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Post by mhbruin on Oct 9, 2020 16:21:40 GMT -8
North,
I may not agree that 2016 tells us much about this year, but I still appreciate all your work. I always like numbers.
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Post by mhbruin on Oct 10, 2020 8:05:42 GMT -8
This is the 10th time in the era of polls that a candidate had a 10% lead in October. All 10 have won, although 1 was very close.
Here are those races.
Eisenhower - Stevenson (2x)
LBJ - Goldwater
Nixon - Humphrey - Wallace
Nixon - McGovern
Reagan - Mondale
Clinton - Bush 41
Clinton - Dole
Bush 43 - Gore
You might consider Bush - Gore a worry, but it didn't look at all like this race. Bush did lead by 10%, but Gore also led in October. 3 TIMES.
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Post by mhbruin on Oct 10, 2020 9:31:01 GMT -8
BTW, only once was the candidate with the 10% lead a challenger to an incumbent. That was Clinton vs. Bush the Elder.
Clinton won by almost 6%, but that race also included Ross Perot who got 19% of the vote.
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