Post by mhbruin on Feb 8, 2021 11:47:09 GMT -8
Prior to our last game against the Cougars I wrote, "If we eschew the three and pound it inside, we should win easily. " We went 9 of 16 on threes, and 75% of our shots were inside the arc. We won by 30. I may just be a blind squirrel.
Right now, we don't know the status of Hill and Riley. At this point a blind squirrel may have a better idea the outcome than I do.
But let's take a look at the game anyway.
I am going to assume that Riley makes the trip and is close to 100%, and that Hill won't make the trip.
WSU'S RECORD
WSU started the season with 8 straight wins against:
Since then they have gone 3-8 with road wins over Cal, Washington, and a severely short-handed Oregon. In January, we beat them by 30.
Before our last game I called them one of the worst teams in the league. I have since upgraded my opinion of them.
There are a lot of reason to worry about this game. Let's start with this
UCLA on the Road: 3-3
WSU at Home: 8-3
HOWEVER, those 8 home wins were in those 8 non-conference games listed above.
They are 0-3 in conference games at home. They lost to Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. None of those teams are chopped liver, but still it's 0-3.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -4 to -4½.
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 72% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 65% of the time.
We are better in every metric, except for defense. And their offensive efficiency is TERRIBLE.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
Our offense has not been as good lately. this is probably due to the loss of Chris Smith and the start of Pac-12 play. Also, our schedule has gotten tougher.
We are better in every offensive category. That's because they are bad in almost every category.
They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't shoot them well. They don't shoot 2's well either.
They get to the line a lot, but they don't shoot FT's well.
They don't have a lot of assists, since they play a lot of 1-on-1 ball.
And they turn the ball over a lot.
DEFENSE
They are better than we are in every offensive defensive category.
OTHER FACTORS
When you miss a lot of shots, you get a lot of defensive rebounds.
Without Hill, rebounding will be very important. They are a good offensive rebounding team. Against Washington, which is a tall team, they got NINETEEN offensive rebounds. We need to block out their athletic front line.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible. That's what happens when you don't get a lot of assists and you turn the ball over a lot.
PLAYERS
WSU has changed their rotation a bit since the first game. TJ Bamba has been basically dropped from the rotation and guards DJ Rodman and Ryan Rapp are getting a more PT. They still go 8 or 9 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 3 players: Bonton, Williams, and Abogidi.
Here are the four primary scorers.
WSU has some very good 3-point shooters. The problem is that they don't always take most of the 3's. Bonton, Abogidi, Jakimovski, and Rapp will take a lot of them. Of course, any of them can go off.
Bonton is their leading scorer, but that is mostly because he takes over 25% of their shots. He can get hot, but he is NOT a good shooter.
Bonton is their primary ball-handler, but has a mediocre 1.1 A/TO ratio.
Noah Williams is a very good player. I think he is their best player, but he defers a bit too much to Bonton.
6-10 freshman Abogidi is going to be a star in the Pac-12. He is VERY athletic and has skills. He leads them in rebounding, has 2 blocks per game, and can score from anywhere on the floor.
6-6 freshman Jakimovski takes 70% of his shots from beyond the arc. Earlier in the year he was deadly, but he has been terrible in recent games.
Volodymyr Markovetskyy is 7-1, 270 who is big. He is also know for having "yy" in his name. Other than that, he is slow, but he is still big. If he gets the ball in deep, he can score.
Washington State is young, but surprisingly talented. If they can pick up a quality PG in the transfer market, I predict they will make the NCAA tournament next year. (You heard it here first.) They may be a better team without Bonton.
THE STRANGE CASE OF ISSAC BONTON
We have all seen enough of Bonton to be scared of him. In our first game this year, he went off for 23 points on 59% shooting and 60% on 3's. He took difficult shots and they all seemed to go in. He looked like he could score at will. He has been in double figures in 15 straight games.
However, he also has games like he had against Arizona State, where he took 25 shots and made 5 of them. That included 1 of 9 from the arc. He had 5 assist and 11 turnovers.
Against Arizona he shot 29% while accumulating 1 assist and 8 turnovers.
He can also score 34 points on 62% shooting, with 8 assists and 2 turnovers.
