|
Post by blublood on Jul 28, 2020 8:21:09 GMT -8
African-Americans have a problem with Harris' tough-on-crime stuff while she was a DA.
|
|
bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
|
Post by bobinmd on Jul 28, 2020 9:43:24 GMT -8
My thinking is I want a VP ready to be President. Confident, experienced, able to reach across aisles, and in the event that Joe Biden fills out his four years, I want a VP who'll be favored for our 2024 nomination.
Criteria: 1. If she is a senator, a state which can easily vote-in a Dem replacement. I am for Harris on this.
2. Is she an AA? I think this is expected by most Dems. I am all in for an AA woman.
3. Is she from a battleground state? I think, along with many pundits, that this is no longer a vote-getting issue for VP.
4. Biden is 77. Is she ready to step-in to the oval office? I rank Harris on top among the 5 I have heard are on the short list. More below.
I like Susan Rice on foreign affairs but not in legislation or as an executive, e.g., Gov. or in Congress. I value Abrams somewhat for her House experience. I find Deming's experience as a police chief debatable.
5. If Joe is full-term, then which would be a strong 2024 candidate w/o much primary in-fighting? It depends on how active a VP she can be and what results and growth occur in the 4 years. This comes down to energy as VP and charisma with the public.
I think Harris and Abrams might be even, they both impress me If Rice can be as active as those two, she is quite charismatic (my opinion). Deming? Not quick thinking in interviews. Seems to have almost no charisma.
As seems clear (to me, lol) numbers 4 and 5 are the most vital. I hope he picks in this order:
Harris ... Tough S.F. prosecutor, tough AG, highly activist Senator. Hot.
tie: Abrams & Rice Both would be good campaigners. Impressive.
I don't want to hear that he's picked Deming. She's "deer in the headlights." Small-timer, imo.
If there is some other AA femme on his shortest list, I am open-minded, but I think the three on MY list would be superb as VP and as a 2024 candidate. I think Duckworth is impressive, and I've fallen in love with Atlanta's Mayor. But I am sticking with the three above.
As for a Biden 2nd term, he won't announce that but I predict it is a non-starter in his mind. "Lame duck issue? I seriously think the Democrats can get both houses this November (have posted this hope from the start), and who knows about 2022, yet with good performances 2021-2022 maybe both Houses stay blue?
|
|
|
Post by northbruin40 on Jul 28, 2020 9:50:27 GMT -8
I am seeing claims that Harris polls very poorly among minorities. Is that really true? I don't think Biden should pick an African American just to have an African-American, but it would be really bad if an African-American pick ended up costing him African-American support. An AA pick should be an icing on the cake, not a liability among AA voters. I think the "polling poorly" was when she was running for President. It's less clear if that's "They don't like her" or simply "She wasn't winning them over in comparison to other candidates". There's another factor here that I think is under-discussed. Some assume the "swing vote" in the African American community is young voters or more left-leaning voters. That is, they will turn out for Obama, but they won't turn out for say Hilary Clinton. I could offer an alternative hypothesis that Obama's increase in the African American vote came from higher turnout in middle-age and older voters and "conservative" and "moderate" African American voters. That is, increased turnout where the African American vote was traditionally concentrated. Actually, I don't think anyone really knows because I haven't seen any polling on this. I just threw out an alternative idea because there's no polling on this. Edit: I'm pretty sure the choice is going to come to one of the following 3: Kamela Harris, Susan Rice and Tammy Duckworth. Warren won't be selected because she opens up a line-of-attack from Trump about her being too ideological and partisan (Biden's advantage over Trump with suburban women voters is an apple cart that advisors don't want overturned), and she's too much of a bold leader rather than a follower for fitting the role of the loyal VP. Stacey Abrams won't be selected because of limited experience in government and she's too independent to be a VP (Biden won't want a VP candidate taking her own path - we've seen that this Century). I think personally Biden would prefer Rice or Duckworth to work with, but Harris checks more boxes.
|
|
bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
|
Post by bobinmd on Jul 28, 2020 9:50:51 GMT -8
My thinking is I want a VP ready to be President. Confident, experienced, able to reach across aisles, and in the event that Joe Biden fills out his four years, I want a VP who'll be favored for our 2024 nomination.
