Post by mhbruin on Mar 2, 2021 12:29:22 GMT -8
Dana Altman has had only one of his current starters play every game. He lost starting center N'Faly Dante early in the season. Most of his rotation players weren't even on the team last year. He has missed a ton of practice time.
Yet the Ducks are again in the hunt for the Pac-12 championship. He's a great coach.
However, that's not the entire story. He has a team loaded with upperclassmen, and arguably the most talent in the Pac-12.
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I would take Oregon's stats with a grain of skepticism. They haven't had their full roster for much of the season. They do now (minus Dante). They are likely better than the stats indicate.
METRICS
Line: Oregon -3.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 35% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 42% of the time.
The computers think Oregon is a little better than we are.
OREGON'S RECORD
This is a Quad 1 game for UCLA and a Quad 2 game for Colorado.
Oregon is hot, winning 11 out of their last 12 games. Their only loss during that period was at SC.
One of their two "bad" losses was to Oregon State, but that is understandable. Duarte didn't play.
They have one surprising loss was home to WSU. That is the only blemish on a very good record.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
Neither team plays that fast, but they play faster than we do. Almost everyone plays faster than we do. (BTW, the slowest team in the country is Virginia.)
There isn't a lot to separate the two teams on offense. They rely more on the 3 than we do, but they shoot it well.
Although Richardson will drive to the hoop occasionally, they are more likely to post up Omoruyi or shoot from outside.
I would conclude that we are pretty even on offense.
DEFENSE
They have a very good offense. We don't have a very good defense. This is not a formula for success.
Oregon will press at times, and that plays a big role in their leading the league in steals. We are very good in not turning the ball over.
Our 3-point defense will be a concern. They will shoot a lot of them.
Unlike other recent Oregon teams, the Ducks don't have a single dominant shot-blocker, at least since Dante went down for the season. However, they have a lot of athletes and block quite a few shots.
OTHER FACTORS
We should have a modest edge on the boards.
This will be their 7th game in 13 days. Their starters play a lot of minutes. That could take a toll on them.
We are 10-1 in close games. They are 6-1. If the game is close, it should be interesting.
PLAYERS
Altman will play 10 players, but he relies heavily on his five starters. But they are a terrific five starters.
Oregon has a pretty weak bench, but they have the best starting five in the Pac-12.
It all starts with Duarte and Omoruyi. They will both be playing in the NBA next season.
Duarte is a legitimate Pac-12 POY candidate. He is Oregon's best 2-point shooter and best 3-point shooter. He is a matchup nightmare.
Omoruyi is a future pro. He is a load under the basket and can consistently hit from outside.
Figueroa wasn't too impressive early in the year, but he is turning into a very solid 3rd option. He is also their best rebounder.
You won't tend to notice Williams too much, but he quietly does everything well.
I thought Will Richardson was going to be their best player. He led the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting last season and he is lightning quick. Somehow the injuries have set him back.
Once you get to the bench, things drop off a lot. Don't expect to see these guys play much if the game is close.
If you watched Arizona play the Ducks, you heard that Chandler Lawson has long arms. And you heard it again. And again. He started when other players were out, but there is nothing distinguishing about him.
Hardy gives the backcourt starters some rest.
Terry is a Top 100 PG recruit. He didn't play against Arizona and might not against us.
Kepnang is big, athletic, and very raw. He re-classified and joined them mid-season after Dante got injured. He can dunk.
CONCLUSION
We are up against a great coach, with great talent, on the road. To quote Gimli, "Certainty of death. Small chance of success. What are we waiting for?"
They play better defense. We are a little better on the boards.
At time, Oregon looks like they could play with Gonzaga. At other times, they can't seem to find the hoop. (With that obscene floor they play on, getting disoriented isn't that surprising.)
If this were earlier in the season, I would rate this game a tossup. If the game were in Pauley, I would rate the game a tossup.
However, this game is in March in Eugene. I think we will play better than we did in Boulder. However, I am not optimistic.
Yet the Ducks are again in the hunt for the Pac-12 championship. He's a great coach.
However, that's not the entire story. He has a team loaded with upperclassmen, and arguably the most talent in the Pac-12.
------------
I would take Oregon's stats with a grain of skepticism. They haven't had their full roster for much of the season. They do now (minus Dante). They are likely better than the stats indicate.
METRICS
Line: Oregon -3.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 35% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 42% of the time.
Oregon | UCLA | |
NET | 36 | 39 |
KenPom Rank | 39 | 44 |
Sagarin Rank | 35 | 37 |
SOS | 78 | 66 |
Record | 17-5 | 17-6 |
The computers think Oregon is a little better than we are.
OREGON'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-4 | 3-2 | 8-0 | 4-0 |
Oregon | 3-3 | 5-0 | 5-2 | 4-0 |
This is a Quad 1 game for UCLA and a Quad 2 game for Colorado.
UCLA on the Road | 5-5 |
Oregon at Home | 10-2 |
Oregon is hot, winning 11 out of their last 12 games. Their only loss during that period was at SC.
One of their two "bad" losses was to Oregon State, but that is understandable. Duarte didn't play.
