Post by mhbruin on Dec 30, 2020 13:48:43 GMT -8
It is early in the season to put too much faith in stats, but you have to work with what you have.
Line: UCLA favored by 6.5 to 7.0
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 67% of the time.
METRICS
The computers like UCLA. We are significantly better on offense and we have played a MUCH tougher schedule.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
We are a higher-scoring team and we shoot better. 3-point shooting is pretty even. We both get a lot of assists and neither team turns the ball over.
We get to the FT line quite a bit more than they do. We need to convert.
DEFENSE
They want to play at a slower pace. They defend the 3 very well, but so do we. We don't shoot the 3 that much, so that helps us.
OTHER FACTORS
Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. That should be a big edge for us.
PLAYERS
Utah goes around 8 deep, and their scoring is pretty balanced.
Their two leading scorers are Timmy Allen, and Alfonso Plummer.
Allen only shoots 42% from the floor, but he shoots 35% on 3's. They is to make him drive and then don't foul him.
Half of Plummer's shots are 3's, and he makes 42% of them. However, he is dangerous from anywhere on the floor.
However, Utah definitely plays team ball, so this is not about defending any particular players. You have to play sound TEAM defense.
CONCLUSION
Utah was a terrible road team last season. The Utes were 0-9 in Pac-12 road games in 2019-20, losing those nine games by an average of 16.2 points per contest. Of those nine losses, only three of them wound up being single-digit losses. The other six were double-digit blowouts, the most-extreme example being a 39-point loss at Colorado in the Utes’ conference road opener.
I think Utah plays much better at home because of the altitude factor. Playing at sea level, levels the playing field.
Utah is still on the young side, the third-youngest team in the Pac-12 according to KenPom.com to be exact, but they’re certainly older than a year ago. The starting lineup is likely to consist of sophomore Rylen Jones, 7 foot sophomore Branden Carlson, junior Timmy Allen, senior Alfonso Plummer and either sophomore Mikael Jantunen or junior Riley Battin.
Four factors favor the Bruins: 1) better offense, 2) better rebounding, 3) playing at home, and 4) a much tougher schedule. Their 4 wins are over teams with a combined 2-20 record.
Line: UCLA favored by 6.5 to 7.0
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 67% of the time.
METRICS
| Utah | UCLA | |
| NET | 85 | 76 |
| KenPom Rank | 61 | 29 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 60 | 12 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 63 | 57 |
| Sagarin Rank | 89 | 32 |
| Record | 4-1 | 5-2 |
| SOS | 299 | 98 |
The computers like UCLA. We are significantly better on offense and we have played a MUCH tougher schedule.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| Utah | UCLA | |
| Scoring Offense | 8 | 5 |
| FG Percent | 10 | 4 |
| 3-Pt Percent | 6 | 5 |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 6 | 9 |
| FT Percent | 3 | 4 |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 10 | 5 |
| Assists Per Game | 2 | 3 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
We are a higher-scoring team and we shoot better. 3-point shooting is pretty even. We both get a lot of assists and neither team turns the ball over.
We get to the FT line quite a bit more than they do. We need to convert.
DEFENSE
| Utah | UCLA | |
| Scoring Defense | 3 | 10 |
| FG Percent Defense | 8 | 10 |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 1 | 3 |
| Steals Per Game | 3 | 5 |
| Blocks Per Game | 12 | 6 |
They want to play at a slower pace. They defend the 3 very well, but so do we. We don't shoot the 3 that much, so that helps us.
OTHER FACTORS
| Utah | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 10 | 4 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 10 | 4 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 10 | 5 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1 | 2 |
Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. That should be a big edge for us.
PLAYERS
Utah goes around 8 deep, and their scoring is pretty balanced.
Their two leading scorers are Timmy Allen, and Alfonso Plummer.
Allen only shoots 42% from the floor, but he shoots 35% on 3's. They is to make him drive and then don't foul him.
Half of Plummer's shots are 3's, and he makes 42% of them. However, he is dangerous from anywhere on the floor.
However, Utah definitely plays team ball, so this is not about defending any particular players. You have to play sound TEAM defense.
CONCLUSION
Utah was a terrible road team last season. The Utes were 0-9 in Pac-12 road games in 2019-20, losing those nine games by an average of 16.2 points per contest. Of those nine losses, only three of them wound up being single-digit losses. The other six were double-digit blowouts, the most-extreme example being a 39-point loss at Colorado in the Utes’ conference road opener.
I think Utah plays much better at home because of the altitude factor. Playing at sea level, levels the playing field.
Utah is still on the young side, the third-youngest team in the Pac-12 according to KenPom.com to be exact, but they’re certainly older than a year ago. The starting lineup is likely to consist of sophomore Rylen Jones, 7 foot sophomore Branden Carlson, junior Timmy Allen, senior Alfonso Plummer and either sophomore Mikael Jantunen or junior Riley Battin.
Four factors favor the Bruins: 1) better offense, 2) better rebounding, 3) playing at home, and 4) a much tougher schedule. Their 4 wins are over teams with a combined 2-20 record.
