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Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 11, 2020 14:26:14 GMT -8
Texas doesn’t have registration by political party. Voters can choose party ballots at their polling place. In 2018, Republican candidates for the US House received 50.4% of the votes to 47% for Democrats. But in the Texas State House, the margin was 52.5% to 46.5% for the GOP. This gave Republicans 23 seats (64%) in the US House of Representatives to 13 for Democrats. Somewhat remarkably, the state legislature is somewhat closer. The Texas House is made up of 83 Republicans (55%) and 67 Democrats. The state Senate however, looks more like the US House, 19 Republicans (63%) to 11 Democrats. Back in the US House, 9 of the Texas seats Republicans won in 2018 were by margins of 10% or less; and two of those were by 5% or less. The Texas Tribune (see link below) labels 10 of the 2018 elections “competitive” and notes that was a dramatic increase from just one in 2016. Fifteen state Senators were elected in 2018. Four of those elections were decided by 10% or less, and two of those by 5% or less. Sixteen state Senate seats will be contested in 2020, nine held by Republicans and 7 by Democrats. Flipping the state Senate seems like a tall order, but as with the US House, races have been getting more competitive over time; there was just one race decided by less than 10 points in 2012, two in 2014, three in 2016, and five in 2018, per the Tribune’s metrics. In the state House, 8 elections were decided by less than 5% in 2018. The Tribune calls 31 of the seats competitive. The Texas House is definitely up for grabs in 2020. Link: Is Texas really going purple? |
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 12, 2020 12:50:37 GMT -8
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 12, 2020 15:43:15 GMT -8
Texas is only a swing state in a blue wave election. It clearly is changing, but all those other races the author mentions are far less important than the Presidency. Biden needs to focus on Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona.
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Post by Born2BBruin on Jul 12, 2020 16:26:52 GMT -8
Texas is only a swing state in a blue wave election. It clearly is changing, but all those other races the author mentions are far less important than the Presidency. Biden needs to focus on Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona. The point is the impact the presidential election could have on down ballot races, for the US House, and the Texas House; which is big. |
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jul 12, 2020 21:39:49 GMT -8
FWIW, this poll says Biden is leading Trump by 5 in Texas. This may not be a reputable poll, but Texas is supposed to be the GOP's California. It should be under the Solid column. |
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 13, 2020 6:01:15 GMT -8
Winning the Presidency is the appetizer, the main course, and dessert. Winning down-ballot races in Texas is the after-dinner mint. Nice, but you won't go hungry without it. The Presidency won't be won in Texas. Biden can't let shiny objects distract him from the goal. |
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Post by northbruin40 on Jul 13, 2020 8:21:30 GMT -8
FWIW, this poll says Biden is leading Trump by 5 in Texas. This may not be a reputable poll, but Texas is supposed to be the GOP's California. It should be under the Solid column. Last 5 Presidential elections Republican margin for Texas 2000 21.32 2004 22.87 2008 11.77 2012 15.79 2016 8.99 The superhuge margins were really when W was on the ballot. Dems improved by 6.8% between 2012 and 2016 even thought the national election wasn't more Dem-friendly. If you figure another 6.8% change (anyone know the change for the 2014 to 2018 Congressional elections) the margin changes to 2.19%, which isn't so different than recent polls. OK, so I found the Congressional House election conglomerate 2008 16.2
2010 33.8
2012 19.3
2014 27.2
2016 20.1
2018 3.4
20
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Post by mhbruin on Jul 13, 2020 12:57:38 GMT -8
Then again, there is a reason to expand the map.
>>But veteran Democratic strategist Paul Begala made the observation that haunts every Democrat, from lawmakers to strategists to voters alike. This year, he said, it may be more important than ever to run up the scoreboard on the opposition.
>>"For the first time in American history there’s a legitimate concern that the incumbent president will not surrender power,” Begala noted.
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jul 13, 2020 18:25:18 GMT -8
>>"For the first time in American history there’s a legitimate concern that the incumbent president will not surrender power,” Begala noted. What if all Republican incumbent losers at all levels across the nation refuse to leave in solidarity with Trump? What do we do with too many people to escort out? |
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dsc
Resident Member
Posts: 759
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Post by dsc on Jul 13, 2020 21:38:50 GMT -8
NorthBruin40's post got me to look up Democrat margins in California since 1988 which was the first presidential election I got to cast a ballot as a newly minted American. | 1988 | -3.6% | | 1992 | 13.4%
| 1996
| 12.9% | | 2000 | 12.8%
| | 2004 | 9.95%
| | 2008 | 24.06%
| | 2012 | 23.12%
| | 2016 | 30.11%
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I remember thinking in 2004 as a Republican that the GOP was trending up (from 92 to 2004) in California and feeling perplexed about the party's lack of investment in the state. Cutting down the margin from 13.4 to 9.95 is encouraging, no? Of course the bottom fell out for the GOP just four years later in 2008. |
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bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
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Post by bobinmd on Jul 15, 2020 5:25:41 GMT -8
Texas is only a swing state in a blue wave election. It clearly is changing, but all those other races the author mentions are far less important than the Presidency. Biden needs to focus on Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona. |
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bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
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Post by bobinmd on Jul 15, 2020 5:27:53 GMT -8
I can see all those states except Arizona going Biden.
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Post by blublood on Jul 15, 2020 6:23:14 GMT -8
Arizona: The betting this morning on PredictIt has Arizona 63 cents Dem, 37 cents GOP.
You can get in cheap.
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bobinmd
Contributing Member
Posts: 51
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Post by bobinmd on Jul 15, 2020 7:11:59 GMT -8
Wow. I guess I’m not so informed.
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Post by northbruin40 on Jul 15, 2020 8:18:01 GMT -8
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