The question is: Which Issac Bonton will show up on any given night? The bigger question is: Which Issac Bonton will show up on Thursday night?
I have no clue.
CONCLUSION
I don't want to draw a lot of conclusions yet since we don't know the status of Hill and Riley. Normally, I would expect a relatively easy win, but nothing is normal this year.
Starting center Dishon Jackson has an ankle injury, and there is a question as to whether he will pay and if he will be 100% if he can go. That sounds a lot like Cody Riley's situation. We may be treated to the pleasure of watching two starting posts who are less than 100% go head to head.
I disagree with Coach Cronin. He said you need to defend Bonton and make someone else beat us. I don't think our main concern should be a 30% shooter who takes too many shots. I am more worried Noah Williams and DJ Rodman shooting over 40% on 3's. I am worried about Abogidi and Jackson shooting close to 50% from the field.
Pullman is still a tough place to play. At least our players won't be distracted by the night life.
If you want to lose sleep, consider this. "Washington State is a perfect 9-0 when it holds an opponent to 62 points or fewer. The Cougars are 2-8 when opponents score more than 62 points." In our first 13 games, we were never held under 62. However, in our last 4 games we were under 62 at the end of regulation every time. We definitely need to to a better job on offense.
If you want to sleep a little better, consider this: This game is about our defense. When they score over 70, they usually win. Under 70, they lose. KenPom ranks them #210 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I think we hold them under 70 and win the game.
But let's take a look at the game anyway.
I am going to assume that Riley makes the trip and is close to 100%, and that Hill won't make the trip.
WSU'S RECORD
WSU started the season with 8 straight wins against:
- Texas Southern (5-7)
- Eastern Washington (7-4)
- Oregon State (9-7)
- Idaho (0-15)
- Portland State (3-8)
- Montana State (7-5)
- Prairie View A&M (7-4)
- Northwestern State (4-14)
Since then they have gone 3-8 with road wins over Cal, Washington, and a severely short-handed Oregon. In January, we beat them by 30.
Before our last game I called them one of the worst teams in the league. I have since upgraded my opinion of them.
There are a lot of reason to worry about this game. Let's start with this
UCLA on the Road: 3-3
WSU at Home: 8-3
HOWEVER, those 8 home wins were in those 8 non-conference games listed above.
They are 0-3 in conference games at home. They lost to Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. None of those teams are chopped liver, but still it's 0-3.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -4 to -4½.
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 72% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 65% of the time.
| WSU | UCLA | |
| NET | 113 | 38 |
| KenPom Rank | 115 | 37 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 210 | 21 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 41 | 74 |
| Sagarin Rank | 109 | 30 |
| Record | 11-8 | 13-4 |
| SOS | 98 | 64 |
We are better in every metric, except for defense. And their offensive efficiency is TERRIBLE.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| WSU | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Offense | 10 | 67.9 | 6 | 75.3 |
| FG Percent | 12 | 41.5% | 7 | 44.7% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 6 | 34.2% | 4 | 36.1% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 22 | 19 | ||
| FT Percent | 10 | 68.7% | 4 | 73.8% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 21 | 20 | ||
| Assists Per Game | 11 | 11.0 | 6 | 14.4 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 11 | 15.0 | 2 | 10.9 |
Our offense has not been as good lately. this is probably due to the loss of Chris Smith and the start of Pac-12 play. Also, our schedule has gotten tougher.
We are better in every offensive category. That's because they are bad in almost every category.
They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't shoot them well. They don't shoot 2's well either.
They get to the line a lot, but they don't shoot FT's well.
They don't have a lot of assists, since they play a lot of 1-on-1 ball.
And they turn the ball over a lot.
DEFENSE
| WSU | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Defense | 66.8 | 67.1 | ||
| FG Percent Defense | 2 | 40.1% | 8 | 42.9% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 1 | 31.2% | 4 | 32.1% |
| Steals Per Game | 7 | 6.2 | 9 | 5.4 |
| Blocks Per Game | 6 | 11 | ||
| Fewest Fouls Committed | 7 | 19.3 | 6 | 19.1 |
They are better than we are in every
OTHER FACTORS
| WSU | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 7 | 1.8 | 3 | 5.6 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 4 | 10.7 | 3 | 11.1 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 3 | 5 | ||
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 12 | 0.7 | 3 | 1.3 |
When you miss a lot of shots, you get a lot of defensive rebounds.
