chance or we match up poorly with them. If we start Nwuba again, you are probably right. I also don't think we have much chance if we shoot 15% from the arc again. I don't expect either of those to be true.
SC can beat most teams, and they are capable of blowing teams out. OTOH, they can also lose to a decent team. We are better than a decent team.
We have a solid chance to win this game, particularly at home.
They definitely present problems. The big ones are their great defense and rebounding.
However, we have a few advantages, namely 3-point shooting, their terrible FT shooting, and our ability to win close games.
We have another factor working in our favor. I don't think Andy Enfield is a particularly good coach. I think his teams underperform their talent. If the game comes down to coaching, I like our chances.
The computers and Vegas see this as a game where they are slight favorites, but hardly prohibitive. I see no reason to argue with them.
However, it is for a lot of bragging rights and it is still SC. Or is it JustSC?
METRICS
Line: USC -1½
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 43% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 42% of the time.
| USC | UCLA | |
| NET | 17 | 42 |
| KenPom Rank | 16 | 44 |
| Sagarin Rank | 24 | 38 |
| SOS | 72 | 62 |
| Record | 20-6 | 17-7 |
The computers like SC a lot. However, they also think this is the most likely win of the last 3. I tend to agree.
Easiest is not the same as easy.
USC'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-5 | 3-2 | 8-0 | 4-0 |
| USC | 3-3 | 5-3 | 9-0 | 3-0 |
This is a Quad 1 game for UCLA both teams.
| UCLA at home | 11-0 |
| USC on the road | 6-3 |
USC's best win is over BYU. BYU is a good team, that will be around a #6 seed in the tournament.
Their other two Quad 1 wins are at Arizona and Stanford. They also have a solid win over Oregon.
Or course, they blew us out a month ago, when we started Nwuba.
OTOH, they have lost at Utah, at Oregon State, and at home to Arizona.
After a 7-game winning streak, they have lost 3 of their last 5.
SC has benefitted from few schedule interruptions. Since Christmas they have had 2 games postponed. It doesn't look like they have missed any practices.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| USC | UCLA | |||
| KP Off Efficiency Rank | 28 | 19 | ||
| Torvick Off Efficiency Rank | 26 | 23 | ||
| Scoring Offense | 3 | 74.7 | 6 | 73.0 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 214 | 325 | ||
| FG Attempts | 2 | 58.5 | 6 | 57.1 |
| FG Percent | 2 | 46.5% | 4 | 46.2% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 5 | 34.7% | 2 | 36.9% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 9 | 18 | 9 | 18 |
| FT Percent | 12 | 64.9% | 6 | 72.4% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 2 | 21,6 | 7 | 18.6 |
| Assists Per Game | 4 | 14.0 | 5 | 13.9 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 8 | 12.7 | 2 | 11.1 |
Neither team plays that fast, but they play faster than we do. Almost everyone plays faster than we do. Maryland calls themselves turtles (Terrapins), and they play faster than we do.
They are a good offensive team. We are a little better. One advantage is that we shoot the 3 better.
If they have an Achilles Heel, it if firmly planted on the free throw line. They are a bad free-throw shooting team and they get to the line quite a bit.
DEFENSE
| USC | UCLA | |||
| KP Defensive Efficiency Rank | 15 | 92 | ||
| Torvick Def Efficiency Rank | 16 | 90 | ||
| Scoring Defense | 2 | 65.0 | 5 | 68.1 |
| FG Percent Defense | 1 | 39.3% | 8 | 43.8% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 7 | 33.7% | 9 | 35.2% |
| Steals Per Game | 11 | 4.9 | 10 | 5.2 |
| Blocks Per Game | 1 | 5.2 | 11 | 2.5 |
They have a terrific defense. With their great shot blocking, they can afford to pressure players on the outside, knowing that if they get beat the Mobleys are hanging around inside, to clean up. However, the fact that Riley (and everyone else) can hit the mid-range shot means we can pull them away from the rim a bit.
Our best hope for attacking is to shoot 3's. We are good at it, and they are not great at defending it. If you have the shot Bruins, take it.
The worst thing we can do is pass up an open 3 to drive into the lane. Tall men with long arms are waiting.
OTHER FACTORS
| USC | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 2 | 7.7 | 3 | 4.7 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 1 | 12.8 | 5 | 9.9 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 1 | 27.4 | 6 | 25.2 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 8 | 1.1 | 3 | 1.3 |
No boards, no rings. Not that we get rings for beating SC, but you get the point. If we are to have a chance, we need to rebound, particularly our defensive board. They live on their offensive glass.
