Post by mhbruin on Feb 12, 2021 10:45:38 GMT -8
Washington is terrible. This is an absolute MUST WIN game for us. A loss would be a Quad 4 loss.
Yet, they led us with 3½ minutes left in Pauley, and we aren't exactly playing great right now.
This is the last "easy" game left on our schedule.
No game is a gimme, and at the risk of being repetitive, this game is a MUST WIN.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
Washington has won three games. Beating Seattle U, isn't a surprise. However, beating Colorado and Utah are surprises.
They have some bad losses. Washington lost at home to 3-6 Montana. They are the only team in the Pac-12 to lose to every other team in the league.
They get blown out a lot. BUT, they only lost by 3 to Oregon when they held them to 38% shooting, but gave up 18 offensive rebounds.
Even a horrible team finds a blind squirrel on occasion.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -10
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 81% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 80% of the time.
Washington has played a pretty tough strength of schedule, and they have played crappy offense and horrible defense against those teams.
The computers rank Washington as the worst team in the state below Eastern Washington.
Washington is not the worst Power 6 team according to KenPom. They are the second worst. Kansas State ranks lower.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
UCLA is better than Washington in every offensive category. HOWEVER, we are moving in opposite directions. Since our first meeting the Huskies are improving in every offensive category and we are getting worse.
For, example, since our last meeting UCLA had dropped from the best 3-point shooting team in the league to 6th.
Also in our first meeting, they shot 52% from the floor and 44% on threes, both WAY above their season average.
Part of our problem is we are playing better defenses. Fortunately, Washington isn't one of them.
DEFENSE
Their defense isn't as good as ours, but that is based on a pretty low bar.
OTHER FACTORS
We should have a field day on the boards, even without Hill. We had 15 offensive rebounds in our first meeting and Hill only had 2 of them.
They outshot us in the first game, but rebounding was the difference.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible.
PLAYERS
Washington plays quite a few guys, but once they go to the bench, things seem to drop off quite a bit.
Quade Green is a very talented player. He has gone off for 20 or more in 7 of their 18 games.
Jamal Bey can also go off. He scored 28 in their win over Utah. However, he is not a volume shooter in most games.
Tshhonis doesn't start and there have been games where he never left the bench, but he is their third real scoring threat. However, he has been a bit inconsistent. He went off for 27 against a very good Colorado defense.
Stevenson will shoot a lot, but is pretty inconsistent.
Nate Roberts is strictly an inside guy.
Hameir Wright is one of those guys who oozed potential but never seems to live up to it.
CONCLUSION
If we hadn't just lost 3 of 4, I would confidently predict a win. OTOH, since their 2-game win streak, they have lost 4 games, all by double digits.
Washington at home: 3-5
UCLA on the road: 3-4
All of their wins have been at home, and we haven't killed it on the road.
Nonetheless, we are still a good team, and they are not.
Washington out-shot us in the first game. We won because we beat them on the boards and we didn't turn the ball over. That seems like the formula to win this game.
However, it sure would be nice if we played some good defense. We will need that for the rest of our schedule.
Yet, they led us with 3½ minutes left in Pauley, and we aren't exactly playing great right now.
This is the last "easy" game left on our schedule.
No game is a gimme, and at the risk of being repetitive, this game is a MUST WIN.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-4 | 1-1 | 6-0 | 4-0 |
Washington | 1-7 | 0-4 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
Washington has won three games. Beating Seattle U, isn't a surprise. However, beating Colorado and Utah are surprises.
They have some bad losses. Washington lost at home to 3-6 Montana. They are the only team in the Pac-12 to lose to every other team in the league.
They get blown out a lot. BUT, they only lost by 3 to Oregon when they held them to 38% shooting, but gave up 18 offensive rebounds.
Even a horrible team finds a blind squirrel on occasion.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -10
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 81% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 80% of the time.