Criteria: 1. If she is a senator, a state which can easily vote-in a Dem replacement. I am for Harris on this.
2. Is she an AA? I think this is expected by most Dems. I am all in for an AA woman.
3. Is she from a battleground state? I think, along with many pundits, that this is no longer a vote-getting issue for VP.
4. Biden is 77. Is she ready to step-in to the oval office? I rank Harris on top among the 5 I have heard are on the short list. More below.
I like Susan Rice on foreign affairs but not in legislation or as an executive, e.g., Gov. or in Congress. I value Abrams somewhat for her House experience. I find Deming's experience as a police chief debatable.
5. If Joe is full-term, then which would be a strong 2024 candidate w/o much primary in-fighting? It depends on how active a VP she can be and what results and growth occur in the 4 years. This comes down to energy as VP and charisma with the public.
I think Harris and Abrams might be even, they both impress me If Rice can be as active as those two, she is quite charismatic (my opinion). Deming? Not quick thinking in interviews. Seems to have almost no charisma.
As seems clear (to me, lol) numbers 4 and 5 are the most vital. I hope he picks in this order:
Harris ... Tough S.F. prosecutor, tough AG, highly activist Senator. Hot.
tie: Abrams & Rice Both would be good campaigners. Impressive.
I don't want to hear that he's picked Deming. She's "deer in the headlights." Small-timer, imo.
If there is some other AA femme on his shortest list, I am open-minded, but I think the three on MY list would be superb as VP and as a 2024 candidate. I think Duckworth is impressive, and I've fallen in love with Atlanta's Mayor. But I am sticking with the three above.
As for a Biden 2nd term, he won't announce that but I predict it is a non-starter in his mind. "Lame duck issue? I seriously think the Democrats can get both houses this November (have posted this hope from the start), and who knows about 2022, yet with good performances 2021-2022 maybe both Houses stay blue?
|
|
bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
|
Post by bobinmd on Jul 28, 2020 9:51:46 GMT -8
My thinking is I want a VP ready to be President. Confident, experienced, able to reach across aisles, and in the event that Joe Biden fills out his four years, I want a VP who'll be favored for our 2024 nomination.
Criteria: 1. If she is a senator, a state which can easily vote-in a Dem replacement. I am for Harris on this.
2. Is she an AA? I think this is expected by most Dems. I am all in for an AA woman.
3. Is she from a battleground state? I think, along with many pundits, that this is no longer a vote-getting issue for VP.
4. Biden is 77. Is she ready to step-in to the oval office? I rank Harris on top among the 5 I have heard are on the short list. More below.
I like Susan Rice on foreign affairs but not in legislation or as an executive, e.g., Gov. or in Congress. I value Abrams somewhat for her House experience. I find Deming's experience as a police chief debatable.
5. If Joe is full-term, then which would be a strong 2024 candidate w/o much primary in-fighting? It depends on how active a VP she can be and what results and growth occur in the 4 years. This comes down to energy as VP and charisma with the public.
I think Harris and Abrams might be even, they both impress me If Rice can be as active as those two, she is quite charismatic (my opinion). Deming? Not quick thinking in interviews. Seems to have almost no charisma.
As seems clear (to me, lol) numbers 4 and 5 are the most vital. I hope he picks in this order:
Harris ... Tough S.F. prosecutor, tough AG, highly activist Senator. Hot.
tie: Abrams & Rice Both would be good campaigners. Impressive.
I don't want to hear that he's picked Deming. She's "deer in the headlights." Small-timer, imo.