We are 10-1 in close games. Damned Stanford loss!
They are 3-2 in close games. If the game is close, advantage UCLA.
PLAYERS
Enfield will play 9 players, and 7 of them are very good. He has benefitted from having few players miss games. He has likely had fewer players miss games than any other Pac-12.
As I am sure you have heard many times, SC is the tallest team in college basketball.
| Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | ||
| Evan Mobley | Fr | 26 | 34 | 16 | 58% | 30% | 9 | 2 |
| Tahj Eaddy | Sr | 26 | 32 | 14 | 46% | 40% | 3 | 3 |
| Drew Peterson | Jr | 26 | 29 | 10 | 42% | 37% | 5 | 3 |
| Isaiah Mobley | So | 25 | 27 | 9 | 45% | 29% | 8 | 2 |
| Isaiah White | Sr | 26 | 21 | 7 | 46% | 32% | 4 | 1 |
| Ethan Anderson | So | 18 | 21 | 6 | 37% | 44% | 2 | 3 |
| Chavez Goodwin | Sr | 26 | 15 | 6 | 54% | 0% | 4 | 1 |
| Noah Baumann | Jr | 25 | 13 | 4 | 42% | 34% | 1 | 0 |
| Max Agbonkpolo | So | 26 | 17 | 4 | 33% | 22% | 3 | 1 |
The Mobleys get the ink, but this team will go as far as Tahj Eaddy, Drew Peterson, and Ethan Anderson take them.
Evan Mobley is tall and thin, but he is not a post-up player. He likes to get the ball away from the basket and work from there. He is very effective at it. Most people think he doesn't get the ball enough. He (and his brother) are very good rebounders. He will shoot the occasional 3. He can make it, but you would rather he shoots the 3 than anything else.
Tahj Eaddy is an All-Pac-12 level player. The Santa Clara transfer has been much better at SC than his stats at Santa Clara would have ever led you to believe. He can create his own shot and is excellent from the arc. He is very hard to guard.
Drew Peterson has some very good games. He has been in double figures 12 times. Other nights he disappears. He is more dangerous shooting 3's.
SC doesn't really run anything for Isaiah Mobley. He get his points on offensive rebounds and by rolling to the hoop when someone else penetrates. He is very good on the boards.
Isaiah White usually starts, but doesn't play starter minutes. He does everything pretty well, but isn't a huge threat. For some reason, he only played 9 minutes in their last game.
Ethan Anderson is their best PG. He scored 19 against us, but that is far from typical. His is capable of scoring, but normally isn't a huge threat. He is their best 3-point shooter, and we would rather he shoots 2's than 3's.
Chavez Goodwin is a very good backup for the Mobleys. Not only is he the best backup center in the Pac-12, but he would likely be starting on quite a few Pac-12 teams. Unlike the Mobleys, who can drift, he is a true post player, who likes to bang around the basket.
Noah Baumann was brought in as a 3-point shooting specialist. His 34% is respectable, but not what they were hoping for. 72% of his shots are 3's, so he is mostly a one-trick Trojan.
Finally there is Max Agbonkpolo, who Andy Enfield seems to like to play for some strange reason. He's a poor shooter, he turns the ball over, but he does get a few rebounds. However, I don't think they need rebounding. He may score, but there is no one else in the rotation who I would rather see take a shot.
Everyone except Goowin can make a 3, but there are only two consistently dangerous outside shooters, Eaddy and Anderson. We need to pay a lot of attention to them out the outside.
CONCLUSION
You may think that because they blew us out a month ago, we have little chance or we match up poorly with them. If we start Nwuba again, you are probably right. I also don't think we have much chance if we shoot 15% from the arc again. I don't expect either of those to be true.
SC can beat most teams, and they are capable of blowing teams out. OTOH, they can also lose to a decent team. We are better than a decent team.
We have a solid chance to win this game, particularly at home.
They definitely present problems. The big ones are their great defense and rebounding.
However, we have a few advantages, namely 3-point shooting, their terrible FT shooting, and our ability to win close games.
We have another factor working in our favor. I don't think Andy Enfield is a particularly good coach. I think his teams underperform their talent. If the game comes down to coaching, I like our chances.
The computers and Vegas see this as a game where they are slight favorites, but hardly prohibitive. I see no reason to argue with them.