Without Hill, rebounding will be very important. They are a good offensive rebounding team. Against Washington, which is a tall team, they got NINETEEN offensive rebounds. We need to block out their athletic front line.
Their A/TO ratio is terrible. That's what happens when you don't get a lot of assists and you turn the ball over a lot.
PLAYERS
WSU has changed their rotation a bit since the first game. TJ Bamba has been basically dropped from the rotation and guards DJ Rodman and Ryan Rapp are getting a more PT. They still go 8 or 9 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 3 players: Bonton, Williams, and Abogidi.
Here are the four primary scorers.
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | ||
| Issac Bonton | Senior | 18 | 39% | 32% |
| Noah Williams | Sophomore | 13 | 44% | 43% |
| Efe Abogidi | Freshman | 9 | 49% | 33% |
| Dishon Jackson | Freshman | 6 | 47% | 0% |
| Andrej Jakimovski | Freshman | 6 | 31% | 31% |
| DJ Rodman | Sophomore | 5 | 41% | 42% |
| Ailjaz Kunc | Junior | 5 | 43% | 35% |
| Ryan Rapp | Sophomore | 4 | 34% | 30% |
| Volodymyr Markovetskyy | Sophomore | 3 | 66% | 0% |
WSU has some very good 3-point shooters. The problem is that they don't always take most of the 3's. Bonton, Abogidi, Jakimovski, and Rapp will take a lot of them. Of course, any of them can go off.
Bonton is their leading scorer, but that is mostly because he takes over 25% of their shots. He can get hot, but he is NOT a good shooter.
Bonton is their primary ball-handler, but has a mediocre 1.1 A/TO ratio.
Noah Williams is a very good player. I think he is their best player, but he defers a bit too much to Bonton.
6-10 freshman Abogidi is going to be a star in the Pac-12. He is VERY athletic and has skills. He leads them in rebounding, has 2 blocks per game, and can score from anywhere on the floor.
6-6 freshman Jakimovski takes 70% of his shots from beyond the arc. Earlier in the year he was deadly, but he has been terrible in recent games.
Volodymyr Markovetskyy is 7-1, 270 who is big. He is also know for having "yy" in his name. Other than that, he is slow, but he is still big. If he gets the ball in deep, he can score.
Washington State is young, but surprisingly talented. If they can pick up a quality PG in the transfer market, I predict they will make the NCAA tournament next year. (You heard it here first.) They may be a better team without Bonton.
THE STRANGE CASE OF ISSAC BONTON
We have all seen enough of Bonton to be scared of him. In our first game this year, he went off for 23 points on 59% shooting and 60% on 3's. He took difficult shots and they all seemed to go in. He looked like he could score at will. He has been in double figures in 15 straight games.
However, he also has games like he had against Arizona State, where he took 25 shots and made 5 of them. That included 1 of 9 from the arc. He had 5 assist and 11 turnovers.
Against Arizona he shot 29% while accumulating 1 assist and 8 turnovers.
He can also score 34 points on 62% shooting, with 8 assists and 2 turnovers.
The question is: Which Issac Bonton will show up on any given night? The bigger question is: Which Issac Bonton will show up on Thursday night?
I have no clue.
CONCLUSION
I disagree with Coach Cronin. He said you need to defend Bonton and make someone else beat us. I don't think our main concern should be a 30% shooter who takes too many shots. I am more worried Noah Williams and DJ Rodman shooting over 40% on 3's. I am worried about Abogidi and Jackson shooting close to 50% from the field.
Pullman is still a tough place to play. At least our players won't be distracted by the night life.
If you want to lose sleep, consider this. "Washington State is a perfect 9-0 when it holds an opponent to 62 points or fewer. The Cougars are 2-8 when opponents score more than 62 points." In our first 13 games, we were never held under 62. However, in our last 4 games we were under 62 at the end of regulation every time. We definitely need to to a better job on offense.
If you want to sleep a little better, consider this: This game is about our defense. When they score over 70, they usually win. Under 70, they lose. KenPom ranks them #210 in adjusted offensive efficiency. I think we hold them under 70 and win the game.