If there is some other AA femme on his shortest list, I am open-minded, but I think the three on MY list would be superb as VP and as a 2024 candidate. I think Duckworth is impressive, and I've fallen in love with Atlanta's Mayor. But I am sticking with the three above.
As for a Biden 2nd term, he won't announce that but I predict it is a non-starter in his mind. "Lame duck issue? I seriously think the Democrats can get both houses this November (have posted this hope from the start), and who knows about 2022, yet with good performances 2021-2022 maybe both Houses stay blue?
|
|
|
Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 28, 2020 10:17:20 GMT -8
I am seeing claims that Harris polls very poorly among minorities. Is that really true? I don't think Biden should pick an African American just to have an African-American, but it would be really bad if an African-American pick ended up costing him African-American support. An AA pick should be an icing on the cake, not a liability among AA voters. How does the logic to that play out? Voter: - I like Joe Biden. I'm going to vote for him instead of trump?
- But he picked Harris as his VP. I don't like her because maybe she supported programs I disagree with when she was DA or AG.
- So I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden after all. I'll either vote for trump or just stay home.
Or... Voter: - I don't know if I should vote for trump or Joe Biden.
- I know trump is a racist and really hates Black Lives Matter, and still thinks the Central Park Five should have got the death penalty.
- And I'm not sure, but Pence seems to almost as big a racist as trump.
- Joe Biden, on the other had, was Barack Obama's hand picked right hand man.
- But Kamala Harris said he support busing back in the day, so he might be a racist too.
- But what really gets my goat is he picked Harris to be his VP.
- So I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden. I'll either vote for proven racist or just stay home.
Or is it just as simple as... Voter: - Kamala Harris isn't really black. Her mom is from India. I'm tired of black men not marrying black women.
- So I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden, because trump at least had the good sense to marry a white woman, even if she's a Russian spy.
I think the idea that Harris could cost Biden the election is pretty far fetched.
|
|
|
Post by northbruin40 on Jul 28, 2020 10:32:26 GMT -8
How does the logic to that play out? Voter: - I like Joe Biden. I'm going to vote for him instead of trump?
- But he picked Harris as his VP. I don't like her because maybe she supported programs I disagree with when she was DA or AG.
- So I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden after all. I'll either vote for trump or just stay home.
Or... Voter: - I don't know if I should vote for trump or Joe Biden.
- I know trump is a racist and really hates Black Lives Matter, and still thinks the Central Park Five should have got the death penalty.
- And I'm not sure, but Pence seems to almost as big a racist as trump.
- Joe Biden, on the other had, was Barack Obama's hand picked right hand man.
- But Kamala Harris said he support busing back in the day, so he might be a racist too.
- But what really gets my goat is he picked Harris to be his VP.
- So I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden. I'll either vote for proven racist or just stay home.
Or is it just as simple as... Voter: - Kamala Harris isn't really black. Her mom is from India. I'm tired of black men not marrying black women.
- So I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden, because trump at least had the good sense to marry a white woman, even if she's a Russian spy.
I think the idea that Harris could cost Biden the election is pretty far fetched.
Yeah, It's important to realize the average voter doesn't overthink things. Political analysis is best when if focuses on the simple. Trump won the the 2016 Republican primary over many others not because he wrote more flowery essays, but because he concentrated on the simple gut urges of Republican primary voters.
|
|
|
Post by grant73 on Jul 28, 2020 11:51:13 GMT -8
-- " ... claims that Harris polls very poorly among minorities..." --
The left thought she'd be a lefty laissez-faire DA in Frisco. She followed the law as a tough prosecutor. They still hoped she'd be "their" ultra-progressive AG in Sacramento. She followed the law. As a legislator in Washington she was hardly a right-winger; ("nor a lefty,: they decry). Then there is the fact that by birth she's not "all black." Big F-ing deal.
