Post by mhbruin on Jan 6, 2021 11:59:41 GMT -8
Imagine a team that shoots worse than UCLA and defends worse than UCLA. Now imagine that team is MUCH worse in rebounding.
This team has a 4-3 record. Their best win is over a 5-5 team from the A-10. And they have a 13-point loss to a team picked to finish 8th in Conference USA.
How much would you say UCLA should be favored by? 5 points? 10 points? 15 points?
Now imagine this team is favored over UCLA by ESPN's FPI. And the line is pickem. Welcome to 2021 and Tempe Arizona.
ASU'S RECORD
ASU came into the season with a big reputation, but they haven't lived up to it. They are 4-3, against a similar SOS to ours.
ASU has 3 losses. Two of them are respectable, to Villanova by 9 and to San Diego State by 12. (We lost by 15.)
Then there is the loss to UTEP by 13. UTEP is 159 in KenPom. Go figure.
Their 4 wins are nothing to get excited about. Their best win is over 5-5 Rhode Island and ASU only beat Grand Canyon by 1.
They did play their last 3 games without Top 30 freshman Marcus Bagely who was injured on Dec 3. He is expected to be 100% for our game.
METRICS
Line: Pickem
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 49% of the time.
The computers like UCLA. We have played a comparable schedule.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
They are higher scoring, but not by a lot. We are better in just about every offensive category.
They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't do it all that well.
Another problem is they don't have that many assists. They probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball.
This team has too many players who want to be the big scorer.
DEFENSE
Here is why they are off to such a bad start. They are a crappy defensive team. Unless they are getting a lot of steals they aren't doing a great job of stopping the other team.
OTHER FACTORS
They are getting killed on the boards. They problem is they don't have much of a front line. They have a few guys who are 6-8 or 6-9, but they are all thin. And we are a good rebounding team.
The fact that leading rebounder Marcus Bagley has been out hasn't helped.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs.
PLAYERS
ASU goes 10 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 4 players.
Each is one-dimensional. You need to keep Martin and Christopher from driving. You need to get Verge and Bagley off the 3-point line
CONCLUSION
We are better at:
So why is this game even competitive? They are very talented. They just don't play that well together.
However, they have been off since December 16th and they got Bagley back, so they have had a lot of time to fix things.
I think we beat the over-rated Sun Devils fairly easily, but we don't seem to beat anyone fairly easily. So look for another close game, but one where team ball beats talented individual players.
This team has a 4-3 record. Their best win is over a 5-5 team from the A-10. And they have a 13-point loss to a team picked to finish 8th in Conference USA.
How much would you say UCLA should be favored by? 5 points? 10 points? 15 points?
Now imagine this team is favored over UCLA by ESPN's FPI. And the line is pickem. Welcome to 2021 and Tempe Arizona.
ASU'S RECORD
ASU came into the season with a big reputation, but they haven't lived up to it. They are 4-3, against a similar SOS to ours.
ASU has 3 losses. Two of them are respectable, to Villanova by 9 and to San Diego State by 12. (We lost by 15.)
Then there is the loss to UTEP by 13. UTEP is 159 in KenPom. Go figure.
Their 4 wins are nothing to get excited about. Their best win is over 5-5 Rhode Island and ASU only beat Grand Canyon by 1.
They did play their last 3 games without Top 30 freshman Marcus Bagely who was injured on Dec 3. He is expected to be 100% for our game.
METRICS
Line: Pickem
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 49% of the time.
| ASU | UCLA | |
| NET | 105 | 54 |
| KenPom Rank | 57 | 33 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 46 | 12 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 75 | 66 |
| Sagarin Rank | 59 | 27 |
| Record | 4-3 | 7-2 |
| SOS | 79 | 75 |
The computers like UCLA. We have played a comparable schedule.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| ASU | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Offense | 3 | 77.1 | 6 | 75,3 |
| FG Percent | 8 | 44.9% | 3 | 46.3% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 8 | 32.9% | 5 | 35.5% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 1 | 24 | 9 | 19 |
| FT Percent | 7 | 4 | ||
| FT Attempts Per Game | 4 | 7 | ||
| Assists Per Game | 10 | 11.7 | 2 | 15.7 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 4 | 2 |
They are higher scoring, but not by a lot. We are better in just about every offensive category.
They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't do it all that well.
Another problem is they don't have that many assists. They probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball.
This team has too many players who want to be the big scorer.
DEFENSE
| ASU | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Defense | 12 | 9 | ||
| FG Percent Defense | 12 | 45.6 | 9 | 42.5% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 11 | 35.8% | 6 | 29.7% |
| Steals Per Game | 4 | 7.3 | 11 | 4.8 |
| Blocks Per Game | 8 | 10 |
Here is why they are off to such a bad start. They are a crappy defensive team. Unless they are getting a lot of steals they aren't doing a great job of stopping the other team.
OTHER FACTORS
| ASU | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 11 | -8.3 | 4 | 6.4 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 12 | 7.0 | 6 | 10.6 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 10 | 8 | ||
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 8 | 1.0 | 3 | 1.5 |
They are getting killed on the boards. They problem is they don't have much of a front line. They have a few guys who are 6-8 or 6-9, but they are all thin. And we are a good rebounding team.
The fact that leading rebounder Marcus Bagley has been out hasn't helped.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs.
PLAYERS
ASU goes 10 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 4 players.
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | |
| Remy Martin | 17 | 51% | 28% |
| Josh Christopher | 17 | 49% | 23% |
| Alonzo Verge | 15 | 42% | 43% |
| Marcus Bagley | 13 | 36% | 40% |
Each is one-dimensional. You need to keep Martin and Christopher from driving. You need to get Verge and Bagley off the 3-point line
CONCLUSION
We are better at:
- Offense
- Defense
- Rebounding
- A/TO Ratio
So why is this game even competitive? They are very talented. They just don't play that well together.
However, they have been off since December 16th and they got Bagley back, so they have had a lot of time to fix things.
I think we beat the over-rated Sun Devils fairly easily, but we don't seem to beat anyone fairly easily. So look for another close game, but one where team ball beats talented individual players.