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Post by blindness on Apr 25, 2020 8:18:43 GMT -8
We have heard of successive waves but I don't think any case of a person going through the infection twice has been mentioned.
I know, absence of evidence is not evidence for absence but sometime the fact that the dog has not barked yet might mean something.
We'll have to wait and see.
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DrJ
Contributing Member
Posts: 188
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Post by DrJ on Apr 25, 2020 8:42:02 GMT -8
1less mentioned a Korean study in the thread in COVID 19 testing below. S Korea identified patients who had been infected and recovered but were reinfected. Not in huge numbers and no details on the cases, but it is a possibility.
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Post by less1brain on Apr 25, 2020 11:20:28 GMT -8
South Korea has identified 163 cases of apparent reinfection (as of last Saturday; it was 78 the Saturday before that).
All of these people are experiencing "mild symptoms," in about 12% of cases worse than with the "first" infection.
South Korea's tests have a very low percentage for false negatives or false positives, so while those explanations haven't been ruled out, they seem unlikely.
Also, since their tests seek out signs of RNA strands rather than antibodies, it's possible that these "new" cases are just the tests showing strands of RNA that were missed on the initial tests that showed these people were no longer infected... though most scientists seem very skeptical of this explanation as well.
The US and South Korea, among other countries, are trying to determine what concentration of RNA strands from the dead virus must exist in the human body to enable a reinfected person to infect someone else, but these studies will take months and, so far, there's no evidence of anyone getting infected by someone who became reinfected. Of course, no evidence doesn't mean it hasn't happened, but let's hope it hasn't and can't.
The PRC has reported reinfections and is pursuing ongoing studies to analyze those cases. But why would anyone believe them at this point?
In Germany, the government discussed issuing people with "immunity cards" if they tested positive for antibodies, under the theory that with respect to past coronaviruses immunity was conferred by infection against reinfection for between 12-24 months (such as with SARS-1 and MERS). The government backed off on that plan when scientists pointed out that no one actually knows how long any immunity will last with this virus (which is incredibly more infectious via human to human transmission compared to SARS-1 and MERS). That's the horror of Covid-19: It combines the rapid transmission method of the common cold with the deadly respiratory symptoms of SARS-1 and MERS (virtually all cases of those Covids involved animal to human transmission).
Here, in the US, we haven't even tested 2% of the population (329 million population). Germany, with a population of about 83 million, has now tested about 25 million people, most in the last 3 weeks (approximately 7% of persons tested have been infected). The US was up to about 146,000 tests per day last week and hopefully will reach 500,000 per day by May 15 (right now, 20% of all persons tested in the US have shown positive, but given the rates in other countries it's highly likely that the rate of infection will drop dramatically as more tests are done here). Sandoz issued a test with a 14.8% false negative rate, but it's supposed to be fixing it after doctors at UCSF pointed this out.
As "herd immunity," a favorite term used by my Fox friends, requires 60% of a population to be infected, that won't happen here or anywhere else without millions dying to achieve that "goal."
The keys to controlling the pandemic and re-opening the economy are 1) massive testing, 2) massive contact tracing, 3) selective and timely quarantines and 4) convincing people they can't wait for a vaccine (since thousands of efforts for over a century have failed to produce any vaccine effective against a coronavirus) to resume "normal life," hopefully with frequent washing of hands and use of disinfectants and sick people wearing masks in public (or when with family members) as a standard lifestyle practice, as is done in many other countries.
It's disappointing when I hear friends who watch Fox News tell me that Dr. Phil (who's not a medical doctor; he has a doctorate in clinical psychology but isn't licensed to practice) told them that since 36,000 people die every year in swimming pools and no one wants the economy "shut down" over that, it's ridiculous for people to respond to the virus "with hysteria." Of course, only about 3,500 people on average die in swimming pools every year, but more importantly I've never heard of a swimming pool infecting people with drowning (I have an image now of Dr. J having to go to his swimming pool every day to fish out the dead bodies of his neighbors who were infected by his pool).
Other Fox friends of mine told me that Laura Ingraham (spelling?) and Rudy Guliani were recently mocking Governor Cuomo's plans for massive contact tracing by pointing out that no such thing is done for cancer or coronary artery disease... again, neither is infectious. Cancer and CAD, I mean. Clearly, Ingraham and Guliani are highly infectious and more funding should go to developing a vaccine against them.
I told one of these friends of a recent poll that showed that Fox News viewers who trusted Sean Hannity over Tucker Carlson had been infected 30% more often and had died 28% more often than those who trusted Carlson over Hannity. My friend assured me that he trusted Carlson over Hannity.
I suppose we must take satisfaction where we can find it in this world...
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Post by copyboy on Apr 25, 2020 11:35:38 GMT -8
Good info. Sobering as hell, but good info.
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Post by blindness on Apr 25, 2020 11:38:20 GMT -8
Thanks guys. Sounds inconclusive to some extent but with suggestion that if reinfection is possible, the second time is milder - - which makes a vaccine based solution at least viable at this point. I'll take that as my shot of optimism for the day.
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hasben
Resident Member
Posts: 1,021
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Post by hasben on Apr 26, 2020 8:42:48 GMT -8
Thanks guys. Sounds inconclusive to some extent but with suggestion that if reinfection is possible, the second time is milder - - which makes a vaccine based solution at least viable at this point. I'll take that as my shot of optimism for the day. Yes, it will be many months before we know exactly what is occurring with reinfections. I suspect it will turn out to behave like the common cold so no long-term protection. Blind, as I said in another thread I'd pin my hopes on a treatment protocol that lowers the death rate to something resembling the regular flu. I do think that's possible. A vaccine is little more than a pipe dream as we've never been able to develop an effective cv vaccine. If it is ever developed it will be years away and much too late.
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Post by Floppy Johnson on Apr 26, 2020 11:11:46 GMT -8
Yes, it will be many months before we know exactly what is occurring with reinfections. I suspect it will turn out to behave like the common cold so no long-term protection. Blind, as I said in another thread I'd pin my hopes on a treatment protocol that lowers the death rate to something resembling the regular flu. I do think that's possible. A vaccine is little more than a pipe dream as we've never been able to develop an effective cv vaccine. If it is ever developed it will be years away and much too late. "much too late." To pick a nit, there is no "much too late" with regard to an effective vaccine. It will be too late for you, me, most of the denizens of this board. But, hopefully, not for our kids, or grandkids.
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Post by Floppy Johnson on Apr 26, 2020 11:28:59 GMT -8
and sick people wearing masks in public (or when with family members) as a standard lifestyle practice, as is done in many other countries. I'm a broken record. Masking up is the least intrusive tool we have in the tool box. People wearing masks provides by far the most bang for our buck (and I'm using the term euphemistically - I'm not just talking about the cost of a mask). It should be required in public for the foreseeable future.
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hasben
Resident Member
Posts: 1,021
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Post by hasben on Apr 26, 2020 12:35:39 GMT -8
"much too late." To pick a nit, there is no "much too late" with regard to an effective vaccine. It will be too late for you, me, most of the denizens of this board. But, hopefully, not for our kids, or grandkids. good point. But even an "effective" vaccine I predict will be no better than the annual flu shot 16-60% effective, maybe less. Not trying to be a downer but my hopes are one of these off label drugs will have good results.
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