WASHINGTON | UCLA | |
NET | 205 | 47 |
KenPom Rank | 167 | 43 |
Adjusted O Rank | 121 | 21 |
Adjusted D Rank | 211 | 86 |
Sagarin Rank | 154 | 35 |
Record | 3-15 | 13-5 |
SOS | 27 | 65 |
Washington has played a pretty tough strength of schedule, and they have played crappy offense and horrible defense against those teams.
The computers rank Washington as the worst team in the state below Eastern Washington.
Washington is not the worst Power 6 team according to KenPom. They are the second worst. Kansas State ranks lower.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
WASHINGTON | UCLA | |||
Scoring Offense | 11 | 66.9 | 6 | 73.5 |
FG Percent | 11 | 42.0% | 7 | 44.7% |
3-Pt Percent | 12 | 32.4% | 6 | 35.4% |
3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 3 | 22 | 8 | 19 |
FT Percent | 5 | 73.3% | 4 | 73.5% |
FT Attempts Per Game | 12 | 16 | 6 | 20 |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 10.2 | 6 | 14.3 |
Fewest Turnovers | 10 | 1 |
UCLA is better than Washington in every offensive category. HOWEVER, we are moving in opposite directions. Since our first meeting the Huskies are improving in every offensive category and we are getting worse.
For, example, since our last meeting UCLA had dropped from the best 3-point shooting team in the league to 6th.
Also in our first meeting, they shot 52% from the floor and 44% on threes, both WAY above their season average.
Part of our problem is we are playing better defenses. Fortunately, Washington isn't one of them.
DEFENSE
WASHINGTON | UCLA | |||
Scoring Defense | 12 | 78 | 6 | 68 |
FG Percent Defense | 11 | 45.3% | 8 | 43.2% |
3-Pt Percent Defense | 10 | 34.3% | 8 | 33.5% |
Steals Per Game | 5 | 6.3 | 9 | 5.5 |
Blocks Per Game | 3 | 11 | ||
Fewest Fouls Committed | 3 | 8 |
Their defense isn't as good as ours, but that is based on a pretty low bar.
OTHER FACTORS
WASHINGTON | UCLA | |||
Rebound Margin | 12 | -9.4 | 3 | 4.8 |
Offensive Rebounds | 8 | 8.4 | 3 | 10.9 |
Defensive Rebounds | 12 | 7 | ||
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 12 | 0.7 | 3 | 1.3 |
We should have a field day on the boards, even without Hill. We had 15 offensive rebounds in our first meeting and Hill only had 2 of them.
They outshot us in the first game, but rebounding was the difference.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible.
PLAYERS
Washington plays quite a few guys, but once they go to the bench, things seem to drop off quite a bit.
Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | |
Quade Green | 15 | 42% | 32% |
Jamal Bey | 10 | 48% | 52% |
Marcus Tsohonis | 9 | 45% | 40% |
Erik Stevenson | 7 | 35% | 32% |
Nate Roberts | 5 | 55% | --- |
Hameir Wright | 6 | 37% | 26% |
Nate Pryor | 5 | 39% | 30% |
Cole Bajema | 2 | 31% | 21% |
Quade Green is a very talented player. He has gone off for 20 or more in 7 of their 18 games.
Jamal Bey can also go off. He scored 28 in their win over Utah. However, he is not a volume shooter in most games.
Tshhonis doesn't start and there have been games where he never left the bench, but he is their third real scoring threat. However, he has been a bit inconsistent. He went off for 27 against a very good Colorado defense.
Stevenson will shoot a lot, but is pretty inconsistent.
Nate Roberts is strictly an inside guy.
Hameir Wright is one of those guys who oozed potential but never seems to live up to it.
CONCLUSION
If we hadn't just lost 3 of 4, I would confidently predict a win. OTOH, since their 2-game win streak, they have lost 4 games, all by double digits.
Washington at home: 3-5
UCLA on the road: 3-4
All of their wins have been at home, and we haven't killed it on the road.
Nonetheless, we are still a good team, and they are not.
Washington out-shot us in the first game. We won because we beat them on the boards and we didn't turn the ball over. That seems like the formula to win this game.
However, it sure would be nice if we played some good defense. We will need that for the rest of our schedule.