They have one surprising loss was home to WSU. That is the only blemish on a very good record.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
Oregon | UCLA | |||
KP Off Efficiency Rank | 26 | 21 | ||
Torvick Off Efficiency Rank | 38 | 24 | ||
Scoring Offense | 5 | 73.5 | 6 | 73.0 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 234 | 325 | ||
FG Attempts | 2 | 59.1 | 6 | 57.2 |
FG Percent | 3 | 46.0% | 4 | 45.8% |
3-Pt Percent | 4 | 36,4% | 2 | 37.0% |
3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 3 | 22 | 9 | 18 |
FT Percent | 8 | 71.2% | 6 | 72.2% |
FT Attempts Per Game | 10 | 15.5 | 7 | 19.1 |
Assists Per Game | 8 | 13.1 | 4 | 13.8 |
Fewest Turnovers | 5 | 11.4 | 2 | 11.0 |
Neither team plays that fast, but they play faster than we do. Almost everyone plays faster than we do. (BTW, the slowest team in the country is Virginia.)
There isn't a lot to separate the two teams on offense. They rely more on the 3 than we do, but they shoot it well.
Although Richardson will drive to the hoop occasionally, they are more likely to post up Omoruyi or shoot from outside.
I would conclude that we are pretty even on offense.
DEFENSE
Oregon | UCLA | |||
KP Defensive Efficiency Rank | 62 | 78 | ||
Torvick Def Efficiency Rank | 38 | 86 | ||
Scoring Defense | 3 | 66.4 | 4 | 67.5 |
FG Percent Defense | 5 | 42.2% | 8 | 43.1% |
3-Pt Percent Defense | 5 | 33.0% | 9 | 34.8% |
Steals Per Game | 1 | 7.5 | 10 | 5.3 |
Blocks Per Game | 3 | 3.8 | 11 | 2.6 |
They have a very good offense. We don't have a very good defense. This is not a formula for success.
Oregon will press at times, and that plays a big role in their leading the league in steals. We are very good in not turning the ball over.
Our 3-point defense will be a concern. They will shoot a lot of them.
Unlike other recent Oregon teams, the Ducks don't have a single dominant shot-blocker, at least since Dante went down for the season. However, they have a lot of athletes and block quite a few shots.
OTHER FACTORS
Oregon | UCLA | |||
Rebound Margin | 6 | 1.6 | 3 | 4.9 |
Offensive Rebounds | 6 | 9.7 | 5 | 10.0 |
Defensive Rebounds | 7 | 24.3 | 5 | 25.6 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 7 | 1.1 | 3 | 1.3 |
We should have a modest edge on the boards.
This will be their 7th game in 13 days. Their starters play a lot of minutes. That could take a toll on them.
We are 10-1 in close games. They are 6-1. If the game is close, it should be interesting.
PLAYERS
Altman will play 10 players, but he relies heavily on his five starters. But they are a terrific five starters.
Oregon has a pretty weak bench, but they have the best starting five in the Pac-12.
Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | ||
Chris Duarte | Sr | 20 | 34 | 17 | 54% | 44% | 5 | 2 |
Eugene Omoruyi | Sr | 22 | 30 | 17 | 46% | 37% | 5 | 2 |
LJ Figueroa | Sr | 20 | 31 | 12 | 46% | 38% | 7 | 2 |
Eric Williams, Jr | Jr | 18 | 30 | 11 | 39% | 33% | 6 | 2 |
Will Richardson | Jr | 10 | 36 | 10 | 36% | 28% | 3 | 3 |
Chandler Lawson | So | 22 | 19 | 5 | 49% | 36% | 3 | 1 |
Amauri Hardy | Sr | 22 | 22 | 4 | 40% | 22% | 1 | 3 |
Jalen Terry | Fr | 17 | 13 | 3 | 39% | 39% | 1 | 1 |
Frank Kepnang | Fr | 12 | 10 | 3 | 68% | 0% | 1 | 0 |
It all starts with Duarte and Omoruyi. They will both be playing in the NBA next season.
Duarte is a legitimate Pac-12 POY candidate. He is Oregon's best 2-point shooter and best 3-point shooter. He is a matchup nightmare.
Omoruyi is a future pro. He is a load under the basket and can consistently hit from outside.
Figueroa wasn't too impressive early in the year, but he is turning into a very solid 3rd option. He is also their best rebounder.
You won't tend to notice Williams too much, but he quietly does everything well.
I thought Will Richardson was going to be their best player. He led the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting last season and he is lightning quick. Somehow the injuries have set him back.
Once you get to the bench, things drop off a lot. Don't expect to see these guys play much if the game is close.
If you watched Arizona play the Ducks, you heard that Chandler Lawson has long arms. And you heard it again. And again. He started when other players were out, but there is nothing distinguishing about him.
Hardy gives the backcourt starters some rest.
Terry is a Top 100 PG recruit. He didn't play against Arizona and might not against us.
Kepnang is big, athletic, and very raw. He re-classified and joined them mid-season after Dante got injured. He can dunk.
CONCLUSION
We are up against a great coach, with great talent, on the road. To quote Gimli, "Certainty of death. Small chance of success. What are we waiting for?"
They play better defense. We are a little better on the boards.
At time, Oregon looks like they could play with Gonzaga. At other times, they can't seem to find the hoop. (With that obscene floor they play on, getting disoriented isn't that surprising.)
If this were earlier in the season, I would rate this game a tossup. If the game were in Pauley, I would rate the game a tossup.
However, this game is in March in Eugene. I think we will play better than we did in Boulder. However, I am not optimistic.