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Post by gainsborough on Oct 5, 2020 13:20:35 GMT -8
I also noticed that Trump's approval ratings have been climbing up, slowly but steadily. Two thoughts crossed my mind:
1. How in Hell can Trump's approvals rise during these times? - Are some people glad to learn that he was a failed businessman who paid nearly no taxes? - Are some people happy with the way he is handling a pandemic that has killed more than 200,000 Americans, devastated our economy, and wrecked havoc on our lives? - How many people want a President calling out to White Supremacists by advising them to "Stand down, stand by"? That's nothing less than a call to get ready for a race war.
2. To explain the rise in Trump's approval ratings while Biden simultaneously widens his lead, look to the und-decideds. I assume most are now going to Biden, but perhaps enough are going Trump's way to lift his negatives.
Overall, Topic #1 is the real head-scratcher.
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Post by gainsborough on Oct 5, 2020 13:47:45 GMT -8
Oops, my bad. Trump's climb has not come from the un-decideds. According to 538.com, it appears that he is pulling support from Biden, because Trump's small-but-steady rise con-incides exactly with Biden's small-but-steady fall. That poll is focused on that topic: "How Popular is Donald Trump?".
However, there is still the other poll on 538.com - the one that most of us turn to for predicting the outcome of the election by summarizing the results of a variety of national polls. That one still shows Biden maintaining a significant lead (and perhaps even extending it a little bit).
I conclude the polling questions associated with "popularity" do not accurately predict the results of the other poll, which deals with the separate topic of "Who will you vote for?"
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Post by northbruin40 on Oct 5, 2020 14:20:25 GMT -8
Oops, my bad. Trump's climb has not come from the un-decideds. According to 538.com, it appears that he is pulling support from Biden, because Trump's small-but-steady rise con-incides exactly with Biden's small-but-steady fall. That poll is focused on that topic: "How Popular is Donald Trump?". However, there is still the other poll on 538.com - the one that most of us turn to for predicting the outcome of the election by summarizing the results of a variety of national polls. That one still shows Biden maintaining a significant lead (and perhaps even extending it a little bit). I conclude the polling questions associated with "popularity" do not accurately predict the results of the other poll, which deals with the separate topic of "Who will you vote for?" Trump was actually underpolling in "popularity" in comparison to head-to-head with Biden until September. Then for much of September the popularity and polled vote for Trump coincided. The last week of September the popularity moved 1 to 1.5% ahead of the polled vote. As Born2BBruin said, that isn't a large error. I suspect the poll corrections, poll-averaging methods, and the choice/availability of polls for popularity and head-to-head are different. Again, I believe the popularity catching up to the head-to-head is "real", but the apparent recent overpolling of popularity is noise, methods and bad polls. But again, we are arguing over 1 to 1.5%. RCP and 538 differed by 1.5% in their 2016 projections.
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Post by northbruin40 on Oct 5, 2020 17:08:28 GMT -8
The median of the last 11 popularity polls has Trump at 43% - while he is polling at 42.7% in the latest 538 poll average.
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Post by andyh64000 on Oct 6, 2020 17:22:47 GMT -8
Another Trumpster from my frequent flyer message board.
He is from Texas and was a big time Trump supporter as recently as April:
"Originally Posted by XX XXX View Post The comments on the military, the debate and Trump's despicable behavior since he got Covid have pushed me over the edge. I had already decided not to vote this election, but now cannot just sit by. I will drag myself to the booth, hold my nose and pull the lever for someone I consider the most despicable free trading dbag from the left. Nothing less than a thorough crushing at the polls will suffice."
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Post by Born2BBruin on Oct 6, 2020 17:41:43 GMT -8
Another Trumpster from my frequent flyer message board. He is from Texas and was a big time Trump supporter as recently as April: "Originally Posted by XX XXX View Post The comments on the military, the debate and Trump's despicable behavior since he got Covid have pushed me over the edge. I had already decided not to vote this election, but now cannot just sit by. I will drag myself to the booth, hold my nose and pull the lever for someone I consider the most despicable free trading dbag from the left. Nothing less than a thorough crushing at the polls will suffice." I'm sure Joe will take the vote but "most despicable free trading dbag from the left" is about as questionable an assessment I've read. But admittedly, I haven't read all that much.
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Post by andyh64000 on Oct 6, 2020 17:56:47 GMT -8
Another Trumpster from my frequent flyer message board. He is from Texas and was a big time Trump supporter as recently as April: "Originally Posted by XX XXX View Post The comments on the military, the debate and Trump's despicable behavior since he got Covid have pushed me over the edge. I had already decided not to vote this election, but now cannot just sit by. I will drag myself to the booth, hold my nose and pull the lever for someone I consider the most despicable free trading dbag from the left. Nothing less than a thorough crushing at the polls will suffice." I'm sure Joe will take the vote but "most despicable free trading dbag from the left" is about as questionable an assessment I've read. But admittedly, I haven't read all that much. It does show how far Trump has fallen if someone who would say that about Biden would still vote for him.
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Post by mhbruin on Oct 7, 2020 7:28:41 GMT -8
There is one group of voters that no one is talking about. We hear endlessly about whites with and without college degrees, suburban women, Hispanics, Blacks, etc. There is a group that no one mentions. Obama voters who did not vote in 2016. There were a significant number of them and they likely cost Hillary Michigan. There is anecdotal evidence of people who "won't make that mistake again", but I don't know of any polling of them. They are likely to be excluded from likely voter screens if they didn't vote last time. Story about the drop in voting in 2016
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