I will be happy with Kamala, Stacy or Susan. But I think Kamala is the most ready to be president. As to 2024, that depends on things we can't forsee, INCLUDING how she does as a VP that's more than the Senate tie-breaker. She's got the work ethic and personality and aggresivness to put herself into good causes. Michele, believe it or not, is WHO MY DEPLORABLE FRIENDS WANTED AS CANDIDATE, lol. Swear to God. I have the emails!
Find me a black poll respondent who won't go to the polls because of Kamala, and I will point to the kind of voter who cost us Michigan, Wisconsin and some others in 2016. Hope they like Trump for another 4 years. (Right ...!)
|
|
bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
|
Post by bobinmd on Jul 28, 2020 12:12:10 GMT -8
I may be simplistic with this but I like Tammy Baldwin. I believe it helps with Wisconsin. We need to get the upper Midwest back. I was originally for Klobuchar but that got derailed.
|
|
bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
|
Post by bobinmd on Jul 28, 2020 12:21:20 GMT -8
I may be simplistic with this but I like Tammy Baldwin. I believe it helps with Wisconsin. We need to get the upper Midwest back. I was originally for Klobuchar but that got derailed.
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 28, 2020 16:03:44 GMT -8
As of late June: "In the latest Yahoo News!/YouGov poll, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren leads the veepstakes overall. When asked “Of the following people, who do you think Joe Biden should pick as his running mate?”, 30 percent selected Warren, with Harris in second at 24 percent. "But among black voters, Harris led with 25 percent, and Warren came in fourth at 15 percent. Former Georgia legislator Stacey Abrams (22%) and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (16%) each garnered more support than Warren. "That’s a reversal from a May poll in which Warren led on the question with black voters at 41 percent, and Harris trailed distantly with 23 percent. And since April, Harris’ favorability among black voters has surged from 40 percent to 52 percent in YouGov’s tracking poll. Source
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 28, 2020 16:10:50 GMT -8
This is more recent: Warren (23%) leads Harris (14%) by 9 points among Undecided people of color; this lead is consistent among Black and Latinx Undecided voters -Undecided Black voters: Warren leads (22%) followed by Tammy Duckworth (18%), and Kamala Harris (14%) -Undecided Latinx voters: Warren leads (24%) followed by Gina Raimondo (12%), and Kamala Harris (11%) -Undecided White voters: Warren leads (25%) followed by Kamala Harris (17%), and Susan Rice (11%) Source
|
|
|
Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 28, 2020 18:57:21 GMT -8
This is more recent: Warren (23%) leads Harris (14%) by 9 points among Undecided people of color; this lead is consistent among Black and Latinx Undecided voters -Undecided Black voters: Warren leads (22%) followed by Tammy Duckworth (18%), and Kamala Harris (14%) -Undecided Latinx voters: Warren leads (24%) followed by Gina Raimondo (12%), and Kamala Harris (11%) -Undecided White voters: Warren leads (25%) followed by Kamala Harris (17%), and Susan Rice (11%) SourceThe premise of that Avalanche poll is weird. It purports to be about undecided voters but excludes trump supporters. So are the undecideds truly undecided, or Biden leaners, or are there trump leaners mixed in? And what is the voters logic supposed to be here? I'm not sure if I'm going to vote for Biden or trump, but if Biden selects Warren, I'll vote for him? Frankly, that's ridiculous. Not surprisingly, I checked Avalanche in 538's pollster ratings and they're not even listed.
|
|
|
Post by mhbruin on Jul 29, 2020 7:14:56 GMT -8
It seems pretty clear? "You haven't decided? Who would you like to see Biden pick?"
They aren't asking it it will swing their vote.
|
|
|
Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 29, 2020 9:55:06 GMT -8
It seems pretty clear? "You haven't decided? Who would you like to see Biden pick?" They aren't asking it it will swing their vote. The entire premise that a voter who hasn't decided between Biden and trump would have a meaningful opinion on who Biden should pick for his VP is fundamentally flawed on so many levels it boggles the mind.
|
|